Knicks · No Smoothing..Historic salary cap increase set.. (page 1)

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/124618...

After a meeting this week failed to produce a compromise, the NBA is now preparing itself for the largest salary-cap jump in league history for the 2016-17 season.

It's a move that could have significant implications for potential 2016 free agents like Kevin Durant and LeBron James as well as teams that have positioned themselves to have cap space, most notably the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks.

The NBA announced Wednesday that the players' union formally rejected a so-called "cap-smoothing" proposal the league put forth to manage the influx of revenue that is coming with the $24 billion television deal with TNT and ESPN that begins after next season.

NBA teams using internal data are projecting the salary cap to jump to between $88-92 million per team, sources told ESPN. To compare, this season the cap is set at $63 million and next season it is projected to land at about $66 million. To put it into perspective, the largest salary-cap jump in history is $7 million in one season. What happens in 2016 could triple that leap.

Owners have been trying to avoid such a spike because it would dramatically raise salary levels for free agents that season. James, for example, could take his salary from about $22 million next season to around $30 million if he signs for the maximum salary in 2016.

National Basketball Players Association executive director Michele Roberts previously announced the players had unanimously rejected the NBA's offer, which would have artificially lowered the salary cap to prevent that big spike and phase in the increase over several years.

The NBA suggested that the difference be given to the union in a lump sum and divided evenly among all players. So instead of a few free agents in 2016 benefiting, all players would get a smaller piece of the TV rights deal increase. But Roberts believed long term it would not be a benefit to the players.

"The proposal that the league submitted ... would artificially deflate the salary cap," Roberts said over All-Star Weekend. "And that, of course, meant that players' salaries would not increase as much as they would otherwise were it not for smoothing. That pretty much was what killed it. It killed it in the eyes of the economists that made the recommendations, and it killed it in the eyes of the players."

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver and Roberts met Tuesday to talk about a compromise, their first formal negotiating session since Roberts was hired last summer, sources told ESPN.

The league, however, had little incentive to make a deal. The collective bargaining agreement that was signed in 2011 cut the players' portion of the revenue pie from 57 percent to 51 percent. The deal has functioned extremely well for the owners, who have seen operating margins and franchise values increase significantly. Now the players are prepare for the deal to function in their favor. Silver essentially admitted over All-Star Weekend this likely would be the outcome.

"I don't want to act like it's a terrible problem to have, where we're thrilled that based on the interest in the NBA we're able to command these big increases in the television market," Silver said. "And we will live with our deal."

Broadly, this development likely means two things for the short term of league business:

• There may be some free agents this summer who only accept one-year contracts so they can retest the market in 2016, when it will be awash with available cash.

• The likelihood of a lockout in 2017 when both sides can opt out of the current CBA just increased significantly if not unexpectedly.

Good news for the Knicks and not so good for Melo.
He wanted his money too fast... and may lose millions.
LeBron on other hand again outsmarted everybody... what a d-bag.
In any case Knicks will be able to get 1-2 superstar FAs and give them salaries bigger that Melo's which will stick pretty well with his reduced role.
We are dealt a good hand, hopefully new management has skills to play it for maximum return.

I really want the Knicks to go after young guys and sign them to long contracts. Maybe throw in a team option just to give yourself an out. Middleton, Harris, Joseph, Lopez, Green, Koufos, Ajinca, Ed. Davis, and others.

This is going to add an interesting dynamic. I hope it will help us. But we'll have to see. Does it mean that almost every team will be under the cap?

http://knickerblogger.net/knicks-morning...

ephus March 11, 2015 at 3:40 pm

There will be no salary cap smoothing.

For the Knicks, this means:

1. With a $66 million salary cap next season, and $32 million in committed salary, the Knicks will have $34 million to use this summer. The max bid for a 10+ veteran will be $23.1 million (unless the player is already making more than that) plus 4.5% raise/year. The max bid for a 7-9 veteran will be $19.8 million plus 4.5% raise/year. The max bid for 1-6 year player will be $16.5 million plus 4.5% raise/year. Even if the Knicks wanted to, they could not bring in two max players (except for RFAs with less than 6 years experience).

2. With a $90 million salary cap in 2016, the max bid for a 10+ veteran will be $31.5 million plus 4.5% raise/year. The max bid for a 7-9 veteran (Kevin Durant, etc.) will be $27 million plus 4.5% raise/year. The max bid for a 1-6 player will be $22.5 million plus 4.5% raise/year.

3. Just about every team will have enough cap room to offer Kevin Durant a max package during the summer of 2016.

The really interesting thing is what will Bonn and guns do with themselves when Melo's contract becomes cap friendly

Melo's deal when others will go up will provide a decent scale for what a 32 year old hopefully in his prime.
Lebron will get paid, to his credit, he has also taken less and takes the risk of shorter term deals to get it right.
Durant can pick and choose where he'll want to be but really he can always force a sign an trade. If he hangs in there, he'll control his destiny.
If he wants security, he can compromise.
Or he can be Melo and have his cake, but no rings!

this can be seen as bad news since a whole lot of teams will have ample room this year and next to resign any free agents they might have had...

FistOfOakley wrote:this can be seen as bad news since a whole lot of teams will have ample room this year and next to resign any free agents they might have had...

It also may lessen the size of contracts handed out this off-season as teams recalibrate in advance of the following season. If that is the case, the only advantage the Knicks would have in 2016 is if they did not give out multi-year contracts this off-season. That could be very smart though this franchise has never functioned that way before.

This is bad news for us because:

A) salaries this offseason will hyper inflate in anticipation
B) it'll make teams much more likely to match any offers to restricted free agents
C) if we luck out this offseason, we will be screwed next offseason because nearly every team will have cap space, and the winning teams will be more attractive.

smackeddog wrote:This is bad news for us because:

A) salaries this offseason will hyper inflate in anticipation
B) it'll make teams much more likely to match any offers to restricted free agents
C) if we luck out this offseason, we will be screwed next offseason because nearly every team will have cap space, and the winning teams will be more attractive.

That's why it is imperative that the Knicks go for their players this season even if it means overpaying because next summer the market will be wide open. They also need to show FAs that they are an attractive team that just needs a piece or two to challenge.

yellowboy90 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:This is bad news for us because:

A) salaries this offseason will hyper inflate in anticipation
B) it'll make teams much more likely to match any offers to restricted free agents
C) if we luck out this offseason, we will be screwed next offseason because nearly every team will have cap space, and the winning teams will be more attractive.

That's why it is imperative that the Knicks go for their players this season even if it means overpaying because next summer the market will be wide open. They also need to show FAs that they are an attractive team that just needs a piece or two to challenge.

I completely agree- it's going to be a tense few months, it's going to be tough and we can't afford to mess up!

fishmike wrote:The really interesting thing is what will Bonn and guns do with themselves when Melo's contract becomes cap friendly

eh we are still wasting $124mil on an injured, 30+, bonehead, low IQ, selfish, primadonna, digital, bulletproof player

gunsnewing wrote:

fishmike wrote:The really interesting thing is what will Bonn and guns do with themselves when Melo's contract becomes cap friendly

eh we are still wasting $124mil on an injured, 30+, bonehead, low IQ, selfish, primadonna, digital, bulletproof player

If only he could average 9ppg and 6rebs he could save the franchise

smackeddog wrote:

yellowboy90 wrote:

smackeddog wrote:This is bad news for us because:

A) salaries this offseason will hyper inflate in anticipation
B) it'll make teams much more likely to match any offers to restricted free agents
C) if we luck out this offseason, we will be screwed next offseason because nearly every team will have cap space, and the winning teams will be more attractive.

That's why it is imperative that the Knicks go for their players this season even if it means overpaying because next summer the market will be wide open. They also need to show FAs that they are an attractive team that just needs a piece or two to challenge.

I completely agree- it's going to be a tense few months, it's going to be tough and we can't afford to mess up!

But the question now becomes does this put the bigger name free agents on 2015 in play..Ideally they would want to re-up their deals in 2016...Does a guy like Aldrige gamble on a one year deal with the hopes of landing a mega 2016 deal??..At that rate, it doesn't matter if he stays with his current team because the length of the contract will be the same with a one year deal plus 5 year in 2016..Are there any rules to prevent that scanerio??

fishmike wrote:The really interesting thing is what will Bonn and guns do with themselves when Melo's contract becomes cap friendly

I suspect the will turn their attention to the number of shots he's taking

gunsnewing wrote:

fishmike wrote:The really interesting thing is what will Bonn and guns do with themselves when Melo's contract becomes cap friendly

eh we are still wasting $124mil on an injured, 30+, bonehead, low IQ, selfish, primadonna, digital, bulletproof player

One thing that has irked me this year- when did 30 become the new 40 on these boards?!

fishmike wrote:The really interesting thing is what will Bonn and guns do with themselves when Melo's contract becomes cap friendly

That won't happen unless the cap goes up to around 200 mil.

smackeddog wrote:

gunsnewing wrote:

fishmike wrote:The really interesting thing is what will Bonn and guns do with themselves when Melo's contract becomes cap friendly

eh we are still wasting $124mil on an injured, 30+, bonehead, low IQ, selfish, primadonna, digital, bulletproof player

One thing that has irked me this year- when did 30 become the new 40 on these boards?!

Statistically, most players peak in their mid to late 20s and have a sharp decline after 30. There are rare exceptions but the exception is a bad gamble.

fishmike wrote:

gunsnewing wrote:

fishmike wrote:The really interesting thing is what will Bonn and guns do with themselves when Melo's contract becomes cap friendly

eh we are still wasting $124mil on an injured, 30+, bonehead, low IQ, selfish, primadonna, digital, bulletproof player

If only he could average 9ppg and 6rebs he could save the franchise

9 and 6? Is that an inside joke?

TripleThreat wrote:

Solace wrote:This is going to add an interesting dynamic. I hope it will help us. But we'll have to see. Does it mean that almost every team will be under the cap?

There is going to be a lockout and a massive labor war here.

A giant leap in the salary cap is bad for the owners, but also it's bad for the fans. When someone like STAT or Eddy Curry or Kenyon Martin or Mike Finley or Gilbert Arenas or Rashard Lewis get a fat franchise killing contract, it's great for that player's bank account, his agent and his family. It's not great for the rest of the fanbase of said team.

Adam Silver isn't really making a huge secret of it, he's desiring what the NFL has, which is the ability for a team to overhaul in a 2-3 year span with built in mechanisms for more competitive balance. MLB has followed the NFL's lead by changing it's playoff structure and changing aspects of it's draft and international player signings as well as revenue sharing for those same reasons.

A giant leap in the cap will naturally defeat many of the self protective mechanisms from the last CBA. While some team might get a boon in signing LBJ ( though he's likely to stay in Cleveland) a lot of other players will be overpaid and become cap/franchise killing contracts. Owners want no part of that anymore. They don't want an AK47 making a max deal anymore.

It's also an empowerment issue. When you have a player getting massive years and massive dollars and it's guaranteed, he's often less replaceable than the head coach and GM and front office. So instead of those guys doing their jobs trying to win, part of their job works to appease a kid in his twenties who is probably not as smart as he thinks he is about team building. People called Kevin McHale stupid for many of his Minnesota moves, but lots of those moves were designed to appease Kevin Garnett. Danny Ferry built something nice in Atlanta, good for him, but he got ripped to shreds over moves in Cleveland designed to appease LBJ. Deron Williams is a giant jackoff precisely for the reason that the league structure now allows for certain players making certain money to act like jackoffs, which drives away fans.

What the league desperately needs is widespread use of non guaranteed contracts and a hard cap. Then GMs and coaches are in the drivers seat. Won't or can't produce? Here you go, get the flying fuck out of my locker room. You know the NFL is so competitive? Because barring some rare exceptions, 99 percent of the players are putting 150 percent effort at all times. Do your job or someone will take it from you.

For the Knicks, it's a double edged sword. More money helps from their poor cap management issues. However a lockout will stunt the development of their 2015 lottery pick. In said players critical sophomore year, he will be sitting at home when he should be working with his team.

The problem with a new union head and a new commish together is that both need to prove something in public. Roberts to needs to justify her position and so does Silver. So this will be a very bloody and very contested labor war here.

There will be one season with the huge cap before the players and owners can opt out of the collective bargaining agreement, I believe (the opt out is in 2017, the cap increase will happen in 2016). The league offered a deal with smoothing and the player Union rejected and now the increase is set to happen, lockout on the horizon or not. But maybe I'm wrong. This is how I understood it.