1 250 .250 .215 .178 .357
2 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123
3 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040
4 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012
5 88 .088 .097 .107 .261 .360 .084 .004
6 63 .063 .071 .081 .439 .305 .040 .001
7 43 .043 .049 .058 .599 .232 .018 .000
8 28 .028 .033 .039 .724 .168 .008 .000
9 17 .017 .020 .024 .813 .122 .004 .000
10 11 .011 .013 .016 .870 .089 .002 .000
11 8 .008 .009 .012 .907 .063 .001 .000
12 7 .007 .008 .010 .935 .039 .000
13 6 .006 .007 .009 .960 .018
14 5 .005 .006 .007
The best that can be said about positions 1+2 is that you will not pick 5th unless you are extremely unlucky.
If we go by odds--positions 1+2 are due to win the lottery as lower seed have dominated in recent years--mathematically speaking that has to change.
While idiot teams chase rings we chase lotto balls. Bring on the tank!
gunsnewing wrote:While idiot teams chase rings we chase lotto balls. Bring on the tank!
Some teams already have balls.
Others need to play lottery...
We need multiple picks and talents
CA will break down and decline before we can have build a roster with enough talent around him to be a contender
Houston would be the team I would like to trade him to and I do believe that Morey would rather sign LA this summer rather than trade for CA
Again, we could get back 3 of our own 2nd rounders and some other 2nd round picks
Add in 2 1st round picks and I would be very happy with DMO who has developed quite nicely in Houston, Koustas Pap,
I do not think they think they would send use Terrence Jones or Ariza, not sure about Patrick Beverley in a sign and trade to match salaries, and we still get back a 10m+ trade exemption
Might need to take back Terry to match salaries in a sign and trade this summer with 1st year guaranteed, similar to what we did with Q Rich to Toronto for AB
What would be our bottom price?
1 - 2 1st rounders, I would demand 4-6 2nd round picks, most of which would likely be high 2nd rounders
BRIGGS wrote:1 250 .250 .215 .178 .357
2 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123
3 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040
4 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012
5 88 .088 .097 .107 .261 .360 .084 .004
6 63 .063 .071 .081 .439 .305 .040 .001
7 43 .043 .049 .058 .599 .232 .018 .000
8 28 .028 .033 .039 .724 .168 .008 .000
9 17 .017 .020 .024 .813 .122 .004 .000
10 11 .011 .013 .016 .870 .089 .002 .000
11 8 .008 .009 .012 .907 .063 .001 .000
12 7 .007 .008 .010 .935 .039 .000
13 6 .006 .007 .009 .960 .018
14 5 .005 .006 .007The best that can be said about positions 1+2 is that you will not pick 5th unless you are extremely unlucky.
If we go by odds--positions 1+2 are due to win the lottery as lower seed have dominated in recent years--mathematically speaking that has to change.
Ha- we ARE extremely unlucky, where have you been this past decade?!
It's going to be tough- there are a lot of terrible teams- the Pistons, Sixers, Twolves, Lakers- one I'll timed accidental winning streak and we could completely screw ourselves.
RonRon wrote:We need multiple picks and talentsCA will break down and decline before we can have build a roster with enough talent around him to be a contender
Houston would be the team I would like to trade him to and I do believe that Morey would rather sign LA this summer rather than trade for CA
Again, we could get back 3 of our own 2nd rounders and some other 2nd round picks
Add in 2 1st round picks and I would be very happy with DMO who has developed quite nicely in Houston, Koustas Pap,
I do not think they think they would send use Terrence Jones or Ariza, not sure about Patrick Beverley in a sign and trade to match salaries, and we still get back a 10m+ trade exemption
Might need to take back Terry to match salaries in a sign and trade this summer with 1st year guaranteed, similar to what we did with Q Rich to Toronto for AB
What would be our bottom price?
1 - 2 1st rounders, I would demand 4-6 2nd round picks, most of which would likely be high 2nd rounders
I would not trade Csrmelo for just picks. I think our fastest routre to getting better is by keeping Carmelo--getting lucky in the lottery and by grabbing a premium FA. The filler stuff--if we want to see if we can get an additional later round 1 early 2 he second tier FA's etc... thats important as well. But I think keeping Carmelo and developing a big 3 and then filling in correctly--I think we cna do it.
BRIGGS wrote:1 250 .250 .215 .178 .357
2 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123
3 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040
4 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012
5 88 .088 .097 .107 .261 .360 .084 .004
6 63 .063 .071 .081 .439 .305 .040 .001
7 43 .043 .049 .058 .599 .232 .018 .000
8 28 .028 .033 .039 .724 .168 .008 .000
9 17 .017 .020 .024 .813 .122 .004 .000
10 11 .011 .013 .016 .870 .089 .002 .000
11 8 .008 .009 .012 .907 .063 .001 .000
12 7 .007 .008 .010 .935 .039 .000
13 6 .006 .007 .009 .960 .018
14 5 .005 .006 .007The best that can be said about positions 1+2 is that you will not pick 5th unless you are extremely unlucky.
If we go by odds--positions 1+2 are due to win the lottery as lower seed have dominated in recent years--mathematically speaking that has to change.
Ugh, you're killing me here. That's not how odds work.
VCoug wrote:BRIGGS wrote:1 250 .250 .215 .178 .357
2 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123
3 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040
4 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012
5 88 .088 .097 .107 .261 .360 .084 .004
6 63 .063 .071 .081 .439 .305 .040 .001
7 43 .043 .049 .058 .599 .232 .018 .000
8 28 .028 .033 .039 .724 .168 .008 .000
9 17 .017 .020 .024 .813 .122 .004 .000
10 11 .011 .013 .016 .870 .089 .002 .000
11 8 .008 .009 .012 .907 .063 .001 .000
12 7 .007 .008 .010 .935 .039 .000
13 6 .006 .007 .009 .960 .018
14 5 .005 .006 .007The best that can be said about positions 1+2 is that you will not pick 5th unless you are extremely unlucky.
If we go by odds--positions 1+2 are due to win the lottery as lower seed have dominated in recent years--mathematically speaking that has to change.
Ugh, you're killing me here. That's not how odds work.
Really statistics. You're right--its the same "odds" but statistically speaking the 1-2 seeds are due. The 1-2 haven't won the lottery since 2004 and 2009 respectively.
Due? Yeah, like Vcoug said: The ping pong balls don't have brains that feel sorry for the 1 and 2 seeds and decide to help them out.
Bonn1997 wrote:Due? Yeah, like Vcoug said: The ping pong balls don't have brains that feel sorry for the 1 and 2 seeds and decide to help them out.
The 1+2 seeds carry 45% odds to win. At some point odds statistically average out. Thats like saying just because the color red came out 8 times in a row--we should expect it to continue because it has--but it doesn't and won't.
There is an 83% chance--thats 83% that either lottery team 1 or 2 will get pick 2.
BRIGGS wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:Due? Yeah, like Vcoug said: The ping pong balls don't have brains that feel sorry for the 1 and 2 seeds and decide to help them out.
The 1+2 seeds carry 45% odds to win. At some point odds statistically average out. Thats like saying just because the color red came out 8 times in a row--we should expect it to continue because it has--but it doesn't and won't.
No, it's saying that what has happened previously has no bearing on what will happen now or in the future.
VCoug wrote:BRIGGS wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:Due? Yeah, like Vcoug said: The ping pong balls don't have brains that feel sorry for the 1 and 2 seeds and decide to help them out.
The 1+2 seeds carry 45% odds to win. At some point odds statistically average out. Thats like saying just because the color red came out 8 times in a row--we should expect it to continue because it has--but it doesn't and won't.
No, it's saying that what has happened previously has no bearing on what will happen now or in the future.
Thats not how odds work. At some point the math will work. We might have to wait one hundred years to see which we wont but my guess is the 1+2 seed will come close to winning the lottery 45 times out of 100. Right now its working 8 out of 30 or a little less than 30%. So we will see more 1+ 2 teams win the lottery--my bet:)
I wish there was no pressure to be good right away but with the money they gave Melo they are under pressure to win before his 5yrs are up.
Ideally I would've rather traded Melo and stockpiled assets to use in trades and free agent signings. The draft is hit or miss but Look at Chicago. They finally hit and are contenders every year.
I pray to God that Phil is placing more value in assets and like Bonn I would hire a sabermatrition to crunch the numbers NOT Solely rely on Mills and Phil's lack of expertise.
It's kind of sad that as fans the only thing we hold out hope for is a sure fire lottery pick. If we draft a bust of a player who is years away We suck again next year and Toronto gets our lottery pick
gunsnewing wrote:I wish there was no pressure to be good right away but with the money they gave Melo they are under pressure to win before his 5yrs are up.Ideally I would've rather traded Melo and stockpiled assets to use in trades and free agent signings. The draft is hit or miss but Look at Chicago. They finally hit and are contenders every year.
I pray to God that Phil is placing more value in assets and like Bonn I would hire a sabermatrition to crunch the numbers NOT Solely rely on Mills and Phil's lack of expertise.
It's kind of sad that as fans the only thing we hold out hope for is a sure fire lottery pick. If we draft a bust of a player who is years away We suck again next year and Toronto gets our lottery pick
Quite honestly if we win the lottery Melo becomes a distant 2nd in importance--heck even with pick #2.
BRIGGS wrote:gunsnewing wrote:I wish there was no pressure to be good right away but with the money they gave Melo they are under pressure to win before his 5yrs are up.Ideally I would've rather traded Melo and stockpiled assets to use in trades and free agent signings. The draft is hit or miss but Look at Chicago. They finally hit and are contenders every year.
I pray to God that Phil is placing more value in assets and like Bonn I would hire a sabermatrition to crunch the numbers NOT Solely rely on Mills and Phil's lack of expertise.
It's kind of sad that as fans the only thing we hold out hope for is a sure fire lottery pick. If we draft a bust of a player who is years away We suck again next year and Toronto gets our lottery pick
Quite honestly if we win the lottery Melo becomes a distant 2nd in importance--heck even with pick #2.
truthfully melo probably fits best as the number 2 guy anyway
BRIGGS wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:Due? Yeah, like Vcoug said: The ping pong balls don't have brains that feel sorry for the 1 and 2 seeds and decide to help them out.
The 1+2 seeds carry 45% odds to win. At some point odds statistically average out. Thats like saying just because the color red came out 8 times in a row--we should expect it to continue because it has--but it doesn't and won't.
There is an 83% chance--thats 83% that either lottery team 1 or 2 will get pick 2.
The closer we get to pick 1, the better our odds of improving the team, regardless of which pick we end up with. Even if we whiff on first pick, this is a deep draft with potential franchise changing implications near the top. We're lucky we haven't given away this pick. Let's tank and let Phil go to work.
Moonangie wrote:BRIGGS wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:Due? Yeah, like Vcoug said: The ping pong balls don't have brains that feel sorry for the 1 and 2 seeds and decide to help them out.
The 1+2 seeds carry 45% odds to win. At some point odds statistically average out. Thats like saying just because the color red came out 8 times in a row--we should expect it to continue because it has--but it doesn't and won't.
There is an 83% chance--thats 83% that either lottery team 1 or 2 will get pick 2.
The closer we get to pick 1, the better our odds of improving the team, regardless of which pick we end up with. Even if we whiff on first pick, this is a deep draft with potential franchise changing implications near the top. We're lucky we haven't given away this pick. Let's tank and let Phil go to work.
we werent allowed to trade the pick otherwise dolan would have and hurt us even more
BRIGGS wrote:VCoug wrote:BRIGGS wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:Due? Yeah, like Vcoug said: The ping pong balls don't have brains that feel sorry for the 1 and 2 seeds and decide to help them out.
The 1+2 seeds carry 45% odds to win. At some point odds statistically average out. Thats like saying just because the color red came out 8 times in a row--we should expect it to continue because it has--but it doesn't and won't.
No, it's saying that what has happened previously has no bearing on what will happen now or in the future.
Thats not how odds work. At some point the math will work. We might have to wait one hundred years to see which we wont but my guess is the 1+2 seed will come close to winning the lottery 45 times out of 100. Right now its working 8 out of 30 or a little less than 30%. So we will see more 1+ 2 teams win the lottery--my bet:)
No, VCoug is right because these are independent trials (each year is independent). It's like if you have a fair coin, but have gotten 5 heads in a row. Over the next 100 trials, you still expect 50 heads and 50 tails.
Your thinking here is actually what's referred to as the gambler's fallacy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s...
we have 1 pick, cap space, and a clueless coach= another 10 years of lottery balls..
with our luck and history, we are sure to draft the biggest bust in franchise history...You know the saying when it rains it pours.
IMO the knicks should swap picks with somebody and get some veteran leadership, and a very good proven player, Grab a young player in the 15 to 20 spot.
knicks1248 wrote:we have 1 pick, cap space, and a clueless coach= another 10 years of lottery balls..with our luck and history, we are sure to draft the biggest bust in franchise history...You know the saying when it rains it pours.
IMO the knicks should swap picks with somebody and get some veteran leadership, and a very good proven player, Grab a young player in the 15 to 20 spot.
Don't worry they might still trade the pick for Josh smith and Brandon Jennings
