dk7th wrote:more good material to measure players actual value to their respective teams--http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/107408...
there was another article from a while back about gallinari that also looked at this statistic but is called RAPM there
http://www.denverstiffs.com/2013/1/12/38...
Thanks dk. Will take a look and read the analysis.
The first things that jumps out at me was that Iggy was rated ahead of Durant. That is a big red flag but I will read more ...
I still think that teams have so much proprietary info in regards to stats that it would melt the mind. I guess the real issues are can they harness it and are the entire FO and coaching staff are on board with its use.
Also of note:
#3 PG in the league: Patrick Beverly
#29: Jeremy Lin
And the absolute death knell to this statistical analysis:
At #31, AND NOT LAST: Raymond Felton!
There are two whole pages of PG's behind Ray!
The UK will never stand for this!
Go to the below page and sort by Win Shares and you would probably get the closest advanced stat to reality (there will always be anomalies with every stat)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leag...Top 20:
Rk Player WS ▾
1 Kevin Durant 18.4
2 LeBron James 15.2
3 Kevin Love 13.8
4 Stephen Curry 12.3
5 Blake Griffin 11.8
6 James Harden 11.7
7 Chris Paul 11.7
8 DeAndre Jordan 10.8
9 Kyle Lowry 10.8
10 Paul George 10.6
11 Anthony Davis 10.5
12 Joakim Noah 10.4
13 Carmelo Anthony 10.3
14 Goran Dragic 10.2
15 Dirk Nowitzki 10.2
16 Andre Drummond 9.2
17 Damian Lillard 9.2
18 Robin Lopez 9
19 Serge Ibaka 8.8
20 DeMar DeRozan 8.5
mreinman wrote:Go to the below page and sort by Win Shares and you would probably get the closest advanced stat to reality (there will always be anomalies with every stat)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leag...Top 20:
Rk Player WS ▾
1 Kevin Durant 18.4
2 LeBron James 15.2
3 Kevin Love 13.8
4 Stephen Curry 12.3
5 Blake Griffin 11.8
6 James Harden 11.7
7 Chris Paul 11.7
8 DeAndre Jordan 10.8
9 Kyle Lowry 10.8
10 Paul George 10.6
11 Anthony Davis 10.5
12 Joakim Noah 10.4
13 Carmelo Anthony 10.3
14 Goran Dragic 10.2
15 Dirk Nowitzki 10.2
16 Andre Drummond 9.2
17 Damian Lillard 9.2
18 Robin Lopez 9
19 Serge Ibaka 8.8
20 DeMar DeRozan 8.5
But...Melo sux, and he's not really hurt!
jrodmc wrote:mreinman wrote:Go to the below page and sort by Win Shares and you would probably get the closest advanced stat to reality (there will always be anomalies with every stat)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leag...Top 20:
Rk Player WS ▾
1 Kevin Durant 18.4
2 LeBron James 15.2
3 Kevin Love 13.8
4 Stephen Curry 12.3
5 Blake Griffin 11.8
6 James Harden 11.7
7 Chris Paul 11.7
8 DeAndre Jordan 10.8
9 Kyle Lowry 10.8
10 Paul George 10.6
11 Anthony Davis 10.5
12 Joakim Noah 10.4
13 Carmelo Anthony 10.3
14 Goran Dragic 10.2
15 Dirk Nowitzki 10.2
16 Andre Drummond 9.2
17 Damian Lillard 9.2
18 Robin Lopez 9
19 Serge Ibaka 8.8
20 DeMar DeRozan 8.5
But...Melo sux, and he's not really hurt!
I think 13th is relatively fair of what and where he was and should be this year. DJ has had a great year and a candidate for MIP but I think he may be a bit too high. Dragic and Noah may also deserves to be bumped higher.
mreinman wrote:jrodmc wrote:mreinman wrote:Go to the below page and sort by Win Shares and you would probably get the closest advanced stat to reality (there will always be anomalies with every stat)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leag...Top 20:
Rk Player WS ▾
1 Kevin Durant 18.4
2 LeBron James 15.2
3 Kevin Love 13.8
4 Stephen Curry 12.3
5 Blake Griffin 11.8
6 James Harden 11.7
7 Chris Paul 11.7
8 DeAndre Jordan 10.8
9 Kyle Lowry 10.8
10 Paul George 10.6
11 Anthony Davis 10.5
12 Joakim Noah 10.4
13 Carmelo Anthony 10.3
14 Goran Dragic 10.2
15 Dirk Nowitzki 10.2
16 Andre Drummond 9.2
17 Damian Lillard 9.2
18 Robin Lopez 9
19 Serge Ibaka 8.8
20 DeMar DeRozan 8.5
But...Melo sux, and he's not really hurt!
I think 13th is relatively fair of what and where he was and should be this year. DJ has had a great year and a candidate for MIP but I think he may be a bit too high. Dragic and Noah may also deserves to be bumped higher.
I'm sorry, but any list that has Melo within sight of the likes of St. Paul the George is completely unrealistic!
Seriously though, I think win shares has been pooh-poohed on enough in this forum. You might have missed those threads, and I don't have enough ambition to go searching for them.
Not that I agree with the pooh-pooh, but I never argue stats with Bonn.
jrodmc wrote:mreinman wrote:jrodmc wrote:mreinman wrote:Go to the below page and sort by Win Shares and you would probably get the closest advanced stat to reality (there will always be anomalies with every stat)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leag...Top 20:
Rk Player WS ▾
1 Kevin Durant 18.4
2 LeBron James 15.2
3 Kevin Love 13.8
4 Stephen Curry 12.3
5 Blake Griffin 11.8
6 James Harden 11.7
7 Chris Paul 11.7
8 DeAndre Jordan 10.8
9 Kyle Lowry 10.8
10 Paul George 10.6
11 Anthony Davis 10.5
12 Joakim Noah 10.4
13 Carmelo Anthony 10.3
14 Goran Dragic 10.2
15 Dirk Nowitzki 10.2
16 Andre Drummond 9.2
17 Damian Lillard 9.2
18 Robin Lopez 9
19 Serge Ibaka 8.8
20 DeMar DeRozan 8.5
But...Melo sux, and he's not really hurt!
I think 13th is relatively fair of what and where he was and should be this year. DJ has had a great year and a candidate for MIP but I think he may be a bit too high. Dragic and Noah may also deserves to be bumped higher.
I'm sorry, but any list that has Melo within sight of the likes of St. Paul the George is completely unrealistic!
Seriously though, I think win shares has been pooh-poohed on enough in this forum. You might have missed those threads, and I don't have enough ambition to go searching for them.
Not that I agree with the pooh-pooh, but I never argue stats with Bonn.
Paul George his high because of his Defensive Win Shares. He is a very good two way player.
Wins Shares is just one of the advanced metrics and they can all be argued but it seems to always end up with the most realistic rankings. Melo fans don't like it because it does not have him as high as they would like and anti Melo fans believe that it/he is still too high.
I do think it is the most advanced though still far from perfect.
dk7th wrote:more good material to measure players actual value to their respective teams--http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/107408...
there was another article from a while back about gallinari that also looked at this statistic but is called RAPM there
http://www.denverstiffs.com/2013/1/12/38...
good read, I always thought the +/- stat was flawed because a player could be on the floor with wade and lebron for a majority of the time, he will have a pretty good +/-..
this breaks it down more, looking at the true contribution of the player while on the floor..
jrodmc wrote:mreinman wrote:Go to the below page and sort by Win Shares and you would probably get the closest advanced stat to reality (there will always be anomalies with every stat)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leag...Top 20:
Rk Player WS ▾
1 Kevin Durant 18.4
2 LeBron James 15.2
3 Kevin Love 13.8
4 Stephen Curry 12.3
5 Blake Griffin 11.8
6 James Harden 11.7
7 Chris Paul 11.7
8 DeAndre Jordan 10.8
9 Kyle Lowry 10.8
10 Paul George 10.6
11 Anthony Davis 10.5
12 Joakim Noah 10.4
13 Carmelo Anthony 10.3
14 Goran Dragic 10.2
15 Dirk Nowitzki 10.2
16 Andre Drummond 9.2
17 Damian Lillard 9.2
18 Robin Lopez 9
19 Serge Ibaka 8.8
20 DeMar DeRozan 8.5
But...Melo sux, and he's not really hurt!
did you examine him? smh (green font)
tkf wrote:jrodmc wrote:mreinman wrote:Go to the below page and sort by Win Shares and you would probably get the closest advanced stat to reality (there will always be anomalies with every stat)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leag...Top 20:
Rk Player WS ▾
1 Kevin Durant 18.4
2 LeBron James 15.2
3 Kevin Love 13.8
4 Stephen Curry 12.3
5 Blake Griffin 11.8
6 James Harden 11.7
7 Chris Paul 11.7
8 DeAndre Jordan 10.8
9 Kyle Lowry 10.8
10 Paul George 10.6
11 Anthony Davis 10.5
12 Joakim Noah 10.4
13 Carmelo Anthony 10.3
14 Goran Dragic 10.2
15 Dirk Nowitzki 10.2
16 Andre Drummond 9.2
17 Damian Lillard 9.2
18 Robin Lopez 9
19 Serge Ibaka 8.8
20 DeMar DeRozan 8.5
But...Melo sux, and he's not really hurt!
did you examine him? smh (green font)
I don't have to! I believe all obtuse comments about Melo's sucktitude! LMAO [sick smilie]
dk7th wrote:here is list of the league. note that tyson chandler is ranked 28th and carmelo anthony is ranked 52nd.http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/...
Love that Chandler is one spot behind Marc Gasol who is 27th. Phil needs to call that freak in Memphis and see if he can sell high on a 'highly efficient' Tyson.
mreinman wrote:Go to the below page and sort by Win Shares and you would probably get the closest advanced stat to reality (there will always be anomalies with every stat)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leag...Top 20:
Rk Player WS ▾
1 Kevin Durant 18.4
2 LeBron James 15.2
3 Kevin Love 13.8
4 Stephen Curry 12.3
5 Blake Griffin 11.8
6 James Harden 11.7
7 Chris Paul 11.7
8 DeAndre Jordan 10.8
9 Kyle Lowry 10.8
10 Paul George 10.6
11 Anthony Davis 10.5
12 Joakim Noah 10.4
13 Carmelo Anthony 10.3
14 Goran Dragic 10.2
15 Dirk Nowitzki 10.2
16 Andre Drummond 9.2
17 Damian Lillard 9.2
18 Robin Lopez 9
19 Serge Ibaka 8.8
20 DeMar DeRozan 8.5
What makes it the closest to reality? At the very least, you can make a good argument for using WS48 because you have to adjust for minutes played but I think there are other useful stats too.
Bonn1997 wrote:mreinman wrote:Go to the below page and sort by Win Shares and you would probably get the closest advanced stat to reality (there will always be anomalies with every stat)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leag...Top 20:
Rk Player WS ▾
1 Kevin Durant 18.4
2 LeBron James 15.2
3 Kevin Love 13.8
4 Stephen Curry 12.3
5 Blake Griffin 11.8
6 James Harden 11.7
7 Chris Paul 11.7
8 DeAndre Jordan 10.8
9 Kyle Lowry 10.8
10 Paul George 10.6
11 Anthony Davis 10.5
12 Joakim Noah 10.4
13 Carmelo Anthony 10.3
14 Goran Dragic 10.2
15 Dirk Nowitzki 10.2
16 Andre Drummond 9.2
17 Damian Lillard 9.2
18 Robin Lopez 9
19 Serge Ibaka 8.8
20 DeMar DeRozan 8.5
What makes it the closest to reality? At the very least, you can make a good argument for using WS48 because you have to adjust for minutes played but I think there are other useful stats too.
I did not say that there aren't other useful stats. Everything has its flaws. As you know WP's has an argument against Berri for over weighted rebounding. etc ...
WS48 is good too but what if a player is able to log more minutes? Actual WS's contributed seem to be more closely related to wins.
And if you look at the list, they seem to get it right - but that does not mean its correct.
Certainly a more realistic wins gauge than RPMS?
mreinman wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:mreinman wrote:Go to the below page and sort by Win Shares and you would probably get the closest advanced stat to reality (there will always be anomalies with every stat)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leag...Top 20:
Rk Player WS ▾
1 Kevin Durant 18.4
2 LeBron James 15.2
3 Kevin Love 13.8
4 Stephen Curry 12.3
5 Blake Griffin 11.8
6 James Harden 11.7
7 Chris Paul 11.7
8 DeAndre Jordan 10.8
9 Kyle Lowry 10.8
10 Paul George 10.6
11 Anthony Davis 10.5
12 Joakim Noah 10.4
13 Carmelo Anthony 10.3
14 Goran Dragic 10.2
15 Dirk Nowitzki 10.2
16 Andre Drummond 9.2
17 Damian Lillard 9.2
18 Robin Lopez 9
19 Serge Ibaka 8.8
20 DeMar DeRozan 8.5
What makes it the closest to reality? At the very least, you can make a good argument for using WS48 because you have to adjust for minutes played but I think there are other useful stats too.
I did not say that there aren't other useful stats. Everything has its flaws. As you know WP's has an argument against Berri for over weighted rebounding. etc ...
WS48 is good too but what if a player is able to log more minutes? Actual WS's contributed seem to be more closely related to wins.
And if you look at the list, they seem to get it right - but that does not mean its correct.
Certainly a more realistic wins gauge than RPMS?
I disagree. I've never seen any evidence that there's a consistent, big drop off in production as minutes increase. At most, you could look at WS48 and maybe do a tiny adjustment in your mind. Total WS is too confounded with minutes played though.
We need bonn in this thread to set it straight
Bonn1997 wrote:mreinman wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:mreinman wrote:Go to the below page and sort by Win Shares and you would probably get the closest advanced stat to reality (there will always be anomalies with every stat)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leag...Top 20:
Rk Player WS ▾
1 Kevin Durant 18.4
2 LeBron James 15.2
3 Kevin Love 13.8
4 Stephen Curry 12.3
5 Blake Griffin 11.8
6 James Harden 11.7
7 Chris Paul 11.7
8 DeAndre Jordan 10.8
9 Kyle Lowry 10.8
10 Paul George 10.6
11 Anthony Davis 10.5
12 Joakim Noah 10.4
13 Carmelo Anthony 10.3
14 Goran Dragic 10.2
15 Dirk Nowitzki 10.2
16 Andre Drummond 9.2
17 Damian Lillard 9.2
18 Robin Lopez 9
19 Serge Ibaka 8.8
20 DeMar DeRozan 8.5
What makes it the closest to reality? At the very least, you can make a good argument for using WS48 because you have to adjust for minutes played but I think there are other useful stats too.
I did not say that there aren't other useful stats. Everything has its flaws. As you know WP's has an argument against Berri for over weighted rebounding. etc ...
WS48 is good too but what if a player is able to log more minutes? Actual WS's contributed seem to be more closely related to wins.
And if you look at the list, they seem to get it right - but that does not mean its correct.
Certainly a more realistic wins gauge than RPMS?
I disagree. I've never seen any evidence that there's a consistent, big drop off in production as minutes increase. At most, you could look at WS48 and maybe do a tiny adjustment in your mind. Total WS is too confounded with minutes played though.
Minutes played is the actual minutes played. If a player plays 40 per and contributes more than a player who plays 35 minutes then he contributed more.
If want to make an argument that the player who played 35 minutes with the player who played 5 minutes as his backup then perhaps I can see some truth to that but there were need to be a stat that compiles this combined production. Backups very often dont perform at the level of the starter.
How about RPMS? What stat(s) do you go by as your barometer? You are a big fan of David Berri but now have a problem with WP's. Now I know stats are forever evolving but at any given time, you have to choose something. It can't keep changing based on the required outcome (not saying that you do this, but many do).
mreinman wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:mreinman wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:mreinman wrote:Go to the below page and sort by Win Shares and you would probably get the closest advanced stat to reality (there will always be anomalies with every stat)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leag...Top 20:
Rk Player WS ▾
1 Kevin Durant 18.4
2 LeBron James 15.2
3 Kevin Love 13.8
4 Stephen Curry 12.3
5 Blake Griffin 11.8
6 James Harden 11.7
7 Chris Paul 11.7
8 DeAndre Jordan 10.8
9 Kyle Lowry 10.8
10 Paul George 10.6
11 Anthony Davis 10.5
12 Joakim Noah 10.4
13 Carmelo Anthony 10.3
14 Goran Dragic 10.2
15 Dirk Nowitzki 10.2
16 Andre Drummond 9.2
17 Damian Lillard 9.2
18 Robin Lopez 9
19 Serge Ibaka 8.8
20 DeMar DeRozan 8.5
What makes it the closest to reality? At the very least, you can make a good argument for using WS48 because you have to adjust for minutes played but I think there are other useful stats too.
I did not say that there aren't other useful stats. Everything has its flaws. As you know WP's has an argument against Berri for over weighted rebounding. etc ...
WS48 is good too but what if a player is able to log more minutes? Actual WS's contributed seem to be more closely related to wins.
And if you look at the list, they seem to get it right - but that does not mean its correct.
Certainly a more realistic wins gauge than RPMS?
I disagree. I've never seen any evidence that there's a consistent, big drop off in production as minutes increase. At most, you could look at WS48 and maybe do a tiny adjustment in your mind. Total WS is too confounded with minutes played though.
Minutes played is the actual minutes played. If a player plays 40 per and contributes more than a player who plays 35 minutes then he contributed more.
If want to make an argument that the player who played 35 minutes with the player who played 5 minutes as his backup then perhaps I can see some truth to that but there were need to be a stat that compiles this combined production. Backups very often dont perform at the level of the starter.
How about RPMS? What stat(s) do you go by as your barometer? You are a big fan of David Berri but now have a problem with WP's. Now I know stats are forever evolving but at any given time, you have to choose something. It can't keep changing based on the required outcome (not saying that you do this, but many do).
I give some weight to most of the advanced stats including the nba tracking data. I definitely give win shares a good amount of weight.
So who would you give a higher contract to? A guy who plays great in 20 mpg or an ordinary player with a higher win share total because he's playing 32 mpg?
Bonn1997 wrote:mreinman wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:mreinman wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:mreinman wrote:Go to the below page and sort by Win Shares and you would probably get the closest advanced stat to reality (there will always be anomalies with every stat)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leag...Top 20:
Rk Player WS ▾
1 Kevin Durant 18.4
2 LeBron James 15.2
3 Kevin Love 13.8
4 Stephen Curry 12.3
5 Blake Griffin 11.8
6 James Harden 11.7
7 Chris Paul 11.7
8 DeAndre Jordan 10.8
9 Kyle Lowry 10.8
10 Paul George 10.6
11 Anthony Davis 10.5
12 Joakim Noah 10.4
13 Carmelo Anthony 10.3
14 Goran Dragic 10.2
15 Dirk Nowitzki 10.2
16 Andre Drummond 9.2
17 Damian Lillard 9.2
18 Robin Lopez 9
19 Serge Ibaka 8.8
20 DeMar DeRozan 8.5
What makes it the closest to reality? At the very least, you can make a good argument for using WS48 because you have to adjust for minutes played but I think there are other useful stats too.
I did not say that there aren't other useful stats. Everything has its flaws. As you know WP's has an argument against Berri for over weighted rebounding. etc ...
WS48 is good too but what if a player is able to log more minutes? Actual WS's contributed seem to be more closely related to wins.
And if you look at the list, they seem to get it right - but that does not mean its correct.
Certainly a more realistic wins gauge than RPMS?
I disagree. I've never seen any evidence that there's a consistent, big drop off in production as minutes increase. At most, you could look at WS48 and maybe do a tiny adjustment in your mind. Total WS is too confounded with minutes played though.
Minutes played is the actual minutes played. If a player plays 40 per and contributes more than a player who plays 35 minutes then he contributed more.
If want to make an argument that the player who played 35 minutes with the player who played 5 minutes as his backup then perhaps I can see some truth to that but there were need to be a stat that compiles this combined production. Backups very often dont perform at the level of the starter.
How about RPMS? What stat(s) do you go by as your barometer? You are a big fan of David Berri but now have a problem with WP's. Now I know stats are forever evolving but at any given time, you have to choose something. It can't keep changing based on the required outcome (not saying that you do this, but many do).
I give some weight to most of the advanced stats including the nba tracking data. I definitely give win shares a good amount of weight.
So who would you give a higher contract to? A guy who plays great in 20 mpg or an ordinary player with a higher win share total because he's playing 32 mpg?
A player that can average a large number of minutes and still remain efficient. There certainly is going to be diminished returns if you max out a guys minutes. You don't believe that rest improves efficiency?
This is why Durant will probably get the MVP. He has logged 2889 (2nd to Melo) and is at a freaky .306 (wp48). James is at .265.
Take Kawhi Leonard. At 1800 minutes, he is ranked number 12 in the league in WS48 at .192 - Do you max him out before Pual George, Noah or Howard?
