Knicks · Official Eastern Conference {Standings/Schedule} Thread: (page 4)

Knickoftime wrote:

NYKMentality wrote: I'll be rooting for Miami to beat Philadelphia tonight because my goal (throughout the entire Regular Season) has been the #3 seed and a Knicks win vs. Boston + Philadelphia loss vs. Miami would = only 4.5 back of that 3rd seed.

Up to a 1.1% chance!

Up from 0.2 two games ago...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/fri...

Knicks have gained a full 2.0 games on Philadelphia during only our previous 2 games and now only 4.5 back of Philly for the 3rd seed.

Do me a favor.

🏀Show me what your simulators had the Knicks @ before the season started for total win total.

🏀Then show me their W/L predictions when we were 9-11 overall.

🏀And then show me where they had us finishing while only @ only 19-18 overall.

Etc.

And I guarantee you 1 million dollars (that I don't have) that none of those genius simulators EVER had the Knicks @ 9 games above .500 after only 63 games after 0-1, 9-11, 19-18 etc because I already know they didn't.

And if we continue playing like this (throughout our final 19 games) we'll catch both of Cleveland and then Philadelphia for the 4th and 3rd seeds too.

Next 11 Games:
1.) @ Washington = Win.
2.) vs. Pelicans = Win.
3.) vs. Celtics = Win.

4.) vs. Nets (34-26) (3-7 previous 10) @ 7:30 on March 1st (Wednesday).

5.) @ Miami.
6.) @ Boston.
7.) vs Hornets.
8.) @ Sacramento.
9.) @ Los Angeles Clippers.
10.) @ Los Angeles Lakers.
11.) @ Portland.

Eastern Conference Standings:
1.) Milwaukee Bucks = 43-17 (.717%).
2.) Boston Celtics = 44-18 (.710%).

3.) Philadelphia 76ers = 39-21 (.650%). -4.0.
4.) Cleveland Cavaliers = 39-25 (.609%). -6.0

5.) NEW YORK KNICKS = 36-27 (.571%). -8.5.

Games Tonight:
Bucks (1) @ Brooklyn (6).
Atlanta (8) vs. Wizards (10).

We'll be rooting for the Bucks to create distance between us and Brooklyn and obviously rooting for Washington too (draft pick) but other than that?

Real Eastern Conference play doesn't begin again until Wednesday (Milwaukee/Orlando, Boston/Cleveland, Philly/Miami and Knicks/Nets).

ramtour420 wrote:Next goal is the 5th seed. Nets are not going to hold it.

Good call Ramtour420 Nets didn't hold it.

Brooklyn is now the 6th seed but even worse they're only 3-7 previous 10 games and on a two game losing streak too.

Their next 3 games = Bucks/Knicks/Celtics and you can just make that right now 3-10 previous 13 + 5 game losing streak.

Miami & Atlanta will 100% catch them and drop them to at least the 9th seed (Play-In team @ best).

Knickoftime wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:Eastern Conference 3 Seed (still alive).

Philadelphia 76ers (starting tonight) will start to fall (within the Standings).

76ers
28th easiest SOS
(1st 57 games)

76ers
#1 most difficult SOS
(Final 25 games)

(76ers next 6 Games)
vs MEM = win.
vs BOS = loss.
vs MIA = loss.
@ MIA
@ DAL
@ MIL

NY's only 6.5 back of Philadelphia and I wonder how small the difference would be (record wise) if the roles were reversed and NY had the 28th easiest SOS while Philly had the 11th most difficult SOS (1st half). I bet the gap would've been less than 2-3 games.

C'mon...

It's one thing to imagine the Knicks going 17-5 and the Sixers going 11-14.

It's another to imagine the Cavs going 11-10 too.

I don't think you realize the scale of the probability you're playing with here.

You do realize after trying to correct me (with computer talk) how the 76ers have since lost 2 games in a row and fell from +6.5 ahead of NY to only +4.5 ahead of New York, right?

And there's also a great chance Philly loses 2 of those next 3 (1-2) if not all 3 (0-3) but don't worry because after their next 3 games? Philadelphia's schedule doesn't lighten up; it becomes brutal moving forward too.

Philly = #1 SOS moving forward (22 games left).
Vs.
Knicks = #19 SOS moving forward (19 games left).

You're questioning the type of NBA SOS 🔥 that you really don't want to touch right now.

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Previous 43 Games (since the benching of Cam Reddish for a 9 man Rotation).

New York Knicks
27-16 (.627%).

Boston Celtics
29-14 (.674%).

And imo we've been playing even better basketball than Boston has because not only have we gone 2-0 against them (previous 43 Games) but NY's Strength of Schedule (SOS) has been much more difficult than Boston's Strength of Schedule (SOS) throughout our previous 43 Games.

Boston announcers admitted it last night; "they do not want to see this Knicks team in the Playoffs".

NYKMentality wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

NYKMentality wrote: I'll be rooting for Miami to beat Philadelphia tonight because my goal (throughout the entire Regular Season) has been the #3 seed and a Knicks win vs. Boston + Philadelphia loss vs. Miami would = only 4.5 back of that 3rd seed.

Up to a 1.1% chance!

Up from 0.2 two games ago...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/fri...

Knicks have gained a full 2.0 games on Philadelphia during only our previous 2 games and now only 4.5 back of Philly for the 3rd seed.

That's correct yes...

And these are the new odds.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/fri...

And they're not up to 2.6% chance to finish 3rd, which btw, as a Knicks fans I hope happens!

Do me a favor.

🏀Show me what your simulators had the Knicks @ before the season started for total win total.

🏀Then show me their W/L predictions when we were 9-11 overall.

🏀And then show me where they had us finishing while only @ only 19-18 overall.

Not relevant. The simulations are based on ANYTHING to do before tip-off of game 1. And they are weighted to recent play.

I still don't think you understand nobody is sitting in a room inputing their human perception of the New York Knicks.

You somehow seem to be under the impression that methodology has a blindspot for a team getting hot at the right time. This is your error.

And I guarantee you 1 million dollars (that I don't have) that none of those genius simulators EVER had the Knicks @ 9 games above .500 after only 63 games after 0-1, 9-11, 19-18 etc because I already know they didn't.

Be glad you don't have 1 million dollars.

Again, you both misunderstand and mischaracterize what we're talking about. You've immediately taken a pejorative stance towards the "genius" simulators as if they were people trying to do you wrong... which is immensely silly.

But more to the point....

https://web.archive.org/web/202301062155...

Closest archive available to the 19-18 mark - 21-18.

The statistical probability (not opinion) at the time had the Knicks most often finishing 45-37, which they're most likely going to surpass (highest probability currently stands at a 47-35 finish).

But, the models allowed for the Knicks to finish with as many of 55 wins and as few as 31, with their odds of finishing 3rd in the East actually higher than they are today, And again, I don't think you quite grasp it isn't trying to make a prediction, but calculate probability.

Now, you're correct to note the Knicks are currently on a 6 game win streak. And I'm remind you that the 19-18 mark you reference was the start of a 4 game win streak, which followed a 5 game losing streak, which followed an 8 game winning streak. Knicks would have another 4 game losing streak a couple of weeks later.

It is your OPINION the Knicks will not falter at all the rest of the way, and it's your opinion the Sixers can play below the level they've established over more than 3/4's of the season, and the simulations account for both of these possibilities.

What they don't do is assume they will (and yes, the Sixers SOS IS calculated).

Nothing is saying the Knicks catching the Sixers isn't possible. The math just makes it improbable.

You're the only party adding pure speculation to this and not consistently. You want to cite the Sixers difficult schedule but at the same time ignore the Cavs relatively easy schedule by the same measure. And why? Because you WANT to.

More importantly the simulations know the best indicator of team success more than 75% of the passing of a season is the previous 75%. Yes, the sixers AND the Cavs CAN get cold for the next 20 games, while the Knicks remain red hot. But NBA history works against that 3=pronged scenario.

But again, I hope that happens.

Knicks finishing 3rd would be awesome!

NYKMentality wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:Eastern Conference 3 Seed (still alive).

Philadelphia 76ers (starting tonight) will start to fall (within the Standings).

76ers
28th easiest SOS
(1st 57 games)

76ers
#1 most difficult SOS
(Final 25 games)

(76ers next 6 Games)
vs MEM = win.
vs BOS = loss.
vs MIA = loss.
@ MIA
@ DAL
@ MIL

NY's only 6.5 back of Philadelphia and I wonder how small the difference would be (record wise) if the roles were reversed and NY had the 28th easiest SOS while Philly had the 11th most difficult SOS (1st half). I bet the gap would've been less than 2-3 games.

C'mon...

It's one thing to imagine the Knicks going 17-5 and the Sixers going 11-14.

It's another to imagine the Cavs going 11-10 too.

I don't think you realize the scale of the probability you're playing with here.

You do realize after trying to correct me (with computer talk) how the 76ers have since lost 2 games in a row and fell from +6.5 ahead of NY to only +4.5 ahead of New York, right?

Of course!

Knicks probability of finishing 3rd has gone from 0.2 to 2.7 over that time, a mathematically significant increase.

And there's also a great chance Philly loses 2 of those next 3 (1-2) if not all 3 (0-3) but don't worry because after their next 3 games? Philadelphia's schedule doesn't lighten up; it becomes brutal moving forward too.

Philly = #1 SOS moving forward (22 games left).
Vs.
Knicks = #19 SOS moving forward (19 games left).

You're questioning the type of NBA SOS 🔥 that you really don't want to touch right now.

Cavs are #29 - .472 (18 games).

Read my very first post on that matter. I very specifically said the probability of catching BOTH teams for 3rd.

And again...

The probability ACCOUNTS for remaining SOS, as well as remaining Home and Away. And well as streak. As well as last 10. As well as all the play between the Knicks, Cavs and Sixers. As well as differential.

You're citing it like a "gotcha" as if somehow you thought of something that isn't considered and calculated.

It is.

There is no human element here. There is only math. Math that is based on the entirety of NBA history.

The only human element is you - the guy who predicted 60 wins last year.

Knickoftime wrote:Hmmmmmm

I'm now wondering why you've waited just about 1 month to post in this thread I've created and also updated on a daily basis.

Seems to me as if you've intentionally ignored this thread up until the very moment the Knicks started to gain ground on multiple teams while also passing multiple teams within the standings.

I'm now questioning your motives, because it's all too weird to me.

Trying to put out my fire?

Temper my expectations?

Don't worry. When Philadelphia falls I'm going to laugh @ those "simulators" of yours.

You entered this thread almost 1 month later while trying to kick down doors?

You'll see how those computer calculators don't understand human basketball.

NYKMentality wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:Hmmmmmm

I'm now wondering why you've waited just about 1 month to post in this thread I've created and also updated on a daily basis.

Since you asked, I wasn't posting here then.

Seems to me as if you've intentionally ignored this thread up until the very moment the Knicks started to gain ground on multiple teams while also passing multiple teams within the standings.

Actually coincides with me returning to reading any thread and commenting in any thread in a very long time.

I'm now questioning your motives, because it's all too weird to me.

Trying to put out my fire?

Temper my expectations?

That you're taking it personally is totally the point here.

Don't worry. When Philadelphia falls I'm going to laugh @ those "simulators" of yours.

You entered this thread almost 1 month later while trying to kick down doors?

You'll see how those computer calculators don't understand human basketball.

Cool.

I HOPE you have the ammunition.

That'd be awesome.

Knickoftime wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:Hmmmmmm

I'm now wondering why you've waited just about 1 month to post in this thread I've created and also updated on a daily basis.

Since you asked, I wasn't posting here then.

Seems to me as if you've intentionally ignored this thread up until the very moment the Knicks started to gain ground on multiple teams while also passing multiple teams within the standings.

Actually coincides with me returning to reading any thread and commenting in any thread in a very long time.

I'm now questioning your motives, because it's all too weird to me.

Trying to put out my fire?

Temper my expectations?

That you're taking it personally is totally the point here.

Don't worry. When Philadelphia falls I'm going to laugh @ those "simulators" of yours.

You entered this thread almost 1 month later while trying to kick down doors?

You'll see how those computer calculators don't understand human basketball.

Cool.

I HOPE you have the ammunition.

That'd be awesome.

This might be the first time I've ever agreed with a NYKMentality take, but I agree you're playing with fire using these simulations. Won't be long before they start having original creative thoughts of their own and we all know how that plays out.

BigDaddyG wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:Hmmmmmm

I'm now wondering why you've waited just about 1 month to post in this thread I've created and also updated on a daily basis.

Since you asked, I wasn't posting here then.

Seems to me as if you've intentionally ignored this thread up until the very moment the Knicks started to gain ground on multiple teams while also passing multiple teams within the standings.

Actually coincides with me returning to reading any thread and commenting in any thread in a very long time.

I'm now questioning your motives, because it's all too weird to me.

Trying to put out my fire?

Temper my expectations?

That you're taking it personally is totally the point here.

Don't worry. When Philadelphia falls I'm going to laugh @ those "simulators" of yours.

You entered this thread almost 1 month later while trying to kick down doors?

You'll see how those computer calculators don't understand human basketball.

Cool.

I HOPE you have the ammunition.

That'd be awesome.

This might be the first time I've ever agreed with a NYKMentality take, but I agree you're playing with fire using these simulations. Won't be long before they start having original creative thoughts of their own and we all know how that plays out.

Ssssssshhhhh

Don't blow my cover.

BigDaddyG wrote:This might be the first time I've ever agreed with a NYKMentality take, but I agree you're playing with fire using these simulations. Won't be long before they start having original creative thoughts of their own and we all know how that plays out.

Dude popped in this thread literally out of nowhere and immediately after the Knicks went from a 7th seed to a 5th seed while leapfrogging both Miami and then Brooklyn (despite only 12 games since this thread was started).

But then he shows up like clockwork.

For what?

To tell us his robot machines claim the Knicks can't leapfrog another 2 teams despite another 19 games remaining?

Na. I can't remember that shit.

What's funny is immediately after trying to prove how wrong my vision truly is?

The 76ers went from +6.5 ahead of us to only +4.5 ahead of us.

Just like clockwork.

2 games gained on Philadelphia despite only 2 games played 🤣🤭😆

So far (since he's entered this thread) I'm laughing @ his computers.

NYKMentality wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:This might be the first time I've ever agreed with a NYKMentality take, but I agree you're playing with fire using these simulations. Won't be long before they start having original creative thoughts of their own and we all know how that plays out.

Dude popped in this thread literally out of nowhere and immediately after the Knicks went from a 7th seed to a 5th seed while leapfrogging both Miami and then Brooklyn (despite only 12 games since this thread was started).

But then he shows up like clockwork.

For what?

To tell us his robot machines claim the Knicks can't leapfrog another 2 teams despite another 19 games remaining?

Na. I can't remember that shit.

What's funny is immediately after trying to prove how wrong my vision truly is?

The 76ers went from +6.5 ahead of us to only +4.5 ahead of us.

Just like clockwork.

2 games gained on Philadelphia despite only 2 games played 🤣🤭😆

So far (since he's entered this thread) I'm laughing @ his computers.

This is unfortunate.

Next 11 Games:
1.) @ Washington = Win.
2.) vs. Pelicans = Win.
3.) vs. Celtics = Win.

4.) Tomorrow Night vs. Nets (34-26) (3-7 previous 10) .

5.) @ Miami.
6.) @ Boston.
7.) vs Hornets.
8.) @ Sacramento.
9.) @ Los Angeles Clippers.
10.) @ Los Angeles Lakers.
11.) @ Portland.

Eastern Conference Standings:
1.) Milwaukee Bucks = 43-17 (.717%).
2.) Boston Celtics = 44-18 (.710%).

3.) Philadelphia 76ers = 39-21 (.650%). -4.0.
4.) Cleveland Cavaliers = 39-25 (.609%). -6.0

5.) NEW YORK KNICKS = 36-27 (.571%). -8.5.

Games Tonight:
Bucks (1) @ Brooklyn (6).
Atlanta (8) vs. Wizards (10).

(Bucks win gives us a little breathing room over Brooklyn and an ATL loss vs. Washington helps our Wizards draft pick).

A.) Brooklyn Nets blew a 15 point (Home) lead and ended up getting 2nd half destroyed 64-42 by Milwaukee and lost by 14 Points (118-104). Now a full game (1.0) ahead of Brooklyn @ the 5 seed.

B.) Atlanta Hawks blew a 10 point (Home) 4th quarter lead to Washington, Trae Young tried to do everything by himself during the 4th Q and got outscored 34-26 4th Q and ended up losing by 3 (119-116). Knicks now +4.5 games ahead of Atlanta (8th seed).

C.) Washington beating those Atlanta Hawks (above) also improves our 1st round pick (from Washington).

A+++ off-night for NY.

Bonus:

Indiana is beating Dallas by 7 points 2nd Q. Another Dallas Mavericks loss tonight (both Luka/Kyrie playing) would once again; improve NY's 1st round pick from Dallas.

A++++ Knicks off-night (if Indiana can hold off Dallas).

Next 11 Games:
1.) @ Washington = Win.
2.) vs. Pelicans = Win.
3.) vs. Celtics = Win.

4.) Tomorrow Night vs. Nets @ 34-27 overall (3-8 previous 11) + (3 loses in a row).

5.) @ Miami.
6.) @ Boston.
7.) vs Hornets.
8.) @ Sacramento.
9.) @ Los Angeles Clippers.
10.) @ Los Angeles Lakers.
11.) @ Portland.

Eastern Conference Standings:
1.) Milwaukee Bucks = 44-17 (.721%).
2.) Boston Celtics = 44-18 (.710%). -0.5

3.) Philadelphia 76ers = 39-21 (.650%). -4.5

4.) Cleveland Cavaliers = 39-25 (.609%). -6.5
5.) NEW YORK KNICKS = 36-27 (.571%). -9.0

Tomorrow Night:
Milwaukee (1) vs. Orlando.
Boston (2) vs. Cavs (4).
76ers (3) @ Miami (7).
New York (5) vs. Nets (6).

Knicks win over Brooklyn + Boston win @ home vs. Cleveland + 76ers loss @ Miami = NY only -1.5 back of Cleveland for that 4 seed and only -3.5 back of Philadelphia for their 3 seed

Philadelphia is a much better home team than they are as the 76ers as a road team (much better @ home).

Philadelphia @ Home = 24-10 (.705%).
Vs.
76ers on the Road 15-11 (.576%).

And guess what?

8 of their next 10 Games are away on the Road

@ Miami.
@ Dallas
@ Milwaukee.
@ Indiana.
@ Minnesota.
Vs. Trailblazers.
Vs. Wizards.
@ Cleveland (win/win for NY).
@ Charlotte.
@ Indiana.

And then after that?

Their remaining schedule becomes 10x more brutal with 8 of their final 12 games against the likes of...

@ Golden State.
@ Phoenix (KD).
@ Denver.
vs Mavericks.
@ Milwaukee.
vs. Celtics.
vs. Heat.
@ Atlanta.

If you think Philadelphia can survive their up coming schedule and without taking a step-back?

You're out of your gosh darn basketball mind.

Knickoftime wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:We'll see how it goes man.

Might not have enough time to catch Philadelphia due to -6.5 games back but with Cleveland?

We're actually only 4.5 back of Cleveland for the 4th seed.

And we've still got 1 game against them too.

Hypothetically speaking we're -3.5 back of Cleveland (including the W over them).

From there on out?

Cleveland loses 2 in a row?
Knicks win 2 in a row?

And we're literally 1.0 back with potentially 10+ games remaining aka potential dog fight.

You're looking at it from a micro view , macro view is always better.

Like I say, Cleveland is a .628 team over 3/4's of a season. Even if they went 11-10, that means 17-5 for the Knicks, regardless of the common game. Give to the Knicks and we're still talking 11-9 and 16-5.

Those are looong odds.

Verrrrrry long on the Knicks side and pretty long on the Cavs side.

I'm not telling anything other than the odds here.

Funny how the very 1st time you ever emerged into this thread you tried kicking down doors with robot simulators and preaching absolutely robotic "long odds" talk (instead of real NBA basketball).

You were wrong.

I wasn't never looking @ anything from a "micro view".

I was taking common sense because I know how awesome this 2023 team is and how talented these kids truly are and how red hot on 🔥 we are in compared to everyone else except for only Milwaukee and it's because unlike your robot simulators I actually watch the games with my own two eyes.

Remember you telling me on February 25th about how your simulators were telling you I'm wrong as I was preaching NY only 4.5 back from Cleveland for our 4th seed back on only February 24th right before heading into @ Washington while -4.5 back of Cleveland for the 4 seed and 6.5 bank of Philadelphia for the 3 seed?

Well now look.

#3 Seed = Philadelphia @ -3.5 (no longer -6.5).
#4 Seed = Cleveland @ -1.5 (no longer -4.5).

#4 Cleveland = 39-26 (+1.5)
#5 New York = 37-27 (-1.5).

It's no longer February 24th anymore. It's now only March 1st.

Care to talk about those super long odds now?

• 10-2 Previous 12 (.833%).

• 9-1 Previous 10 (.900%).

• 7-0 undefeated since Josh Hart (.1000%).

• 4-0 undefeated since Mitchell Robinson's return (.1000%).

Special Addition (NBA's Top 8)
1.) Milwaukee: 45-17 (.726%).
2.) Boston: 45-18 (.714%) -0.5
3.) Denver: 44-19 (.698%) -1.5

4.) Philadelphia: 40-21 (.656%). -4.5.
5.) Memphis: 38-23 (.623%) -6.5

6.) Cleveland: 39-26 (.600%) -7.5
7.) Sacramento: 36-25 (.590%) -8.5
8.) NEW YORK KNICKS: 37-27 (.578%) -9.0

March 2nd & March 3rd games:
Thursday Night:
76ers (4) @ Dallas.

Friday Night Lights:
Boston (2) vs. Brooklyn.
Denver (3) vs. Grizzlies (5).
Knicks (8) @ Miami.

PS:

Cleveland Cavaliers = 1-4 previous 5 games with 4/5 of their next 5 games up against both @ Boston (1x), vs. Celtics (x2) and @ Miami (1x) and @ Miami (x2).