Knicks · Russell 40.9% bust potential--whatever that means. (page 1)

According to a new analytical study from ESPN, D'Angelo Russell has the highest probability of the 2015 NBA Draft of becoming a superstar while also having the highest probability of the top-25 guys of being a bust.

Russell has a 15.2 percent chance of becoming a superstar, while his bust potential is 40.9 percent, according to a formula that assigns percentages to players.

Russell had a strong freshman season at Ohio State and is capable of running an NBA offense while defending opposing wing players.

I don't have any formulas, but I've thought for a while he could be a boom or bust. Great vision and shot, but his mediocre athleticism and struggles at the rim may prevent him from becoming the star everyone expects. I like his potential though. He's 3rd on my draft board personally.

tj23 wrote:I don't have any formulas, but I've thought for a while he could be a boom or bust. Great vision and shot, but his mediocre athleticism and struggles at the rim may prevent him from becoming the star everyone expects. I like his potential though. He's 3rd on my draft board personally.

Its so true--it seems after Towns every player has a flaw. If you could combine some of these players... Thats why you will find 4-5 players in the 2nd round this year that will surpass players in the lottery.

brook lopez has mediocre athleticism and he is doing well with some nice max contracts

I am really curious to see the entire list. I can't see Russell ever as a bust. Worst case seems like Jamal Crawford type 6th man.

Knixkik wrote:I am really curious to see the entire list. I can't see Russell ever as a bust. Worst case seems like Jamal Crawford type 6th man.

no way!

the kid is a freak passer

Briggs strikes again....creating a thread that already exist.....

mreinman wrote:

Knixkik wrote:I am really curious to see the entire list. I can't see Russell ever as a bust. Worst case seems like Jamal Crawford type 6th man.

no way!

the kid is a freak passer

Exactly my point. This is his worst case.

Knixkik wrote:

mreinman wrote:

Knixkik wrote:I am really curious to see the entire list. I can't see Russell ever as a bust. Worst case seems like Jamal Crawford type 6th man.

no way!

the kid is a freak passer

Exactly my point. This is his worst case.

that would be a disaster ... worst than worst case.

BRIGGS wrote:

tj23 wrote:I don't have any formulas, but I've thought for a while he could be a boom or bust. Great vision and shot, but his mediocre athleticism and struggles at the rim may prevent him from becoming the star everyone expects. I like his potential though. He's 3rd on my draft board personally.

Its so true--it seems after Towns every player has a flaw. If you could combine some of these players... Thats why you will find 4-5 players in the 2nd round this year that will surpass players in the lottery.

Just to be argumentative, I'm not willing to say he is without flaws.

Still want to see Towns as a defender.

Don't believe he can be a PF these days with those size 20's of his. Everyone is also talking about defending the pick and roll...is he mobile enough to do this effectively?

No personal workouts, no combine info on speed and agility- all we have is a packaged video where it looks like he's hanging out with his KU buddies.

Anyone actually think he's going to be stationed in the corners shooting 3s? I've seen his post game, and it is not bad- I'd rather see some midrange shots than him taking 3s.

Players who don't want to work out with a team should at least have a single NBA workout done with all teams in attendance and where he runs through exercises decided upon by all teams. I don't care if it isn't recorded-just want teams to be there.

He had plenty of time after his season ended to get in shape and improve his skills, why shouldn't teams get a chance to see him?

BRIGGS wrote:According to a new analytical study from ESPN, D'Angelo Russell has the highest probability of the 2015 NBA Draft of becoming a superstar while also having the highest probability of the top-25 guys of being a bust.

Russell has a 15.2 percent chance of becoming a superstar, while his bust potential is 40.9 percent, according to a formula that assigns percentages to players.

Russell had a strong freshman season at Ohio State and is capable of running an NBA offense while defending opposing wing players.

Nothing to do with you, Briggs.

The analytics movement will probably make me leave a forum like this one at some point, since all you are going to need are computers to argue about players.

I'll let this clip express my feelings on this stuff. Dated, but seems to fit the situation

WaltLongmire wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:

tj23 wrote:I don't have any formulas, but I've thought for a while he could be a boom or bust. Great vision and shot, but his mediocre athleticism and struggles at the rim may prevent him from becoming the star everyone expects. I like his potential though. He's 3rd on my draft board personally.

Its so true--it seems after Towns every player has a flaw. If you could combine some of these players... Thats why you will find 4-5 players in the 2nd round this year that will surpass players in the lottery.

Just to be argumentative, I'm not willing to say he is without flaws.

Still want to see Towns as a defender.

Don't believe he can be a PF these days with those size 20's of his. Everyone is also talking about defending the pick and roll...is he mobile enough to do this effectively?

No personal workouts, no combine info on speed and agility- all we have is a packaged video where it looks like he's hanging out with his KU buddies.

Anyone actually think he's going to be stationed in the corners shooting 3s? I've seen his post game, and it is not bad- I'd rather see some midrange shots than him taking 3s.

Players who don't want to work out with a team should at least have a single NBA workout done with all teams in attendance and where he runs through exercises decided upon by all teams. I don't care if it isn't recorded-just want teams to be there.

He had plenty of time after his season ended to get in shape and improve his skills, why shouldn't teams get a chance to see him?

So you're saying Towns may have been helped a little on defense by playing next to WCS?

blkexec wrote:Briggs strikes again....creating a thread that already exist.....

It reduces the chance of this thread being a bust.

mreinman wrote:

Knixkik wrote:I am really curious to see the entire list. I can't see Russell ever as a bust. Worst case seems like Jamal Crawford type 6th man.

no way!

the kid is a freak passer

Agree, that skill will always be in demand. He's 19 and I doubt this is the best he will get in that dept. Russell also has a great handle and can shoot the rock. If he doesn't become a superstar, he still has a good shot at being elite.

crzymdups wrote:

WaltLongmire wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:

tj23 wrote:I don't have any formulas, but I've thought for a while he could be a boom or bust. Great vision and shot, but his mediocre athleticism and struggles at the rim may prevent him from becoming the star everyone expects. I like his potential though. He's 3rd on my draft board personally.

Its so true--it seems after Towns every player has a flaw. If you could combine some of these players... Thats why you will find 4-5 players in the 2nd round this year that will surpass players in the lottery.

Just to be argumentative, I'm not willing to say he is without flaws.

Still want to see Towns as a defender.

Don't believe he can be a PF these days with those size 20's of his. Everyone is also talking about defending the pick and roll...is he mobile enough to do this effectively?

No personal workouts, no combine info on speed and agility- all we have is a packaged video where it looks like he's hanging out with his KU buddies.

Anyone actually think he's going to be stationed in the corners shooting 3s? I've seen his post game, and it is not bad- I'd rather see some midrange shots than him taking 3s.

Players who don't want to work out with a team should at least have a single NBA workout done with all teams in attendance and where he runs through exercises decided upon by all teams. I don't care if it isn't recorded-just want teams to be there.

He had plenty of time after his season ended to get in shape and improve his skills, why shouldn't teams get a chance to see him?

So you're saying Towns may have been helped a little on defense by playing next to WCS?

Of course he was. They were a two headed monster, no doubt, but if you look at the bigs they had on that team it is pretty amazing. That kid Lee- terrible shooter, if I remember correctly- looked pretty good to me- probably could have done much of what Stein did, to be honest.

They had 5 good athletes over 6'10- their small forward was 6'10," and most of their f'n guards were big, too. Calipari always demanded defense from his players, I expect that is why Booker did not get as much play as he did, despited his shooting ability.

Towns has a much better base and was much better down low than Stein, who would let himself be moved around too much, but I wonder about Towns' quickness if a team is actually thinking of putting him at PF in today's game. He has big feet and giraffe legs- can't see that helping him on D if he is a PF in today's NBA. He will need a partner big at the NBA level too, especially in the beginning of his career.

Just to do a promo in before I go- the guy who looks even better if you look at the wealth of bigs on KU, is a guy named Kaminsky, who was the only guy over 6'9" on that Wisconsin team. Heroism at its best...Frank the Giant Killer.

I think it's a myth that Towns has a better base than Stein. Stein didn't know how to post up properly but he has bigger stronger hips and legs than Towns. Towns has skinny legs he just was more comfortable posting up. I predict that WCS will fix his poor technique in his back to the basket game.

nixluva wrote:I think it's a myth that Towns has a better base than Stein. Stein didn't know how to post up properly but he has bigger stronger hips and legs than Towns. Towns has skinny legs he just was more comfortable posting up. I predict that WCS will fix his poor technique in his back to the basket game.

Really responding about Towns, and not Stein, but...

Its not a myth if one has shown the ability and the other has not. To use a cliche..."The proof is in the pudding." I'm a strict empiricist, and I like to have actual evidence of certain things. Guys building on skills they have already demonstrated is one thing; really young guys adding new skills is another thing; but guys being credited for having skills they will develop in the future after never showing those skill over an extended period of time is an entirely different thing.

Stein has shown many good traits as a ball player- I can accept this- but giving him credit for improvements which he has not demonstrated in games, after playing 3 years of college ball, is asking me to throw out my common sense and better judgement. You should not draft based on faith.

Stein never showed the old B&B...base and butt in college, and I don't think he's comfortable maneuvering inside from a crouch like Towns, OK4, or Kaminsky.

Best thing I saw in the KU/Wis game was Towns and Kaminsky playing an old style base vs base inside game. Came away impressed by both, and I saw enough of Town's inside game to make me think he could be special down low.

You basically prove my usual points about Stein. Three years in college and he did not learn how to post up with all his athletic ability? He is also a tentative ball handler down low and is not great passer- other teams will be feasting on his turnovers if he tries to post up, like vultures on carrion.

Seems like he never made adaptations to his game over his 3 years, despite all the bigs he had a chance to practice against, and that's what worries me the most about him.

Simple question. Pops has a chance to draft the guy who will play with AND eventually replace Duncan. Which 1 of these 3 would Pops be LEAST LIKELY to take if he could choose from these 3: Towns, Stein, Kaminsky?