kudos to the statistics experts: mreinman and bonn1997. they showed stats can-- and often do-- have utter predictive ability. his defense has been simply atrocious. good job!
With Ellis, Shumpert, Jr Smith, Jamal Crawford, Stuckey, Shved as the other options to cover our need for a SG. Was a good move. He should move to backup SF if he opts in. He is a strong guard who can probably stay with forwards better then he can stay with guards.
newyorker4ever wrote:callmened wrote:i have to give credit where its due. i like the signing. hes a nice role player on a cheap and short contract. nice one yr rental
He's not a role player he's a starter and our new starting SG.
nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:mreinman wrote:gunsnewing wrote:mreinman wrote:His WS48 has been BRUTAL the last three years!Also, why are his assist number so low? Averaging 2 assists per game at guard is really bad.
Brian Shaw. And it was the last 2yrs not 3. 3yrs ago he averaged 18pts on 46% FG AND 43% 3pt FG. He was the best player on that Denver team even when Gallo was healthy
his career WS48 is .087. That is not good at all.
His assist numbers are probably the culprit.
.087 is a little below average. Assists may be part of it but his turnovers are low too. So I'm not sure. Per 36 min, he averages 2.5 assists and 1.6 turnovers. His steals are like record-breaking low for an SG (0.6 per 36 min) and his blocks (0.3 per 36) are a bit lower than I'd like.
If Phil can continue to add solid players I would expect his WS48 to go back up this year. This should be a much improved team with more solid players filling up the rotation. Afflalo should have a good role in this offense if he can make the shots and drives that our other SG's from last year missed.
bad prediction but bookmark it so you learn from it.
It appears that AA has developed some bad habit while he was in Orlando where he was the first option.
He become more ball dominating and does not move well while the ball is not with him.
stopstandthere wrote:It appears that AA has developed some bad habit while he was in Orlando where he was the first option. He become more ball dominating and does not move well while the ball is not with him.
AA was and is pretty much consistently who he is. An under average player who won't pass.
mreinman wrote:stopstandthere wrote:It appears that AA has developed some bad habit while he was in Orlando where he was the first option. He become more ball dominating and does not move well while the ball is not with him.
AA was and is pretty much consistently who he is. An under average player who won't pass.
At some points this season it seemed like the Woodson era Knicks out there, Melo and JR, I mean AA playing 2 on 5.
mreinman wrote:stopstandthere wrote:It appears that AA has developed some bad habit while he was in Orlando where he was the first option. He become more ball dominating and does not move well while the ball is not with him.
AA was and is pretty much consistently who he is. An under average player who won't pass.
Quick question, what holds more value? WS or WS48?
Also how would you evaluate a guy like Enes Kanter who's WS/WS48 has taken a leap due to the reduced role? His WS/WS48 went from scrubby in Utah to pretty good in OKC?
Jose Calderon's TS% has been great throughout his career and his WS/WS48 for most of his career have been pretty solid. Way better then what he has displayed with the Knicks. Before these last 2 seasons which Lowry has exploded and Calderon dropped. Calderon held higher TS and WS/WS48.
Tiago Splitter has had the WS/48 that if he got 36mins a game would be one of the best centers in the NBA.
These are legit questions and comments i'm presenting to understand this better, not sarcastic comments and questions saying that its BS.
I don't get the circle jerk... most people said the same thing. OK signing, has some upside if he fits well, no downside as the contract is short, reasonable and this is productive player. AA's defense has not been atrocious at all. It hasn't been good, but it hasn't been terrible either. Hindsight says still a good signing. Good use of available money. It wasn't a good season for the Knicks but AA was pretty much what most thought he would be
AA has been a disppointment to me. Doesnt shoot well enough and does not pass. Not a triangle player.
His low post game is good.
What some guys are describing as AA's faults - all become strengths as a 2nd unit player. The 2nd unit needs a go to scorer to allow Melo to rest. Too many games this year we've had to bring Melo back in early or not rely on the bench because they stink it up on offense. I've felt we've needed a go to scorer or a veteran on that 2nd unit.
nyknickzingis wrote:What some guys are describing as AA's faults - all become strengths as a 2nd unit player. The 2nd unit needs a go to scorer to allow Melo to rest. Too many games this year we've had to bring Melo back in early or not rely on the bench because they stink it up on offense. I've felt we've needed a go to scorer or a veteran on that 2nd unit.
+1... and that contract opt in or not is a very good one for that role. The big problem is he is the best guard on the roster. There's your hole
fishmike wrote:I don't get the circle jerk... most people said the same thing. OK signing, has some upside if he fits well, no downside as the contract is short, reasonable and this is productive player. AA's defense has not been atrocious at all. It hasn't been good, but it hasn't been terrible either. Hindsight says still a good signing. Good use of available money. It wasn't a good season for the Knicks but AA was pretty much what most thought he would be
AA is a mediocre player signed for short term mediocre money. People generally garner much more respect when they admit that they are wrong rather than gloat when they are right.
foosballnick wrote:fishmike wrote:I don't get the circle jerk... most people said the same thing. OK signing, has some upside if he fits well, no downside as the contract is short, reasonable and this is productive player. AA's defense has not been atrocious at all. It hasn't been good, but it hasn't been terrible either. Hindsight says still a good signing. Good use of available money. It wasn't a good season for the Knicks but AA was pretty much what most thought he would be
AA is a mediocre player signed for short term mediocre money. People generally garner much more respect when they admit that they are wrong rather than gloat when they are right.
thats exactly right. Actually, the people who are mostly right and therefore get to gloat often are the ones who aren't in love with their own custom opinions and can always admit when they were wrong or misread the data.
The main thing is that if you follow a mathematical approach and use previous data to support your prediction, there is (mostly) no such thing as being wrong. You made a valid assumptions that was based on good research. If it fail or succeeds after that is less important.
I will keep using my poker analogy. If you hit a gut shot with terrible pot odds then you cannot gloat (obviously). If you hit your gut shot and calculated correctly and only made the call because of the pot odds then you technically can gloat but you really just made the correct call then anyone who plays the game correctly would make.
ITS NOT ROCKET SCIENCE!!
oh and btw ... I was WRONG about jose. I thought he would be a better player here. I know his defense sucks but he was always a better offensive player than this.
I did now learn that I need to understand the Jose type anomaly better. With what I learned from Jose, I watched Monroe very closely and was very against bringing him in. Of course, I was all in on Rolo since I have been watching him (and following his advanced stats) for a few years.
A few years ago I scoffed at data and was like all the other couch GM's who flexed my muscles and was usually wrong. After a few back and forths with Bonn that he absolutely owned me because gut arguments really don't work, I decided to take a deeper look at analytics which I think is mind blowing.
newyorknewyork wrote:mreinman wrote:stopstandthere wrote:It appears that AA has developed some bad habit while he was in Orlando where he was the first option. He become more ball dominating and does not move well while the ball is not with him.
AA was and is pretty much consistently who he is. An under average player who won't pass.
Quick question, what holds more value? WS or WS48?
Also how would you evaluate a guy like Enes Kanter who's WS/WS48 has taken a leap due to the reduced role? His WS/WS48 went from scrubby in Utah to pretty good in OKC?
Jose Calderon's TS% has been great throughout his career and his WS/WS48 for most of his career have been pretty solid. Way better then what he has displayed with the Knicks. Before these last 2 seasons which Lowry has exploded and Calderon dropped. Calderon held higher TS and WS/WS48.
Tiago Splitter has had the WS/48 that if he got 36mins a game would be one of the best centers in the NBA.
These are legit questions and comments i'm presenting to understand this better, not sarcastic comments and questions saying that its BS.
im more of an eye test guy myself. anyone who watches Kanter play defense can figure out that hes anaverage player at best. any plays he makes on offense are negated by his god awful defense.
but to answer your question: i dont like any statistic that extrapolates data. whether thats per 48 or per 36. it makes too many assumptions of how productive a player is over that time.
i thought for the most part, fans here thought that he was a nice upgrade to have as a starter but he was getting older, injury problems and therefore werent expecting great long term results. on a bad team (orlando/denver) hes a starter and on a good team (last yr portland) hes a bench player. were a bad team so i expected him to play
callmened wrote:newyorknewyork wrote:mreinman wrote:stopstandthere wrote:It appears that AA has developed some bad habit while he was in Orlando where he was the first option. He become more ball dominating and does not move well while the ball is not with him.
AA was and is pretty much consistently who he is. An under average player who won't pass.
Quick question, what holds more value? WS or WS48?
Also how would you evaluate a guy like Enes Kanter who's WS/WS48 has taken a leap due to the reduced role? His WS/WS48 went from scrubby in Utah to pretty good in OKC?
Jose Calderon's TS% has been great throughout his career and his WS/WS48 for most of his career have been pretty solid. Way better then what he has displayed with the Knicks. Before these last 2 seasons which Lowry has exploded and Calderon dropped. Calderon held higher TS and WS/WS48.
Tiago Splitter has had the WS/48 that if he got 36mins a game would be one of the best centers in the NBA.
These are legit questions and comments i'm presenting to understand this better, not sarcastic comments and questions saying that its BS.
im more of an eye test guy myself. anyone who watches Kanter play defense can figure out that hes anaverage player at best. any plays he makes on offense are negated by his god awful defense.
but to answer your question: i dont like any statistic that extrapolates data. whether thats per 48 or per 36. it makes too many assumptions of how productive a player is over that time.
In terms of scoring and rebounding Kanter is very efficient at these areas and is pretty strong in a per min basis. So giving him the reduced role and mins, having him produce against bench players has worked out very well as they are maximizing his strengths it seems. But because he isn't strong at creating for others or playing defense. Featuring him would expose him more as a liability even if he got his numbers.
I thought win shares would penalize him more for lack of creating and defense though. So his reduced role must hide that for his WS to have climbed like it has.
Affalo from a shooting perspective is shooting %457(fg) %387(3pt). %875(ft). His shooting has been pretty good this yr. But he doesn't create, or rebound enough and probably would be better off guarding Forwards then Guards. He is pretty much a 20 min a game reserve shooter.
foosballnick wrote:fishmike wrote:I don't get the circle jerk... most people said the same thing. OK signing, has some upside if he fits well, no downside as the contract is short, reasonable and this is productive player. AA's defense has not been atrocious at all. It hasn't been good, but it hasn't been terrible either. Hindsight says still a good signing. Good use of available money. It wasn't a good season for the Knicks but AA was pretty much what most thought he would be
AA is a mediocre player signed for short term mediocre money. People generally garner much more respect when they admit that they are wrong rather than gloat when they are right.
i was dead wrong about afflalo. i liked the signing but his play does not merit starter's minutes. reduce his minutes to around 22-24 a game and he could prove of some value to the knicks. i should have looked at his advanced stats first before making my assumptions.
newyorknewyork wrote:mreinman wrote:stopstandthere wrote:It appears that AA has developed some bad habit while he was in Orlando where he was the first option. He become more ball dominating and does not move well while the ball is not with him.
AA was and is pretty much consistently who he is. An under average player who won't pass.
Quick question, what holds more value? WS or WS48?
Also how would you evaluate a guy like Enes Kanter who's WS/WS48 has taken a leap due to the reduced role? His WS/WS48 went from scrubby in Utah to pretty good in OKC?
Jose Calderon's TS% has been great throughout his career and his WS/WS48 for most of his career have been pretty solid. Way better then what he has displayed with the Knicks. Before these last 2 seasons which Lowry has exploded and Calderon dropped. Calderon held higher TS and WS/WS48.
Tiago Splitter has had the WS/48 that if he got 36mins a game would be one of the best centers in the NBA.
These are legit questions and comments i'm presenting to understand this better, not sarcastic comments and questions saying that its BS.
very valid questions / points.
kanter is a great example and so is monroe.
Defensive advanced stats are terrible and for now, you need to see (or hear/read) and understand how good a player is on defense. Bad defense unfortunately does not really show up in WS48. Maybe they will be there one day but not now. Harden looks great on many defensive advance stats and so does/did Iverson. Enough said, no? 
So when judging a player and want to use advanced stats, you would at the very least need to know that they are a decent defender. If they are not good defenders then its hard to know how much weight you can give or subtract to WS48.
Lowry is the perfect example from the other extreme. A really good defender and already has a great WS48. How much should that add to his WS48?
Again, defensive stats are hard to measure and definitely lagging.
mreinman wrote:newyorknewyork wrote:mreinman wrote:stopstandthere wrote:It appears that AA has developed some bad habit while he was in Orlando where he was the first option. He become more ball dominating and does not move well while the ball is not with him.
AA was and is pretty much consistently who he is. An under average player who won't pass.
Quick question, what holds more value? WS or WS48?
Also how would you evaluate a guy like Enes Kanter who's WS/WS48 has taken a leap due to the reduced role? His WS/WS48 went from scrubby in Utah to pretty good in OKC?
Jose Calderon's TS% has been great throughout his career and his WS/WS48 for most of his career have been pretty solid. Way better then what he has displayed with the Knicks. Before these last 2 seasons which Lowry has exploded and Calderon dropped. Calderon held higher TS and WS/WS48.
Tiago Splitter has had the WS/48 that if he got 36mins a game would be one of the best centers in the NBA.
These are legit questions and comments i'm presenting to understand this better, not sarcastic comments and questions saying that its BS.
kanter is a great example and so is monroe.
Defensive advanced stats are terrible and for now, you need to see (or hear/read) and understand how good a player is on defense. Bad defense unfortunately does not really show up in WS48. Maybe they will be there one day but not now. Harden looks great on many defensive advance stats and so does/did Iverson. Enough said, no?
So when judging a player and want to use advanced stats, you would at the very least need to know that they are a decent defender. If they are not good defenders then its hard to know how much weight you can give or subtract to WS48.
Again, defensive stats are hard to measure and definitely lagging.
perfectly stated! to me a judging a basketball player means evaluating offense AND defense. all that statistics are good for evaulating offense. defense is more of an eye test evaluation - guarding a man one v one, not fouling, def positioning, def IQ to rotate properly, EFFORT, fighting thru screens (wow i think kanter fails at each one of those categories). a player can be good one offense but if he is SO bad on defense then whats the point. kanter has his mins reduced since hes really THAT BAD on defense. so to me i could never classify him as a good player - unless he improves.
callmened wrote:mreinman wrote:newyorknewyork wrote:mreinman wrote:stopstandthere wrote:It appears that AA has developed some bad habit while he was in Orlando where he was the first option. He become more ball dominating and does not move well while the ball is not with him.
AA was and is pretty much consistently who he is. An under average player who won't pass.
Quick question, what holds more value? WS or WS48?
Also how would you evaluate a guy like Enes Kanter who's WS/WS48 has taken a leap due to the reduced role? His WS/WS48 went from scrubby in Utah to pretty good in OKC?
Jose Calderon's TS% has been great throughout his career and his WS/WS48 for most of his career have been pretty solid. Way better then what he has displayed with the Knicks. Before these last 2 seasons which Lowry has exploded and Calderon dropped. Calderon held higher TS and WS/WS48.
Tiago Splitter has had the WS/48 that if he got 36mins a game would be one of the best centers in the NBA.
These are legit questions and comments i'm presenting to understand this better, not sarcastic comments and questions saying that its BS.
kanter is a great example and so is monroe.
Defensive advanced stats are terrible and for now, you need to see (or hear/read) and understand how good a player is on defense. Bad defense unfortunately does not really show up in WS48. Maybe they will be there one day but not now. Harden looks great on many defensive advance stats and so does/did Iverson. Enough said, no?
So when judging a player and want to use advanced stats, you would at the very least need to know that they are a decent defender. If they are not good defenders then its hard to know how much weight you can give or subtract to WS48.
Again, defensive stats are hard to measure and definitely lagging.
perfectly stated! to me a judging a basketball player means evaluating offense AND defense. all that statistics are good for evaulating offense. defense is more of an eye test evaluation - guarding a man one v one, not fouling, def positioning, def IQ to rotate properly, EFFORT, fighting thru screens (wow i think kanter fails at each one of those categories). a player can be good one offense but if he is SO bad on defense then whats the point. kanter has his mins reduced since hes really THAT BAD on defense. so to me i could never classify him as a good player - unless he improves.
Point being his win shares proclaim that since going to the Thunder he has been a good player. So if Kanter was a free agent he would come off as a guy if given 30+mins a game would be a star big man for your team. But most likely this wouldn't be the case. It seems Kanter is doing well because his role is defined and it is specific to his skill set without asking him to be more. They have enough talent in OKC to do that. And is he a case study of players being able to improve there win shares by playing in roles and situations that suit them?
