Knicks · Grizzlies game basic stats versus advanced stats (page 1)
Basi
Starters MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Carmelo Anthony 35:31 5 15 .333 1 5 .200 9 12 .750 0 6 6 5 0 0 3 2 20
Derrick Rose 32:16 6 13 .462 0 1 .000 1 2 .500 1 3 4 3 2 1 0 2 13
Kristaps Porzingis 36:22 7 11 .636 1 4 .250 6 8 .750 0 5 5 2 0 1 0 5 21
Courtney Lee 33:37 6 11 .545 2 4 .500 2 2 1.000 0 3 3 1 1 0 0 1 16
Justin Holiday 19:24 4 7 .571 0 2 .000 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 3 8
Kyle OQuinn 18:48 3 5 .600 0 0 5 7 .714 2 4 6 2 0 0 1 4 11
Lance Thomas 18:38 3 5 .600 0 1 .000 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 1 6
Brandon Jennings 15:44 2 4 .500 2 4 .500 0 0 0 2 2 3 1 0 2 1 6
Willy Hernangomez 7:52 2 3 .667 0 0 0 2 .000 1 1 2 0 0 0 2 0 4
Joakim Noah 21:50 2 2 1.000 0 0 2 6 .333 1 9 10 7 0 1 4 6 6
Team Totals 240 40 76 .526 6 21 .286 25 39 .641 6 35 41 24 4 4 12 25 111
As to efficiency and sharing the ball, kp6 showed elite efficiency, no doubt due in part to the several flushes and finishes he had from noah primarily. But when sorting for TS%, ie efficiency, there's an unsettling fact: both melo and rose, the two players taking the most shots, are in fact at the bottom of the team for efficiency-- that is not something the knicks will be able to live with if they want to gel into a tough playoff out. a mitigating factor, however, is the degree to which both rose and melo shared the ball, as shown by their usage and assist rates. rose's was 19.6/14.4 for a ratio of 1.36:1. while not a ratio for a true point guard (would have to be closer to .5:1 or lower), he at least did not dominate the ball, being 10-12% below his career average. I believe that Rose must have a usage of 24% or less if the knicks are to win games. so his 19.2% usage was part of why they won, in spite of his paltry 46.8% TS. melo was even better: 29.9% usage is a bit high-- he did go isolation too much last night-- but his assist rate was a terrific 20.3% for a ratio of 1.47:1. if he takes 2 fewer shots-- he took several bad shots-- that ratio gets closer to 1.25:1 which is around what he did for 25 tremendous and perception-altering games last season. with the exception of rose and melo, the rest of the team, including the bench, were very efficient and also shared the ball. one last thing: brandon jennings was mentioned by breen, who alluded to the fact that jennings 3-point % is actually pretty good. he just needs to play a little more under control. the form on his shot is terrible.
Adva
Starters MP TS% eFG% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg
Brandon Jennings 15:44 .750 .750 1.000 .000 0.0 13.3 7.5 27.0 3.2 0.0 33.3 17.4 106 105
Kristaps Porzingis 36:22 .723 .682 .364 .727 0.0 14.3 8.1 8.6 0.0 2.2 0.0 18.2 149 110
Kyle OQuinn 18:48 .681 .600 .000 1.400 14.6 22.2 18.9 15.8 0.0 0.0 11.0 22.0 137 109
Courtney Lee 33:37 .673 .636 .364 .182 0.0 9.3 5.3 4.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 16.1 135 110
Joakim Noah 21:50 .647 1.000 .000 3.000 6.3 43.0 27.1 43.2 0.0 3.6 46.3 18.1 97 99
Lance Thomas 18:38 .600 .600 .200 .000 7.4 11.2 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2 125 112
Justin Holiday 19:24 .571 .571 .286 .000 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0 4.1 0.0 16.5 116 113
Willy Hernangomez 7:52 .515 .667 .000 .667 17.4 13.3 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.0 34.1 67 112
Carmelo Anthony 35:31 .493 .367 .333 .800 0.0 17.6 10.0 20.3 0.0 0.0 12.9 29.9 98 110
Derrick Rose 32:16 .468 .462 .077 .154 4.3 9.7 7.3 14.4 3.1 2.4 0.0 19.6 106 104
Team Totals 240 .596 .566 .276 .513 17.1 76.1 50.6 60.0 4.1 6.6 11.4 100.0 115.1 107.9
That said, I love what I see from KP in transition. This team with Noah at C is perfect for KP now, but he will be a monster monster in a free flowing transition offense when guarded by anyone not named Anthony Davis. So, if you can tell me those additional KP shots are created in transition offense, I agree.
Until then we will just say your wrong. Don't know if you noticed but Rose is the guard we desperately needed to penetrate and get easy baskets. And now that we have one, your advocating Hornacek limit the easy scores? Perhaps you missed the game last night in which he went on a run to the basket umtouched and opened up shots for others because of it. KP has to be a constant cutter behind Rose. Has to be a catch and shoot player within 20 feet. Was pleased that KP played great last night sticking to mostly inside. He followed shots to basket, was active on the break and stayed away from crazy 3pt shots, except for two. But he is not yet able to create his own shot. He needs to develop his post up game. He needs a guy like Rose to set him up. And if Rose is not an aggressive scorer, defenders wont come off KP. You just don't understand fundamental basketball. Bigs get set up and guards have to be a threat to drive. With time, Rose will also pass out. But only if defenses can stop his drive. Which as you saw last night, they could not do. Rose won the game last night when he took over with the Knicks only up 2 in the 4th. I know this kills you.
HofstraBBall wrote:Can you please break down every second of the first games 3rd quarter from the 9th to 10th minute? Would help to have a smaller more useless sample size.Until then we will just say your wrong. Don't know if you noticed but Rose is the guard we desperately needed to penetrate and get easy baskets. And now that we have one, your advocating Hornacek limit the easy scores? Perhaps you missed the game last night in which he went on a run to the basket umtouched and opened up shots for others because of it. KP has to be a constant cutter behind Rose. Has to be a catch and shoot player within 20 feet. Was pleased that KP played great last night sticking to mostly inside. He followed shots to basket, was active on the break and stayed away from crazy 3pt shots, except for two. But he is not yet able to create his own shot. He needs to develop his post up game. He needs a guy like Rose to set him up. And if Rose is not an aggressive scorer, defenders wont come off KP. You just don't understand fundamental basketball. Bugs get set up and guards have to be a threat to drive. With time, Rose will also pass out. But only if defenses can stop his drive. Which as you saw last night, they could not do. Rose won the game last night when he too over with the Knicks only up 2 in the 4th. I know this kills you.
Sometimes numbers can give you the wrong impression of what actually happened in a game! I know it may sound counter intuitive to some but actually watching the game it was clear how Rose impacted the game at the end. Having him late in games makes a big difference!
EwingsGlass wrote:While I applaud the virtue of the analysis, the sample size is way to small to make that conclusion. For instance, while it might be true that Rose shoots 50% from FT line for the season and only gets 2 free throws out of every 13 field goal attempts, both should be sample size mistakes. You might be better off saying that Rose should take less shots when guarded by Mike Conley.That said, I love what I see from KP in transition. This team with Noah at C is perfect for KP now, but he will be a monster monster in a free flowing transition offense when guarded by anyone not named Anthony Davis. So, if you can tell me those additional KP shots are created in transition offense, I agree.
i'm well aware that the sample size is too small, but that was not the point of my including the tables. one of the reasons of including the tables is to show how closely the numbers either follow past trends or don't. in this sense the tables should be seen against the huge sample size based on a particular player's career numbers. so, for example, my conclusion based on these comparisons is that when rose's usage is lower-- below 24% and not 30%, the team he plays on will have more success. when he takes 12-14 shots as opposed to 17-18 shots, the team will fare better. so far as who is guarding him, this has to do with his bbiq and decision-making. he shouldn't be trying to shoot over marc gasol-- he tried that once last night and was lucky to not turn the ball over on a bad no-call, but he by all means should slice his way to the basket full court if the defense has not set, which was an excellent decision by him. i love his quickness and crossover game... just so long as he ends up taking a shot over someone who is not a shot blocker, ie any decent big man like gasol, who is an excellent shot blocker. in those instances he should look to pass the ball, but that is not something he has shown great skill at.
so far as kp6, he looked great with the starters but when he played with four bench guys last night, he got shot happy and chucked a couple of bad shots. that will change i am sure. he's too smart for it not to.
HofstraBBall wrote:Can you please break down every second of the first games 3rd quarter from the 9th to 10th minute? Would help to have a smaller more useless sample size.Until then we will just say your wrong. Don't know if you noticed but Rose is the guard we desperately needed to penetrate and get easy baskets. And now that we have one, your advocating Hornacek limit the easy scores? Perhaps you missed the game last night in which he went on a run to the basket umtouched and opened up shots for others because of it. KP has to be a constant cutter behind Rose. Has to be a catch and shoot player within 20 feet. Was pleased that KP played great last night sticking to mostly inside. He followed shots to basket, was active on the break and stayed away from crazy 3pt shots, except for two. But he is not yet able to create his own shot. He needs to develop his post up game. He needs a guy like Rose to set him up. And if Rose is not an aggressive scorer, defenders wont come off KP. You just don't understand fundamental basketball. Bigs get set up and guards have to be a threat to drive. With time, Rose will also pass out. But only if defenses can stop his drive. Which as you saw last night, they could not do. Rose won the game last night when he took over with the Knicks only up 2 in the 4th. I know this kills you.
until you read the game thread you have no idea what you're saying about me or my alleged ignorance about basketball fundamentals-- you come across as having a vacuous vendetta or agenda, and you're clearly a smart person. please don't waste my time tilting at windmills or setting up straw man arguments. read the game thread and participate in the next game thread-- then we can have a dialogue. agreed?
Each game has it own match ups, different flows, players are hot or cold on different nights, players nursing injuries, opponents nursing injuries, etc. These advanced stats are useful but can't be used the way its being advanced in this thread unless you're talking about a video game. Fortunately these games are played and coached by humans.
Welpee wrote:The problem with these "advance stats" is it doesn't account for common sense and game situations/conditions. If Rose is being guarded by a Jose Calderon clone and KP is being guarded by a Kevin Garnett clone for most of the game, then guess what? Our best chance of winning is Rose taking more shots than KP.Each game has it own match ups, different flows, players are hot or cold on different nights, players nursing injuries, opponents nursing injuries, etc. These advanced stats are useful but can't be used the way its being advanced in this thread unless you're talking about a video game. Fortunately these games are played and coached by humans.
I was going to say something somewhat similar.
At the end of the day we just need our players to make the right basketball decisions and the stats will fall in line. I'm pretty sure that is basically the gist of what DK is trying to say but using stats to quantify it.
Melo needs to kick the ball out a little more when he is deep in the paint instead of looking to draw the foul. He isn't going to get the foul call and kicking out for open 3 point jumpers will eventually open up the lane for him to not have to work as hard. If they have to fear that he will potentially kick out to a 3 point shooter.
Good article on usage. I think the OP uses usage solely as a function of shots taken. Clearly including turnovers we want the usage to decrease, but for me, getting into the paint is Rose's job. Turnovers may ensure from there. He may also miss many shots. But that's where I want him. Usage or not.
newyorknewyork wrote:Well, in the past he just keeps harping on Rose shouldn't take more shots than KP. It's a lot more complex and nuanced than thinking if player A takes X number of shot and player B takes Y number of shots, we have a better chance of winning. Game situation, matchups, who's hot, etc. plays a huge role in shot distribution in each individual game.Welpee wrote:The problem with these "advance stats" is it doesn't account for common sense and game situations/conditions. If Rose is being guarded by a Jose Calderon clone and KP is being guarded by a Kevin Garnett clone for most of the game, then guess what? Our best chance of winning is Rose taking more shots than KP.Each game has it own match ups, different flows, players are hot or cold on different nights, players nursing injuries, opponents nursing injuries, etc. These advanced stats are useful but can't be used the way its being advanced in this thread unless you're talking about a video game. Fortunately these games are played and coached by humans.
I was going to say something somewhat similar.
At the end of the day we just need our players to make the right basketball decisions and the stats will fall in line. I'm pretty sure that is basically the gist of what DK is trying to say but using stats to quantify it.
Melo needs to kick the ball out a little more when he is deep in the paint instead of looking to draw the foul. He isn't going to get the foul call and kicking out for open 3 point jumpers will eventually open up the lane for him to not have to work as hard. If they have to fear that he will potentially kick out to a 3 point shooter.
Welpee wrote:newyorknewyork wrote:Well, in the past he just keeps harping on Rose shouldn't take more shots than KP. It's a lot more complex and nuanced than thinking if player A takes X number of shot and player B takes Y number of shots, we have a better chance of winning. Game situation, matchups, who's hot, etc. plays a huge role in shot distribution in each individual game.Welpee wrote:The problem with these "advance stats" is it doesn't account for common sense and game situations/conditions. If Rose is being guarded by a Jose Calderon clone and KP is being guarded by a Kevin Garnett clone for most of the game, then guess what? Our best chance of winning is Rose taking more shots than KP.Each game has it own match ups, different flows, players are hot or cold on different nights, players nursing injuries, opponents nursing injuries, etc. These advanced stats are useful but can't be used the way its being advanced in this thread unless you're talking about a video game. Fortunately these games are played and coached by humans.
I was going to say something somewhat similar.
At the end of the day we just need our players to make the right basketball decisions and the stats will fall in line. I'm pretty sure that is basically the gist of what DK is trying to say but using stats to quantify it.
Melo needs to kick the ball out a little more when he is deep in the paint instead of looking to draw the foul. He isn't going to get the foul call and kicking out for open 3 point jumpers will eventually open up the lane for him to not have to work as hard. If they have to fear that he will potentially kick out to a 3 point shooter.
I agree with you.