Going by WARP(can't find 2007 #s),
Santana
2004-10.9
2005-9.4
2006-9.9
Average-10.07
Arod
2004-7.9
2005-10.3
2006-6.0
Average-8.07
So on average, Santana will get you 10 more wins than the average pitcher and Arod will contribute to 8 more wins than the average 3B.
Not to mention Santana is younger, cheaper and can pitch 2 of 5 or 3 of 7 in the playoffs.
Posted by jaydh:
Going by WARP(can't find 2007 #s),
Santana
2004-10.9
2005-9.4
2006-9.9
Average-10.07
Arod
2004-7.9
2005-10.3
2006-6.0
Average-8.07
So on average, Santana will get you 10 more wins than the average pitcher and Arod will contribute to 8 more wins than the average 3B.
like i said, you have to factor in also the loss of the talent going back to the Twins in the deal... they were asking for Hughes AND Kennedy & then the Yanks would've had to pay him on the crazy extension... factor all that in & the Yankees were well w/in their reason not to make the deal.
Posted by jaydh:
Not to mention Santana is younger, cheaper and can pitch 2 of 5 or 3 of 7 in the playoffs.
Johan is 4 years younger than ARod, but usually starting pitchers don't have the productive longevity that positional players do... ARod could probably play well into his 40's w/the way he keeps himself in shape... Johan works hard to stay in shape too, but the potential for a season threatening injury is much higher for pitchers.
no one's arguing why Johan is a good value at the dollars he's being signed to as much as the length of the contract the Muts are investing into it, along w/the fact that there's no possible way anyone can say that he's worth more than twice what ARod is.
[Edited by - TMS on 02-02-2008 2:47 PM]
Posted by islesfan:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:
If A-Rod is worth $300 mil, Santana is worth about $700 mill
i'd debate you over this but i can already see it's gonna lead absolutely nowhere.
If the Twins had offered you Santana for A-Rod, would you have said yes?
Hell no. Why would you trade an MVP candidate who has a chance to change 150-160 games, in a positive way, for any pitcher, who in a great year will only help you win 20-30 games?
Is your goal to win regular season games (in which case you must be thrilled with the past 7 seasons) or playoff series?
Posted by TMS:
it's not a common misconception, the fact of the matter is Johan contributes to only maybe 30 games during the course of a season while ARod can contribute to a potential 162... the difference isn't even close... your use of percentage estimations doesn't prove anything, because if Johan only contributes to 50% of the ~30 games he's going to start, while ARod only contributes to 10% of the ~160 games he's going to, then the numbers still average out to be about the same in terms of overall contributing factor... the fact of the matter is that ARod will have many more opportunities to help his team win over the course of the season than Johan would, it's not even debateable.
there was a statistical study done last year in a news article i read that showed how much of an impact ARod's production netted in terms of Wins & Losses... i wish i could find it right now, but to summarize it ended up revealing that without his bat the Yankees would have lost 5-6 more games last year & may have missed out on the playoffs altogether... like i said, take his bat out of the lineup & add Johan's arm to the rotation & you likely get the same result in the extra amount of games you'll win... that said, how does anyone figure the best starting pitcher in the game to be more than twice the value of the top positional player? that's a ludicrous exaggeration that's obviously borne out of personal dislike for the guy.
i realize the difference Johan can make in a postseason series... i've stated that case plenty of times duing the trade for Johan discussion... that still doesn't justify the idea that he's worth that much more dollar wise.
The common misconception is to find position players much more valuable than starting pitching, when we all know well and good that the teams with the best starting pitching generally win in the playoffs. Obviously, Bonn was exaggerating with his 700-300 figures (I assume). I would consider their impacts about equal during regular season, which was the main point. However, at playoff time, I consider starters generally more important, since they have their starts on shorter rest (thus taking a higher percentage of the impact) and a single game can change the entire series.
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by islesfan:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:
If A-Rod is worth $300 mil, Santana is worth about $700 mill
i'd debate you over this but i can already see it's gonna lead absolutely nowhere.
If the Twins had offered you Santana for A-Rod, would you have said yes?
Hell no. Why would you trade an MVP candidate who has a chance to change 150-160 games, in a positive way, for any pitcher, who in a great year will only help you win 20-30 games?
Is your goal to win regular season games (in which case you must be thrilled with the past 7 seasons) or playoff series?
Likewise. Getting Santana for A-Rod is a no brainer for me. If A-Rod had done something in the playoffs, it's a lot tougher. But he hasn't. Santana can win you a playoff series. A-Rod has come up lame multiple seasons in a row. No brainer.
not sure how many playoff series Santana has won for the Twins... can someone tell me?
look, i get the point that pitching wins in the playoffs over hitting... that's an obvious point that every baseball fan is aware of... i've said many times in the past that Johan's value to a team in the playoffs is the reason why i make the trade for him... i've said i'd be willing to give up Wang & Kennedy to do it... i even said i might even be willing to give up Wang & Hughes... i've said all this because i am well aware of Johan's ability & value... that said i completely understand why the Yankees didn't make this trade... & i also am aware that w/o ARod this team likely doesn't even make the playoffs last season, so there you go... just as Johan can win a playoff series for you with 2 big starts, ARod can also win one for you with a couple big hits... neither have really done so yet for their respective ballclubs... both have the ability to do so... who would i feel more confident with in the postseason? Johan no doubt, & like i said, i'd have a really hard time choosing which guy i'd rather have because of that factor alone, but let's stop with the ridiculous hyperboles everytime we're trying to make a point here & deal in the real world, shall we?
[Edited by - TMS on 02-03-2008 10:48 AM]
The common misconception is to find position players much more valuable than starting pitching, when we all know well and good that the teams with the best starting pitching generally win in the playoffs. Obviously, Bonn was exaggerating with his 700-300 figures (I assume).
Yes and no. I do think Johan is at least twice as valuable as A-Rod to a team whose goal is to win the world series. I don't think A-Rod's worth $300 mil, though, and Johan wouldn't be worth $700 mil. I'd keep the ratios about the same, though.
don't worry Bonn, we'll be fine after we sign Mark Texeiria & CC Sabathia next season... can't wait to hear majorleads complain about competitive balance when that happens.
Posted by TMS:
don't worry Bonn, we'll be fine after we sign Mark Texeiria & CC Sabathia next season... can't wait to hear majorleads complain about competitive balance when that happens.
Great; now I get to enjoy watching Boston repeat this year
And I'll just add that CC isn't close to the pitcher that Santana is
how isn't he even close?
he led the league in ERA last season & helped the Tribe eliminate us in the ALDS last year, won the Cy Young, a year younger than Johan at 27 years old & throws GAS from the left side w/a nasty slider... he's a Randy Johnson style pitcher & can dominate any postseason series the same way Johan can... that guy is a legit ace... he may not be the best pitcher in the game like Johan but he's right up there.
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
don't worry Bonn, we'll be fine after we sign Mark Texeiria & CC Sabathia next season... can't wait to hear majorleads complain about competitive balance when that happens.
Great; now I get to enjoy watching Boston repeat this year
yeah, well that's why you play the games... the Giants beating the Pats should've proved that to you in spades
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
don't worry Bonn, we'll be fine after we sign Mark Texeiria & CC Sabathia next season... can't wait to hear majorleads complain about competitive balance when that happens.
Great; now I get to enjoy watching Boston repeat this year
The Yankees were just as good as Boston last year. They just got off to a really bad start. Over the 2nd half the Yankees were the superior team. Why do people think that it's so cut and dry? Boston deserve to be favorites but the Yankees are right there.
Posted by islesfan:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
don't worry Bonn, we'll be fine after we sign Mark Texeiria & CC Sabathia next season... can't wait to hear majorleads complain about competitive balance when that happens.
Great; now I get to enjoy watching Boston repeat this year
The Yankees were just as good as Boston last year. They just got off to a really bad start. Over the 2nd half the Yankees were the superior team. Why do people think that it's so cut and dry? Boston deserve to be favorites but the Yankees are right there.
It's not cut and dry, but I'd still say Boston is the favorite and would say the odds are in their favor.
Posted by TMS:
how isn't he even close?
he led the league in ERA last season & helped the Tribe eliminate us in the ALDS last year, won the Cy Young, a year younger than Johan at 27 years old & throws GAS from the left side w/a nasty slider... he's a Randy Johnson style pitcher & can dominate any postseason series the same way Johan can... that guy is a legit ace... he may not be the best pitcher in the game like Johan but he's right up there.
Sabathia's ERA has been from the low 3s to the low 4s (depending on the season). Johan's been from the mid 2s to low 3s and is arguably the best pitcher in baseball.
Posted by TMS:
don't worry Bonn, we'll be fine after we sign Mark Texeiria & CC Sabathia next season... can't wait to hear majorleads complain about competitive balance when that happens.
If it were up to me, there would be a salary cap. A baseball season is all about ups and downs and when you steamroll your way through like the Yankees did for 10 years, that is boring to me. Now with the Mets getting Santana, I have to hope that the National League as a whole improves or it's going to be one boring regular season. I do know the D-Backs have a great up and coming team, the Dodgers should be much improved and Rockies are now better. Hopefully the Phillies and Braves play well too.
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
how isn't he even close?
he led the league in ERA last season & helped the Tribe eliminate us in the ALDS last year, won the Cy Young, a year younger than Johan at 27 years old & throws GAS from the left side w/a nasty slider... he's a Randy Johnson style pitcher & can dominate any postseason series the same way Johan can... that guy is a legit ace... he may not be the best pitcher in the game like Johan but he's right up there.
Sabathia's ERA has been from the low 3s to the low 4s (depending on the season). Johan's been from the mid 2s to low 3s and is arguably the best pitcher in baseball.
u gotta stop w/the doomsday mentality here... ur beginning to sound like a Mets fan... our team's gonna be fine going into the future.
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
how isn't he even close?
he led the league in ERA last season & helped the Tribe eliminate us in the ALDS last year, won the Cy Young, a year younger than Johan at 27 years old & throws GAS from the left side w/a nasty slider... he's a Randy Johnson style pitcher & can dominate any postseason series the same way Johan can... that guy is a legit ace... he may not be the best pitcher in the game like Johan but he's right up there.
Sabathia's ERA has been from the low 3s to the low 4s (depending on the season). Johan's been from the mid 2s to low 3s and is arguably the best pitcher in baseball.
u gotta stop w/the doomsday mentality here... ur beginning to sound like a Mets fan... our team's gonna be fine going into the future.
You've been telling me that for the past 7 years. The Yankees will be a 90+ win team consistent--no doubt. But Boston is simply a better run franchise. They have an owner with a more stable plan (and who is more mentally stable) than any of the Steinbrenners.
[Edited by - bonn1997 on 02-05-2008 1:40 PM]
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
how isn't he even close?
he led the league in ERA last season & helped the Tribe eliminate us in the ALDS last year, won the Cy Young, a year younger than Johan at 27 years old & throws GAS from the left side w/a nasty slider... he's a Randy Johnson style pitcher & can dominate any postseason series the same way Johan can... that guy is a legit ace... he may not be the best pitcher in the game like Johan but he's right up there.
Sabathia's ERA has been from the low 3s to the low 4s (depending on the season). Johan's been from the mid 2s to low 3s and is arguably the best pitcher in baseball.
u gotta stop w/the doomsday mentality here... ur beginning to sound like a Mets fan... our team's gonna be fine going into the future.
You've been telling me that for the past 7 years. The Yankees will be a 90+ win team consistent--no doubt. But Boston is simply a better run franchise. They have an owner with a more stable plan (and who is more mentally stable) than any of the Steinbrenners.
[Edited by - bonn1997 on 02-05-2008 1:40 PM]
Actually you're the one downgrading the Yankees for sticking to their stable plan of keeping their good, young and affordable pitchers instead of trading them for another player with a ridiculous contract. What you're promoting is the same thing that's been going on over the last 7 years. Add a high priced player at the expense of youth.
