Clean wrote:ESOMKnicks wrote:Nalod wrote:Yes Pano's, join us in being nervous, and yes apprehensive about his health. What is the real downside? Not our money? Not like we were going to win with IQ or RJ.
Sure, "We could have done better"!! Specifically thats not an easy answer.
You may be missing his point here. No one is worried about Dolan's pockets. But people are worried that we might be strapping ourselves into a financial straightjacket capwise. Given our cap-strapped history with the likes of Noah, these worries are legitimate. Especially given that we are tying all this money into a non-offensive player.
Now, I understand that there is a bias in thinking that a player who scores a lot is better than a player who defends a lot. And bias towards valuing statistical evidence, even on the defensive end (blocks, rebounds, stuff that big men like Bill Russell or Ben Wallace do). OG is average at best on offense and does not shine in any traditional defensive statistical categories. Add his injury history, and concerns about tying up so much of our cap on him look more than legitimate.The only consolation that may be offered is that this set up is only for the next 3 years. After that, the cap will rise and mitigate any overspending decisions made now. Plus, trading large contracts for some useful assets becomes easy when they are close to expiring. So, essentially, whatever mistakes we are making today are only with us for 3 years. The FO sees these 3 years as our contention window while Randle, Brunson, OG and Bridges are entering their prime. This is the best team the FO could have assembled at this time and for this window. Would it have been better if we added a legit two-way superstar? Sure, but did we have that option. Probably not. By the time DM became available, we were already committed to Brunson. And trading for people like Durant or Kyrie would have probably been decried as an even riskier strategy than throwing $$$ at OG.
My personal view is that trading RJ and IQ for OG was a mistake. Everything that has come after has been dictated by the logic of that trade, with hardly any wiggle room available for pivoting to another strategy. The hand was dealt, now we are playing it the only way it can be played. Maybe we get lucky, avoid major injuries as a team and compete at the highest level. The odds of it appear long. But at least we will not be reveling in the pleasures of watching a lottery team, like we were doing for most of this century.
We are going to be cap strapped no matter what. Brunson and Randle extentions are coming up. They will no longer be on team friendly deals. Harts extention kicks in next season. If we sign iHart his salary will take a huge spike. This is the reason why we did the trade for Bridges now. After this season even with the cap increases we will be capped out meaning these types of trades will have more restrictions to make it harder. Think about how close to hard cap we are now and we got Brunson and Randle on contracts that are about to double in size. So stop worrying about getting capped out. It is already going to happen. Knicks fans will have to get used to how every other team operates. We got lucky to have so many team friendly deals. Those days are over.You do know that RJ an IQ combined are going to be getting paid more than OG next season right? Cap situation would be way worse and they did not fit our team.
RJ will be making 25.7mil and IQ wanted at a minimum 25mil. We offered 20mil and he said no.
It's not only about being cap strapped. It's about having parts/assets that are moveable in the circumstances that you need to pivot. An injured player making $40m is ballast. Over the years, we've wasted SOO many assets just to get rid of bad contracts.
Panos wrote:Clean wrote:ESOMKnicks wrote:Nalod wrote:
Yes Pano's, join us in being nervous, and yes apprehensive about his health. What is the real downside? Not our money? Not like we were going to win with IQ or RJ.
Sure, "We could have done better"!! Specifically thats not an easy answer.
You may be missing his point here. No one is worried about Dolan's pockets. But people are worried that we might be strapping ourselves into a financial straightjacket capwise. Given our cap-strapped history with the likes of Noah, these worries are legitimate. Especially given that we are tying all this money into a non-offensive player.
Now, I understand that there is a bias in thinking that a player who scores a lot is better than a player who defends a lot. And bias towards valuing statistical evidence, even on the defensive end (blocks, rebounds, stuff that big men like Bill Russell or Ben Wallace do). OG is average at best on offense and does not shine in any traditional defensive statistical categories. Add his injury history, and concerns about tying up so much of our cap on him look more than legitimate.The only consolation that may be offered is that this set up is only for the next 3 years. After that, the cap will rise and mitigate any overspending decisions made now. Plus, trading large contracts for some useful assets becomes easy when they are close to expiring. So, essentially, whatever mistakes we are making today are only with us for 3 years. The FO sees these 3 years as our contention window while Randle, Brunson, OG and Bridges are entering their prime. This is the best team the FO could have assembled at this time and for this window. Would it have been better if we added a legit two-way superstar? Sure, but did we have that option. Probably not. By the time DM became available, we were already committed to Brunson. And trading for people like Durant or Kyrie would have probably been decried as an even riskier strategy than throwing $$$ at OG.
My personal view is that trading RJ and IQ for OG was a mistake. Everything that has come after has been dictated by the logic of that trade, with hardly any wiggle room available for pivoting to another strategy. The hand was dealt, now we are playing it the only way it can be played. Maybe we get lucky, avoid major injuries as a team and compete at the highest level. The odds of it appear long. But at least we will not be reveling in the pleasures of watching a lottery team, like we were doing for most of this century.
We are going to be cap strapped no matter what. Brunson and Randle extentions are coming up. They will no longer be on team friendly deals. Harts extention kicks in next season. If we sign iHart his salary will take a huge spike. This is the reason why we did the trade for Bridges now. After this season even with the cap increases we will be capped out meaning these types of trades will have more restrictions to make it harder. Think about how close to hard cap we are now and we got Brunson and Randle on contracts that are about to double in size. So stop worrying about getting capped out. It is already going to happen. Knicks fans will have to get used to how every other team operates. We got lucky to have so many team friendly deals. Those days are over.You do know that RJ an IQ combined are going to be getting paid more than OG next season right? Cap situation would be way worse and they did not fit our team.
RJ will be making 25.7mil and IQ wanted at a minimum 25mil. We offered 20mil and he said no.
It's not only about being cap strapped. It's about having parts/assets that are moveable in the circumstances that you need to pivot. An injured player making $40m is ballast. Over the years, we've wasted SOO many assets just to get rid of bad contracts.
I mean, at some point you gotta take your swing, no? What's your better alternative? OG lit it up here. Players get injured. Ntlikina. Knox. Barrett. Toppin. Not a single all star. New cap rules have teams tied up. No aggregating contracts. You actually need high price contracts if you want to take back high priced contracts. Is OG's more than I predicted? Yea. It is. I had it at $35m per. I was hoping to get to less. Hell, he can have the 212. Just structure it to be 20m this year under the option and a 4 year extension starting at 43m with 8% bumps.
ESOMKnicks wrote:Clean wrote:We are going to be cap strapped no matter what. Brunson and Randle extentions are coming up. They will no longer be on team friendly deals. Harts extention kicks in next season. If we sign iHart his salary will take a huge spike. This is the reason why we did the trade for Bridges now. After this season even with the cap increases we will be capped out meaning these types of trades will have more restrictions to make it harder. Think about how close to hard cap we are now and we got Brunson and Randle on contracts that are about to double in size. So stop worrying about getting capped out. It is already going to happen. Knicks fans will have to get used to how every other team operates. We got lucky to have so many team friendly deals. Those days are over.You do know that RJ an IQ combined are going to be getting paid more than OG next season right? Cap situation would be way worse and they did not fit our team.
RJ will be making 25.7mil and IQ wanted at a minimum 25mil. We offered 20mil and he said no.
This is a valid point, but it makes the choice appear more binary than it really is. It is true that the Knicks are prospectively coming under a pile of big extensions and contracts. But the deeper the pile, the more difficult the task of getting out from under it if things do not pan out. If I am Edgar Allan Poe, who is afraid of being buried alive, every extra foot in the depth of my grave is going to matter.
For example, would you see the task of trading OG making 40m per year as easier, than the task of trading RJ and IQ making 25m each? I would see the reverse.
For RJ, definitely. He was a negative value contract based on his performance with the team. One big reason for the Knicks improved play this season was that RJs FGAs went to more efficient scorers after he left.
IQ should have been starting the past four years. Ever since he blew up in the preseason he was the Knicks best guard and potentially best player until Brunson arrived. There's an alternative world where he played 36 a night and averaged 20/5/7 on 40% 3 point shooting. Any criticism of Thibodeau starts and ends there. For whatever reason IQ never got the minutes he deserved. After suffering through 21-22 when he averaged 23 a game so that Kemba and Burks could get 29 and 26, it was never going to happen.
I don't think IQ gets 25 either. He is projected as a top 5 FA this year. SA Orlando and Philly should be ponying up to steal him from Toronto.If he goes to Detroit he immediately becomes the best player on their roster.
Just some mental math:
1) The NBA's next TV contract is for an annual amount 2.55x greater than the current one.
2) If we can assume that the salary cap should rise by a similar factor, this guarantees 10% annual cap growth for the next 10 years (the max annual increase rate)
3) Therefore, over the duration of OG's contract in the next 5 years, the salary cap would be on average $172m
4) This means that he is set to make on average about 25% of the salary cap
5) Applying this percentage to today's cap gives us the equivalent of $35m. In other words, OG's average salary over the next 5 years is roughly comparable to $35m in today's NBA dollars
6) So, we are valuing OG roughly at the same level as players like Jamal Murray, Ingram, SGA, DM, MP Jr, LaMelo, Hali, Desmond Bane, De'Aaron Fox, Deandre Ayton, pre-extension Bam. I am leaving Tatum aside, he is vastly underpaid.
Where does OG stack versus players like that? Would a team ever trade any one of these guys for OG straight up? Regardless: for 25% of the cap you expect an All-Star level player. So, the question is: will OG be better than an All-Star player? Beyond his unique fit on the Knicks, if things do not pan out for any reason and he has to be moved, will other teams want him on their rosters at a price of an All-Star?
Since we was just speaking about Quick. He is making near OG money. Told yall he wanted to get PAID. Never doubt this FO. We would have had to pay 35mil per to a backup or lose him for nothing.
Wow. That should quell any lingering doubts about the OG trade. Good for Quick though.
DLeethal wrote:Wow. That should quell any lingering doubts about the OG trade. Good for Quick though.
People will still grasp at something. Quick did not even hit the open market. If the 76ers strikeout on a few more they could have dropped more money on him to team him up with his best friend Maxey.
Clean wrote:DLeethal wrote:Wow. That should quell any lingering doubts about the OG trade. Good for Quick though.
People will still grasp at something. Quick did not even hit the open market. If the 76ers strikeout on a few more they could have dropped more money on him to team him up with his best friend Maxey.
Okay, you win, case closed. I am psyched about having OG stay.
I might view IQ as more than a back up pg, but point taken. OG definitely affects winning more. And i think it's an understatement to say OG and Mikal are elite wing defenders, they are absolutely at the very top few. As good on D as Tatum and Brown on Offense. And as good on offense as tatum and brown on defense.
Chandler wrote:
I might view IQ as more than a back up pg, but point taken. OG definitely affects winning more. And i think it's an understatement to say OG and Mikal are elite wing defenders, they are absolutely at the very top few. As good on D as Tatum and Brown on Offense. And as good on offense as tatum and brown on defense.
I agree he is more than a backup but since we have Brunson he would have been a backup here. I was not throwing shade at quick. He still needs to prove it in the post season but he is a very good player.
IQ just got 5 years 175M. I think everyone needs to get used to these new salaries. It's the new normal.
Clean wrote:Since we was just speaking about Quick. He is making near OG money. Told yall he wanted to get PAID. Never doubt this FO. We would have had to pay 35mil per to a backup or lose him for nothing.
the whole "backup" thing was always silly and cope to me, b/c IQ is a starting level player and had the size to play off ball. He could have started next to Brunson just fine and staggering them to also have IQ give Brunson a much needed break at PG.
All that being said, we got DDV for $12m, and now Deuce at $3m which is absurd compared to IQ at $35m. So the FO knew what they were doing setting themselves up to be able to trade IQ and not miss a beat.
Quickley at 35mm should stop the puking about OG's contract. Now that we understand the market, lets go about our days!
Anyway, it actually makes me smile that we helped develop a guy from a late first rounder (reach as labeled by some) to a 35mm player. He's making more than RJ! And Jalen.
The FO knew the right time to strike with him.
martin wrote:
so many variations of this comp you can make, but how about Divo and Deuce 14m to IQ's 35m.
ESOMKnicks wrote:Just some mental math:1) The NBA's next TV contract is for an annual amount 2.55x greater than the current one.
2) If we can assume that the salary cap should rise by a similar factor, this guarantees 10% annual cap growth for the next 10 years (the max annual increase rate)
3) Therefore, over the duration of OG's contract in the next 5 years, the salary cap would be on average $172m
4) This means that he is set to make on average about 25% of the salary cap
5) Applying this percentage to today's cap gives us the equivalent of $35m. In other words, OG's average salary over the next 5 years is roughly comparable to $35m in today's NBA dollars
6) So, we are valuing OG roughly at the same level as players like Jamal Murray, Ingram, SGA, DM, MP Jr, LaMelo, Hali, Desmond Bane, De'Aaron Fox, Deandre Ayton, pre-extension Bam. I am leaving Tatum aside, he is vastly underpaid.
Where does OG stack versus players like that? Would a team ever trade any one of these guys for OG straight up? Regardless: for 25% of the cap you expect an All-Star level player. So, the question is: will OG be better than an All-Star player? Beyond his unique fit on the Knicks, if things do not pan out for any reason and he has to be moved, will other teams want him on their rosters at a price of an All-Star?
The average salary cap value over the next 5 years is irrelevant to OG's trade value. His value would be impacted by whatever the cap is at the time of a potential trade. Further, guys like SGA, Fox, Ball etc will likely be getting max or super-max deals at over $60m plus per season. You have to factor that into the comparison. Also, the Knicks would have other playerd to move if things go south and they need to move assets.
Maybe IQ and RJ are as good as Mikal and OG one day but this is not about "one day". IM happy IQ got paid and knicks were able to put him and RJ in good situation. I hope they are very successful as long as we are as well! Knicks succeed its all good.
Brunson and IQ could play together but it was not ideal and for that kind of coin you want it ideal1
Nalod wrote:Maybe IQ and RJ are as good as Mikal and OG one day but this is not about "one day". IM happy IQ got paid and knicks were able to put him and RJ in good situation. I hope they are very successful as long as we are as well! Knicks succeed its all good.
Brunson and IQ could play together but it was not ideal and for that kind of coin you want it ideal1
Leon does long term good business. Maybe this isn’t always necessarily purposeful but there is a reputation that is built for relationship.
Obi and AJ Griffen moves fit into the same territory for me.
martin wrote:
wants his solution for someone who cant watch vid?
nycericanguy wrote:martin wrote:
wants his solution for someone who cant watch vid?
Fred plagiarizing PhilC again??
