Knicks · Article: KOQ to Celts for 35th pick? (page 2)
EwingsGlass wrote:For me, if a fan is offering the 35 pick, there is some possibility that he's more valuable. His 17 PER in limited minutes have value, the question is whether we need him to provide depth. In trying to get the match ups we want for KrisP at C, not sure there are enough minutes for KOQ and Rolo. His $4mm contract is a good deal, so we don't need to trade him unless we get something we like, but the opening Bid-Ask would be a high 2nd rounder.
Y do the Celtics need KOQ? If I was them--Id ask the Knicks for a number 1 pick to take on the salary. He can play--maybe well give him more chance with Hornacek but his value is not too high.
BRIGGS wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:For me, if a fan is offering the 35 pick, there is some possibility that he's more valuable. His 17 PER in limited minutes have value, the question is whether we need him to provide depth. In trying to get the match ups we want for KrisP at C, not sure there are enough minutes for KOQ and Rolo. His $4mm contract is a good deal, so we don't need to trade him unless we get something we like, but the opening Bid-Ask would be a high 2nd rounder.Y do the Celtics need KOQ? If I was them--Id ask the Knicks for a number 1 pick to take on the salary. He can play--maybe well give him more chance with Hornacek but his value is not too high.
Average PER of an NBA player getting 20 or so minutes a game is 15. KOQ recorded a 17 last year. Above average.
Median salary of any veteran player is going to be approximately 7.5mm this year. KOQ makes 4. That's below average.
Stats can be misleading and prices can be arbitrary. That said, on paper you have an above average player at below average cost. That's the definition of value.
All I am saying is Kyle's production is worth more than $4m a year.
franco12 wrote:Jmpasq wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:crzymdups wrote:mreinman wrote:I can't believe that Ainge is this dumbIt's not a rumor, it's an opinion piece by a fan.
It's really not a dumb move as the likely hood of a 2nd rder out producing O'Quinn is very unlikely. Despite O'Quinn having a bad year he was quite productive. He's played enough NBA minutes to determine that he is a legit quality NBA player.
Yep, 2nd rounders even high ones more likely than not arent NBA players. O'Quinn can be a back of rotation player
Just realized- best comparison here - would you trade KOQ for Cleanthony Early?
Do I need to comment?
I think its 50/50 that Early is even in the league next year, let alone plays.
At least you know KOQ can play serviceable minutes at the 4/5.
Would you trade KOQ for Jordan Clarkson?
EwingsGlass wrote:BRIGGS wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:For me, if a fan is offering the 35 pick, there is some possibility that he's more valuable. His 17 PER in limited minutes have value, the question is whether we need him to provide depth. In trying to get the match ups we want for KrisP at C, not sure there are enough minutes for KOQ and Rolo. His $4mm contract is a good deal, so we don't need to trade him unless we get something we like, but the opening Bid-Ask would be a high 2nd rounder.Y do the Celtics need KOQ? If I was them--Id ask the Knicks for a number 1 pick to take on the salary. He can play--maybe well give him more chance with Hornacek but his value is not too high.
Average PER of an NBA player getting 20 or so minutes a game is 15. KOQ recorded a 17 last year. Above average.
Median salary of any veteran player is going to be approximately 7.5mm this year. KOQ makes 4. That's below average.
Stats can be misleading and prices can be arbitrary. That said, on paper you have an above average player at below average cost. That's the definition of value.
All I am saying is Kyle's production is worth more than $4m a year.
I think I can get a player at 35 thats easily just as good as KO but I have to pay him 3.2mm for 4 years. I mean no way. Ill take him at 31 or 35 before KOQ in a second
Remember the bad Knicks would not even play KOQ in some games. I think he should get a chance myself
Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq.
IMO it's not about the 10% chance. It's about how good of a job your scouts do in vetting the talent and finding that quality player that can contribute and FIT the needs of your team. The probability game is IMO quite a useless thing to try and factor into your decision making. Phil and his staff are digging into this talent pool and i'm sure in their minds they're looking for that player they feel will bring the needed talent to the roster. That player doesn't have to match KOQ. He has to fill the need for which he's being drafted.
Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq.
What's funny is that O'Quinn is one of the few second rd success stories. He was pick #49 and was chosen right after the knicks chose Papanikolaou.
It has been said that O'Quinn has bad practice habits that keeps him out of the rotation. That was one of the reasons ORl was willing to let him go.
nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq.
IMO it's not about the 10% chance. It's about how good of a job your scouts do in vetting the talent and finding that quality player that can contribute and FIT the needs of your team. The probability game is IMO quite a useless thing to try and factor into your decision making. Phil and his staff are digging into this talent pool and i'm sure in their minds they're looking for that player they feel will bring the needed talent to the roster. That player doesn't have to match KOQ. He has to fill the need for which he's being drafted.
Eh, if KOQ doesn't fit our needs, trade him for a player with higher expected return than pick 35. If we really do have awesome scouts, I'd rather put them to use finding a current player with higher return to trade KOQ for.
Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq.
Id say thats much higher this year.
Bonn1997 wrote:nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq.
IMO it's not about the 10% chance. It's about how good of a job your scouts do in vetting the talent and finding that quality player that can contribute and FIT the needs of your team. The probability game is IMO quite a useless thing to try and factor into your decision making. Phil and his staff are digging into this talent pool and i'm sure in their minds they're looking for that player they feel will bring the needed talent to the roster. That player doesn't have to match KOQ. He has to fill the need for which he's being drafted.
Eh, if KOQ doesn't fit our needs, trade him for a player with higher expected return than pick 35. If we really do have awesome scouts, I'd rather put them to use finding a current player with higher return to trade KOQ for.
My problem with this take is that in theory what you're saying is totally right, but every single offseason is different. The talent pool is different. So while the averages may work out a certain way over time, the year to year talent pool is not the same. Some years it's better than others. There may not be a trade that addresses the team's needs. It may very well be that the best talent for this team's needs would come in the draft.
nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq.
IMO it's not about the 10% chance. It's about how good of a job your scouts do in vetting the talent and finding that quality player that can contribute and FIT the needs of your team. The probability game is IMO quite a useless thing to try and factor into your decision making. Phil and his staff are digging into this talent pool and i'm sure in their minds they're looking for that player they feel will bring the needed talent to the roster. That player doesn't have to match KOQ. He has to fill the need for which he's being drafted.
Eh, if KOQ doesn't fit our needs, trade him for a player with higher expected return than pick 35. If we really do have awesome scouts, I'd rather put them to use finding a current player with higher return to trade KOQ for.
My problem with this take is that in theory what you're saying is totally right, but every single offseason is different. The talent pool is different. So while the averages may work out a certain way over time, the year to year talent pool is not the same. Some years it's better than others. There may not be a trade that addresses the team's needs. It may very well be that the best talent for this team's needs would come in the draft.
The talent pool this year is pretty bad.
NYKBocker wrote:franco12 wrote:Jmpasq wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:crzymdups wrote:mreinman wrote:I can't believe that Ainge is this dumbIt's not a rumor, it's an opinion piece by a fan.
It's really not a dumb move as the likely hood of a 2nd rder out producing O'Quinn is very unlikely. Despite O'Quinn having a bad year he was quite productive. He's played enough NBA minutes to determine that he is a legit quality NBA player.
Yep, 2nd rounders even high ones more likely than not arent NBA players. O'Quinn can be a back of rotation player
Just realized- best comparison here - would you trade KOQ for Cleanthony Early?
Do I need to comment?
I think its 50/50 that Early is even in the league next year, let alone plays.
At least you know KOQ can play serviceable minutes at the 4/5.
Would you trade KOQ for Jordan Clarkson?
Per Bonn's stat, its a gamble - and a bad one for a team like ours which has so many needs.
If you're rich, I might take that kind of shot. But we're not.
EnySpree wrote:crzymdups wrote:mreinman wrote:I can't believe that Ainge is this dumbIt's not a rumor, it's an opinion piece by a fan.
As opposed to a smart opinion by a douchebag writer?
As opposed to sourced, reported stories by actual reporters. This is a made up fantasy trade by a blogger who didn't talk to a single soul. I mean...
EwingsGlass wrote:BRIGGS wrote:EwingsGlass wrote:For me, if a fan is offering the 35 pick, there is some possibility that he's more valuable. His 17 PER in limited minutes have value, the question is whether we need him to provide depth. In trying to get the match ups we want for KrisP at C, not sure there are enough minutes for KOQ and Rolo. His $4mm contract is a good deal, so we don't need to trade him unless we get something we like, but the opening Bid-Ask would be a high 2nd rounder.Y do the Celtics need KOQ? If I was them--Id ask the Knicks for a number 1 pick to take on the salary. He can play--maybe well give him more chance with Hornacek but his value is not too high.
Average PER of an NBA player getting 20 or so minutes a game is 15. KOQ recorded a 17 last year. Above average.
Median salary of any veteran player is going to be approximately 7.5mm this year. KOQ makes 4. That's below average.
Stats can be misleading and prices can be arbitrary. That said, on paper you have an above average player at below average cost. That's the definition of value.
All I am saying is Kyle's production is worth more than $4m a year.
And with consistent minutes, as well as better coaching, as opposed to the quick hook he kept getting, KOQ represents a better value to the team as opposed to a phantom 2nd rounder.
nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:82games.com's analysis says that there's only a 10% probability of pick #35 even being a role player. I think many here would view koq as already a useful role player. Even if you don't, you'd have to grant that there's at least a 10% chance he improves on his weaknesses, right? I think you need something with higher expected return for koq.
IMO it's not about the 10% chance. It's about how good of a job your scouts do in vetting the talent and finding that quality player that can contribute and FIT the needs of your team. The probability game is IMO quite a useless thing to try and factor into your decision making. Phil and his staff are digging into this talent pool and i'm sure in their minds they're looking for that player they feel will bring the needed talent to the roster. That player doesn't have to match KOQ. He has to fill the need for which he's being drafted.
Eh, if KOQ doesn't fit our needs, trade him for a player with higher expected return than pick 35. If we really do have awesome scouts, I'd rather put them to use finding a current player with higher return to trade KOQ for.
My problem with this take is that in theory what you're saying is totally right, but every single offseason is different. The talent pool is different. So while the averages may work out a certain way over time, the year to year talent pool is not the same. Some years it's better than others. There may not be a trade that addresses the team's needs. It may very well be that the best talent for this team's needs would come in the draft.
Has there ever been a draft where half of the players picked in the 30s turned out to be solid rotation players? If you were talking about a pick closer to 25, this would be a different story. But in addition to the expected value of a pick around 35 being low, you don't automatically have the player locked into a cheap long-term contract like we do with KOQ or would with a first round pick. It's likely that both the player would be worse than KOQ and the contract (no Bird rights) might also be.
franco12 wrote:NYKBocker wrote:franco12 wrote:Jmpasq wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:crzymdups wrote:mreinman wrote:I can't believe that Ainge is this dumbIt's not a rumor, it's an opinion piece by a fan.
It's really not a dumb move as the likely hood of a 2nd rder out producing O'Quinn is very unlikely. Despite O'Quinn having a bad year he was quite productive. He's played enough NBA minutes to determine that he is a legit quality NBA player.
Yep, 2nd rounders even high ones more likely than not arent NBA players. O'Quinn can be a back of rotation player
Just realized- best comparison here - would you trade KOQ for Cleanthony Early?
Do I need to comment?
I think its 50/50 that Early is even in the league next year, let alone plays.
At least you know KOQ can play serviceable minutes at the 4/5.
Would you trade KOQ for Jordan Clarkson?
Per Bonn's stat, its a gamble - and a bad one for a team like ours which has so many needs.
If you're rich, I might take that kind of shot. But we're not.
Also, according to BBall Reference, the average 35 pick produces 10.1 career win shares. KOQ is young, hasn't gotten much playing time, and is already at 7.1! I know Nix is saying this is an incredible draft and we have superb scouts but both seem like wishful thinking. I'm skeptical that in even the strongest draft in NBA history, the 35th pick would have as high an expected value as someone who is already a solid role player.
crzymdups wrote:EnySpree wrote:crzymdups wrote:mreinman wrote:I can't believe that Ainge is this dumbIt's not a rumor, it's an opinion piece by a fan.
As opposed to a smart opinion by a douchebag writer?
As opposed to sourced, reported stories by actual reporters. This is a made up fantasy trade by a blogger who didn't talk to a single soul. I mean...
Follow the tracks of these sources and you might find there isn't much if anything to their source if they sight one. Berman today:
sources have indicated Knicks assistant Brian Keefe, Durant’s workout partner in OKC, won’t be retained under new coach Jeff Hornacek.
http://nypost.com/2016/05/31/sizing-up-t...
Not a stretch to assume this and at least this time he linked to a source but it is another writer from the post speculating Keefe won't be retained.
Hornacek is not expected to retain Derek Fisher’s hires of former Thunder assistants Brian Keefe,
http://nypost.com/2016/05/23/what-will-j...
I agree that it is an opinion piece by a fan but the stuff in the Post and the Daily News is often not actually sourced or is a revisit of previous quotes and comments spun into something provocative.
Bonn1997 wrote:franco12 wrote:NYKBocker wrote:franco12 wrote:Jmpasq wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:crzymdups wrote:mreinman wrote:I can't believe that Ainge is this dumbIt's not a rumor, it's an opinion piece by a fan.
It's really not a dumb move as the likely hood of a 2nd rder out producing O'Quinn is very unlikely. Despite O'Quinn having a bad year he was quite productive. He's played enough NBA minutes to determine that he is a legit quality NBA player.
Yep, 2nd rounders even high ones more likely than not arent NBA players. O'Quinn can be a back of rotation player
Just realized- best comparison here - would you trade KOQ for Cleanthony Early?
Do I need to comment?
I think its 50/50 that Early is even in the league next year, let alone plays.
At least you know KOQ can play serviceable minutes at the 4/5.
Would you trade KOQ for Jordan Clarkson?
Per Bonn's stat, its a gamble - and a bad one for a team like ours which has so many needs.
If you're rich, I might take that kind of shot. But we're not.
Also, according to BBall Reference, the average 35 pick produces 10.1 career win shares. KOQ is young, hasn't gotten much playing time, and is already at 7.1! I know Nix is saying this is an incredible draft and we have superb scouts but both seem like wishful thinking. I'm skeptical that in even the strongest draft in NBA history, the 35th pick would have as high an expected value as someone who is already a solid role player.
When did I ever say this was an incredible draft??? It doesn't have to be an overall incredible draft if you pick the right player!!! That's what i'm talking about. The Knicks are hunting for very specific needs and not just BPA as you would at the top of the draft. This is about the right Role players and not hoping for a potential Superstar to magically fall to the 2nd rd.
The idea is to get a role player that will help the team in areas of real weakness and that can give the team production in a way that moves the team in the right direction. If they can land a 3nD SG or a PG that can shoot and breakdown a D, that would benefit the team much more than what we got from KOQ. Those kinds of players are going to be available in this draft.
nixluva wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:franco12 wrote:NYKBocker wrote:franco12 wrote:Jmpasq wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:crzymdups wrote:mreinman wrote:I can't believe that Ainge is this dumbIt's not a rumor, it's an opinion piece by a fan.
It's really not a dumb move as the likely hood of a 2nd rder out producing O'Quinn is very unlikely. Despite O'Quinn having a bad year he was quite productive. He's played enough NBA minutes to determine that he is a legit quality NBA player.
Yep, 2nd rounders even high ones more likely than not arent NBA players. O'Quinn can be a back of rotation player
Just realized- best comparison here - would you trade KOQ for Cleanthony Early?
Do I need to comment?
I think its 50/50 that Early is even in the league next year, let alone plays.
At least you know KOQ can play serviceable minutes at the 4/5.
Would you trade KOQ for Jordan Clarkson?
Per Bonn's stat, its a gamble - and a bad one for a team like ours which has so many needs.
If you're rich, I might take that kind of shot. But we're not.
Also, according to BBall Reference, the average 35 pick produces 10.1 career win shares. KOQ is young, hasn't gotten much playing time, and is already at 7.1! I know Nix is saying this is an incredible draft and we have superb scouts but both seem like wishful thinking. I'm skeptical that in even the strongest draft in NBA history, the 35th pick would have as high an expected value as someone who is already a solid role player.
When did I ever say this was an incredible draft??? It doesn't have to be an overall incredible draft if you pick the right player!!! That's what i'm talking about. The Knicks are hunting for very specific needs and not just BPA as you would at the top of the draft. This is about the right Role players and not hoping for a potential Superstar to magically fall to the 2nd rd.The idea is to get a role player that will help the team in areas of real weakness and that can give the team production in a way that moves the team in the right direction. If they can land a 3nD SG or a PG that can shoot and breakdown a D, that would benefit the team much more than what we got from KOQ. Those kinds of players are going to be available in this draft.
I think that you are missing Bonn's point ... of course the knicks are looking for a specific type of player but chances are (10%) that this player won't make the rotation.
Therefore, you have a much better chance with KOQ (who I don't personally care for, especially with him chucking long triangle 2's).