Knicks · Historical Draft Day Trades and Implications for rumored Portland/Detroit trades (page 1)

In the light of recent rumours surrounding trades with Portland/Detroit for Moe Harkless/various draft picks, I thought it would be useful to attempt to assign values to Knick assets, as opposed to taking a wild stab in the dark. I looked at recent trades dating back the past five years to guage what Knicks assets could reasonably fetch in return (hat tip to www.thedraftreview.com):

#8 pick

in 2015, Sacramento traded the #8 pick (Marquese Chriss) to Phoenix for the #13(Georgios Papagiannis), #28 (Skal Labissiere), a 2020 second round pick and Bogdan Bogdanovic (unsigned 27th pick in 2014 draft)
in 2014, Philadelphia traded the #10 pick (Elfrid Payton), a 2015 second rounder and a return of Philly's own top 10 protected 2017 pick
in 2013, Minnesota traded the #9 pick (Trey Burke) to Utah for the #14 (Shabazz Muhammad) and #21 (Gorgui Dieng) picks

so it would be reasonable to expect that the #8 pick this year can return Portland's #15,#20, and #26 picks (at a minimum) and possibly a mid second round pick in the future

#44 pick

in 2013, Utah traded the #46 pick (Erick Greene) and cash to Denver for the #27 pick (Rudy Gobert)
in 2013, Milwaukee traded the #43 pick (Ricky Ledo) and a 2014 Brooklyn Nets second round pick for #38 (Nate Wolters)
in 2013, Portland traded the #40 pick (Grant Jarrett) to OKC for cash
in 2014, Washington traded the #46 pick (Jordan Clarkson) to LAL for cash
in 2016, Milwaukee traded the #38 pick (Patrick McCaw) to Golden State for cash
in 2016, New Orleans traded the #39 pick (David Michineau) and #40 pick (Diamond Stone) to LAC for the #33 pick (Chieck Diallo)

so it would seem that #44 and either cash or a future second round pick could get us Portland's #26 pick, or possibly Utah's #24 and definitely Utah's #30

Courtney Lee

in 2016, Sacramento traded Marco Belinelli to Charlotte for the #22 pick (Malachi Richardson)
in 2016, Brooklyn traded Thaddeus Young to Indiana for the #20 pick (Caris Levert) and a top 45 protected 2018 pick

I couldn't really find any other trades in the last five years, but the above two trades would indicate that Courtney Lee's value is probably between #20 and #22, so unless other pieces are added, I don't see Detroit trading #12 to us

Kyle O'Quinn

I would peg his value at #30-#32, with Moe Harkless at between #28-#30

so I think a sensible trade for both sides is Kyle O'Quinn, #44 and cash for Moe Harkless and #26. for what it's worth I don't think Portland is at a stage where it needs to dump contracts using draft picks - there's still plenty of time for them to pursue various options. However, this trade makes too much sense for both sides for it not to go through. Portland has no real depth at center (Meyers Leonard(!!) is currently the backup center) and Kyle O'Quinn would fill that hole admirably whilst providing insurance against Jusuf Nurkic's injuries and upcoming free agency. Harkless brings youth, three point shooting and strong defense at the SF and PF positions for the Knicks. He's an upgrade and also has a reasonable contract. At #26, the Knicks could pursue a lower cost back up center (Bam Adebayo, Tony Bradley, Thomas Bryant) - I don't see them willing to pay $10MM+ to Kyle in free agency when he opts out at the end of the 2017-18 season. Portland shaves about $8MM in current salary obligations with the trade, and they can offload a combination of Noah Vonleh, Shabazz Napier or Ed Davis to get under the tax line over the upcoming season.

Correction: I meant to say that in 2014, Philadelphia traded the #10 pick (Elfrid Payton) for Dario Saric (#12 pick), a 2015 second rounder and a return of Philly's own top 10 protected 2017 pick

Also, I would just say that the value for Kyle O'Quinn and Moe Harkless is just a guess - I may be too low (or too high) but I think the differential of 2 slots is about right.

Nice write up.

I am hoping Knick can pull off Harkless, Aminu & #15 in salary dumps.

Great write up. My only caveat is were any of the trade's salary dumps where a player was given alongside a pick for salary cap reasons?

Also the Gobert trade has me wondering if we could maybe grab pick #26 for pick #44 and cash. So for example Knicks take Harkless, #pick 20, and pick #26 and trade the Blazers pick #44 and cash?

Great work.
Puts in perspective what we would be dealing with.

This is how the roster looks right now contracts/rotation wise.

Hernangomez/O'Quinn/Noah
Porzingis/Thomas
Melo/Kuzminskas
Lee/Holiday* (FA with early bird rights)
Baker/Randle

+
8th pick in draft
19-20M in capspace if we rescind rights to Rose.

Looks like Phil wants to trade the players north of 30 in the current projecting starting 5 which is why you see Lee in trade talks, as we as the clear indication he wants to trade Melo. Look at the above roster and rotation. If you deal Melo and Lee, the starting 5 is likely all in their 20's, and probably on rookie level contracts/entry contracts in the league. The team will be in all out re-build, and aside from Noah, not one player north of 30.

The rumors heading into this draft make it seem like we are definitely heading into an all out rebuild phase. If the rumors are true and we want to move CLee, that's the only veteran aside from Melo who can start for us. You trade CLee for draft assets/talent, you are looking to get younger and more athletic possibly. The more complicated move will be dealing Melo.

ccinflushing wrote:

#44 pick

in 2013, Utah traded the #46 pick (Erick Greene) and cash to Denver for the #27 pick (Rudy Gobert)
in 2013, Milwaukee traded the #43 pick (Ricky Ledo) and a 2014 Brooklyn Nets second round pick for #38 (Nate Wolters)
in 2013, Portland traded the #40 pick (Grant Jarrett) to OKC for cash
in 2014, Washington traded the #46 pick (Jordan Clarkson) to LAL for cash
in 2016, Milwaukee traded the #38 pick (Patrick McCaw) to Golden State for cash
in 2016, New Orleans traded the #39 pick (David Michineau) and #40 pick (Diamond Stone) to LAC for the #33 pick (Chieck Diallo)

so it would seem that #44 and either cash or a future second round pick could get us Portland's #26 pick, or possibly Utah's #24 and definitely Utah's #30

One of the issues with trading a very late first is the issue of guaranteed money. Under the old system, rookies got a minimum of three years guaranteed if they were a first round pick. Now it's two years. The difference in talent value and potential of the 29th or 30th pick in the draft versus say the 41st pick is not so extreme. But once you get into the 2nd round, none of those guys require any guaranteed money at all. Teams trying to save money or teams up hard against the cap threshold will take the evaluation. The slight improvement in getting a better player, is that worth more than the cap space implied or the cash savings implied to the franchise. Teams with luxury tax considerations and the rare team needing to hit the cap floor have to weigh this out.

Another unspoken issue is to maintain goodwill with some agents, some teams will use some of their 3 million cash allotment to buy a 2nd round pick and draft a player. A player that might have no real shot at making the team or stay in the NBA, but that the agent has another "drafted player" in his general pool is some cache for him to keep trying to sign other future players to his agency. David Falk regularly leveraged his Michael Jordan relationship into essentially forcing the Bulls to draft some very specific and honestly not so useful back end guys simply as gestures of goodwill to his agency.

In Portlands current case, the money savings by dumping a first doesn't give them the cap traction that would be achieved by trying to use the pick or picks to drive off existing and larger salary off the roster. Their depth structure also would indicate more cost controlled guys are their only talent infusion option as being backed up against the cap essentially locks them out of this next free agency.

Thank you for this research and this post. It is sadly going unnoticed or not acknowledged by most here, but should be.

The resource management aspect to professional sports IMHO is pretty interesting. Sadly most people in general and honestly most people here seem to just not care.

nyknickzingis wrote:Great work.
Puts in perspective what we would be dealing with.

This is how the roster looks right now contracts/rotation wise.

Hernangomez/O'Quinn/Noah
Porzingis/Thomas
Melo/Kuzminskas
Lee/Holiday* (FA with early bird rights)
Baker/Randle

+
8th pick in draft
19-20M in capspace if we rescind rights to Rose.

Looks like Phil wants to trade the players north of 30 in the current projecting starting 5 which is why you see Lee in trade talks, as we as the clear indication he wants to trade Melo. Look at the above roster and rotation. If you deal Melo and Lee, the starting 5 is likely all in their 20's, and probably on rookie level contracts/entry contracts in the league. The team will be in all out re-build, and aside from Noah, not one player north of 30.

The rumors heading into this draft make it seem like we are definitely heading into an all out rebuild phase. If the rumors are true and we want to move CLee, that's the only veteran aside from Melo who can start for us. You trade CLee for draft assets/talent, you are looking to get younger and more athletic possibly. The more complicated move will be dealing Melo.

Guard centric league and once again we have the worst collection in the NBA

Jmpasq wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:Great work.
Puts in perspective what we would be dealing with.

This is how the roster looks right now contracts/rotation wise.

Hernangomez/O'Quinn/Noah
Porzingis/Thomas
Melo/Kuzminskas
Lee/Holiday* (FA with early bird rights)
Baker/Randle

+
8th pick in draft
19-20M in capspace if we rescind rights to Rose.

Looks like Phil wants to trade the players north of 30 in the current projecting starting 5 which is why you see Lee in trade talks, as we as the clear indication he wants to trade Melo. Look at the above roster and rotation. If you deal Melo and Lee, the starting 5 is likely all in their 20's, and probably on rookie level contracts/entry contracts in the league. The team will be in all out re-build, and aside from Noah, not one player north of 30.

The rumors heading into this draft make it seem like we are definitely heading into an all out rebuild phase. If the rumors are true and we want to move CLee, that's the only veteran aside from Melo who can start for us. You trade CLee for draft assets/talent, you are looking to get younger and more athletic possibly. The more complicated move will be dealing Melo.

Guard centric league and once again we have the worst collection in the NBA

The point of all this is to change that via the draft captain obvious