So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts
If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (there would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.
If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.
Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.
They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.
What do people make of this?
The value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. So if the Heat chose to chase a title next year they presumably could trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would still have rotational value at least.
KNICKSBIGCATS wrote:So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (there would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.
If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.
Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.
They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.
What to people make of this?
The value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. So if the Heat chose to chase a title next year they presumably could trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would still have rotational value at least.
Im still worried about the Knicks. Worst case scenario is Brags plays like he did last game the last 5 we win 4 get pick 7 and he leaves .
Playing the devil's advocate....If recent draft history is any barometer, I don't see a big difference most years between selecting 10th or 17th. You just have to take the right guy.
2014 do you want Noah Vonleh or Zach Levine or Josef Nurkic
2013 do you want Trey Burke or the Greek Freak or Denis Schoeder
2012 do you want Austin Rivers or John Henson or Tyler Zeller
BRIGGS wrote:KNICKSBIGCATS wrote:So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (there would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.
If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.
Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.
They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.
What to people make of this?
The value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. So if the Heat chose to chase a title next year they presumably could trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would still have rotational value at least.
Im still worried about the Knicks. Worst case scenario is Brags plays like he did last game the last 5 we win 4 get pick 7 and he leaves .
I think you can relax here! Bargs helps his team win games maybe once a month.
Players get paid extra cash for the playoffs.. I know someone who were close friends with a Net when JKidd was there and he said they got paid cash in duffle bags..So top 10 draft pick or a duffle bag of cash?
KNICKSBIGCATS wrote:Playing the devil's advocate....If recent draft history is any barometer, I don't see a big difference most years between selecting 10th or 17th. You just have to take the right guy.2014 do you want Noah Vonleh or Zach Levine or Josef Nurkic
2013 do you want Trey Burke or the Greek Freak or Denis Schoeder
2012 do you want Austin Rivers or John Henson or Tyler Zeller
Zach Lavine if he stayed would be number 1 in this draft. You can get guys at a significant discount to what hey may have achieved by staying and developing.
The tenth pick usually isn't high enough to give Miami the player they need to chase a title. That team healthy is probably a top 4 team in the East at best and still stinks like they do today at worst.
Moving what they did for Dragic while having to pay max money into his decline was silly, but so was locking up Bosh for 5 years at so much money. This team has about a 2-year window of second-round exits at best and then has to sit through the ugly end of Bosh, Dragic and Wade.
Miami did exactly what the Knicks need to avoid. They hurridly built a medicore team with no long-term plan to get out of bottom of the East race.
BIGCATS ...great points about the heat. theyre in a tough position. even if they make the playoffs, theyll get bounced in the 1st rd. might as well invest in that draft pick
It is simply not smart for the Heat not to tank. Wade is not getting younger; they need to accumulate as many talented players possible to remain relevant. If I were the heat, I would aim to draft Winslow or Kaminsky
holfresh wrote:Players get paid extra cash for the playoffs.. I know someone who were close friends with a Net when JKidd was there and he said they got paid cash in duffle bags..So top 10 draft pick or a duffle bag of cash?
Tanking is up to the coach and team execs to handle. Obviously the players aren't going to decide to start missing shots or giving up points.
I'd like to see us in a position to sign Dragic - or at least Dragic leaves. Whichever permutation of events helps that along, that is the one I'm rooting for!
franco12 wrote:I'd like to see us in a position to sign Dragic - or at least Dragic leaves. Whichever permutation of events helps that along, that is the one I'm rooting for!
Why would Dragic leave that situation; specifically, given there is no state tax in FL?
Knicks1969 wrote:franco12 wrote:I'd like to see us in a position to sign Dragic - or at least Dragic leaves. Whichever permutation of events helps that along, that is the one I'm rooting for!
Why would Dragic leave that situation; specifically, given there is no state tax in FL?
The extra tax for 41 days (home games) a year is only going to make a difference of maybe 3 or 400K/yr, which I'm sure Dolan wouldn't mind covering.
That said, we still don't have anything other than the ability to overpay to draw FAs, and I hope we don't overpay.
franco12 wrote:I'd like to see us in a position to sign Dragic - or at least Dragic leaves. Whichever permutation of events helps that along, that is the one I'm rooting for!
As much as I like Dragics game(with the right system), I don't want to put 5 white guys on the floor at one time ever again unless it's the reincarnation of BIRD, NASH, Dan Majerle, MULLEN and SABONIS...lol
Bonn1997 wrote:holfresh wrote:Players get paid extra cash for the playoffs.. I know someone who were close friends with a Net when JKidd was there and he said they got paid cash in duffle bags..So top 10 draft pick or a duffle bag of cash?
Tanking is up to the coach and team execs to handle. Obviously the players aren't going to decide to start missing shots or giving up points.
Coaches gets extra Ching too..But u are crazy if u think these guys will pass up the extra money..
Aren't u asking yourself why Boston is trying to make the playoffs?
BRIGGS wrote:
Im still worried about the Knicks. Worst case scenario is Brags plays like he did last game the last 5 we win 4 get pick 7 and he leaves .
Worst case scenario with Bargnani is always that he re-signs with the Knicks. He's terrible. I will dance a jig the day he signs with another team.
Knicks1969 wrote:franco12 wrote:I'd like to see us in a position to sign Dragic - or at least Dragic leaves. Whichever permutation of events helps that along, that is the one I'm rooting for!
Why would Dragic leave that situation; specifically, given there is no state tax in FL?
ever been to Mia? I mean yea.. why would anyone from Europe want to leave Mia and go to NYC???
fishmike wrote:Knicks1969 wrote:franco12 wrote:I'd like to see us in a position to sign Dragic - or at least Dragic leaves. Whichever permutation of events helps that along, that is the one I'm rooting for!
Why would Dragic leave that situation; specifically, given there is no state tax in FL?
ever been to Mia? I mean yea.. why would anyone from Europe want to leave Mia and go to NYC???
if they are liberals who like paying more taxes.
In all honesty, Miami is a sh1tty place to play. Fans there could care less about basketball. However, the NBA today and its globalness makes it a little easier to play in a small market.
