we are in the stretch run for pole position for the most important draft since ewing...
as of 3/31
team (____rec____) games back
1. knicks - (14-60) --
2. wolves - (16-58) 2
3. sixers - (18-57) 3 1/2
4. lakers - (20-53) 6 1/2
5. orlando - (22-52) 8
odds of #1 top 3
1. 25% 64.3%
2. 19.9% 55.8%
3. 15.6% 46.9%
4. 11.9% 37.8%
key games that are shaping up to be must lose:
thurs 3/19 - minnesota - L
fri 3/20 - @sixers - L
sun 4/5 - sixers
other important games
sun 3/22 - sixers @ lakers - lakers W
wed 3/25 - lakers @ wolves - lakers W
mon 3/30 - lakers @ sixers - lakers W
fri 4/10 - wolves @ lakers
we are a lock for a top 4 worst record which gives us, roughly, no worse than a 12% chance at #1 and 38% chance at top 3... finishing with the worst doubles each of those odds... 25% chance at #1 and 65% chance in the top 3... in cases of a tie, the tied teams split the ping pong balls evenly with the odd ping pong ball going to a coin flip...
minnesota looks to have the hardest schedule left but probably has the best team since they do have nba players on their roster...
it will be very close and there is a high likelihood of it coming down to the last week of the season...
Something happened to Rubio tonight. I am not watching any games, have company over, but I did check twitter. Hopefully he is fine and ready to start 'winning'.
FistOfOakley wrote:with 18 or so games to go... we are in the stretch run for pole position for the most important draft since ewing... as of 3/13
team rec games back odds of #1 top 3
1. knicks 13-51 25% 64.3%
2. wolves 14-49 1 1/2 19.9% 55.8%
3. sixers 15-50 1 1/2 15.6% 46.9%
4. lakers 17-47 3 11.9% 37.8%
5. orlando 21-45 7 8.8% 29.1%
key games that are shaping up to be must lose:
thurs 3/19 - minnesota
fri 3/20 - @sixers
sun 4/5 - sixers
other important games
sun 3/22 - sixers @ lakers
wed 3/25 - lakers @ wolves
mon 3/30 - lakers @ sixers
fri 4/10 - wolves @ lakers
we are a lock for a top 4 worst record which gives us, roughly, no worse than a 12% chance at #1 and 38% chance at top 3... finishing with the worst doubles each of those odds... 25% chance at #1 and 65% chance in the top 3... in cases of a tie, the tied teams split the ping pong balls evenly with the odd ping pong ball going to a coin flip...
minnesota looks to have the hardest schedule left but probably has the best team since they do have nba players on their roster...
it will be very close and there is a high likelihood of it coming down to the last week of the season...
Just remember to manage your expectations- although finishing with the worst record gives us the highest chance of getting the number 1 (25%), that still means there is a 75% chance that we won't get it- it's far more likely we won't get the number 1 pick. However, it does mean we'd be guaranteed to pick no worse than 4. Every time I use that ESPN draft lottery machine, we end up picking 4th- depressing!
Personally i dont care about getting number 1. As long as we stay in top 4 we will get a good player....just dont trade the pick please thats all i ask
Chill guys. #1 is not necessary. I'll be happier than a pig in sh#t if we pick 2nd and get KAT. Or 3rd and get Russel. It's all good as long as we are in the top 3
ramtour420 wrote:Chill guys. #1 is not necessary. I'll be happier than a pig in sh#t if we pick 2nd and get KAT. Or 3rd and get Russel. It's all good as long as we are in the top 3
Yep, I'd be happy with top 3- but getting the 4th or lower would annoy me
Tanking is painful. I don't know how philly fans do it.
updated standings after this disastrous win... lakers are now only 2 and a half back...
this week could determine the tank standings....
It wouldn't surprise me if we go from worst to 4th worst. Typical knick fashion.
I refuse to get my hopes up again. The pain is easier if you just assume the worst.
blkexec wrote:It wouldn't surprise me if we go from worst to 4th worst. Typical knick fashion.I refuse to get my hopes up again. The pain is easier if you just assume the worst.
Jordan Hill 2.0 here we come 
We have 15 games to go. The bottom line is this.
I think management already knows who looks good who they might want back and who may be ripe for moving on. Really I have almost no information I need from this season from the Knicks. I cannot see a scenario where we may add or change our minds on almost anyone.
I think there are some knicks who might be off elsewhere who have been given a nice chance here. Give the whole roster a chance to play now even those guys guys like Acy Wear etc... and dont overplay Gallo Alex or Bargs. There is NO value in it.
We need to lose out the last 15--as in for real TANK. and I mean TANK hard. See how Denver gets messages from above to sit 3 guys one night 3 the next. Its just strategic business for the long term benefit for the team.
We hired Phil Jackson--gave him 12mm dollars for a reason thats 12mm. While I did thing he was trying to win--really hes done a SOLID job putting us in a good position for cap space and a high draft pick. We also have 2 guards that are keepers long term--good trades that were NEVER done by our past GMs like Thomas and who looks even worse day by day Grunwald. Id give Phil a solid B at this point with a chance to move up to an A- IF he can finish the job and keep us at atleast the 1-2 position for the draft. Anything past that with the potential to move down to 6-7 in the draft after a year like this would be an unmitigated disaster FAR worse then the season. It really would be. Phil has to be stern and strict here for everyones benefit. Play the guys in rotations of 20 minutes two units and play every last guy on the roster the last 15. Play hard let each guy get burn but rotate enough to lose a little rhythm and hopefully 12 of the last 15 games. Losing is winning and draft night is where we take the HUGE benefit. If we end up in positionm 6 or less--the grade for Phil drops to D. That bad.
The Knicks are doing it right. They shipped out their best players that they could. They are playing a roster of bottom dwellers and Dleague guys looking for homes in the NBA, and a high pick isnt the only need for this season. We need players for next year. We only have one draft pick and we arent signing 8 FAs. We need to find guys who can play. If that process yields a few wins so be it. It would be tough to finish 4th after being worst all year but Ill cross that road when we get there. I understand the frustration and Jordan Hill comments but this is different.
The Curry loss was more about how we mishandled that draft, then the meaningless games we won. We should have done what other smart teams do. Make Curry a promise, kick him and his agent some cheddar and have him shut down workouts with a "bad ankle" like the Suns did with Amare. Instead we let everyone in the BB world know we love him and want to pick him. Idiots
fishmike wrote:The Knicks are doing it right. They shipped out their best players that they could. They are playing a roster of bottom dwellers and Dleague guys looking for homes in the NBA, and a high pick isnt the only need for this season. We need players for next year. We only have one draft pick and we arent signing 8 FAs. We need to find guys who can play. If that process yields a few wins so be it. It would be tough to finish 4th after being worst all year but Ill cross that road when we get there. I understand the frustration and Jordan Hill comments but this is different.The Curry loss was more about how we mishandled that draft, then the meaningless games we won. We should have done what other smart teams do. Make Curry a promise, kick him and his agent some cheddar and have him shut down workouts with a "bad ankle" like the Suns did with Amare. Instead we let everyone in the BB world know we love him and want to pick him. Idiots
Not really true - losses that year when we were going nowhere would have helped immensely. Don Nelson was smart & Golden State drafted him in spite of everything Curry & his agent tried:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/14/sports...
I realize that if we tank like Denver did and sit guys, balls may karmically bounce against us, dropping us to 4.
But I agree with Briggs - if we end up in 5,6 or 6 in this draft after this season, it is going to be incredibly hard to stay interested in this team.
We need a franchise changing talent. I am not a CBB guy, but I think history supports that it is rare to find those kinds of players in those slots.
We need a super lite ping pong ball, not more wins. Hey, I loved that these guys got the win last night. They're human & they have suffered more in losing than we have in watching them lose.
But they're getting paid and its one year (though Bargs is a career loser), and we've put up with 15 years of garbage, and the prospect is for another 5-10 years of more garbage unless we land a true game changing talent this year.
fishmike wrote:The Knicks are doing it right. They shipped out their best players that they could. They are playing a roster of bottom dwellers and Dleague guys looking for homes in the NBA, and a high pick isnt the only need for this season. We need players for next year. We only have one draft pick and we arent signing 8 FAs. We need to find guys who can play. If that process yields a few wins so be it. It would be tough to finish 4th after being worst all year but Ill cross that road when we get there. I understand the frustration and Jordan Hill comments but this is different.The Curry loss was more about how we mishandled that draft, then the meaningless games we won. We should have done what other smart teams do. Make Curry a promise, kick him and his agent some cheddar and have him shut down workouts with a "bad ankle" like the Suns did with Amare. Instead we let everyone in the BB world know we love him and want to pick him. Idiots
the whole purpose of tanking this year is to increase the odds of getting the #1 and also the top 3.. i would say the top 3 is probably more important...
making side arrangements with agents is not a good draft strategy and definitely does not work on ncaa kids who have their whole body of work on a national stage...
and i'd just like to add that i'm not generally a tanking guy... i do see the value in trying to win... generally if you have players that are under contract for awhile.. it behooves you to try to win as much as possible with that group... tanking games prevents those players from learning what it takes to win consistently...
most of the guys on this team are just not going to be here or they don't belong on a winning team and shouldn't be back.. and only a few players are even under contract... that's the tough part with winning this year with us... it does WAY more harm than any good...
blkexec wrote:fishmike wrote:The Knicks are doing it right. They shipped out their best players that they could. They are playing a roster of bottom dwellers and Dleague guys looking for homes in the NBA, and a high pick isnt the only need for this season. We need players for next year. We only have one draft pick and we arent signing 8 FAs. We need to find guys who can play. If that process yields a few wins so be it. It would be tough to finish 4th after being worst all year but Ill cross that road when we get there. I understand the frustration and Jordan Hill comments but this is different.The Curry loss was more about how we mishandled that draft, then the meaningless games we won. We should have done what other smart teams do. Make Curry a promise, kick him and his agent some cheddar and have him shut down workouts with a "bad ankle" like the Suns did with Amare. Instead we let everyone in the BB world know we love him and want to pick him. Idiots
+1
+2
Developing Galloway and Shved is like getting free late first round picks. Finding out guys like Amundson and Aldrich are keepers saves us money in FA and allows them to build a team identity.
fishmike wrote:The Knicks are doing it right. They shipped out their best players that they could. They are playing a roster of bottom dwellers and Dleague guys looking for homes in the NBA, and a high pick isnt the only need for this season. We need players for next year. We only have one draft pick and we arent signing 8 FAs. We need to find guys who can play. If that process yields a few wins so be it. It would be tough to finish 4th after being worst all year but Ill cross that road when we get there. I understand the frustration and Jordan Hill comments but this is different.The Curry loss was more about how we mishandled that draft, then the meaningless games we won. We should have done what other smart teams do. Make Curry a promise, kick him and his agent some cheddar and have him shut down workouts with a "bad ankle" like the Suns did with Amare. Instead we let everyone in the BB world know we love him and want to pick him. Idiots
Fish, anyway you look at it those meaningless wins will haunt this team, I like the idea of being guaranteed a four pick. I pray they don't screw the pouch and win just enough to once again miss out. For me there is only two players that I want out of this draft and it's OK4 and Mudiay.
