Knicks · Quietly Knicks have put together a lottery tanking type of young core without actually tanking (page 1)

You look at Sixers, Suns, Lakers, Kings, Magic. These teams are in the lottery every of the last few years, tanking as much as they can in most cases. The Knicks on the other hand were royally screwed with the pre-Phil Jackson era of poor trades with sending out draft picks. We lost two draft picks in the process of these last 4 drafts. Yet, here we are stacking up pretty ok against these complete tank projects.

Lets define real lottery level talent. Players who in a re-draft would still go in the lottery, top 10 to be more precise. Players that are first or second all rookie team caliber for their draft class.

Re-draft 2013-14 class

Giannis
Gobert
CJ
Porter
Shroedor
Oladipo
Noel
Hardaway

We have 8th best player (arguably).

Re-draft 2015-16 class

Towns
Jokic
Porzingis
Booker
Turner
Russell

We have the third best player from this draft class.

Re-draft the 2016-17 class

Embiid
Brongdon
Ingram
Brown
Hield
Saric
Dunn
Hernangomez
Murray

Willy's about in the 8-10 range for this class

Now for this most recent draft lets add Simmons, since he is coming over as a rookie now. A little early to judge, so lets go by draft order plus adding Simmons

Simmons
Fultz
Ball
Tatum
Jackson
Fox
Isaac
Lauri
Smith (lets assume Dennis has proven he deserved to be drafted higher even though it's waaay early)
Ntilikina

So where we stand

Porzingis - 3rd best player of his class
Hardaway - 8th best player of his class
Willy - 8th best player of his class
Ntilikina - 10th pick type of projection

Like I said quietly, despite not having lost two draft picks in 4 years, we have been able to stock up on young talent that would be ranked very well amongst the draft class they entered the league with. I would argue for value, Porzingis (our best player) would only be second to Towns on the trade front. Say what you want about the dysfunction, the poor job Phil/Mills or whomever does, we have quietly put together 4 pieces that would make a good foundation for a re-build. Doesn't mean you win championships with these players in a year or two, but this is what re-building is all about.

Knicks need to be patient and keep drafting well. Lets see how Frank plays. I hope he shows why we picked him at 8. 7 foot wingspan, NBA level athleticims, 6'5 point guards do not grow on trees. He has a rare blend of talent, lets see if he can show why we drafted him. Youngest player in the league next year.

The next story still isn't told yet. They still have this Melo trade and could pickup some good players. Plus they can sign people. So you never know what we're going to look like when the dust settles.

You put Jokic over KP ? Jokic is good, but no way he is overall better than KP

Out absolutely no trade happens and Melo continues to "lead" us to 37 wins.

Gudris wrote:You put Jokic over KP ? Jokic is good, but no way he is overall better than KP

When I do rankings, I try to be as unbiased as possible.
Based on last year, Jokic is the better player.
Based on longterm potential and talent, KP.

Can't give KP credit for that when he hasn't shown it yet. If you think Jokic is not better than KP based on last year, I think you're not following their numbers and overall impact.

nyknickzingis wrote:You look at Sixers, Suns, Lakers, Kings, Magic. These teams are in the lottery every of the last few years, tanking as much as they can in most cases. The Knicks on the other hand were royally screwed with the pre-Phil Jackson era of poor trades with sending out draft picks. We lost two draft picks in the process of these last 4 drafts. Yet, here we are stacking up pretty ok against these complete tank projects.

Lets define real lottery level talent. Players who in a re-draft would still go in the lottery, top 10 to be more precise. Players that are first or second all rookie team caliber for their draft class.

Re-draft 2013-14 class

Giannis
Gobert
CJ
Porter
Shroedor
Oladipo
Noel
Hardaway

We have 8th best player (arguably).

Re-draft 2015-16 class

Towns
Jokic
Porzingis
Booker
Turner
Russell

We have the third best player from this draft class.

Re-draft the 2016-17 class

Embiid
Brongdon
Ingram
Brown
Hield
Saric
Dunn
Hernangomez
Murray

Willy's about in the 8-10 range for this class

Now for this most recent draft lets add Simmons, since he is coming over as a rookie now. A little early to judge, so lets go by draft order plus adding Simmons

Simmons
Fultz
Ball
Tatum
Jackson
Fox
Isaac
Lauri
Smith (lets assume Dennis has proven he deserved to be drafted higher even though it's waaay early)
Ntilikina

So where we stand

Porzingis - 3rd best player of his class
Hardaway - 8th best player of his class
Willy - 8th best player of his class
Ntilikina - 10th pick type of projection

Like I said quietly, despite not having lost two draft picks in 4 years, we have been able to stock up on young talent that would be ranked very well amongst the draft class they entered the league with. I would argue for value, Porzingis (our best player) would only be second to Towns on the trade front. Say what you want about the dysfunction, the poor job Phil/Mills or whomever does, we have quietly put together 4 pieces that would make a good foundation for a re-build. Doesn't mean you win championships with these players in a year or two, but this is what re-building is all about.

Knicks need to be patient and keep drafting well. Lets see how Frank plays. I hope he shows why we picked him at 8. 7 foot wingspan, NBA level athleticims, 6'5 point guards do not grow on trees. He has a rare blend of talent, lets see if he can show why we drafted him. Youngest player in the league next year.

I'd pump the brakes on Jokic as the third best player in that class.

This defensive metric HATES him.

http://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-overall/

And if we just dismiss it, then we have to dismiss the fact players like Green, Gobert, Davis, Emiid, Thompson all rate as meaningless coincidence. He's got the worst defensive FG% allowed of ANY regular player besides Zaza Pachulia, who's 11 years his senior,

Great post and an interesting way to look at the young guys the Knicks have. Where would Covington rank in the Hardawy draft? Can't believe that guy went undrafted.

nyknickzingis wrote:

Gudris wrote:You put Jokic over KP ? Jokic is good, but no way he is overall better than KP

When I do rankings, I try to be as unbiased as possible.
Based on last year, Jokic is the better player.
Based on longterm potential and talent, KP.

Can't give KP credit for that when he hasn't shown it yet. If you think Jokic is not better than KP based on last year, I think you're not following their numbers and overall impact.

Advanced stats show that Jokic was more than twice the player that KP was last year. Their first year he was almost twice the player that KP was.

nyknickzingis wrote:

Gudris wrote:You put Jokic over KP ? Jokic is good, but no way he is overall better than KP

When I do rankings, I try to be as unbiased as possible.
Based on last year, Jokic is the better player.

I was going to put it the same way. I'm sure this is going to be controversial but I'd say that Myles Turner played better than KP last year too. He had better individual stats (other than scoring volume) and had a +8.0 on/off +/-. KP has more long-term potential and I wouldn't trade him for MT though.

reub wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Gudris wrote:You put Jokic over KP ? Jokic is good, but no way he is overall better than KP

When I do rankings, I try to be as unbiased as possible.
Based on last year, Jokic is the better player.
Based on longterm potential and talent, KP.

Can't give KP credit for that when he hasn't shown it yet. If you think Jokic is not better than KP based on last year, I think you're not following their numbers and overall impact.

Advanced stats show that Jokic was more than twice the player that KP was last year. Their first year he was almost twice the player that KP was.

Which advance metrics are those?

Knickoftime wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:You look at Sixers, Suns, Lakers, Kings, Magic. These teams are in the lottery every of the last few years, tanking as much as they can in most cases. The Knicks on the other hand were royally screwed with the pre-Phil Jackson era of poor trades with sending out draft picks. We lost two draft picks in the process of these last 4 drafts. Yet, here we are stacking up pretty ok against these complete tank projects.

Lets define real lottery level talent. Players who in a re-draft would still go in the lottery, top 10 to be more precise. Players that are first or second all rookie team caliber for their draft class.

Re-draft 2013-14 class

Giannis
Gobert
CJ
Porter
Shroedor
Oladipo
Noel
Hardaway

We have 8th best player (arguably).

Re-draft 2015-16 class

Towns
Jokic
Porzingis
Booker
Turner
Russell

We have the third best player from this draft class.

Re-draft the 2016-17 class

Embiid
Brongdon
Ingram
Brown
Hield
Saric
Dunn
Hernangomez
Murray

Willy's about in the 8-10 range for this class

Now for this most recent draft lets add Simmons, since he is coming over as a rookie now. A little early to judge, so lets go by draft order plus adding Simmons

Simmons
Fultz
Ball
Tatum
Jackson
Fox
Isaac
Lauri
Smith (lets assume Dennis has proven he deserved to be drafted higher even though it's waaay early)
Ntilikina

So where we stand

Porzingis - 3rd best player of his class
Hardaway - 8th best player of his class
Willy - 8th best player of his class
Ntilikina - 10th pick type of projection

Like I said quietly, despite not having lost two draft picks in 4 years, we have been able to stock up on young talent that would be ranked very well amongst the draft class they entered the league with. I would argue for value, Porzingis (our best player) would only be second to Towns on the trade front. Say what you want about the dysfunction, the poor job Phil/Mills or whomever does, we have quietly put together 4 pieces that would make a good foundation for a re-build. Doesn't mean you win championships with these players in a year or two, but this is what re-building is all about.

Knicks need to be patient and keep drafting well. Lets see how Frank plays. I hope he shows why we picked him at 8. 7 foot wingspan, NBA level athleticims, 6'5 point guards do not grow on trees. He has a rare blend of talent, lets see if he can show why we drafted him. Youngest player in the league next year.

I'd pump the brakes on Jokic as the third best player in that class.

This defensive metric HATES him.

http://stats.nba.com/players/defense-dash-overall/

And if we just dismiss it, then we have to dismiss the fact players like Green, Gobert, Davis, Emiid, Thompson all rate as meaningless coincidence. He's got the worst defensive FG% allowed of ANY regular player besides Zaza Pachulia, who's 11 years his senior,

But his offense was off the charts and he had a crazy +13.3 on/off differential. No one stat is definitive. Overall, I'd say he's ahead of KP right now.

Knickoftime wrote:

reub wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Gudris wrote:You put Jokic over KP ? Jokic is good, but no way he is overall better than KP

When I do rankings, I try to be as unbiased as possible.
Based on last year, Jokic is the better player.
Based on longterm potential and talent, KP.

Can't give KP credit for that when he hasn't shown it yet. If you think Jokic is not better than KP based on last year, I think you're not following their numbers and overall impact.

Advanced stats show that Jokic was more than twice the player that KP was last year. Their first year he was almost twice the player that KP was.

Which advance metrics are those?

Win shares, on/off +/-, box plus minus, value or replacement, PER

The Knicks could absolutely make the 8th seed in the very weak east.

Team that are in.
Clev
Boston
Wash
Toronto
Milwaukee

Team most likely in
Miami

That leaves two spots and i see all the teams left as equal or close to it so which two take the 7th and 8th seed?
Philly--injuries and young
Indiana--don't see it
Chicago--don't see it
Detroit--possibly
Brooklyn--hahahaha
Atlanta--rebuilding
Charlotte--definite possibility
Orlando--Meh
Knicks--definitely have a chance at the 7th or 8th seed.

nyknickzingis wrote:

Gudris wrote:You put Jokic over KP ? Jokic is good, but no way he is overall better than KP

When I do rankings, I try to be as unbiased as possible.
Based on last year, Jokic is the better player.
Based on longterm potential and talent, KP.

Can't give KP credit for that when he hasn't shown it yet. If you think Jokic is not better than KP based on last year, I think you're not following their numbers and overall impact.

Jokic was part of the 2014 draft, not 2015. But either way, i agree with this thread. We have way more young talent than some of these perennial tanking teams, starting at the top with a potential franchise centerpiece in Porzingis. People are really down here, but with these 4 players, there is major upside with this team starting now. Tons of room for growth with all of them being extremely young.

Bonn1997 wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

reub wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Gudris wrote:You put Jokic over KP ? Jokic is good, but no way he is overall better than KP

When I do rankings, I try to be as unbiased as possible.
Based on last year, Jokic is the better player.
Based on longterm potential and talent, KP.

Can't give KP credit for that when he hasn't shown it yet. If you think Jokic is not better than KP based on last year, I think you're not following their numbers and overall impact.

Advanced stats show that Jokic was more than twice the player that KP was last year. Their first year he was almost twice the player that KP was.

Which advance metrics are those?

Win shares, on/off +/-, box plus minus, value or replacement, PER

They all show he was twice the player?

Bonn1997 wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Gudris wrote:You put Jokic over KP ? Jokic is good, but no way he is overall better than KP

When I do rankings, I try to be as unbiased as possible.
Based on last year, Jokic is the better player.

I was going to put it the same way. I'm sure this is going to be controversial but I'd say that Myles Turner played better than KP last year too. He had better individual stats (other than scoring volume) and had a +8.0 on/off +/-. KP has more long-term potential and I wouldn't trade him for MT though.

In what way?

Also, Jokic was drafted in the 2014 draft with Embiid, Wiggins,and Parker

yellowboy90 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Gudris wrote:You put Jokic over KP ? Jokic is good, but no way he is overall better than KP

When I do rankings, I try to be as unbiased as possible.
Based on last year, Jokic is the better player.

I was going to put it the same way. I'm sure this is going to be controversial but I'd say that Myles Turner played better than KP last year too. He had better individual stats (other than scoring volume) and had a +8.0 on/off +/-. KP has more long-term potential and I wouldn't trade him for MT though.

In what way?

KP has the defensive upside. He can become an anchor at the center position. Jokic will never be an above average defender. He lacks the length and speed. So you have KP, who is a player that can potentially be built around on both ends of the floor. Jokic will be one of the best centers in the league, but can only be built around on one end of the floor, and will have to be complimented very well on the defensive end. Again, right now, we know where each player stands, but we are talking strictly about long-term potential. Also, with Jokic's skillset and body, you get the idea that he is more of a finished product than KP.

As for Turner, i really don't see how he compares to KP, but he will be very good. I put KP in a different category though.

Bonn1997 wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

reub wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Gudris wrote:You put Jokic over KP ? Jokic is good, but no way he is overall better than KP

When I do rankings, I try to be as unbiased as possible.
Based on last year, Jokic is the better player.
Based on longterm potential and talent, KP.

Can't give KP credit for that when he hasn't shown it yet. If you think Jokic is not better than KP based on last year, I think you're not following their numbers and overall impact.

Advanced stats show that Jokic was more than twice the player that KP was last year. Their first year he was almost twice the player that KP was.

Which advance metrics are those?

Win shares, on/off +/-, box plus minus, value or replacement, PER

Did Jokic have to account for Melo shooting 6-21 on his win share percentage? Or being frozen out of the offense by two ball dominant has been stars? How do you take numbers like win shares that don't account for the variability of the rest of the team, and use them tho compare players across teams? I think these stats are only good when making comps within the same team. I am not very familiar with how its calculated butI think people on losing teams will automatically have less win shares and worse +/- stats, right?

Knixkik wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Gudris wrote:You put Jokic over KP ? Jokic is good, but no way he is overall better than KP

When I do rankings, I try to be as unbiased as possible.
Based on last year, Jokic is the better player.

I was going to put it the same way. I'm sure this is going to be controversial but I'd say that Myles Turner played better than KP last year too. He had better individual stats (other than scoring volume) and had a +8.0 on/off +/-. KP has more long-term potential and I wouldn't trade him for MT though.

In what way?

KP has the defensive upside. He can become an anchor at the center position. Jokic will never be an above average defender. He lacks the length and speed. So you have KP, who is a player that can potentially be built around on both ends of the floor. Jokic will be one of the best centers in the league, but can only be built around on one end of the floor, and will have to be complimented very well on the defensive end. Again, right now, we know where each player stands, but we are talking strictly about long-term potential. Also, with Jokic's skillset and body, you get the idea that he is more of a finished product than KP.

As for Turner, i really don't see how he compares to KP, but he will be very good. I put KP in a different category though.

A 7'3 wingspan and a 9'3 standing reach seems pretty long to me. Also, Jokic shorter height may be an advantage in regards to leverage and is why his base is stronger and can bang with bigger centers.

Jokic may never become a all team defender but he may get to average level. If he gets to that level it will be hard to imagine KP ever surpassing him or reaching his all around offensive game.

Re: Turner

If Myles rebounds like he is capable of he has the chance to be a hybrid of both KP and Jokic. His defense is either at KP level or greater and he is already a more efficient scorer. Myles just needs to increase his usg while keeping his efficiency.

Knickoftime wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

reub wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Gudris wrote:You put Jokic over KP ? Jokic is good, but no way he is overall better than KP

When I do rankings, I try to be as unbiased as possible.
Based on last year, Jokic is the better player.
Based on longterm potential and talent, KP.

Can't give KP credit for that when he hasn't shown it yet. If you think Jokic is not better than KP based on last year, I think you're not following their numbers and overall impact.

Advanced stats show that Jokic was more than twice the player that KP was last year. Their first year he was almost twice the player that KP was.

Which advance metrics are those?

Win shares, on/off +/-, box plus minus, value or replacement, PER

They all show he was twice the player?

Some are closer to 1.99

EnySpree wrote:The next story still isn't told yet. They still have this Melo trade and could pickup some good players. Plus they can sign people. So you never know what we're going to look like when the dust settles.

you know damn well, we wont get any good players, the knicks are dumping Melo, and mills is going to run this franchise 6 feet deep.

He is going to make Isaiah Thomas look like the best option since slice bread. He will get fired, along with everybody in the front office, it's just a matter of time.