Bonn1997 wrote:I think Briggs is overestimating the value of these picks. Historically, only about 20% of guys drafted in the mid 20s go on to become solid nba starters based on 82games' analysis. We need to trade RoLo for about 5 of these late picks for it to be even. Even then, you have to realize that you're waiting a few years for the players to develop. If you have a good, 2 way 7 foot center, you're better off holding onto him and buying a couple of these picks.
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
Isn't that an old article and are you sure their formula for rating players is not flawed?
yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:I think Briggs is overestimating the value of these picks. Historically, only about 20% of guys drafted in the mid 20s go on to become solid nba starters based on 82games' analysis. We need to trade RoLo for about 5 of these late picks for it to be even. Even then, you have to realize that you're waiting a few years for the players to develop. If you have a good, 2 way 7 foot center, you're better off holding onto him and buying a couple of these picks.
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
Isn't that an old article and are you sure their formula for rating players is not flawed?
Old? Yes but I doubt the expected value of draft picks has changed significantly. Flawed? Every stat and every eyeball assessment is flawed to some extent. I haven't found (or recently searched for) other draft pick expected value ratings. I suspect this is better than just guessing how much a draft pick will produce.
Bonn1997 wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:I think Briggs is overestimating the value of these picks. Historically, only about 20% of guys drafted in the mid 20s go on to become solid nba starters based on 82games' analysis. We need to trade RoLo for about 5 of these late picks for it to be even. Even then, you have to realize that you're waiting a few years for the players to develop. If you have a good, 2 way 7 foot center, you're better off holding onto him and buying a couple of these picks.
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
Isn't that an old article and are you sure their formula for rating players is not flawed?
Old? Yes but I doubt the expected value of draft picks has changed significantly. Flawed? Every stat and every eyeball assessment is flawed to some extent. I haven't found (or recently searched for) other draft pick expected value ratings. I suspect this is better than just guessing how much a draft pick will produce.
I just did some more searching. This is also old but indicates the average 25th pick will earn 6.2 win shares in his first 4 seasons. Rolo in his past 4 seasons has 22.4 win shares.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog...You could say total win shares is confounded with minutes played but RoLo hasn't played a huge number of minutes. Either way, I think he'll kick the butts of most 25th picks in production. I'm going to take a guess that in a typical NBA draft, only 1 of the 10 guys drafted in the 20s will outproduce Rolo in win shares. Maybe another 1 or 2 come close and then 7 or 8 are below him. I'd rather just try to buy these picks.
Bonn1997 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:I think Briggs is overestimating the value of these picks. Historically, only about 20% of guys drafted in the mid 20s go on to become solid nba starters based on 82games' analysis. We need to trade RoLo for about 5 of these late picks for it to be even. Even then, you have to realize that you're waiting a few years for the players to develop. If you have a good, 2 way 7 foot center, you're better off holding onto him and buying a couple of these picks.
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
Isn't that an old article and are you sure their formula for rating players is not flawed?
Old? Yes but I doubt the expected value of draft picks has changed significantly. Flawed? Every stat and every eyeball assessment is flawed to some extent. I haven't found (or recently searched for) other draft pick expected value ratings. I suspect this is better than just guessing how much a draft pick will produce.
I just did some more searching. This is also old but indicates the average 25th pick will earn 6.2 win shares in his first 4 seasons. Rolo in his past 4 seasons has 22.4 win shares.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog...
You could say total win shares is confounded with minutes played but RoLo hasn't played a huge number of minutes. Either way, I think he'll kick the butts of most 25th picks in production. I'm going to take a guess that in a typical NBA draft, only 1 of the 10 guys drafted in the 20s will outproduce Rolo in win shares.
I do not disagree with you on RoLo being better value than the 25th pick based on his production I was just wondering about the data you were using.
Also, I wonder how much the value picks 25th or beyond has done lately? Maybe it just seems like more players have succeeded lately who were picked 25th or beyond?
yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:yellowboy90 wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:I think Briggs is overestimating the value of these picks. Historically, only about 20% of guys drafted in the mid 20s go on to become solid nba starters based on 82games' analysis. We need to trade RoLo for about 5 of these late picks for it to be even. Even then, you have to realize that you're waiting a few years for the players to develop. If you have a good, 2 way 7 foot center, you're better off holding onto him and buying a couple of these picks.
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
Isn't that an old article and are you sure their formula for rating players is not flawed?
Old? Yes but I doubt the expected value of draft picks has changed significantly. Flawed? Every stat and every eyeball assessment is flawed to some extent. I haven't found (or recently searched for) other draft pick expected value ratings. I suspect this is better than just guessing how much a draft pick will produce.
I just did some more searching. This is also old but indicates the average 25th pick will earn 6.2 win shares in his first 4 seasons. Rolo in his past 4 seasons has 22.4 win shares.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog...
You could say total win shares is confounded with minutes played but RoLo hasn't played a huge number of minutes. Either way, I think he'll kick the butts of most 25th picks in production. I'm going to take a guess that in a typical NBA draft, only 1 of the 10 guys drafted in the 20s will outproduce Rolo in win shares.
I do not disagree with you on RoLo being better value than the 25th pick based on his production I was just wondering about the data you were using.
Also, I wonder how much the value picks 25th or beyond has done lately? Maybe it just seems like more players have succeeded lately who were picked 25th or beyond?
That I don't know. You were right to ask about the data I cited. I'm guessing with the money saved from Rolo's salary, we just get another Aaron Afflalo. Other than RoLo, Phil has never added a starting caliber FA. We need to win to attract FAs. I think this trade is really bad. It would be interesting to see current production of NBA draft picks. I suspect little has changed and people just selectively focus on the one or two draft picks playing at a high level.
Paris907 wrote:Knicks concerns as of late are many including down time for Melo. Yet the most glaring issue is their not playing the D they did earlier. Losing ROLO hurts the D and no one on the roster is a replacement
The only reason I say rol o is that I don't think in the long run kp is anything more than a 5. I don't think in today's nba 2 seven footers work
Valentine and felder would make you forget about rolo after 1 game
BRIGGS wrote:Paris907 wrote:Knicks concerns as of late are many including down time for Melo. Yet the most glaring issue is their not playing the D they did earlier. Losing ROLO hurts the D and no one on the roster is a replacement
The only reason I say rol o is that I don't think in the long run kp is anything more than a 5. I don't think in today's nba 2 seven footers work
OK but then play Rolo 35 mpg next year to inflate his #s and you'll get more than some picks around 30. For half of this season, he played the worst ball of his career. Don't trade him now.
Either way, I suspect your premise is wrong. It would be interesting to see KP's #s with and without Rolo. I know earlier the rebounding figures were posted and KP was way better with Rolo on the court but that was pretty early in the season.
mreinman wrote:BRIGGS wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:BRIGGS wrote:Paris907 wrote:Knicks concerns as of late are many including down time for Melo. Yet the most glaring issue is their not playing the D they did earlier. Losing ROLO hurts the D and no one on the roster is a replacement
The only reason I say rol o is that I don't think in the long run kp is anything more than a 5. I don't think in today's nba 2 seven footers work
OK but then play Rolo 35 mpg next year to inflate his #s and you'll get more than some picks around 30. For half of this season, he played the worst ball of his career. Don't trade him now.
Either way, I suspect your premise is wrong. It would be interesting to see KP's #s with and without Rolo. I know earlier the rebounding figures were posted and KP was way better with Rolo on the court but that was pretty early in the season.
Future
k
LOL - I'm going to infer that he's saying trading now (selling low) is best for our future - somehow.
Bonn1997 wrote:mreinman wrote:BRIGGS wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:BRIGGS wrote:Paris907 wrote:Knicks concerns as of late are many including down time for Melo. Yet the most glaring issue is their not playing the D they did earlier. Losing ROLO hurts the D and no one on the roster is a replacement
The only reason I say rol o is that I don't think in the long run kp is anything more than a 5. I don't think in today's nba 2 seven footers work
OK but then play Rolo 35 mpg next year to inflate his #s and you'll get more than some picks around 30. For half of this season, he played the worst ball of his career. Don't trade him now.
Either way, I suspect your premise is wrong. It would be interesting to see KP's #s with and without Rolo. I know earlier the rebounding figures were posted and KP was way better with Rolo on the court but that was pretty early in the season.
Future
k
LOL - I'm going to infer that he's saying trading now (selling low) is best for our future - somehow.
I am gonna assume that he believes that our future is in the hands of Hasheem.
