FiveThirtyEight.com released statistical projections for the upcoming NBA season, and the website pegged the Knicks to finish in 13th place in the Eastern Conference with a 31-51 record. That puts them only ahead of the 76ers and Bucks.
This is the second straight season in which computer projections have forecasted gloom and doom for the Knicks. Last season, ESPN’s system, SCHOENE, pegged the Knicks to win 37 games, and that projection was right on the money: The team finished out of the playoffs with a 37-45 record, just one game behind the eighth-place Hawks.
I said 33 in the prediction thread because I figure this team will be able to win 31-35 games and probably not eclipse last year's mark. This roster is not a good blend and other teams improved. We did improve PG, but our only two proven PGs are old.
Other than that, we're really not better than last year's squad because we are one of the oldest teams and maybe the most injury-prone club in the league now. That is going to be hard to handle with half the games being back-to-backs this year.
Nobody wants to address the age and the schedule factors, but they are significant. There simply are going to be too many nights when younger clubs are going to run our tired butts out of the gym.
We can't just say we'll counter that with our younger players and expect that to bring wins. It will be good because it will give our youth playing time, but that's the real silver lining here, not more wins.
Compared to what some sites have us finishing
It appears I'm tempted to make an adjustment
I've set the bar and my sights too high
Shame on me I guess who woulda thunk
im guessing 38-40. if this team gets the triangle, they'll have success.
nyk4ever wrote:im guessing 38-40. if this team gets the triangle, they'll have success.
I cant believe that this team would be a 31 win team unless Melo gets hurt. We did go 14-6 or something like that? down the stretch? IF THJ Melo Amare and JR can play up to their best capabilities and the rest of the guys are complimentary--we should be close to 41-43. This Bargnani stuff changed some of my original opinions.
The SCHOENE model has them winning 32 games. Less than last year as well.
BRIGGS wrote:nyk4ever wrote:im guessing 38-40. if this team gets the triangle, they'll have success.
I cant believe that this team would be a 31 win team unless Melo gets hurt. We did go 14-6 or something like that? down the stretch? IF THJ Melo Amare and JR can play up to their best capabilities and the rest of the guys are complimentary--we should be close to 41-43. This Bargnani stuff changed some of my original opinions.
Knicks broke out of a bad slump last season with I think a 7 game win streak sometime in March, then won,lost a handful and then had another mini-streak to end the season.
That first set of wins was the softest part of the whole schedule. Sometimes you need those soft parts of the schedule to get those runs going, so I'd look for those parts of the schedule after the all-star break for those opportunities.
I think they'll need them since the beginning of the season is going to be very challenging.
gunsnewing wrote:http://www.ultimateknicks.com/forum/topi...
Make no mistake, if Briggy got something to say, its in a catagory (thread) by itself!!!!
Im never going to argue against the mostly acurate preseaon metrics. Trades and INjuries can change any team but:
Rookie coach
New system
Patience
Draft position incentive
All reasons. Bargs and Amare on paper are great talents and I am very ecouraged that Bargs could be a good knick if he can stay healthy (it happens!!!).
JR Smith can really turn it up to win some games and we can run Melo into the ground as well to jack up some wins. To what avail?
Art of War has some shyt about "Lose the battle to win the war".
What they didn't tell you was that this is the computer, don't worry guys:
Computers are never wrong when it comes to predicting the future!
H1AND1 wrote:The SCHOENE model has them winning 32 games. Less than last year as well.
I was impressed that the computer last year foresaw Tyson's injury, and the quitting on the coach- even guessed that we'd have a rally at the end of the season! Remind me what else Schooner predicted regarding other teams not called The Knicks? Oh thats right, it was pretty much wrong. (not having a go at you, just the computer!).
Like in life, physics and basketball, you can't create an all knowing, future predicting computer because there are too many variables, and the greater number of variables you include, the greater the degree of chaos created due to the creation of more variables to take into account.
BRIGGS wrote:nyk4ever wrote:im guessing 38-40. if this team gets the triangle, they'll have success.
I cant believe that this team would be a 31 win team unless Melo gets hurt. We did go 14-6 or something like that? down the stretch? IF THJ Melo Amare and JR can play up to their best capabilities and the rest of the guys are complimentary--we should be close to 41-43. This Bargnani stuff changed some of my original opinions.
was thinking the same thing briggs. i think 31 is pretty dreary and if things go somehwat well, i think 38 is a good number. i think the high watermark for this team would be like 45.. i dont think we have enough pieces to ever win more that, but i do think 31 is a bit drastic.
When you factor in the players last year numbers I can see the computer being right. But this is not last year and factors have changed which the computer can not compute. For instance system injuries and so on.
Same people who were wrongly saying the projections were wrong last year are saying the same this year….hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
MX25 wrote:Same people who were wrongly saying the projections were wrong last year are saying the same this year….hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Im somewhere between an optimist and a realist. I see opportunity in the east and look back at our 54 win season--look back last year when we went 14-6 to finish the season and then you have soem hope. BUT this is not the same team its much changed. I have to wonder if we had Chandler we mightve had a better chance.
I have a hard time seeing us do worse than last year when I feel like we've improved some key deficiencies in the off season.
I see this season playing out much like prior years with Don Chaney (can't believe I miss this guy) and Allan Houston - nothing pretty, but a group that competed every single game, every single possession and managed to win 37 games.
I think 40-45 games is a pretty fair prediction. I think we can be a playoff team around the 6-8 seeds but most likely wont go far. This is a transition into next offseason when we have more money available
StarksEwing1 wrote:I think 40-45 games is a pretty fair prediction. I think we can be a playoff team around the 6-8 seeds but most likely wont go far. This is a transition into next offseason when we have more money available
Here si the problem. Even if we win 50 games this year--this team has multiple FA including our entire frontline. So whatever you see this year good or bad--I don't see a continuation necessarily as we are likely going to have to renounce almost every FA to use a max contract anyway.
Well Briggs hopefully they get there without the help of amare, bargnani and anyone who is not part of the future.
i am sticking with 35 wins, and i admit that it is based on emotion. first, i "have faith" in derek fisher's leadership ability. the better coaches are leaders and i think that has to count for a few extra games. my win total is also spurred by a sort of "desperation by proxy," ie. the knicks HAVE TO do well enough this season to be an appealing destination, or their overarching plan is crippled.
