I'll write this down and we can come back to it in 5 years. Pro sports(all of them) are in a financial bubble. Teams and players have pressed on salaries ticket costs and tv rights for to long.
Those days are now done. With Espn who is the biggest gorilla of them all simply firing main staff with dramatic and increasing viewer decline-- you are at the apex of a bubble which just had it's first pin inserted. Now watch what happens over the next decade
ESPN has been lousy for years now. Their programming absolutely atrocious and unwatchable. If it weren't for the NFL I would completely stop watching it. Even NFL experienced a drop in viewership.
totally disagree. You are using ESPN as a gauge for pro sports?
When people stop watching and caring the bubble will burst. Until then its quite healthy.
Are the arenas full? How is attendance?
Are the networks paying for TV contracts?
Are the advertisers paying the networks?
The pro sports economy is doing very well. Pro football is down as the product has issues, but baseball, hockey and the NBA are all up and continues to grow and be healthy.
ESPN had a bloodbath becauase THEIR product stinks, not because pro sports is in trouble. First domino is attendance. When that drops its Houston we have a problem. It hasnt happened.
on a side note I saw a Red Bulls game in Newark over the weekend. Awesome experience. I would go back.
ESPN put up a decent chunk of the recent NBA tv deal that bumped that cap up to $108M.
There's going to be a reckoning on the next TV deal for sure, I think.
I don't think it's a bubble that will burst, but I think things will have to be recalibrated.
The NBA has been good about embracing the web via streaming and letting places like twitter show short clips. The NBA is really the best sport to show a ten second highlight of one play, far more so than the NFL or MLB or tennis or whatever.
I think the NBA will be fine.
The real reckoning will come in terms of cable television networks.
THOUGH, the FCC just announced its plan to "reverse the mistake" of Net Neutrality. That move is surely being pushed by the big internet companies and cable companies, too. They'll find a way to get people to pay for what they watch, and pay heavily. Prepare for Netflix and the like to start costing more money. And an effect of that is that it may drive people back to cable. We'll see, but the Net Neutrality ruling will figure into all this.
Also, ESPN is owned by Disney, which owns Star Wars and the Marvel Universe and ABC and the Disney IP. They aren't going anywhere.
It's certainly interesting to watch it all play out though.
Briggs bubble might be a stretch, but there is a saturation point regarding return on investment and when that dwindles, prices fall. It won't be for tickets, it will be franchise prices.
A pessimist is seen as a wise sage while the optimist is generally viewed as a fool.
BRIGGS wrote:I'll write this down and we can come back to it in 5 years. Pro sports(all of them) are in a financial bubble. Teams and players have pressed on salaries ticket costs and tv rights for to long.
Those days are now done. With Espn who is the biggest gorilla of them all simply firing main staff with dramatic and increasing viewer decline-- you are at the apex of a bubble which just had it's first pin inserted. Now watch what happens over the next decade
I have 2-3 ESPN channels that never show anything. Sometimes shows are preempted, and they dont use the empty channels to show them.
They've spent a lot of money to grow the audience, the bill is due. They also take a good idea and do it do death.
What will cause the pro sports bubble to burst is prices that no one can afford. Its already pretty damned expensive to go see most pro teams in the US.
I think the real bubbles in the economy are the tech speculation market in Silicon Valley.
This stupid juicer somehow got $120M in investors! It's a juicer! And to make matters worse, people figured out you could just squeeze the bags of juice yourself and you don't even need the $400 juicer!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/...
I also think the student loan racket is a bubble that is going to collapse in on itself again.
Also, real estate bubble is making a comeback. Look around manhattan at how many empty store fronts there are. I don't live in town anymore, but back on a recent business trip, I was astounded at how many empty store fronts there are. Even on Madison Ave in the 60s and 70s blocks.
I think we are headed for a massive crash. I think sports are probably relatively safe, all things considered.
I don't think there's a pro sports bubble but do worry about NBA. At moment they're doing well because of international growth but euro leagues and Chinese leagues will modulate that some
I think the product is suffering for a number of reasons including referee impact on games, super teams [locked in mediocrity for most], and poor public image (e.g., guaranteed contracts even if you stink don't resonate with the common man -- common man likes football contracts; see also Lebron and The Decision, KD and the decision)
game needs fixing
I tend to agree Briggs- sports as a whole has pushed for every last dollar. I can't afford to pay retail to bring my family to a game - let alone season tickets.
I remember thinking they had pushed too far with the new stadium for the Giants & Jets, and the Mets - with their PSLs and whatnot.
I don't know how it will come back to earth, but there is a disconnect when Lebron James et al is getting paid the kind of money they make - and I'm just speaking as an ordinary person who tries to do their best for their family.
crzymdups wrote:ESPN put up a decent chunk of the recent NBA tv deal that bumped that cap up to $108M.There's going to be a reckoning on the next TV deal for sure, I think.
I don't think it's a bubble that will burst, but I think things will have to be recalibrated.
The NBA has been good about embracing the web via streaming and letting places like twitter show short clips. The NBA is really the best sport to show a ten second highlight of one play, far more so than the NFL or MLB or tennis or whatever.
I think the NBA will be fine.
The real reckoning will come in terms of cable television networks.
THOUGH, the FCC just announced its plan to "reverse the mistake" of Net Neutrality. That move is surely being pushed by the big internet companies and cable companies, too. They'll find a way to get people to pay for what they watch, and pay heavily. Prepare for Netflix and the like to start costing more money. And an effect of that is that it may drive people back to cable. We'll see, but the Net Neutrality ruling will figure into all this.
Also, ESPN is owned by Disney, which owns Star Wars and the Marvel Universe and ABC and the Disney IP. They aren't going anywhere.
It's certainly interesting to watch it all play out though.
It's known that Disney wants to dump espn. It's the loser of Disney companies.
ESPN hired Mina Kimes, they got something right!
CrushAlot wrote:
I was shocked to see this one. He seems like their main NBA reporter
crzymdups wrote:CrushAlot wrote:
I was shocked to see this one. He seems like their main NBA reporter
I know. He is probably the second best reporter in the industry after Woj for breaking news.
martin wrote:Chad Ford gone too:
Wow. Didn't Chad start one of the first really good nba sites way back when? I can't even remember what it was called but I think espn bought it and made turned their info into insider.
^^^Checked in on Chad's twitter. It looks like he didn't expect it. He was tweeting about Stein and truehoop. I hope Kevin Pelton doesn't get let go.
crzymdups wrote:I think the real bubbles in the economy are the tech speculation market in Silicon Valley.This stupid juicer somehow got $120M in investors! It's a juicer! And to make matters worse, people figured out you could just squeeze the bags of juice yourself and you don't even need the $400 juicer!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/...
I also think the student loan racket is a bubble that is going to collapse in on itself again.
Also, real estate bubble is making a comeback. Look around manhattan at how many empty store fronts there are. I don't live in town anymore, but back on a recent business trip, I was astounded at how many empty store fronts there are. Even on Madison Ave in the 60s and 70s blocks.
I think we are headed for a massive crash. I think sports are probably relatively safe, all things considered.
Lol, I saw that. I wonder if the investors can sue for their funds back. They were promised something that could tkae raw fruit chucks and turn it into juice in a clean way. Sports is doing fine. The NFL was hurt by them cramming advertising but those people just ended up watching the NBA.
crzymdups wrote:ESPN put up a decent chunk of the recent NBA tv deal that bumped that cap up to $108M.There's going to be a reckoning on the next TV deal for sure, I think.
I don't think it's a bubble that will burst, but I think things will have to be recalibrated.
The NBA has been good about embracing the web via streaming and letting places like twitter show short clips. The NBA is really the best sport to show a ten second highlight of one play, far more so than the NFL or MLB or tennis or whatever.
I think the NBA will be fine.
The real reckoning will come in terms of cable television networks.
THOUGH, the FCC just announced its plan to "reverse the mistake" of Net Neutrality. That move is surely being pushed by the big internet companies and cable companies, too. They'll find a way to get people to pay for what they watch, and pay heavily. Prepare for Netflix and the like to start costing more money. And an effect of that is that it may drive people back to cable. We'll see, but the Net Neutrality ruling will figure into all this.
Also, ESPN is owned by Disney, which owns Star Wars and the Marvel Universe and ABC and the Disney IP. They aren't going anywhere.
It's certainly interesting to watch it all play out though.
Everything is changing very quickly. How many people do you know that use waze instead of buying a gps? Why pay for satellite radio when you can stream podcasts, pandora etc. People make a living blogging but print journalists are losing their job at an alarming rate. Streaming sites are in hd etc. I don't know if regulations can catch up with the technology that is out there. Netflix and other streaming services might be regulated but there are others that won't be (i.e. playon).
This will,all lead to the NBA next contract being scaled back...all of these contracts over the next 3 to 4 yrs will look absolutely ridiculous....even the ones that deserve 200 mill...if anyone...the issue is that after the cap goes over 100 mill...how do you take it down in the next cba....ESPN overpaid and they realize it now trying to offset their controllable costs...which is a drop in the bucket....no one else is going to step and pay billions for dwindling viewership....Lebron will be gone in 5 yrs...who the heck else will captivate the NBA stratosphere
