Any of you market mavens have any suggestions? I don't see how we get out of this without at least a mini-crash of some kind. There are similarities to 2008 when congress did not want to pass TARP. The market tanked and congress did a 180. Not before our portfolios got whacked, however.
So, what's a stock investor to do? Move everything into cash, or are there some decent short-vehicles one could use to lock things in at current values?
BasketballJones wrote:Any of you market mavens have any suggestions? I don't see how we get out of this without at least a mini-crash of some kind. There are similarities to 2008 when congress did not want to pass TARP. The market tanked and congress did a 180. Not before our portfolios got whacked, however.So, what's a stock investor to do? Move everything into cash, or are there some decent short-vehicles one could use to lock things in at current values?
the best way to hedge would be hold cash in a different currency or commodities like gold, silver, etc.
Shut down happend twice under clinton. over 20 days I recall. No big deal.
Don't believe we go into default either. Twice the deadline has been extended. Its treas secretary to make a principle and interest payment and he can.
Im not buying the hype.
Looking for that one stock? Thas briggys job.
Maybe he can "look smart" on one for you. Me, I've been 39% in cash for two months now and thinking its just a good time to buy some nice cheap banks. Gotta be patient.
Long term don't believe we are gonna be china's bitch. Think its like a jet rocket on the back of a model "t". Can't turn it. US econ is very resilient. Don't cry cuz we don't make T-shirts here anymore. We make Chips, Cars, Jet, and lots of high tech stuff.
Im not addressing unemployment and don't hammer me for it. IM looking at whats working and the M&A activity is very high right now and companies are making a lot of money. Media is focused on housing, but look at consumption and income levels. They climbing.
Investing is not easy but its not just trading either. trading is a different animal altogether and Im not very good at it. Look at IGOI, I did more than double but that shit was on a 5x tear and its long term thesis is very good then the traders whran it the hell up left the building. Im an investor. I build not trade. Im not complaining a bit. Briggs im sure will get upset with me as he usually does when he thinks im calling him out, and I don't. I just like to know when he leaves the building.
I don't "look smart" on that one, but it happens.
Jones, Im just not buying the media hype its the end of the world.
Nalod wrote:Shut down happend twice under clinton. over 20 days I recall. No big deal.Don't believe we go into default either. Twice the deadline has been extended. Its treas secretary to make a principle and interest payment and he can.
Im not buying the hype.
Looking for that one stock? Thas briggys job.
Maybe he can "look smart" on one for you. Me, I've been 39% in cash for two months now and thinking its just a good time to buy some nice cheap banks. Gotta be patient.
Long term don't believe we are gonna be china's bitch. Think its like a jet rocket on the back of a model "t". Can't turn it. US econ is very resilient. Don't cry cuz we don't make T-shirts here anymore. We make Chips, Cars, Jet, and lots of high tech stuff.
Im not addressing unemployment and don't hammer me for it. IM looking at whats working and the M&A activity is very high right now and companies are making a lot of money. Media is focused on housing, but look at consumption and income levels. They climbing.
Investing is not easy but its not just trading either. trading is a different animal altogether and Im not very good at it. Look at IGOI, I did more than double but that shit was on a 5x tear and its long term thesis is very good then the traders whran it the hell up left the building. Im an investor. I build not trade. Im not complaining a bit. Briggs im sure will get upset with me as he usually does when he thinks im calling him out, and I don't. I just like to know when he leaves the building.
I don't "look smart" on that one, but it happens.
Jones, Im just not buying the media hype its the end of the world.
Thanks for the insight. I tend to be disciplined. I held tight in 2008 and even added to my positions in late '08 early '09. I've got a mix of index funds and value picks + the occasional BRIGGS flyer. I'm sitting on a bunch of cash right now, waiting to see how things pan out. I admit the default thing has me nervous. I recall that congress failed to pass the Tarp legislation in '08 and that's when the market really tanked, so they had to come back and pass it quick.
If they can't come up with a deal soon, I'm looking for a similar scenario where congress has to rush back to pass something quickly. I don't think it's the same as the 90's shutdowns. We were in better shape back then, and the shutdowns weren't brought about by a failure to raise the debt limit. Is Moodys "hyping" anything when they say they might lower the US credit rating?
Moodys is crap. Not happy these ass clowns who miss every debacle is making our coutry its bitch.
Not big on index funds as the market makes plenty of mistakes and index reflect it.
Freaking BAC is too cheap to pass up here.
Its not gonna 5 bang here, but its about the long term.
If your gonna index, is it for a "trade" and if so, do you buy leveraged offerings?
Nalod wrote:Moodys is crap. Not happy these ass clowns who miss every debacle is making our coutry its bitch.Not big on index funds as the market makes plenty of mistakes and index reflect it.
Freaking BAC is too cheap to pass up here.
Its not gonna 5 bang here, but its about the long term.
If your gonna index, is it for a "trade" and if so, do you buy leveraged offerings?
What makes you so sure BAC is cheap here?
I am not a fan and if there is going to be another big bank collapse in this country I would put them at the top of the list.
Nalod wrote:Moodys is crap. Not happy these ass clowns who miss every debacle is making our coutry its bitch.Not big on index funds as the market makes plenty of mistakes and index reflect it.
Freaking BAC is too cheap to pass up here.
Its not gonna 5 bang here, but its about the long term.
If your gonna index, is it for a "trade" and if so, do you buy leveraged offerings?
No, I hold the index funds. I chose index to avoid "manager risk" - I didn't want to try to keep up with and make decisions regarding management changes at managed funds. I'm also not fully confident in my stock picking ability to want to manage a whole portfolio of individual stocks. The index funds haven't hurt me - the small, mid-cap & emerging market funds have done well. (Obviously I'm definitely not getting BRIGGS-like returns.)
I know Briggs has come and go over the years, dude has mentioned some health issues from time to time and do hope he is just "locked out" and nothing more.
Not much to talk about Hoopwise but he is like family on the UK.
I think indexing is a good idea in general, but I end up with 50% of my portfolio in gold/silver and about 30% cash. I have some small positions in leveraged fundsthat are reverse of the index. I barely ever buy individual stocks unless they are tech or companies that I know like Apple, Ebay, PCLN etc. Most of my investing is commodities and ETF based. And it is with the general economic direction of the country in mind. I don't beleive in betting my money on micro analysis however appetizing it may look.
I track my investments religiously on a transactiom by transaction basis. Because of the commodities I have very low volatility (3 year Beta about 0.2). I am alos at about 9% annualized return for a three year period including the 2009 meltdown. The S&P is at about 1.7% over the same time. I missed the bus on silver because I didn't pay attention to the market for 2-3 months because of work related stress and moving etc. Otherwise I would have had better YTD performance.
I took my 401k out of the market just in case. I don't want to see it lose substantial value.
JesseDark wrote:I took my 401k out of the market just in case. I don't want to see it lose substantial value.
I would suggest putting it into a commodity... if US debt loses it AAA rating, then the currency will lose value. It's not just the value of equities you have to worry against, it's the value of the currency. So, if it costs more to buy aluminum (or whatever) you've avoided the potential devaluation
I believe there will be a deal but they sure are dragging this out till the last minute and making it hard to tell what will happen.
I think they are playing Russian roulette with the debt rating and economy and it's not good.
