unstopaball12 wrote:Impressed with how the nba is doing with the bubble. Adam silver deserve major props for this.Players feel safe, social justice calls are being heard, the games are continuing and everyone is locked in on the games.It begs to question that if the mlb and nfl cancel their season due to outbreaks, how will the nba approacb next sesson
The NBA has much simpler logistics and smaller rosters than MLB and the NFL. MLB has a very powerful players union, which complicates things. The NFL has the weakest players union, which complicates things. A lot of this is logistics that are out of Silver's control, but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.
The NBA will have no choice but to bubble up again ( at a massive expense) But it will be prohibitively expensive for a full season. The league will go for the minimum number of games to fulfill it's network contract/obligations. On the plus side, this is their chance to become the No#1 sport in the entire world except for soccer. On the negative side, so much of what the NBA does for branding relies on 20-30 individual players at any given time and if many of them go down to COVID19, this could collapse the league.
The cost structure of the bubble isn't just the stuff on the surface. The massive resource pull to run a bubble season from the general population requires it's own informal tax. The NBA had to give away a ton of COVID19 tests recently and this kind of stuff will become exponential over time. They need to head off a possible PR meltdown ( i.e. why are NBA players getting so much medical priority when people are dying outside the bubble)
Here's the long term problem, the NBA has to accept that the next TV contract is going to hose them. And they'll have to get a big spoon and eat the whole meal there. With owners losing massive revenue ( not just with their NBA teams, but with all of their businesses) , all NBA franchises will see a sharp overall devaluation. The businesses that buy ad time/sponsor the networks are also feeling the hit, this ripples everywhere. The networks will feel the pinch and pass that onto the NBA.
To prop up the value of these franchises, a team needs to be sold at a record price. It means like taking in an owner that was previously seen as undesirable, such as Larry Ellison. The NBA's current ownership ranks do not desire ownership groups like the Bucks situation, then again, they look deeply into the line of succession. Megan Ellison would likely become the defacto owner and then would install someone like Becky Hammon to run a team. The lottery rigging would also have to accommodate new owners.
COVID19 is it's own animal, but it sparks another problem, which is having multiple owners selling their teams all at once. If 3-4 franchises want to sell at once, the league will have massive problems all across the board. The tipping point will be where owners see a big immediate loss better than a catastrophic one down the road.
The NBA needs to stabilize it's existing ownership base to survive. The practical course is compression. Expand rosters and require teams to play twice a day. Get in more games in a shorter period of time. They'll need to find a way to back off of PEDS testing in a way that suits PR needs. The faster the league can fulfill it's network obligations, the better for everyone involved. That means shortening the length of games and forcing teams to use massive depth. Has there ever been a 24 man NBA roster before? Well now there will be.
Gentlemen, this is bad. Professional sports as we know it could completely collapse.