Forgive me, as I think what a lot of us are probably thinking/feeling on this topic, but at least for me it has to be said out loud.
I cannot understate the impact this guy has brought when he has been on the court. He is the link that holds the defense together and has been an absolutely perfect fit for the Thibs system as a switchable, 5 position defender. Even offensively, he's a ball mover/decisive cutter with good finishing skills and an accurate corner 3 which works perfectly alongside Brunson and Randle. But my gosh this man has played 17 games and missed 25. Not gonna begrudge someone getting injured, but to have a surgery, rehab time come back and then miss another 7 games with tennis elbow...its not that its just frustrating from a fan perspective (and I know the Knicks are gonna err on being cautious to have him for the playoffs), but how do you take this within the context of his career, where he has only player over 70 games his rookie season and the pay him 30-40mm per annum. 7 seasons in the league where injuries have always been an issue - hard to expect something different in the future and really need to price this in to your expectations. To me this is the conundrum of all conundrums because there's no question he is value add, but if he misses 15-35 games per year for each of the seasons of his deal, how much does that hurt us?
Remember paying him 30-40mm means you can't afford depth behind him, and if you have to play 20-40% of your games without him, that's potentially either a big drop off or has ripple effects on the rest of your team, where certain guys are playing 40+ mins every night and can wear down late in games or have off nights with tired legs, or worse yet, get in position to also get injured. Meanwhile that 30-40mm per annum is a huge portion of your cap. I think we're feeling the pinch right now- our team is giving an amazing effort night and night out, but the more that OG doesn't play, the less it feels we can sustain this and go far into the playoffs.
I'm not sure the math adds up. This is gonna be a really hard and impactful decision for the front office and the future of the franchise. But after the resources we gave up, its hard to fold your cards and not go all in. This is the endowment effect in economics. Happens all the time on bball - trade for a guy, invest a lot of resources, double down on your investment, but maybe not the best decision for your future. But your always gonna think - maybe he can play 65-70 games a year and that is absolutely worth it if he can stay healthy in the playoffs and get you to the ring...but is that high odds / a good bet? Is "what else are we gonna do?" a good enough reason to stay the course?
Good write up.
I see this situation differently from most.
These injuries and lack of availability followed OG his entire career. When he came here, he showed his impact immediately which is great.
It could’ve been worse. He could’ve stayed healthy the entire season and then was out during the playoffs. But if he comes back and helps us get out of the 1st round, he’s worth a decent contract at a discounted rate (whatever that means). Leave those details to the poor man GMs on this site.
In short OGs latest injuries gives the Knicks more leverage vs if he was healthy prior to contract negotiations. So coming back for the playoffs could be a win win for both sides.
I think OG had COVID and calf injury that spanned 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons. No idea if calf has been hurt since.
It would be nice to know what the average games played as a stater is for league.
From July 2022:
https://www.truehoop.com/p/nba-stars-mis...NBA stars are missing a ton of games. I looked at everyone who has played in an All-Star game over the past three years—48 players in total—and then added the NBA’s current high-earners to beef up this sample to a decent enough chunk of players that it would be possible to approach a trend. By my count:
The average NBA star from this list missed 28 games last season.
Games played:
2017 74
2018 67
2019 69
2020 43
2021 48
2022 67
2023 44
Good questions and subject. Tough to project as even the healthiest player career can go south in the blink of an eye and stay that way. Derrick Rose a perfect storm. Lamelo Ball can't stay on the court, let alone Lonzo.
If you can get 65 or more games per season your doing great! thats the number of games for post season honors and contracts.
One has to figure his market value might drop because of his history.
Other teams are faced with similar issues as well as cap/apron and how to spend in the age of parity.
Injuries are part of the whole schematic so its not if your players are to miss games, its "When and how many". That we are closing in on our ceiling win totals many of us "Predicted" before the season and we been ripped to shreds with injuries speaks to the planning and adaptability of our FO and coaches. That Grimes has been missing and we have Burks and Bojan not doing great yet the wheels have not fallen off. We are well away from play in and competing for 4th or better. Top end of the seeding!
Im just going to enjoy this season and then the off season and take solace our FO is on it. I give them the benefit of the doubt. They earned it in my opinion. They not perfect, but who is?
For what it's worth, I still hope we don't pay more than $25m year 1, max $30m.
No way would I give $40m
VDesai wrote:Remember paying him 30-40mm means you can't afford depth behind him,
The depth from SG to SF to wing to PF is plentiful on the Knicks? Deuce, DDV, Hart, OG, Randle, Precious. Detroit bro's have not done well.
The depth so good that Brunson, Deuce, Hart can all start and run really really really well until Brunson has to sit. And without Randle.
As well, Burks Bogs prob not doing well cause of the backup PG position and then they are asked to handle?
For me, that's a PG problem, not a depth problem, in the bigger picture of things. And that is very solvable.
martin wrote:I think OG had COVID and calf injury that spanned 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons. No idea if calf has been hurt since.It would be nice to know what the average games played as a stater is for league.
From July 2022:
https://www.truehoop.com/p/nba-stars-mis...NBA stars are missing a ton of games. I looked at everyone who has played in an All-Star game over the past three years—48 players in total—and then added the NBA’s current high-earners to beef up this sample to a decent enough chunk of players that it would be possible to approach a trend. By my count:
The average NBA star from this list missed 28 games last season.
Games played:
2017 74
2018 67
2019 69
2020 43
2021 48
2022 67
2023 44
One year he had an appendix removed as well.
You sign him and you use a first rounder to draft his backup/insurance. Done deal. He's too important and too good to NOT keep. Even if you have to load management him throughout the year to keep him ready for playoffs.
I think it would be good to map out the salary slots for iHart, OG and see how they mesh with Brunson, Randle and the ~10% bumps the salary cap gets every year.
A real-time look at the 2024-25 salary cap totals for each NBA team, including estimated cap space.
Cap Maximum: $141,000,000
Luxury Tax Threshold: $171,315,000
2025-26
Cap Maximum: $155,100,000
Luxury Tax Threshold: $188,447,000
2026-27
Cap Maximum: $170,610,000
Luxury Tax Threshold: $207,292,000
You can't let him walk after what we gave up. And, all articles say he wants 40+ so I would be shocked if we get him on a bargain. OG makes us a legit contender today - it just sucks to tie our future to such an injury prone player.
jaydh wrote:You can't let him walk after what we gave up. And, all articles say he wants 40+ so I would be shocked if we get him on a bargain. OG makes us a legit contender today - it just sucks to tie our future to such an injury prone player.
Good thing is Knicks are clearly still good-to-very good without him. We are 15-13 without both him and Randle. Gotta believe Randle without OG and that record is more like 17-11 at least. So Knicks just need to draft a solid innings eater to help us throughout the season and keep OG healthy for the playoff runs.
We have so many bargain deals we can afford an overpay for a guy who makes the impact that OG makes when healthy.
Don't care what the articles say. But we live in a world were Tobia Harris just finished a deal that paid him 39mm in his last year. M Poerter gets 33 that rises to 40 in 4 years. Bam 32mm rises to 37 in 3 years.
To be honest, I have no feel for what to pay him. His impact is fantastic. His injuries are for real and we frustrated but before he went out most of us would have written him a blank check. What other teams can and want to pay him and does he want to be there? How much more would they be? Im gong to guess he'll get something like $140mil avg 35 mil year. Say start at 30 and ramp up to 40 by year 4. Im guessing. Inflation.
Is he worth it? Let you know in 4 years!
DLeethal wrote:
We have so many bargain deals we can afford an overpay for a guy who makes the impact that OG makes when healthy.
This is a very fair point. Its easy to think about this with lens of the Knicks past where we had no wiggle room and just compounded mistakes. This front office has been very shrewd and has us loaded with bargain deals and in a flexible situation with a lot of draft assets to help us get out of mistakes if we need to. My concern is that the Randle and Brunson deals will be up before you know it and they will need big extensions. But this FO has done smart things like front load deals and maybe they can do that here to lower the cap hit for the year Brunson signs his extension. Maybe Randle doesn't get a contract. A lot will play out. There is an irrational (potentially) fear that I have that the first big mistake means more mistakes will come and we are the old Knicks again, but Leon and co have a handle.
I do feel like OG is not gonna all of a sudden turn into a durable guy. Its something that has to be taken into account in the calculus.
DLeethal wrote:jaydh wrote:You can't let him walk after what we gave up. And, all articles say he wants 40+ so I would be shocked if we get him on a bargain. OG makes us a legit contender today - it just sucks to tie our future to such an injury prone player.
Good thing is Knicks are clearly still good-to-very good without him. We are 15-13 without both him and Randle. Gotta believe Randle without OG and that record is more like 17-11 at least. So Knicks just need to draft a solid innings eater to help us throughout the season and keep OG healthy for the playoff runs.
We have so many bargain deals we can afford an overpay for a guy who makes the impact that OG makes when healthy.
I agree on not caring what he gets paid. IMO, when healthy we are contenders with all of our picks still in hand. We can build up a farm system, with the goal of developing players like we did with McBride.
the elbow is frustrating. Did he rush back? Did he simply hurt himself again?
I trust the front office, but I hope we draft similar players with our pick and the Dallas pick.
It hurts bc you know 1 arm Anunoby's D would have gotten them 2 out of 3 of these games and we would be talking about the 2 seed right now. Irrational I know, but they are desperate to just have 15 mins of quality D from him - that's really all they need.
VDesai wrote:It hurts bc you know 1 arm Anunoby's D would have gotten them 2 out of 3 of these games and we would be talking about the 2 seed right now. Irrational I know, but they are desperate to just have 15 mins of quality D from him - that's really all they need.
I don’t think it’s irrational. I think if the playoffs started today he’s playing. His defense alone is a game changer, even if he doesn’t score. He’s still a threat on the perimeter which defenders have to honor vs hart. Harts man is the double guy every game. At least that’s not the case for a 1 arm OG.
I wonder if that bone fragment removed was attached to tendon, and that’s why the recovery has been tricky.
I’m not a doctor, but I might check into a Holiday Inn Express if the team needs me to.
VDesai wrote:DLeethal wrote:
We have so many bargain deals we can afford an overpay for a guy who makes the impact that OG makes when healthy.
This is a very fair point. Its easy to think about this with lens of the Knicks past where we had no wiggle room and just compounded mistakes. This front office has been very shrewd and has us loaded with bargain deals and in a flexible situation with a lot of draft assets to help us get out of mistakes if we need to. My concern is that the Randle and Brunson deals will be up before you know it and they will need big extensions. But this FO has done smart things like front load deals and maybe they can do that here to lower the cap hit for the year Brunson signs his extension. Maybe Randle doesn't get a contract. A lot will play out. There is an irrational (potentially) fear that I have that the first big mistake means more mistakes will come and we are the old Knicks again, but Leon and co have a handle.
I do feel like OG is not gonna all of a sudden turn into a durable guy. Its something that has to be taken into account in the calculus.
Yea, he's not just gonna get durable. He's a guy you will have to baby a little bit with the minutes and load management ala Kawhi or many others. Try to get 60-65 games and a playoff run out of him each year. Draft a young bull in the first round who can step in his absence.
Randle is a wildcard, we probably owe it to him to see how they do with a fresh training camp and season and no injuries to start off the year. But I doubt the FO is super excited to supermax him at 32. They've been very shrewd letting Brock Aller play moneyball with contract bargains. I expect that same mindset to continue and have an impact on Randle's next deal.
I also don't see Mitch being here much longer, the guy is made of glass, and as a backup his role can be replaced with bargain deals or draft picks.
You know what worries me about OG? That he’ll be 85 percent in the playoffs and then shut it down a la Jeremy Lin
To me the concerns are more about the Knicks medical staff right now. A lot of flip flopping and they don’t seem to have a good grasp of the players injuries.
