dwiley20 wrote:knox and Frank makes me not want to draft a player here.....
https://www.basketball-reference.com/tea...
Jason Richardson
Mike Dunleavy
Mickael Pietrus
Andreis Biedrins
Ike Diogu
Patrick O'Bryant
Marco Belinelli
Anthony Randolph
Finally
Steph Curry
Ekpe Udoh
Most of these picks were in the 3 to 11 range.
A team will miss on picks. It happens. Do your best given the time and place, and if it doesn't work out, keep trying. Warriors were picking in the range the Knicks are now. Not exactly but close. Also no key free agent wanted to sign with the Warriors. It was ugly for Golden State for a long time after Nellie Ball.
Does that mean you should never ever trade a first round pick? No, no one is saying that. But usually keeping your first rounder is the best market based decision.
The best arguments to trade a first round pick become
A) At the top of the draft, rookie slotting turns into a middle class contract immediately. Since most picks fail, this is actually a tax on bad teams when they miss.
B) It facilitates getting out of the tax zone ( teams needing others to eat their excess salary) while pushing other teams to reach the cap floor ( teams swallowing excess salary ). Which, combined with the current Veterans Minimum Exception, only aids better teams and punishes teams already struggling.
The value of a first round pick against it's Rookie Scale slotting only normalizes when a teams entire rotation ( not it's entire roster) becomes, at minimum, producing at the league average for Offensive Rating ( which correlates to wins and making the playoffs).
The draft is not the first problem on the list for a perpetually losing team.
The first issue is the GAP between the cap floor and your existing salary for players operating at replacement level ( at minimum) PLUS 120 percent of your rookie slotting as a cap hold. When the league ousted Sam Hinkie, the entire league was told any tanking team operating under the cap floor would never "win" a lottery pick in the top four in the future. Ever again. If you go under the cap floor even just once post Hinkie, your franchise is fucked forever.
You need to IMMEDIATELY maximize the potential offensive rating possible with this gap. For perpetually losing teams, this typically means looking to trade to absorb veteran contracts with some built in sub market inefficiency for more draft choices ( i.e. "Renting Your Cap Space") Perpetually losing teams cannot maintain consistent open cap space year to year without overpaying to market on short term deals for Tier 4/5 free agents. The less likely (rare as fuck) pathway is trying to find a FA/UDFA who offers exponential returns like Jeremy Lin. Jeremy Lin made 762K during Linsanity. But teams have to consider the rule not the exceptions.
You must continue to draft the best you can, you must also maximize your return on getting to cap floor.
Does your projected 8th overall improve your overall offensive rating against the opportunity cost of a "rented" veterans contract for the remaining length of said veterans contract? That's the tipping point for choosing one versus the other.
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https://www.basketball-reference.com/abo...
The basic building blocks of the Offensive Rating calculation are Individual Total Possessions and Individual Points Produced. The formula for Total Possessions is broken down into four components: Scoring Possessions, Missed FG Possessions, Missed FT Possessions, and Turnovers.
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Morey opened up about their scouting report on Lin on Michael Lewis’ 2016 book titled “The Undoing Project.” On the book, Morey claimed their model told them that Lin belongs in the top 15 of the draft. However, during this time, Morey still didn’t trust their model completely and passed on him “He lit up our model,” said Morey. “Our model said take him with, like, the 15th pick in the draft.”
Lin went undrafted in 2010 and spent the 2010-11 season as a fringe player for the Golden State Warriors.
A year later after passing on Lin, the Rockets began measuring the first two steps of basketball players. The result: Lin’s first step was faster than any other basketball player measured. Morey wrestled with the thought on why they passed on Lin.
“He’s incredibly athletic,” said Morey. “But the reality is that every fucking person, including me, thought he was unathletic. And I can’t think of any reason for it other than he was Asian.”