Knicks · The Myth That Postseason Basketball Is Different (page 1)

In the book Moneyball (yes the book, not the movie), there is a discussion of the myth that many major league managers and coaches and spectators have about the postseason. The myth is that in the postseason, "runs need to be manufactured". It comes from the belief that since games often are low scoring or very close, that you try to "manufacture" runs by more aggressively bunting, or stealing bases, etc. Sounds about right -- except it's not. Using advanced statistical analysis, it was determined that postseason baseball is the same as regular season baseball -- the best policy is to try to preserve your "outs". So that means no sacrifice bunts, no attempts at steals, and no attempt at "manufacturing runs".

There's been a lot of talk on these boards that in the postseason, that you have to have Iso plays, or that you can't do the pick and roll, or other notion without any actual analysis. It is these types of myths that mislead people to undervalue certain players or ways of playing, and knowing fact from fiction led General Manager Billy Beane to have huge success with the Oakland A's (being one of the top teams in baseball while having one of the lowest payrolls).

What wins games in the regular season will win games in the playoffs. Playing good defense, working hard, taking high percentage shots, and having some fortune go your way.

look, every championship coach, look up his history: how many years did it take to win his first championship?

you can't say a guy IS or ISN'T a championship coach on five or six or ten seasons. larry brown took 21 years, or about that, and now he's a legend.

55+ wins every year in phoenix, IN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE WHICH WAS THE STRONGEST CONFERENCE, EVER, THE WORLD HAS EVER SEEN, i say you give a guy like that a chance. extend MDA.

CHOOSE MDA, DOLAN!

I'm sure the same is true with the idea that performance in the "clutch" is different from in the first 47 min.

well, it is different in the playoffs because you have a little more rest ( some first round games have three days between them) as well as time to prepare for each game. because of this and the fact that if you lose you are out, the intensity is increased. this has benefited defensive minded veteran teams like boston for years.

I'll say this. Whenever Melo has been a lower seeded team playing against an elite team with HCA, the postseason feels like hell. No easy baskets. An increasing win margin for the other team after each game. But when he's had HCA, beating up trash teams was just like the regular season. The Nuggets either swept or beat the Hornets back in 2009 in 5 games, holding them to a record low 62 point game. Then we trashed the Mavericks next round with Melo dropping a gamewinner in Dallas. So playoff perception has more to do with seeding than anything else. Ask Landry Fields.

Bonn, that is a good point and I agree with you. See, the other posters above show a good example (people seem to cite "intensity" and "more on the line" -- this may be true, but it does not mean that you change the way you play basketball (tactics/strategy). The only actual difference may be the spacing of games and that you play one team consecutively. There may be more to lose, but teams are trying to win just as much. Teams are playing just as hard (sometimes harder -- depending on the game) in the regular season.

Some have said the JLin can't play PicknRoll, or that he can't be as successful in the playoffs, etc. If JLin plays poorly like he did against Miami, well then we'll have a hard time. If he plays well, we'll do well (same with Melo). Not much is different just because it's the playoffs.

we are constantly adjusting and learning on the fly with new lineups, players, and rookies.
While we have gained a lot of depth now, we still have to find our "identity" that we are constantly changing.
With limited practice and this schedule, its really hard to learn and adapt, especially to develop chemistry.
We will have to figure out our lineups, 2nd units, which players work best together, while preserving enough energy to rotate efficiently.
This was why Dantoni constantly was playing our starters + 2nd unit players in the Atlanta game, instead of putting TD + Bibby in to preserving energy vs Miami.

Dantoni knows TC and Amare doesn't work well for each other with our 2nd unit players, that is why Amare is always the first to go.
He also knows Fields doesn't have the ability to play SG, with his lack of speed, quickness, and ability to hit the shot, unless the match ups are weak.
But he doesn't have the balls or fears he will break their confidence if he throws Amare and Fields out of the starting lineup, especially for Amare.
Our starting lineup, just doesn't work well together, but he fails to do anything about it.
He is very stubborn, even JJ, shouldn't be playing many minutes on certain days and with some lineups, but he does it anyway.
It is the same reason why Lin, didn't get the chance to play earlier.
Even though EVERY guard got plenty of chances to fail and fail again. the same reason why Darko never got off the dog house
With Jorts coming back, there will be even more tweaks, to adjust, as he fits better as a Center vs a PF, while TC is our best defensive player on the team.
Jorts just doesn't have the ability to play PF, without the ability to penetrate, blow past his man, if the PF defends his shot.
He probably helps Amare's game the most, with his ability to spread the floor, but they are quite weak as a combo, defensively at the PF/C.
He has half the season left to find out his rotations and develop the chemistry for the team.

I would like to slowly give a chance back to TD to find back his confidence, as we now have the players that can handle the ball, penetrate, and take the facilitating away from him.
Having another player that can hit the 3pointer, if he can find back his groove he had last year, would really help.
He is just not a PG and plays horrible defense, but he has the physical abilities to be a good defender.
The coaching staff needs to work back his confidence and fix his errors.

Lin
Iman
Melo
Novak
TC

BD
JR Smith/ TD
Fields/ Walker
Amare/ JJ
Jorts/ Jordan

I think Walker is a horrible defender, but he does have good size, and is one of our streaky shooters that has been hitting the 3pointer at a good % for much of the year.
We became quite deep but we have are in the process of finding/developing the right rotations and chemistry.
From each player individually, to players learning how to play with each other, and playing with differently lineups, will take time.
I guess this is a good problem to have, as we now have a improved our depth, but have a hard time finding minutes for everyone on the roster.

I think Fields and Amare's PT has to go down, on many nights, with the players we currently have, we have that luxury.
Amare doesn't have a stretch 4, to play small ball, like we did last year, while spreading the floor, and playing good defense with speed and athleticism.
He does have a Center that can stretch the floor with Jorts though, with JR Smith being a player that can help penetrate, and capable of creating his own shot/even for others.
Smith has grown tremendously as a person, he isn't the same kid that he was in his past years, I owe an apology to him, as I thought he would never change, from his cancer ways.
His talent was never a question, but he has matured as a player and a person, something he might have learned during his time in China.

IMO it's not a myth. I don't believe that Playoffs are the same as the regular season at all. For one thing teams prep to a much greater degree in the post season. This is why teams get exposed in a way that you don't see in the regular season. You might be able to get by in the regular season with a team that has huge flaws in a specific area, but in the playoffs the teams are better and have the ability to take certain parts of your game away or exploit a weakness.

Say your team has weak interior D like the Suns did for years or can't defend the PnR due to having a slow big that can't defend on the perimeter like Shaq later in his career. Maybe your team doesn't have a viable halfcourt offense like the Hawks or enough scorers like the Bulls last year. You may have a lack of depth or maybe a weak spot at a key position like PG. In the playoffs your weaknesses will get exposed and if you don't find a way to fix those areas or overcome them with excellence somewhere else you will lose.

i agree with OP. the idea that you have to play a completely different game in the playoffs is not entirely true. what happens is that the defenses are more keyed in and more prepared because they are focusing entirely on one team -- their current playoff opponent. this leads to teams being knocked out of their offense more often and finding themselves in situations where the shot clock is winding down. this results in the need for more isolation plays.

however, all that being said, it's not like you start the game with a whole different style of play. you play your game and when the defense really digs in, you put the ball in your playmaker's hands and let him do what he does.

I think we are going to do well in the playoffs this season. Teams are already preparing for us and throwing all kinds of defenses at us. This will hlep us get used to what the teams will likely try in the playoffs against us. Right now we are the team everyone wants to beat. That can only be a good thing.

The problem is that we can't say it is a myth. A study has never been done. From my own personal observations in the postseason, I can tell you that scores are lower and defenses are tighter because they are more familiar with their opponents plays and tendencies. That's why coaches want iso players who can create their own shots when plays breakdown.

the funny thing about the moneyball teams is that the yankees, who granted had a ton more money than the A's, went into the post-season and swept them with small ball. it was all bunts, steals, baserunning and pitching.

i think you need the stats working for you, but conventional wisdom is that you don't win a championship without elite defense and elite big men. hard to find a team that didn't have one or the other - most have both.

the heat might win this year without an elite big man, but they're almost using the bulls old strategy of having the best two all around players in the league and a suffocating defense. getting the best two players in the league isn't exactly a formula most teams can follow though. that said, the heat still struggle with late game situations on offense and it could be their achilles heel in the playoffs again.

crzymdups wrote:the funny thing about the moneyball teams is that the yankees, who granted had a ton more money than the A's, went into the post-season and swept them with small ball. it was all bunts, steals, baserunning and pitching.

i think you need the stats working for you, but conventional wisdom is that you don't win a championship without elite defense and elite big men. hard to find a team that didn't have one or the other - most have both.

the heat might win this year without an elite big man, but they're almost using the bulls old strategy of having the best two all around players in the league and a suffocating defense. getting the best two players in the league isn't exactly a formula most teams can follow though. that said, the heat still struggle with late game situations on offense and it could be their achilles heel in the playoffs again.

The Hest are playing at an obscenely high level and nobody beleives they can keep this up. They are expending a lot of energy right now and while their chemistry is awesome they are going to be very tired and exhausted come playoff time. Add to that the late game chkoing becomes a self fullfilling prophecy for Lebron in each post season it could still mean they get eventually bunced. If they don't win it this year, who knows if they can even keep it together next year?

Myth?..The intensity of playoff basketball is a myth???..Really?? The intensity of Knicks/Heat was like all other games..Get real guys..

Moneyball????

holfresh wrote:Myth?..The intensity of playoff basketball is a myth???..Really?? The intensity of Knicks/Heat was like all other games..Get real guys..

Moneyball????

no one said the intensity is a myth.

holfresh wrote:Myth?..The intensity of playoff basketball is a myth???..Really?? The intensity of Knicks/Heat was like all other games..Get real guys..

Moneyball????

Any idiot knows that playoffs mean more. But does that mean you should change the way you play? The answer is no. Good basketball is good basketball, whether you're playing a pickup game or the NBA playoffs. Is the World Series more intense than a regular season game? Yes, but you should still just play good solid baseball in order to win. You don't try to "manufacture runs" like advocated by Joe Morgan, the Hall of Fame second baseman and broadcaster for the Twins/A's playoff series. About this Billy Beane said "The math works. But no matter how many times you prove it, you have to prove it again". Even the Yankees, if you look at their playoff scores (from the book), won handily by 9-1 and 8-3 (not smallball numbers) in their wins.

So there is fact out there, and if you think about it it makes sense. The only way the playoffs would be different are if both teams agreed to play at 75% intensity in the regular season, and 100% during the postseason. The only actual differences (being a given that both teams are always trying to play their best), is the scheduling and that you're playing one team consecutively. You may change tactics based on those two differences alone, but none of this "JLin is not going to be able to do this in postseason" and "no PnR in postseason". There are actual anylyses available for people that want genuine answers, and then there are people who just tell you that postseason is different because of "intensity".

nehemiah wrote:

holfresh wrote:Myth?..The intensity of playoff basketball is a myth???..Really?? The intensity of Knicks/Heat was like all other games..Get real guys..

Moneyball????

Any idiot knows that playoffs mean more. But does that mean you should change the way you play? The answer is no. Good basketball is good basketball, whether you're playing a pickup game or the NBA playoffs. Is the World Series more intense than a regular season game? Yes, but you should still just play good solid baseball in order to win. You don't try to "manufacture runs" like advocated by Joe Morgan, the Hall of Fame second baseman and broadcaster for the Twins/A's playoff series. About this Billy Beane said "The math works. But no matter how many times you prove it, you have to prove it again". Even the Yankees, if you look at their playoff scores (from the book), won handily by 9-1 and 8-3 (not smallball numbers) in their wins.

So there is fact out there, and if you think about it it makes sense. The only way the playoffs would be different are if both teams agreed to play at 75% intensity in the regular season, and 100% during the postseason. The only actual differences (being a given that both teams are always trying to play their best), is the scheduling and that you're playing one team consecutively. You may change tactics based on those two differences alone, but none of this "JLin is not going to be able to do this in postseason" and "no PnR in postseason". There are actual anylyses available for people that want genuine answers, and then there are people who just tell you that postseason is different because of "intensity".

You my friend have no clue..Stick to baseball...

holfresh wrote:

nehemiah wrote:

holfresh wrote:Myth?..The intensity of playoff basketball is a myth???..Really?? The intensity of Knicks/Heat was like all other games..Get real guys..

Moneyball????

Any idiot knows that playoffs mean more. But does that mean you should change the way you play? The answer is no. Good basketball is good basketball, whether you're playing a pickup game or the NBA playoffs. Is the World Series more intense than a regular season game? Yes, but you should still just play good solid baseball in order to win. You don't try to "manufacture runs" like advocated by Joe Morgan, the Hall of Fame second baseman and broadcaster for the Twins/A's playoff series. About this Billy Beane said "The math works. But no matter how many times you prove it, you have to prove it again". Even the Yankees, if you look at their playoff scores (from the book), won handily by 9-1 and 8-3 (not smallball numbers) in their wins.

So there is fact out there, and if you think about it it makes sense. The only way the playoffs would be different are if both teams agreed to play at 75% intensity in the regular season, and 100% during the postseason. The only actual differences (being a given that both teams are always trying to play their best), is the scheduling and that you're playing one team consecutively. You may change tactics based on those two differences alone, but none of this "JLin is not going to be able to do this in postseason" and "no PnR in postseason". There are actual anylyses available for people that want genuine answers, and then there are people who just tell you that postseason is different because of "intensity".

You my friend have no clue

I don't like how you come at people.

Change yourself.

Nehemiah brings strong things to the table. Good hoops is good hoops, you just go a little harder in the playoffs. But a basketball game is a basketball game!

You seem to think that it turns into a different sport when the playoffs start. It doesn't. Still same sport.

MarburyAnd1Crossover wrote:

holfresh wrote:

nehemiah wrote:

holfresh wrote:Myth?..The intensity of playoff basketball is a myth???..Really?? The intensity of Knicks/Heat was like all other games..Get real guys..

Moneyball????

Any idiot knows that playoffs mean more. But does that mean you should change the way you play? The answer is no. Good basketball is good basketball, whether you're playing a pickup game or the NBA playoffs. Is the World Series more intense than a regular season game? Yes, but you should still just play good solid baseball in order to win. You don't try to "manufacture runs" like advocated by Joe Morgan, the Hall of Fame second baseman and broadcaster for the Twins/A's playoff series. About this Billy Beane said "The math works. But no matter how many times you prove it, you have to prove it again". Even the Yankees, if you look at their playoff scores (from the book), won handily by 9-1 and 8-3 (not smallball numbers) in their wins.

So there is fact out there, and if you think about it it makes sense. The only way the playoffs would be different are if both teams agreed to play at 75% intensity in the regular season, and 100% during the postseason. The only actual differences (being a given that both teams are always trying to play their best), is the scheduling and that you're playing one team consecutively. You may change tactics based on those two differences alone, but none of this "JLin is not going to be able to do this in postseason" and "no PnR in postseason". There are actual anylyses available for people that want genuine answers, and then there are people who just tell you that postseason is different because of "intensity".

You my friend have no clue

I don't like how you come at people.

Change yourself.

Nehemiah brings strong things to the table. Good hoops is good hoops, you just go a little harder in the playoffs. But a basketball game is a basketball game!

You seem to think that it turns into a different sport when the playoffs start. It doesn't. Still same sport.

I'm done..This board has become twitter

holfresh wrote:

MarburyAnd1Crossover wrote:

holfresh wrote:

nehemiah wrote:

holfresh wrote:Myth?..The intensity of playoff basketball is a myth???..Really?? The intensity of Knicks/Heat was like all other games..Get real guys..

Moneyball????

Any idiot knows that playoffs mean more. But does that mean you should change the way you play? The answer is no. Good basketball is good basketball, whether you're playing a pickup game or the NBA playoffs. Is the World Series more intense than a regular season game? Yes, but you should still just play good solid baseball in order to win. You don't try to "manufacture runs" like advocated by Joe Morgan, the Hall of Fame second baseman and broadcaster for the Twins/A's playoff series. About this Billy Beane said "The math works. But no matter how many times you prove it, you have to prove it again". Even the Yankees, if you look at their playoff scores (from the book), won handily by 9-1 and 8-3 (not smallball numbers) in their wins.

So there is fact out there, and if you think about it it makes sense. The only way the playoffs would be different are if both teams agreed to play at 75% intensity in the regular season, and 100% during the postseason. The only actual differences (being a given that both teams are always trying to play their best), is the scheduling and that you're playing one team consecutively. You may change tactics based on those two differences alone, but none of this "JLin is not going to be able to do this in postseason" and "no PnR in postseason". There are actual anylyses available for people that want genuine answers, and then there are people who just tell you that postseason is different because of "intensity".

You my friend have no clue

I don't like how you come at people.

Change yourself.

Nehemiah brings strong things to the table. Good hoops is good hoops, you just go a little harder in the playoffs. But a basketball game is a basketball game!

You seem to think that it turns into a different sport when the playoffs start. It doesn't. Still same sport.

I'm done..This board has become twitter

You mean because of comments like this?

"Myth?..The intensity of playoff basketball is a myth???..Really?? The intensity of Knicks/Heat was like all other games..Get real guys..

Moneyball????"

crzymdups wrote:the funny thing about the moneyball teams is that the yankees, who granted had a ton more money than the A's, went into the post-season and swept them with small ball. it was all bunts, steals, baserunning and pitching.

i think you need the stats working for you, but conventional wisdom is that you don't win a championship without elite defense and elite big men. hard to find a team that didn't have one or the other - most have both.

the heat might win this year without an elite big man, but they're almost using the bulls old strategy of having the best two all around players in the league and a suffocating defense. getting the best two players in the league isn't exactly a formula most teams can follow though. that said, the heat still struggle with late game situations on offense and it could be their achilles heel in the playoffs again.

Yes, the Yankees won. But not because "small ball" is better. Billy Beane's system maximized the effectiveness of the A's only -- it doesn't do anything for the other team. The Yankees, with three times the higher salary total, could afford to not utilize the best tactics and still were better than the A's. Also, the numbers that favor the Moneyball system work best when the sample size is large (law of averages). Small sample sizes can give a different picture -- however, if given enough playoff games, the system has proven itself mathematically. That is why the Red Sox hired Bill James for his sabermetric advice, and how the MLB have adapted to this system. It is an evidence based system, not just speculative.

That is why I am not surprised that the only person who seemed to have predicted Jeremy Lin's success is a guy who is interested in "sabermetrics" type analysis for basketball. Ed Weiland, the FedEx truck driver, said "I've always had a mind for numbers, the statistical side of sports". http://articles.cnn.com/2012-02-20/us/us...