fwk00 wrote:For the record and from a previous post;"Assuming a happy ending train of thought (no major injuries to key players (Melo, KP, JG, Rolo, Afflo)) I'm predicting 42 wins. I discount the 17 win season as an attempt to secure a decent draft pick (which we did). Had the team not suffered the injuries and player turnover, they could have won mid-twenties games - say 24.
Most pundits are simply doubling the red herring 17 wins and coming up low-thirties. I think that's a worst case scenario. I see the downside at 32 wins. I think 42 - 45 (a little better than .500-ish) is very possible with the wind of good health at the team's back. I'm factoring in that other teams will have their injuries and problems.
I think Phil will make a trade move in Dec. or January - say two deep bench players for a quality veteran pine brother from some under-performing team looking to jettison salaries and maybe promote a D-Leaguer. Too early to speculate about specifics at this point in time."
that is a bad assumption. I am assuming injuries for Melo, KP, Rolo, AA. I think that they will all miss a minimum of 20 games.
35 Wins with an upside of 42.
if we get a healthy 70ish games from RoLo and Melo 45 wins.
This will be a good team. A big injury to one of thoese two could derail the season.
I like this roster a lot! I think they could get between 44-48 wins this year. Looks like we'll have a deep rotation which hopefully will keep players healthy. People like to bash other posters for season predictions but health and in the past, dysfunction and trades, have had major impacts. Last year is hopefully the last really crazy turmoil filled season for a long time. It would be nice to have a long stretch of consistently good basketball.
I think between 42-45 is possible.
I hope people don't jump off the bandwagon if Milwaukee blows us out in Game 1. Milwaukee is going to be very good this year, let's try not to overreact if they blow the crap out of us in their home opener. (However if they win that game, I'll probably be very overly enthusiastic about the season!)
mreinman wrote:fwk00 wrote:For the record and from a previous post;"Assuming a happy ending train of thought (no major injuries to key players (Melo, KP, JG, Rolo, Afflo)) I'm predicting 42 wins. I discount the 17 win season as an attempt to secure a decent draft pick (which we did). Had the team not suffered the injuries and player turnover, they could have won mid-twenties games - say 24.
Most pundits are simply doubling the red herring 17 wins and coming up low-thirties. I think that's a worst case scenario. I see the downside at 32 wins. I think 42 - 45 (a little better than .500-ish) is very possible with the wind of good health at the team's back. I'm factoring in that other teams will have their injuries and problems.
I think Phil will make a trade move in Dec. or January - say two deep bench players for a quality veteran pine brother from some under-performing team looking to jettison salaries and maybe promote a D-Leaguer. Too early to speculate about specifics at this point in time."
that is a bad assumption. I am assuming injuries for Melo, KP, Rolo, AA. I think that they will all miss a minimum of 20 games.
@mreinman - a "happy ending" prediction is just that. In other words, no season crippling injuries. AND, I offered a downside prediction to account for a major injury.
All of the players you mention may not play every game, that's true. But it looks like you are implying a worst case scenario that decimates all the players we're counting on at exactly the very point in time that we'd need them to win.
If you want a safe worst-case, the sky is falling prediction, I'll say zero wins. And if we want to continue with the Debbie Downer predictions let's say Fisher gets replaced by Woodson, Phil quits, Isiah comes back as GM, Krisp is worse than Shawn Bradley, DW goes to a pony ranch in Nevada and takes drug after drug, Jerian Grant can't dribble, Lou Amundson gets lazy,...
How wacky should we get with downside scenarios? I can think of more... Isola could be a prophet.
I'm waiting to see how this team plays against a really athletic team that can shoot from outside. Like a Milwaukee or a Phoenix or Golden State or something. They haven't really played too many good teams in pre-season - though there are signs that they have a very good and deep squad.
Not sure how their style will look against some of those "pace and space" teams. It'll be interesting to see.
48 wins 2nd rd playoffs this team reminds me of the 54 win team a lot but w more depth I'll stay just a tad under 50 because of Calderon and as a fan hope we can make a move to find a better starting pg
fwk00 wrote:mreinman wrote:fwk00 wrote:For the record and from a previous post;"Assuming a happy ending train of thought (no major injuries to key players (Melo, KP, JG, Rolo, Afflo)) I'm predicting 42 wins. I discount the 17 win season as an attempt to secure a decent draft pick (which we did). Had the team not suffered the injuries and player turnover, they could have won mid-twenties games - say 24.
Most pundits are simply doubling the red herring 17 wins and coming up low-thirties. I think that's a worst case scenario. I see the downside at 32 wins. I think 42 - 45 (a little better than .500-ish) is very possible with the wind of good health at the team's back. I'm factoring in that other teams will have their injuries and problems.
I think Phil will make a trade move in Dec. or January - say two deep bench players for a quality veteran pine brother from some under-performing team looking to jettison salaries and maybe promote a D-Leaguer. Too early to speculate about specifics at this point in time."
that is a bad assumption. I am assuming injuries for Melo, KP, Rolo, AA. I think that they will all miss a minimum of 20 games.
@mreinman - a "happy ending" prediction is just that. In other words, no season crippling injuries. AND, I offered a downside prediction to account for a major injury.
All of the players you mention may not play every game, that's true. But it looks like you are implying a worst case scenario that decimates all the players we're counting on at exactly the very point in time that we'd need them to win.
If you want a safe worst-case, the sky is falling prediction, I'll say zero wins. And if we want to continue with the Debbie Downer predictions let's say Fisher gets replaced by Woodson, Phil quits, Isiah comes back as GM, Krisp is worse than Shawn Bradley, DW goes to a pony ranch in Nevada and takes drug after drug, Jerian Grant can't dribble, Lou Amundson gets lazy,...
How wacky should we get with downside scenarios? I can think of more... Isola could be a prophet.
assuming that they will each miss 20+ games is a smart prediction not a debbie downer prediction.
I try to predict based on facts not meaningless gut.
If melo plays 70+ games, I think that we win 45 games.
I think if we can stay pretty healthy we can get 42-45 wins
damn. i wish i posted this at the start of the season. but my hope and expectations were a 34 win team. with the new talent they should be able to double the win total. if things go they could sneak into the playoffs (only to get annihilated in the 1st rd)
callmened wrote:damn. i wish i posted this at the start of the season. but my hope and expectations were a 34 win team. with the new talent they should be able to double the win total. if things go they could sneak into the playoffs (only to get annihilated in the 1st rd)
I think there were other prediction threads too. I was saying somewhere around 30 wins. It's probably going to be low 30s.
JrZyHuStLa wrote:nixluva wrote:I like this roster a lot! I think they could get between 44-48 wins this year. Looks like we'll have a deep rotation which hopefully will keep players healthy. People like to bash other posters for season predictions but health and in the past, dysfunction and trades, have had major impacts. Last year is hopefully the last really crazy turmoil filled season for a long time. It would be nice to have a long stretch of consistently good basketball.
LOL this guy...
Why is this kind of post necessary? What would be the point of this other than to start trouble? I don't even recall any recent beef between you and I so what's the impetus for doing this?
nixluva wrote:JrZyHuStLa wrote:nixluva wrote:I like this roster a lot! I think they could get between 44-48 wins this year. Looks like we'll have a deep rotation which hopefully will keep players healthy. People like to bash other posters for season predictions but health and in the past, dysfunction and trades, have had major impacts. Last year is hopefully the last really crazy turmoil filled season for a long time. It would be nice to have a long stretch of consistently good basketball.
LOL this guy...
Why is this kind of post necessary? What would be the point of this other than to start trouble? I don't even recall any recent beef between you and I so what's the impetus for doing this?
i dont think he meant anything disrespectful. Youre a very optimistic poster which i respect even if some proclamations might be a tall order
arkrud wrote:33 - nice number
Still stay with my nice number... I hope they will not disappoint me.
