Knicks · Buzz Kill Ian: Worst case scenario....... (page 1)

Not hate, not a prediction, just a scenario thats plausable.

Every team has it. Just ask the Philadelphia Eagles!

Don't read it if you can't handle it.

Nixluva's worst nightmare, but was have seen this movie before!

11:12AM ETEmailPrintCommentsBy Ian BegleyContinuing through Dec. 23, ESPNNewYork.com will run a series called "Christmas Countdown," examining a hot topic each day that surrounds "your New ... York ... Knicks!" as PA announcer Mike Walczewski says with slight pauses and strong punctuation.

Today's Hot Topic: Worst-case scenario

If you're wearing rose-colored glasses, please remove them before reading any further.

We won't be talking about what the Knicks have to do to make a run to the NBA title. Nor will we be discussing how much they can improve with Tyson Chandler in the paint.

Rather, we're examining the possibility that Amare Stoudemire can't keep up with the 66-game schedule; that the Knicks' back court can't handle the spotlight; that they show no improvement on the defensive end under assistant Mike Woodson.

You know, Doomsday stuff.

Why? Because there's a possibility any of the above could happen (and our editors asked us to).

So let's take a look at what could (reasonably) go wrong for the Knicks this season, and the ramifications of each failure.

STOUDEMIRE CAN'T HANDLE THE SCHEDULE: Stoudemire played in all 18 of the Knicks' games in March last season. In six of those 18, he played more than 40 minutes. At the end of the month, the nine-year vet called that manic March "maybe the hardest month I've played in my career."

The bad news for Stoudemire is this: the Knicks will play an average of 17 games per month this season.

How will Stoudemire's balky back and surgically repaired knees respond to the tough schedule?

The worst-case scenario here has Stoumire struggling through nagging injuries and missing time. If so, that would certainly hinder the Knicks on offense.

CARMELO ANTHONY AS A FACILITATOR: The Knicks have penciled Toney Douglas in as their starting point guard. But Mike D'Antoni has said that Carmelo Anthony will get an opportunity to facilitate the offense, much like Larry Bird did in Boston.

Here's the problem with that: what if Anthony facilitates the offense only for himself, freezing out other teammates?

Anthony showed last season (and throughout his career) that he stops the ball on offense. So relying on him to keep teammates involved may be a dicey proposition -- particularly if Stoudemire doesn't get as many touches as he's accustomed to.

Remember, Stoudemire's scoring averaged dipped about three points after Anthony came to New York last season.

The worst-case scenario here has Anthony and Stoudemire sniping at one another over who's taking more shots and the Knicks suffering as a result.

DEFENSE DOESN'T IMPROVE: The Knicks' defense -- which was downright offensive at times last season -- should improve with Chandler's presence in the paint.

Woodson was brought in as an assistant coach to help teach strengthen the Knicks on the defensive end. But what if he can't get through to any Knicks not named Chandler? What if Anthony continues to play defense on selective possessions? What if Stoudemire's reluctance to play hard-nosed 'D' when he's in foul trouble still burns the Knicks?

The worst-case scenario here has the Knicks finishing with the seventh or eighth seed in the East and getting swept by Miami or Chicago in the first round. This would lead to D'Antoni not being asked back for next season. For some of you, of course, that wouldn't be a bad thing at all.

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No.

Any objective observer would realize one or more outcomes described above scenario are legitimate possibilities. In addition to a relatively high ceiling, this team has a very low floor.

Really? he got paid to write that?

Worst case scenario that I could see playing out is Stat goes down for the season, either with the back or his knee, and we're stuck with Melo having to play Bernard King with a really questionable cast of fillers. Defense is better, but Melo still plays half the time (on offense). Chandler hangs on all year, helps on the boards and with paint defense, but with minutes limited by fouls (since he's the only one playing defense).

And we scrap by playing 400 ball, with maybe a shot at the 8th seed, but missing it by that much!

franco12 wrote:Really? he got paid to write that?

Worst case scenario that I could see playing out is Stat goes down for the season, either with the back or his knee, and we're stuck with Melo having to play Bernard King with a really questionable cast of fillers. Defense is better, but Melo still plays half the time (on offense). Chandler hangs on all year, helps on the boards and with paint defense, but with minutes limited by fouls (since he's the only one playing defense).

And we scrap by playing 400 ball, with maybe a shot at the 8th seed, but missing it by that much!

So you don't disagree with him?

Ever teams success has to do with health and luck....in other words fuck this guy

EnySpree wrote:Ever teams success has to do with health and luck....in other words fuck this guy

We have a lower downside than many other teams labeled contenders though and a higher probability of one or more of the major concerns happening.

Ian is a good guy and I don't think he really believes these things will happen. The knicks weren't anywhere close to this balanced size wise and I think the least likely thing is that they won't defend. So long as they do then everything else will fall in line.

If Lebron Falls same scenario.

Or Derrick Rose, Or Kobe........

ON a star dependent team this can happen.

When we signed Stat we knew going in this is possible.

What is noted is our backcourt is untested to the degree there is a heavy burdan on those untested shoulders.

Luck is a big part of it. Dirk not healthy they don't even make it past the 2nd round last year!

nixluva wrote:Ian is a good guy and I don't think he really believes these things will happen. The knicks weren't anywhere close to this balanced size wise and I think the least likely thing is that they won't defend. So long as they do then everything else will fall in line.

Point 1 (Amare injury): Probability unclear
Point 2 (Melo bad as a point forward): Based on his 8-year career as an inefficient ball-stopper, I'd have to say the probability is high.
Point 3 (defense unimproved): As long as Chandler is healthy, I'd rate the probability as low.

Bonn1997 wrote:

EnySpree wrote:Ever teams success has to do with health and luck....in other words fuck this guy

We have a lower downside than many other teams labeled contenders though and a higher probability of one or more of the major concerns happening.

Everyone is hype about the clippers....Chris Paul has bad knees how quickly the experts forget. Blake griffin broke his leg deleting his real rookie season but everyone forgot about that.Caron butler had a season ending injury in Dallas. Chancey had a season ending injury for the Knicks. The clippers are cursed.

Let someone write a doomsday story about them and collect a check. Why do writers love to hate the Knicks?

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:Ian is a good guy and I don't think he really believes these things will happen. The knicks weren't anywhere close to this balanced size wise and I think the least likely thing is that they won't defend. So long as they do then everything else will fall in line.

Point 1 (Amare injury): Probability unclear
Point 2 (Melo bad as a point forward): Based on his 8-year career as an inefficient ball-stopper, I'd have to say the probability is high.
Point 3 (defense unimproved): As long as Chandler is healthy, I'd rate the probability as low.

STAT played 82 in his last year in PHX, plus playoffs. Last year he took on an extremely high workload. He clearly broke down under the strain. the simple solution was to bring in help and to limit his playing time. Discounting freak injury that can happen to anyone at anytime, i'm not worried about this.

The defense improving is IMO the most likely thing to actually take place. So long as they defend, they will get more easy baskets and the offensive issues will be less of a concern. Also remember they were bumping into each other after the trade and STILL put up big offensive numbers. I doubt that the team will look anything like it did at that time, so i'm not that worried. The offense may not be the smoothest but they should be able to score well enough to win.

nixluva wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

nixluva wrote:Ian is a good guy and I don't think he really believes these things will happen. The knicks weren't anywhere close to this balanced size wise and I think the least likely thing is that they won't defend. So long as they do then everything else will fall in line.

Point 1 (Amare injury): Probability unclear
Point 2 (Melo bad as a point forward): Based on his 8-year career as an inefficient ball-stopper, I'd have to say the probability is high.
Point 3 (defense unimproved): As long as Chandler is healthy, I'd rate the probability as low.

STAT played 82 in his last year in PHX, plus playoffs. Last year he took on an extremely high workload. He clearly broke down under the strain. the simple solution was to bring in help and to limit his playing time. Discounting freak injury that can happen to anyone at anytime, i'm not worried about this.

The defense improving is IMO the most likely thing to actually take place. So long as they defend, they will get more easy baskets and the offensive issues will be less of a concern. Also remember they were bumping into each other after the trade and STILL put up big offensive numbers. I doubt that the team will look anything like it did at that time, so i'm not that worried. The offense may not be the smoothest but they should be able to score well enough to win.

1. We agree on the defense being highly likely to improve.
2. Who cares how many games Amare played a few seasons ago with Phoenix? You can't possibly know how his back will heal. Listing the probability as "unknown" is the only reasonable assessment.
3. You ignored the most probable problem: having an inefficient ball-stopper running the offense.

EnySpree wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

EnySpree wrote:Ever teams success has to do with health and luck....in other words fuck this guy

We have a lower downside than many other teams labeled contenders though and a higher probability of one or more of the major concerns happening.

Everyone is hype about the clippers....Chris Paul has bad knees how quickly the experts forget. Blake griffin broke his leg deleting his real rookie season but everyone forgot about that.Caron butler had a season ending injury in Dallas. Chancey had a season ending injury for the Knicks. The clippers are cursed.

Let someone write a doomsday story about them and collect a check. Why do writers love to hate the Knicks?

I'm not sure how we got on the Clippers but I agree they have a bad downside. They at least don't have anything illogical in their plan, though, like running the offense through a ball-stopper.

Bonn, we all know what the risks are. Even nixluva and misterearl know that Melos defense is suspect and Amar'es back could be a problem...

However, headed into the season, it's a buzzkill b/c we are excited about the team, and it's like dating a super as hell hot chick. I mean smoking hot from hair to toes she's everything you can dream of. She has a wonderful personality too so she has awesome potential for you. Yet then, before you go on a date, your good friend or someone close goes up to you and says "Hey Bonn, just remember, if she's not into you, then she's not gonna date you any further and she certainly wont get you laid."...

Yeah, you're well aware of it... but why say it before the season or the date starts? If it happens that sucks, but why think of it?

In short... we don't wanna hear that sheeeot.

Allanfan20 wrote:In short... we don't wanna hear that sheeeot.

Word!

The 800 pound Gorilla in the room. But it is true for any team. What will the Mavs do without Dirk? What will the Bulls do without Derrick Rose.

we lived 10 years of the worst case scenario. do we really have to read about it before it happens?

eViL wrote:we lived 10 years of the worst case scenario. do we really have to read about it before it happens?

Nah mean!

The 82 games and playoff run was not ancient history, it was the season before he came to NY!!! Then when he came here he took on an even bigger load and that's got more to do with his getting tired at the end of the season. The back muscle thing is a fluke. You can't act like it's some chronic issue with no proof. How did STAT look in game one before the back injury? So let's not make stuff up. He played 82 + playoffs and then here he played 78 games, so it's not like he hasn't been able to make it thru a season. We'll never see Amar'e log the same kind of minutes and playing C like he did last year again. So long as he's not overworked that's the important thing. Tyson makes that all possible.

Look barring injury, which is the case for every teams, the negatives are there but not to a high degree. This team hasn't even finished filling out the roster yet.