Knicks · 2024-25 schedule out (page 1)
Some schedule analysis:
https://www.lastnightinbasketball.com/p/...
Finally, this might be confusing phrasing, but the easiest 10-game stretch among the each team’s toughest 10-game stretch belongs to the Knicks. You can see in the table above that their toughest 10-game stretch of the year sees them play against teams with an over-under of just 46.3 wins — tied with the Spurs for the lowest in the league and more than five games lower than the aforementioned Suns stretch.Starting just before the All-Star break and continuing after it, the Knicks get to face the Hawks and Bulls in the midst of a span where they play just two teams with an over-under above 50 wins: the Celtics and 76ers, with two days of rest in between.
The toughest games in the remainder of that stretch are against the Pacers, Cavs, and Grizzlies. Those are good teams, but it’s nothing like the tougher stretches of schedule for the teams we ran through above.
San Antonio’s similar stretch sees the Spurs play double-headers against the Lakers, Grizzlies, and Pacers amidst games against the Bucks (first game), Heat, Clippers, and then Bucks again (10th game). In terms of the concentration of opponents, I think it’s certainly the weirdest stretch any team has this season.
https://knicksfilmschool.substack.com/p/...
His results were very favorable to the Knicks, whose toughest 10-game stretch is the easiest of any team’s hardest stretch of 10 games (I hope that made sense). The average over/under of the teams they play during that most difficult stretch (which takes place from February 8 to March 4 and features games vs Boston, Indy, Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Boston again, Philly, Memphis, Miami and Golden State) is 46.3. By comparison, the Suns have the hardest 10-game stretch in the league, with an average opponent over/under of 51.5.Looking at the other “hardest” stretches for the Knicks, they fare well across the board. Their toughest 9-game stretch is the 4th easiest league-wide, their toughest 8-game stretch is 3rd easiest, their toughest 6 & 7-game stretches are 6th easiest, and their toughest 5-game stretch is 10th easiest. In essence, as much as anyone in the league, the Knicks get pockets of smooth sailing amidst the bumpiest parts of their schedule. We’ll see if it makes a difference.
Dubin’s analysis inspired me to do a little digging of my own in light of the recent Ian Begley report that Julius Randle and especially Mitchell Robinson may not be fully healthy by the time camp starts. Even though New York’s opening stretch isn’t their most difficult 10-game span of the season (it’s the second toughest, by my math), it’s a pretty brutal way to come out of the gate if multiple key pieces are still recovering from injury. But will those games - at Boston, vs Indy, vs Cleveland, at Miami, at Detroit, at Houston, at Atlanta, vs Milwaukee, at Indy and at Philly - go a long way in determining whether they can finish at the top of the East?
Not necessarily. I took a look at the last five seasons and went back to see how each of the top four playoff seeds in each conference fared over their first 10 games. Here’s what I found:
As you can see, getting off to a hot start isn’t a prerequisite to finish with a strong seed, especially in the East. Among the 20 eventual top-four East seeds over the last five years, half started off 6-4 or worse, including three eventual two-seeds. The West has had it a bit tougher, with fewer tankers and more quality depth, but even there, seven top-four seeds started 6-4 or worse, including last year’s top-seeded Thunder.
Assuming New York can get wins against the two likely lottery teams (Detroit and Atlanta), they should be able to go at least .500 in the other eight games.
History says that should be good enough.
