Jalen Smith will profile out as a reserve Stretch 5 with a low defensive upside. There are two pathways for poor decision making on the court. The first is someone who just lacks experience against higher levels of competition. Also some guys start playing organized ball later as a youth. The second is a person who cannot process what is going on in front of him at game speed. If Smith can't do it at the college level with an extra year, it's only going to compound in the NBA. A guy like this can hide at lower levels because he's usually so much more powerful/athletic than competition that is vastly inferior. This creates appeal on tape that won't translate against actual NBA competition.
His shooting profiles out very well. I don't think he'll be able to manage NBA grade attack guards. Overall, he's not a basketball player at heart. He's a moderate level college athlete playing basketball because he's tall and everyone told him that's what he has to do. His ability to stay at the back end of a NBA rotation depends on fit. He needs a very very very simple system. Teams will talk themselves into him citing that he needs more experience/confidence. Those teams would be wrong.
His value to the Knicks? If they could buy a very late 2nd rounder or get him as an UDFA, why not. I don't think he'll last that long by a wide stretch.
The Wire comparison? Poot. The right mix of dumb and lucky to survive. Ending up selling shoes wasn't because of good decision making, it was just the path of least resistance after Bodie got capped. (I hope Poot got Bodie a nice arrangement. With those strong colors. That looked like one of those high rise towers.)
The Marlo storyline needed lots of plot armor. I just don't see Bodie's character progression meekly asking Marlo if he could speak to him. I see Bodie putting a bullet in his head. Omar really had to get shifted out of character in the last season to fit a very thin narrative. Once Butchie died, Omar, as constructed from the earlier seasons, would have killed them all. The idea that Omar would walk into a 5th/6th story apartment to kill someone makes little to no sense other than to shoehorn the real life Omar's apparent storyline. While the acting was very good in most spots, I just didn't think Jamie Hector could elevate the material he was given. I suppose the only arc for Chris Partlow that could work then would be if he was gay and in love with Marlo. Partlow was far better written and portrayed. The actor for Chris ended up making a movie with George Pelicanos that came out not long ago. Bird and Slim Charles return.
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Patrick Williams is going to profile out as small ball 5 who won't be able to switch on defense. He's indicative of the "new normal" for tweeners. Between a jumbo wing and a small ball 5. I think scouts will overestimate his rim protection at the next level. Opponents who can get to the rim will feast on this guy because he will likely be someone they can sell contact on/play for the whistle against. He's pretty aggressive, which is a nice switch, because a lot of these newer generation guys are soft as shit. I see a replacement level shooter but is going to sell on tape as sexy because front offices will project against a high level point forward. He's not Scottie Pippen, but he's more than Billy Owens. There's a big gap there. Jenna Jameson doesn't have a gap that wide.
Defensively I see a tweener that won't be able to break through. He's a good test case for young talent evaluators to understand when an instinctive player is mistaken for a good decision maker. He needs a ton of work. OK, so if you project him hitting all his ceilings, in a very narrow high reward window, you are looking at a lethal small ball 5 who can run the offense. I think some team will fall in love with his tape too much.
His value to the Knicks? He's not worth the 8th pick and will be gone before the late 20s and he's not worth trading up for in this draft.
The Wire comparison? D'Angelo Barksdale. Not square enough while also not street enough. If anyone in this draft is going to get hanged in a library, it's probably Williams. I never saw D'Angelo as a tragic character. I think he was constructed as someone who was sheltered both too much and too little by his mother and uncle. Should have left the kid running a copy mat. Luck plays so much in real life. Larry Gilliyard and someone like Alice Braga from Queen Of The South, I mean their real life arc changed over being in the right place and right time to be in a movie. Life didn't leave them a little too slow or a little too late.
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On both, I'm very partial to a certain type of player, so I have my own bias involved. Generally speaking, I'll shade down on guys with iffy footwork and hazy fundamentals.
