Knicks · Moneyball: Pack-the-paint; Why the Knicks shoot 3's => why Bargnani is a good fit (page 1)

Wayne Winston is a mathematics professor at Indiana. He has worked for Mark Cuban and has pioneered basketball +/-.
What he does is not revolutionary. He analyzes lineups scoring differentials using different statistical methods.

Wayne Winston is a consultant for the NY Knicks.

After every Knicks game Winston emails a detailed report to 15 Knicks staff members, including members of the coaching staff up to the front office. Included in the report is the effectiveness of each player per 48-minute game, which he and Sagarin calculate by taking the raw plus/minus and adjusting it to the other nine players on the court and the strength of the opponent. The email also includes the best 2-3-4-5 player combinations, best and worst lineups, effectiveness of each player by position, and the impact each player has on the game by quarter relative to the average NBA player (discounting garbage time)
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/dr-wayne-wi...
Mon, Feb 25, 2013 10:56 AM EST

(great video)
Winston says that the best lineups for any team in the NBA had at least three 3-point shooters on the court at one time; Having four 3-point shooters with 1 big did even better. http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=9299243

The reason is if you have 2 or more folks that can't shoot, you can follow the San Antonio Spurs model of "pack-the-paint" (quoted below from espn).

From Henry Abbott at ESPN’s TrueHoop:

“It’s a copycat league, and the cat they copy most is the one who just won it all.

But let’s be real: Without infinite cap space and three of the 20 best players on the free-agent market, you’re not copying the Heat.

However, this season’s Finals did, in fact, present a powerful and important concept that any team might steal — just not from the winners.

In the right situation, it’s both devastatingly effective and so easy that old men in pickup games have been using it for decades.

What is this mysterious weapon? It’s a trick from the other team that made it to Game 7 of the Finals, the San Antonio Spurs.

It’s the Spurs’ pack-the-paint and make-the-shooters-prove-it defense….

…

“The Spurs’ effective pack-the-paint defense is great for teams searching for ways to stop paint scorers and bad for people who like dunks in traffic. But, as we’ll get into, the real victims are not LeBron and the like, but NBA players who don’t love shooting 3s, including some big names on the free-agent market, like Andre Iguodala, Tyreke Evans and Tony Allen…

…

“The Spurs made the Finals with a Western Conference finals sweep built on a similarly unusual defense. Against the Heat, the Spurs packed the paint to keep LeBron away. Against the Grizzlies, it was Zach Randolph the Spurs feared around the basket. And sure enough, one of the NBA’s best post scorers — with a rich history of playoff success against San Antonio — was mobbed when he got the ball in the paint. Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter are both much longer than Randolph, and with helpers, they made life impossible for him.

And that was essentially the series. The Spurs took the Grizzlies’ best option off the table. The easy fix would have been for Randolph to kick the ball out to waiting 3-point shooters. But that’s not how the Grizzlies are staffed….

…

“The NBA’s high priest of lineup data was the first person to point this out to me, in 2009; Wayne Winston’s theory of NBA lineups is basically if you play two or more guys who can’t shoot, the lineup is very likely to perform poorly, even if it’s loaded with good players. More recently Winston looked up lineups with four shooters, and found they were almost all excellent.

And that’s against any and all defenses….

…

“When your opponent packs the paint like the Spurs did, 3s quickly become even more important. They go from being condiments to survival food. Either you can get the defensive players scrambling far from the hoop to close out shooters or you cannot. Either you can punish opposing coaches for playing two plodding 7-footers (by making them run out to cover someone far from the hoop) or you cannot. Either you can efficiently turn possessions into points even without layups, or you cannot.

If you cannot do those things, you’re basically done.

That’s why life’s getting harder for players who don’t shoot it. That’s what hangs over this year’s free agency. The Spurs just wrote the book on shutting down lineups with players who can’t shoot. It might not matter all season long, but when you get locked into a playoff series against a determined coach like Gregg Popovich, it could matter more than anything.”

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/...

Related:

A few years ago Dwight Howard and a bunch of otherwise unremarkable 3-point shooters had one of the best offenses in recent NBA history.
The Warriors' playoff run only took off when an injury to David Lee forced them to start four 3-point shooters.
The Heat haven't lost a playoff series since they adopted a strategy of playing 3-point shooters with their superstars.
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/...
July 2 2013

Winston's work with the knicks
http://www.postingandtoasting.com/2013/2...

Interesting Quotes:

The disturbing thing about these weights is that if an NBA player shot 33 .33% (1-3) then the more shots they take the higher their PER because shooting 1 for 3 gives you a net contribution of 2(45.75)-2(39.73)>0!! Clearly this is bad because a 33% shooter is not a good shooter and with these weights the more shots a bad shooter takes, the higher his PER rating.

Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he's a stat stuffer. Troy Murphy gets great stats, but never does much for the team. -Wayne Winston 10/01/09
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/7013/wayne-winston-mark-cuban-s-stats-expert-isn-t-bashful-part-2

Gallinari ... his effective field goal percentage was like the best in the league. The guy just can shoot with his eyes closed. And he's not a bad defender. They were really making a playoff run and than he got hurt and that was it.-Wayne Winston 10/02/09

edited typos; added another link

Thanks for sharing that.

It's worth sharing. Especially since Moneyball is the best sports movie I've ever seen.

Henry Abbott all but mentioned Bargnani by name during that interview with Winston: 'Tall guys that can shoot'

Mac wrote:It's worth sharing. Especially since Moneyball is the best sports movie I've ever seen.

Henry Abbott all but mentioned Bargnani by name during that interview with Winston: 'Tall guys that can shoot'

My father was a mathematician and I have great respect for those that work with numbers for a living. There are several interesting things that Winston has done here to create combinations and line-ups which factor in to the overall performance outlook.....namely player combinations, line-ups and removal of Garbage time.

Basketball is a much more kinetic game than baseball.....meaning that the interdepandancies of other players on the floor will have a greater impact on the individual stats of a specific player on the floor. It would therefore make sense to look at how individual players function in units....rather than looking solely at individual statistics. Further - the removal of Garbage Time corresponds to stats that are not as relative to overall performance projections for a player as the other players on the floor will most likely have less intensity at the end of a lopsided game.

too bad this guy doesn't have anything to say about the knicks' transition defense and the knicks' ability to defend the post or paint. bargnani does nothing in either area in fact he probably makes the knicks worse.

dk7th wrote:too bad this guy doesn't have anything to say about the knicks' transition defense and the knicks' ability to defend the post or paint. bargnani does nothing in either area in fact he probably makes the knicks worse.

Actually he has great post defense numbers over the last 3 years.

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2...

Some of you will be aware of this, but for those of you aren’t, let me catch you up real quick. You know how Andrea Bargnani has this reputation as being the very definition of a horrible defender? It’s not entirely a fictional archetype, but it’s also not really so much in love with the truth that the two have announced the relationship on Facebook. Synergy Sports ranked Bargnani in the 88th percentile in post defense on a per-possession basis, and the 56th percentile in isolation defense last season (with a gaudy 95th percentile overall). It wasn’t all Dwane Casey’s wizardry last season (though his work with Bargnani’s defense should not be ignored, but we’ll get there. In 2011, he was 47th percentile in post and 83rd percentile in isolation. 2010? 72nd percentile in the post, 28th in isolation. Bear in mind these numbers are regardless of the number of possessions, so someone that defended in the post once successfully logs in at the top of the chart. So basically, he’s even better than these numbers indicate, relative to his position.

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-...

2013 Research Paper Competition

Presented by:6 Top 5 Proximal FG% Bottom 5 Proximal FG%

1. Larry Sanders
34.9%

2. Andrea Bargnani
35.2%

3. Kendrick Perkins
37.3%

4. Elton Brand
38.0%

5. Roy Hibbert
38.7%

48. Kevin Love
52.1%

49. Jonas Valanciunas
52.8%

50. David Lee
53.0%

51. Jordan Hill
53.9%

52. Anderson Varejao
54.2%

Table
1: The top and bottom 5 interior defenders according to proximal FG%, which is defined as the opponent’s FG% when the qualifying defender is within 5 feet of the shot attempt.

This trade was a downgrade in 3 point shooting (and probably physical health too).

However, I only believe in numbers that say Bargs will have a negative contribution.

As far as lineups are concerned, you can still use Anthony at the post because Bargnani will play off the ball (with the ability to create his own shot because of his offensive skill and size; something Novak did not have).

Another thought: can Felton-Smith-Anthony-Bargnani-Chandler replace the Felton-Kidd-Smith-Anthony-Chandler unit which was not only the knicks best lineup for point differential, but best in the entire league? http://www.82games.com/1213/1213NYK2.HTM

Yellowboy90 that's a great article you posted; the graphic showing shooting percentages says it all... keep them out of the paint. The further you are away from the basket, the more difficult the shot.

This is why the "pack-the-paint" defense works so well. Getting a 3 point shooter that fits with Anthony is a no brainer.

yellowboy90 wrote:However, I only believe in numbers that say Bargs will have a negative contribution.

Not at all true. He's awful at almost everything but I do believe your numbers that he's a good man to man defender.

Bonn1997 wrote:This trade was a downgrade in 3 point shooting (and probably physical health too).

True but that does not mean it will be a downgrade in offensive production.

http://www.postingandtoasting.com/2013/7...

Call it the Bargnani paradox: a reputed shooter performing at his highest level of offensive efficiency while shooting at his lowest level of efficiency. How did he pull it off? First, you should check his assists rate: in 2011-12 he assisted on 11.6% of his teammates' field goals while he was on the floor, a rate nearly three percent higher than his next-best season. Second, he excelled at getting points from the free-throw line - 4.9 made free throws per game.

Both of these qualities could prove extremely valuable to the Knicks next season. Last season's Knicks team didn't get many free throw opportunities as a group - they finished 21st in the NBA in free throws per field goal attempt. The 6.0 free throw attempts Bargnani averaged per 36 minutes in 2011-2012 would have ranked third on last year's Knicks squad, behind only Carmelo Anthony (7.4) and Amar'e Stoudemire (6.9). Among Knick forwards, Bargnani's 11.3 AST% would have ranked second behind Melo (14.1%).

This version of Bargnani could provide real offensive value to the Knicks second unit that suffered at times from severe bouts of "sit around and watch JR"-itis last season. Running things through a foul-drawing, pass-happy Bargnani could keep the offense from getting bogged down along the perimeter, while simultaneously opening up J.R. Smith as a spot-up shooter (where he still excels).

Maybe this is all a pipe dream; maybe Bargnani will not bounce back at all. But it helps to remember that guy was a viable offensive weapon a mere two seasons ago, even without his three-point stroke. Andrea Bargnani can help the Knicks' offense with more than just shooting; and if he somehow bring his shooting numbers in line with his early-career averages, well then that's just a bonus.

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:However, I only believe in numbers that say Bargs will have a negative contribution.

Not at all true. He's awful at almost everything but I do believe your numbers that he's a good man to man defender.

LOL, That post was not meant for you or about you. I posted that before I saw your post under mine.

yellowboy90 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:However, I only believe in numbers that say Bargs will have a negative contribution.

Not at all true. He's awful at almost everything but I do believe your numbers that he's a good man to man defender.

LOL, That post was not meant for you or about you. I posted that before I saw your post under mine.

Oh, hahaha!

yellowboy90 wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:This trade was a downgrade in 3 point shooting (and probably physical health too).

True but that does not mean it will be a downgrade in offensive production.

http://www.postingandtoasting.com/2013/7...

Call it the Bargnani paradox: a reputed shooter performing at his highest level of offensive efficiency while shooting at his lowest level of efficiency. How did he pull it off? First, you should check his assists rate: in 2011-12 he assisted on 11.6% of his teammates' field goals while he was on the floor, a rate nearly three percent higher than his next-best season. Second, he excelled at getting points from the free-throw line - 4.9 made free throws per game.

Both of these qualities could prove extremely valuable to the Knicks next season. Last season's Knicks team didn't get many free throw opportunities as a group - they finished 21st in the NBA in free throws per field goal attempt. The 6.0 free throw attempts Bargnani averaged per 36 minutes in 2011-2012 would have ranked third on last year's Knicks squad, behind only Carmelo Anthony (7.4) and Amar'e Stoudemire (6.9). Among Knick forwards, Bargnani's 11.3 AST% would have ranked second behind Melo (14.1%).

This version of Bargnani could provide real offensive value to the Knicks second unit that suffered at times from severe bouts of "sit around and watch JR"-itis last season. Running things through a foul-drawing, pass-happy Bargnani could keep the offense from getting bogged down along the perimeter, while simultaneously opening up J.R. Smith as a spot-up shooter (where he still excels).

Maybe this is all a pipe dream; maybe Bargnani will not bounce back at all. But it helps to remember that guy was a viable offensive weapon a mere two seasons ago, even without his three-point stroke. Andrea Bargnani can help the Knicks' offense with more than just shooting; and if he somehow bring his shooting numbers in line with his early-career averages, well then that's just a bonus.

Don't really know about those numbers though. Seems like cherry picking to me.

This reminds me so much of the way people were down on Prigs. I was so annoyed by SAS always saying he wasn't moved by Prigs game. SAS was using the eye test and he was wrong. When you looked at his actual impact on how his teammates played when Prigs was on the floor it told a different story. It showed that Prigs was indeed having a positive impact on the team. The win streak they had after Prigs entered the starting lineup was further evidence of his impact.

What the OP is trying to show is that adding AB can have a net positive impact on the Knicks based on his skills and how that will impact the way teams defend this team. AB can't be ignored no matter where he goes on the floor. You can't say that for every Knick player. He's a threat from inside, midrange and deep. AB's size makes him a tough match up as well. In addition to that the Knicks adding THJ also helps because he's also a versatile scorer from midrange and 3pt range. Because THJ can catch and shoot and hit pull up jumpers forces defenses to have to stay closer and that opens up the floor for the other players. Non shooters allow defenses to cheat off of them and that's what kills an offense. AB in the PnR presents another dimension, cuz he can and will take the PnP if teams try to pack the paint in an effort to stop the PnR. Teams could drop off of Tyson in an attempt to shut down the PnR, because he couldn't or wouldn't take the PnP shot.

In terms of defense, AB isn't going to be great, but if he can improve at all, he'll be a decent defender. Woody has had success with helping guys improve and we have to hope that's the case with AB. AB isn't as bad as some believe. I think he's athletic enough to improve with good coaching.

Bonn1997 wrote:This trade was a downgrade in 3 point shooting (and probably physical health too).

You are anticipating Bargs will play under 250 minutes?

CrushAlot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:This trade was a downgrade in 3 point shooting (and probably physical health too).

You are anticipating Bargs will play under 250 minutes?

I was referring to the Novak-Bargs swap

bargs coming in dropping buckets swoosh

IronWillGiroud wrote:bargs coming in dropping buckets swoosh

Good read, I believe Bargs has a chance to be a Coup, between his offensive game and post defense.