Knicks · We suck. Wake up - we're not one piece away (page 2)
franco12 wrote:I guess this is where we differ in philosophy. Paying for role players is always a fail in FA. I would much rather overpay for more impact guys and work to find role players on the cheap. Overpaying for role players got us locked to down a roster of guys like Eisley, Anderson, Weatherspoon and Jared Jefferies.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:If KOQ was a FA this year he would get $10mm at the very LEAST. That signing was a coup and excellent job by Phil as he's more valuable than his contract by a lot. Who are the guys you are targeting for that price range? I hear that from Bonn quite a bit, "sign these type of guys for this type of money" but the reality is its an imaginary talent pool.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:why not? This is the part that I dont get. If you have the cap space and you like the player why not?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:This makes even less sense. You have outlined Melo's failures here but now you are waiting for him to rescue the team? Or that since Noah hasnt been a good fit now future FAs dont make sense?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So the simple retort is you want to keep cap space for players you have zero zilch nada none chance in signing? I mean look at the NBA and tell me what bigtime FAs have gone and signed with bad teams that didnt already have marquee talent. If this was the NFL I would 100% agree with you. The only time cap space is an asset in the NBA is when the team is already winning and has high caliber talent on the roster... unless you are waiting for the Knicks to be the Heat part II. Could be a long waitfishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So by your logic every team that signs a high priced FA should only do so if that means they are close to contending? Sorry, but that makes zero sense. Zilch. That is just "how you feel."fishmike wrote:VCoug wrote:one has nothing to do with the other. Signing Holiday doesnt mean "OK, this is the player that leads us to a title." Only Knick fans think (and more importantly FEEL) that and they are stupid and entitled. The only question is if that player makes sense at that price tag for this team.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:who? Who says we are one player away? I mean if I have to read a daily 'we suck' thread on the Knicks fan site maybe you can clarify us on your audience?EnySpree wrote:I just want to know who is this everybody that thinks were one player away?Figure of speech. An expression about the mindset of many.
I don't want to call anyone out because it's easy to take things out of context here.
I certainly was starting to think that earlier in the season.
To me, Phil operated that way in the off season when, in my mind, he went all in, turned the roster over again and brought in win now veterans with Rose, Noah and Lee. Yes he filled in with youth, but I think that was as much due to the fact that he had no cap left to overspend on veterans.
I think the #1 problem with this franchise is the owner, Dolan.
Phil has apparently kept him at bay, but we still seem to be catering to his desire to field a winner NOW.
Anyone arguing to sign Jrue Holiday to a max deal this Summer.
franco?
I agree with VCoug. If you are signing anyone to that kind of money ($20M), and you already have unproductive veterans (compared to their money) like Noah and Lee (to a lesser extent) and Melo who kinda wants to be here, kinda doesn't - that is $75M of our $103M cap- then you are most certainly saying - yes, that is the piece we need to be markedly better.
We're on pace to win 34 games this year.
Swapping Rose out for Holiday is going to be what, a 10 game improvement? I doubt. Lets say conservatively 5 games. Now, we're sniffing the play offs. And probably missing, or getting in and getting trounced in 4 games. And our ability to improve after that is contingent on our rookies getting better and our old guys like Noah, Melo and Lee fighting off father time in a sport dominated by athletes.
We need a plan, that isn't myopically focused on moves that can be made now for immediate satisfaction.
The plan has to be 2-3 years out. Accumulate draft picks, get some top 5/10 talent in the draft, find some gems in the 2nd round, let the guys that are here stay together for 2-3 years- and if Phil wants them to play with triangles, great - maybe in year 3 they'll have an understanding of the system. Melo can leave or assume a Paul Pierce kinda role. Maybe Noah can turn into Herb Williams on the bench and mentor Porzingas.
How is sucking with cap flexibility better than getting better by adding players? Even if they carry a high cost?
Again.. you cant get past "Jru is our savior" when in fact he may simply be a nice player the Knicks are trying to add to improve the team. You sound like a grumpy parent grounding your kids. "Knicks cant spend ANY money until this room is CLEANED!" (Even if it makes sense.)
If the Knicks are still losing should we give KP that max contract extension? Or does that also make zero sense since again we are not one player away... It doesnt matter where the players come from. If they are talented they will cost money.
You guys are turning FA into some emotional measuring stick for the team, when all it is is another way to add talent and pieces.
To me, cap space is an asset. Given where we are as a franchise, I'd rather hold on to it for use in the future, and in the near term, spread it out over 2-3 players rather than spend it on one player.
There has to be balance to the roster - I don't think you can spend $75M or about 75% of our cap on 4 players- not when three of them are on the wrong side of 30- and especially not when we're not winning games. We can lose just as easily with Jennings at $8-10M and a draft pick and Ron Baker at the PG spot.
I don't think there is a rule that says only winning teams should spend max type money on players - but we already have 2 guys that fit that description (Melo & Noah) and we're not winning.
Keep cap space open this summer. Keep flexibility.
Chris Paul has a player option in 2017/18. If we max out Holiday, we have no real chance at him. And I'm not saying we do have a shot - but I'd rather keep my options open.
I don't think it's a simple retort.
Do we have zero chance at Paul? Probably - but what if Melo finally comes through? What if we put it together next year, and KP and Willy take the next step- much more attractive destination.
Maxing someone out this summer means we've tied our hands for the following summer- unless Melo opts out.
And I think I'd have a very different perspective if Noah hasn't been such a disappointment. If Noah were hurt and showed like he might be worth his money next year, I'd have a very different approach to our cap.
We should be looking for FAs that accomplish a few things, starting with raising the play of our young players.
To me this was a learning year, and what we learned is that Melo is Melo and that DadMelo was a flash in the pants. He's still a ball holding ISO scorer and a jump shooter and not much else. He's got plenty of value around the league but not to team that is rebuilding around guys that play the same position. So #1 is to decide if we are keeping him or pushing him out. If you keep him there is some need to balance the roster and have enough guys that can win. That means spending on FAs to make this group better.
If you move Melo than you decide if you want to add pieces, or just run the youth out there and if they lose a ton of games its another lottery pick. Thats actually what most teams do as they are acquiring enough youth worth building around.
Holding out hope for Melo to fix this? Thats not his job, but would explain why so many people around here dog him.
Listen, if we can move Melo, that changes everything. I just don't see him leaving or us being able to move him.
I'm not holding out hope for Melo to save the franchise, but if there was, I'd like to have the flexibility to entertain Paul as a signing.
And my point with Noah isn't that he didn't work out, I'll never sign another FA - it's that given what our cap looks like with Noah, Lee & Melo, we can't add another max type deal and have 75% of our cap locked into just 4 players.
Think it through.. Melo goes nowhere. Knicks keep Lee. Rose walks. Knicks have $25mm in cap space. You just let it sit instead of trying to go out and get guys? The cap has changed... Melo's got 2 years left. He will be gone before we have to resign Willy and KP.
I mean once CP3 resigns with LAC whats your play? Whats your offseason plan? Sorry to needle you man, but I just dont get "we have spent, so now we shouldnt" when you may have a chance to add a nice piece to your team moving forward.
George Hill is really good but always hurt. He could be added, but costly. Jeff Teague is really good also. Patty Mills could be a good fit. We know what we are getting from Rose... all those guys are going to cost a ton of money. Whats your play? Be OK with stinking and drafting or are you willing to spend enough to get one of these guys in or back to help the backcourt?
I'd like to resign Jennings at the right money. Then maybe one or two players like a KOQ where they are 3-4M each - guys that can man up on defense - especially on the perimeter to help our 3 pt defense.
I don't want to over pay and have a guy that is impossible to move.
So yes - if we stink next year - that is fine as long as I am developing whoever we draft, KP, Willy et al.
If we're going with this triangle or whatever system we're trying to run, it takes time for guys to get comfortable, buy in.
Incremental improvement.
I'd love a top 5 pick this year, and a top 10 next year - then you are better able to sign a max player because you've build a solid foundation.
We currently have the 12th highest pay roll, but the results do not match our record.
I think we should target a mid $80M for next years roster, and when we start getting performance, then open it up.
Otherwise, how is Phil different than Isiah- with the exception of not trading our first round picks?
I have no problem with looking to add high caliber players over the next couple years via the draft.
How is Phil different from Isiah? Phil's bad moves hurt you for maybe a year, and have been short term at worst. Isiah's bad moves set the franchise back a decade by trading draft picks that could have yielded franchise caliber talent. The fact that Phil has the young base of players he has with 1 first rounder in 3 years is impressive. He's done a good job.
I agree. KOQ was an amazing signing. I also thought Robin Lopez was a great deal and bad to swap for Rose/Noah.
Who are we going to be able to get? I'm not nearly educated enough to hazard any kind of guesses. But, if a solid role player is going to cost $10m, I'd rather spend $10m given our record and present circumstances than $20M on Holiday.
Also role players are going for more than $10mm these days. Save the money for guys who move the needle, even if its still below .500
Holiday is just one example... lets see what the squad looks like.
Franco I get it... your point is lets curb spending until it makes sense to spend. On the surface there is plenty of logic there. That being said its not always that easy, and one follows another. Sometimes you have to overpay to get guys in... all I am saying is we shouldn't squander opportunity because it gets in the way of a philosophy, especially if that hasn't served us in the past.
What I like about Holiday is he could really help balance us, especially if we draft a PG. Let him back up Holiday or be 6th man his first couple of years, rather than throwing him to the wolves and letting him develop bad habits. We will see what Phil does (assuming he's not replaced by Isiah 
)
fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:I guess this is where we differ in philosophy. Paying for role players is always a fail in FA. I would much rather overpay for more impact guys and work to find role players on the cheap. Overpaying for role players got us locked to down a roster of guys like Eisley, Anderson, Weatherspoon and Jared Jefferies.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:If KOQ was a FA this year he would get $10mm at the very LEAST. That signing was a coup and excellent job by Phil as he's more valuable than his contract by a lot. Who are the guys you are targeting for that price range? I hear that from Bonn quite a bit, "sign these type of guys for this type of money" but the reality is its an imaginary talent pool.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:why not? This is the part that I dont get. If you have the cap space and you like the player why not?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:This makes even less sense. You have outlined Melo's failures here but now you are waiting for him to rescue the team? Or that since Noah hasnt been a good fit now future FAs dont make sense?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So the simple retort is you want to keep cap space for players you have zero zilch nada none chance in signing? I mean look at the NBA and tell me what bigtime FAs have gone and signed with bad teams that didnt already have marquee talent. If this was the NFL I would 100% agree with you. The only time cap space is an asset in the NBA is when the team is already winning and has high caliber talent on the roster... unless you are waiting for the Knicks to be the Heat part II. Could be a long waitfishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So by your logic every team that signs a high priced FA should only do so if that means they are close to contending? Sorry, but that makes zero sense. Zilch. That is just "how you feel."fishmike wrote:VCoug wrote:one has nothing to do with the other. Signing Holiday doesnt mean "OK, this is the player that leads us to a title." Only Knick fans think (and more importantly FEEL) that and they are stupid and entitled. The only question is if that player makes sense at that price tag for this team.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:who? Who says we are one player away? I mean if I have to read a daily 'we suck' thread on the Knicks fan site maybe you can clarify us on your audience?EnySpree wrote:I just want to know who is this everybody that thinks were one player away?Figure of speech. An expression about the mindset of many.
I don't want to call anyone out because it's easy to take things out of context here.
I certainly was starting to think that earlier in the season.
To me, Phil operated that way in the off season when, in my mind, he went all in, turned the roster over again and brought in win now veterans with Rose, Noah and Lee. Yes he filled in with youth, but I think that was as much due to the fact that he had no cap left to overspend on veterans.
I think the #1 problem with this franchise is the owner, Dolan.
Phil has apparently kept him at bay, but we still seem to be catering to his desire to field a winner NOW.
Anyone arguing to sign Jrue Holiday to a max deal this Summer.
franco?
I agree with VCoug. If you are signing anyone to that kind of money ($20M), and you already have unproductive veterans (compared to their money) like Noah and Lee (to a lesser extent) and Melo who kinda wants to be here, kinda doesn't - that is $75M of our $103M cap- then you are most certainly saying - yes, that is the piece we need to be markedly better.
We're on pace to win 34 games this year.
Swapping Rose out for Holiday is going to be what, a 10 game improvement? I doubt. Lets say conservatively 5 games. Now, we're sniffing the play offs. And probably missing, or getting in and getting trounced in 4 games. And our ability to improve after that is contingent on our rookies getting better and our old guys like Noah, Melo and Lee fighting off father time in a sport dominated by athletes.
We need a plan, that isn't myopically focused on moves that can be made now for immediate satisfaction.
The plan has to be 2-3 years out. Accumulate draft picks, get some top 5/10 talent in the draft, find some gems in the 2nd round, let the guys that are here stay together for 2-3 years- and if Phil wants them to play with triangles, great - maybe in year 3 they'll have an understanding of the system. Melo can leave or assume a Paul Pierce kinda role. Maybe Noah can turn into Herb Williams on the bench and mentor Porzingas.
How is sucking with cap flexibility better than getting better by adding players? Even if they carry a high cost?
Again.. you cant get past "Jru is our savior" when in fact he may simply be a nice player the Knicks are trying to add to improve the team. You sound like a grumpy parent grounding your kids. "Knicks cant spend ANY money until this room is CLEANED!" (Even if it makes sense.)
If the Knicks are still losing should we give KP that max contract extension? Or does that also make zero sense since again we are not one player away... It doesnt matter where the players come from. If they are talented they will cost money.
You guys are turning FA into some emotional measuring stick for the team, when all it is is another way to add talent and pieces.
To me, cap space is an asset. Given where we are as a franchise, I'd rather hold on to it for use in the future, and in the near term, spread it out over 2-3 players rather than spend it on one player.
There has to be balance to the roster - I don't think you can spend $75M or about 75% of our cap on 4 players- not when three of them are on the wrong side of 30- and especially not when we're not winning games. We can lose just as easily with Jennings at $8-10M and a draft pick and Ron Baker at the PG spot.
I don't think there is a rule that says only winning teams should spend max type money on players - but we already have 2 guys that fit that description (Melo & Noah) and we're not winning.
Keep cap space open this summer. Keep flexibility.
Chris Paul has a player option in 2017/18. If we max out Holiday, we have no real chance at him. And I'm not saying we do have a shot - but I'd rather keep my options open.
I don't think it's a simple retort.
Do we have zero chance at Paul? Probably - but what if Melo finally comes through? What if we put it together next year, and KP and Willy take the next step- much more attractive destination.
Maxing someone out this summer means we've tied our hands for the following summer- unless Melo opts out.
And I think I'd have a very different perspective if Noah hasn't been such a disappointment. If Noah were hurt and showed like he might be worth his money next year, I'd have a very different approach to our cap.
We should be looking for FAs that accomplish a few things, starting with raising the play of our young players.
To me this was a learning year, and what we learned is that Melo is Melo and that DadMelo was a flash in the pants. He's still a ball holding ISO scorer and a jump shooter and not much else. He's got plenty of value around the league but not to team that is rebuilding around guys that play the same position. So #1 is to decide if we are keeping him or pushing him out. If you keep him there is some need to balance the roster and have enough guys that can win. That means spending on FAs to make this group better.
If you move Melo than you decide if you want to add pieces, or just run the youth out there and if they lose a ton of games its another lottery pick. Thats actually what most teams do as they are acquiring enough youth worth building around.
Holding out hope for Melo to fix this? Thats not his job, but would explain why so many people around here dog him.
Listen, if we can move Melo, that changes everything. I just don't see him leaving or us being able to move him.
I'm not holding out hope for Melo to save the franchise, but if there was, I'd like to have the flexibility to entertain Paul as a signing.
And my point with Noah isn't that he didn't work out, I'll never sign another FA - it's that given what our cap looks like with Noah, Lee & Melo, we can't add another max type deal and have 75% of our cap locked into just 4 players.
Think it through.. Melo goes nowhere. Knicks keep Lee. Rose walks. Knicks have $25mm in cap space. You just let it sit instead of trying to go out and get guys? The cap has changed... Melo's got 2 years left. He will be gone before we have to resign Willy and KP.
I mean once CP3 resigns with LAC whats your play? Whats your offseason plan? Sorry to needle you man, but I just dont get "we have spent, so now we shouldnt" when you may have a chance to add a nice piece to your team moving forward.
George Hill is really good but always hurt. He could be added, but costly. Jeff Teague is really good also. Patty Mills could be a good fit. We know what we are getting from Rose... all those guys are going to cost a ton of money. Whats your play? Be OK with stinking and drafting or are you willing to spend enough to get one of these guys in or back to help the backcourt?
I'd like to resign Jennings at the right money. Then maybe one or two players like a KOQ where they are 3-4M each - guys that can man up on defense - especially on the perimeter to help our 3 pt defense.
I don't want to over pay and have a guy that is impossible to move.
So yes - if we stink next year - that is fine as long as I am developing whoever we draft, KP, Willy et al.
If we're going with this triangle or whatever system we're trying to run, it takes time for guys to get comfortable, buy in.
Incremental improvement.
I'd love a top 5 pick this year, and a top 10 next year - then you are better able to sign a max player because you've build a solid foundation.
We currently have the 12th highest pay roll, but the results do not match our record.
I think we should target a mid $80M for next years roster, and when we start getting performance, then open it up.
Otherwise, how is Phil different than Isiah- with the exception of not trading our first round picks?
I have no problem with looking to add high caliber players over the next couple years via the draft.
How is Phil different from Isiah? Phil's bad moves hurt you for maybe a year, and have been short term at worst. Isiah's bad moves set the franchise back a decade by trading draft picks that could have yielded franchise caliber talent. The fact that Phil has the young base of players he has with 1 first rounder in 3 years is impressive. He's done a good job.
I agree. KOQ was an amazing signing. I also thought Robin Lopez was a great deal and bad to swap for Rose/Noah.
Who are we going to be able to get? I'm not nearly educated enough to hazard any kind of guesses. But, if a solid role player is going to cost $10m, I'd rather spend $10m given our record and present circumstances than $20M on Holiday.Also role players are going for more than $10mm these days. Save the money for guys who move the needle, even if its still below .500
Holiday is just one example... lets see what the squad looks like.
Franco I get it... your point is lets curb spending until it makes sense to spend. On the surface there is plenty of logic there. That being said its not always that easy, and one follows another. Sometimes you have to overpay to get guys in... all I am saying is we shouldn't squander opportunity because it gets in the way of a philosophy, especially if that hasn't served us in the past.
What I like about Holiday is he could really help balance us, especially if we draft a PG. Let him back up Holiday or be 6th man his first couple of years, rather than throwing him to the wolves and letting him develop bad habits. We will see what Phil does (assuming he's not replaced by Isiah
The problem is the "impact guys" you have in mind aren't impact guys. Our high priced players are not even positively impacting the game. We're doing better when Noah, Rose, Melo, and Lee are off the court. Big name doesn't equal impact. There are always bargain players available in free agency. There will be this offseason. It's impossible to know in advance who they'll be because we don't know how much other GMs will offer players, though. If we insist on having players on large contracts, I'd rather take back other teams' bad contracts as part of trades where we get picks or young players as compensation than just give out our own bad contracts, though.
The "shortcuts" where you pay an unimpressive player big bucks don't help. They just compound the problem. It's what the team's been doing for 15 years now (except that Phil is doing better with drafting).
Bonn1997 wrote:fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:I guess this is where we differ in philosophy. Paying for role players is always a fail in FA. I would much rather overpay for more impact guys and work to find role players on the cheap. Overpaying for role players got us locked to down a roster of guys like Eisley, Anderson, Weatherspoon and Jared Jefferies.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:If KOQ was a FA this year he would get $10mm at the very LEAST. That signing was a coup and excellent job by Phil as he's more valuable than his contract by a lot. Who are the guys you are targeting for that price range? I hear that from Bonn quite a bit, "sign these type of guys for this type of money" but the reality is its an imaginary talent pool.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:why not? This is the part that I dont get. If you have the cap space and you like the player why not?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:This makes even less sense. You have outlined Melo's failures here but now you are waiting for him to rescue the team? Or that since Noah hasnt been a good fit now future FAs dont make sense?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So the simple retort is you want to keep cap space for players you have zero zilch nada none chance in signing? I mean look at the NBA and tell me what bigtime FAs have gone and signed with bad teams that didnt already have marquee talent. If this was the NFL I would 100% agree with you. The only time cap space is an asset in the NBA is when the team is already winning and has high caliber talent on the roster... unless you are waiting for the Knicks to be the Heat part II. Could be a long waitfishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So by your logic every team that signs a high priced FA should only do so if that means they are close to contending? Sorry, but that makes zero sense. Zilch. That is just "how you feel."fishmike wrote:VCoug wrote:one has nothing to do with the other. Signing Holiday doesnt mean "OK, this is the player that leads us to a title." Only Knick fans think (and more importantly FEEL) that and they are stupid and entitled. The only question is if that player makes sense at that price tag for this team.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:who? Who says we are one player away? I mean if I have to read a daily 'we suck' thread on the Knicks fan site maybe you can clarify us on your audience?EnySpree wrote:I just want to know who is this everybody that thinks were one player away?Figure of speech. An expression about the mindset of many.
I don't want to call anyone out because it's easy to take things out of context here.
I certainly was starting to think that earlier in the season.
To me, Phil operated that way in the off season when, in my mind, he went all in, turned the roster over again and brought in win now veterans with Rose, Noah and Lee. Yes he filled in with youth, but I think that was as much due to the fact that he had no cap left to overspend on veterans.
I think the #1 problem with this franchise is the owner, Dolan.
Phil has apparently kept him at bay, but we still seem to be catering to his desire to field a winner NOW.
Anyone arguing to sign Jrue Holiday to a max deal this Summer.
franco?
I agree with VCoug. If you are signing anyone to that kind of money ($20M), and you already have unproductive veterans (compared to their money) like Noah and Lee (to a lesser extent) and Melo who kinda wants to be here, kinda doesn't - that is $75M of our $103M cap- then you are most certainly saying - yes, that is the piece we need to be markedly better.
We're on pace to win 34 games this year.
Swapping Rose out for Holiday is going to be what, a 10 game improvement? I doubt. Lets say conservatively 5 games. Now, we're sniffing the play offs. And probably missing, or getting in and getting trounced in 4 games. And our ability to improve after that is contingent on our rookies getting better and our old guys like Noah, Melo and Lee fighting off father time in a sport dominated by athletes.
We need a plan, that isn't myopically focused on moves that can be made now for immediate satisfaction.
The plan has to be 2-3 years out. Accumulate draft picks, get some top 5/10 talent in the draft, find some gems in the 2nd round, let the guys that are here stay together for 2-3 years- and if Phil wants them to play with triangles, great - maybe in year 3 they'll have an understanding of the system. Melo can leave or assume a Paul Pierce kinda role. Maybe Noah can turn into Herb Williams on the bench and mentor Porzingas.
How is sucking with cap flexibility better than getting better by adding players? Even if they carry a high cost?
Again.. you cant get past "Jru is our savior" when in fact he may simply be a nice player the Knicks are trying to add to improve the team. You sound like a grumpy parent grounding your kids. "Knicks cant spend ANY money until this room is CLEANED!" (Even if it makes sense.)
If the Knicks are still losing should we give KP that max contract extension? Or does that also make zero sense since again we are not one player away... It doesnt matter where the players come from. If they are talented they will cost money.
You guys are turning FA into some emotional measuring stick for the team, when all it is is another way to add talent and pieces.
To me, cap space is an asset. Given where we are as a franchise, I'd rather hold on to it for use in the future, and in the near term, spread it out over 2-3 players rather than spend it on one player.
There has to be balance to the roster - I don't think you can spend $75M or about 75% of our cap on 4 players- not when three of them are on the wrong side of 30- and especially not when we're not winning games. We can lose just as easily with Jennings at $8-10M and a draft pick and Ron Baker at the PG spot.
I don't think there is a rule that says only winning teams should spend max type money on players - but we already have 2 guys that fit that description (Melo & Noah) and we're not winning.
Keep cap space open this summer. Keep flexibility.
Chris Paul has a player option in 2017/18. If we max out Holiday, we have no real chance at him. And I'm not saying we do have a shot - but I'd rather keep my options open.
I don't think it's a simple retort.
Do we have zero chance at Paul? Probably - but what if Melo finally comes through? What if we put it together next year, and KP and Willy take the next step- much more attractive destination.
Maxing someone out this summer means we've tied our hands for the following summer- unless Melo opts out.
And I think I'd have a very different perspective if Noah hasn't been such a disappointment. If Noah were hurt and showed like he might be worth his money next year, I'd have a very different approach to our cap.
We should be looking for FAs that accomplish a few things, starting with raising the play of our young players.
To me this was a learning year, and what we learned is that Melo is Melo and that DadMelo was a flash in the pants. He's still a ball holding ISO scorer and a jump shooter and not much else. He's got plenty of value around the league but not to team that is rebuilding around guys that play the same position. So #1 is to decide if we are keeping him or pushing him out. If you keep him there is some need to balance the roster and have enough guys that can win. That means spending on FAs to make this group better.
If you move Melo than you decide if you want to add pieces, or just run the youth out there and if they lose a ton of games its another lottery pick. Thats actually what most teams do as they are acquiring enough youth worth building around.
Holding out hope for Melo to fix this? Thats not his job, but would explain why so many people around here dog him.
Listen, if we can move Melo, that changes everything. I just don't see him leaving or us being able to move him.
I'm not holding out hope for Melo to save the franchise, but if there was, I'd like to have the flexibility to entertain Paul as a signing.
And my point with Noah isn't that he didn't work out, I'll never sign another FA - it's that given what our cap looks like with Noah, Lee & Melo, we can't add another max type deal and have 75% of our cap locked into just 4 players.
Think it through.. Melo goes nowhere. Knicks keep Lee. Rose walks. Knicks have $25mm in cap space. You just let it sit instead of trying to go out and get guys? The cap has changed... Melo's got 2 years left. He will be gone before we have to resign Willy and KP.
I mean once CP3 resigns with LAC whats your play? Whats your offseason plan? Sorry to needle you man, but I just dont get "we have spent, so now we shouldnt" when you may have a chance to add a nice piece to your team moving forward.
George Hill is really good but always hurt. He could be added, but costly. Jeff Teague is really good also. Patty Mills could be a good fit. We know what we are getting from Rose... all those guys are going to cost a ton of money. Whats your play? Be OK with stinking and drafting or are you willing to spend enough to get one of these guys in or back to help the backcourt?
I'd like to resign Jennings at the right money. Then maybe one or two players like a KOQ where they are 3-4M each - guys that can man up on defense - especially on the perimeter to help our 3 pt defense.
I don't want to over pay and have a guy that is impossible to move.
So yes - if we stink next year - that is fine as long as I am developing whoever we draft, KP, Willy et al.
If we're going with this triangle or whatever system we're trying to run, it takes time for guys to get comfortable, buy in.
Incremental improvement.
I'd love a top 5 pick this year, and a top 10 next year - then you are better able to sign a max player because you've build a solid foundation.
We currently have the 12th highest pay roll, but the results do not match our record.
I think we should target a mid $80M for next years roster, and when we start getting performance, then open it up.
Otherwise, how is Phil different than Isiah- with the exception of not trading our first round picks?
I have no problem with looking to add high caliber players over the next couple years via the draft.
How is Phil different from Isiah? Phil's bad moves hurt you for maybe a year, and have been short term at worst. Isiah's bad moves set the franchise back a decade by trading draft picks that could have yielded franchise caliber talent. The fact that Phil has the young base of players he has with 1 first rounder in 3 years is impressive. He's done a good job.
I agree. KOQ was an amazing signing. I also thought Robin Lopez was a great deal and bad to swap for Rose/Noah.
Who are we going to be able to get? I'm not nearly educated enough to hazard any kind of guesses. But, if a solid role player is going to cost $10m, I'd rather spend $10m given our record and present circumstances than $20M on Holiday.Also role players are going for more than $10mm these days. Save the money for guys who move the needle, even if its still below .500
Holiday is just one example... lets see what the squad looks like.
Franco I get it... your point is lets curb spending until it makes sense to spend. On the surface there is plenty of logic there. That being said its not always that easy, and one follows another. Sometimes you have to overpay to get guys in... all I am saying is we shouldn't squander opportunity because it gets in the way of a philosophy, especially if that hasn't served us in the past.
What I like about Holiday is he could really help balance us, especially if we draft a PG. Let him back up Holiday or be 6th man his first couple of years, rather than throwing him to the wolves and letting him develop bad habits. We will see what Phil does (assuming he's not replaced by Isiah
The problem is the "impact guys" you have in mind aren't impact guys. Our high priced players are not even positively impacting the game. We're doing better when Noah, Rose, Melo, and Lee are off the court. Big name doesn't equal impact. There are always bargain players available in free agency. There will be this offseason. It's impossible to know in advance who they'll be because we don't know how much other GMs will offer players, though. If we insist on having players on large contracts, I'd rather take back other teams' bad contracts as part of trades where we get picks or young players as compensation than just give out our own bad contracts, though.
The "shortcuts" where you pay an unimpressive player big bucks don't help. They just compound the problem. It's what the team's been doing for 15 years now (except that Phil is doing better with drafting).
I completely agree with this. The thing I'd like to add is that the game is different than the beginning of this 15 year stretch of horror and today younger players are expected to contribute immediately. Maybe 10 to 15 years ago teams felt like they had develop their young players in practice and they had to earn their way to PT. Guys are expected to play immediately at all levels. I bring that up because there is even less reason to overpay an older player
Bonn1997 wrote:its not impossible at all. Briggs harped on Seth Curry. The FA list is there for everyone to read. What you want to do is nothing, then sit back and analyze based on what happened what would have been the best moves. Life doesnt work that way. If you never ask a girl to dance you are never going to get a date. Just because some chick ended up crying last year after getting dumped and some loser scooped her up doesnt mean that is the right way to go about finding a lady.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:I guess this is where we differ in philosophy. Paying for role players is always a fail in FA. I would much rather overpay for more impact guys and work to find role players on the cheap. Overpaying for role players got us locked to down a roster of guys like Eisley, Anderson, Weatherspoon and Jared Jefferies.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:If KOQ was a FA this year he would get $10mm at the very LEAST. That signing was a coup and excellent job by Phil as he's more valuable than his contract by a lot. Who are the guys you are targeting for that price range? I hear that from Bonn quite a bit, "sign these type of guys for this type of money" but the reality is its an imaginary talent pool.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:why not? This is the part that I dont get. If you have the cap space and you like the player why not?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:This makes even less sense. You have outlined Melo's failures here but now you are waiting for him to rescue the team? Or that since Noah hasnt been a good fit now future FAs dont make sense?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So the simple retort is you want to keep cap space for players you have zero zilch nada none chance in signing? I mean look at the NBA and tell me what bigtime FAs have gone and signed with bad teams that didnt already have marquee talent. If this was the NFL I would 100% agree with you. The only time cap space is an asset in the NBA is when the team is already winning and has high caliber talent on the roster... unless you are waiting for the Knicks to be the Heat part II. Could be a long waitfishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So by your logic every team that signs a high priced FA should only do so if that means they are close to contending? Sorry, but that makes zero sense. Zilch. That is just "how you feel."fishmike wrote:VCoug wrote:one has nothing to do with the other. Signing Holiday doesnt mean "OK, this is the player that leads us to a title." Only Knick fans think (and more importantly FEEL) that and they are stupid and entitled. The only question is if that player makes sense at that price tag for this team.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:who? Who says we are one player away? I mean if I have to read a daily 'we suck' thread on the Knicks fan site maybe you can clarify us on your audience?EnySpree wrote:I just want to know who is this everybody that thinks were one player away?Figure of speech. An expression about the mindset of many.
I don't want to call anyone out because it's easy to take things out of context here.
I certainly was starting to think that earlier in the season.
To me, Phil operated that way in the off season when, in my mind, he went all in, turned the roster over again and brought in win now veterans with Rose, Noah and Lee. Yes he filled in with youth, but I think that was as much due to the fact that he had no cap left to overspend on veterans.
I think the #1 problem with this franchise is the owner, Dolan.
Phil has apparently kept him at bay, but we still seem to be catering to his desire to field a winner NOW.
Anyone arguing to sign Jrue Holiday to a max deal this Summer.
franco?
I agree with VCoug. If you are signing anyone to that kind of money ($20M), and you already have unproductive veterans (compared to their money) like Noah and Lee (to a lesser extent) and Melo who kinda wants to be here, kinda doesn't - that is $75M of our $103M cap- then you are most certainly saying - yes, that is the piece we need to be markedly better.
We're on pace to win 34 games this year.
Swapping Rose out for Holiday is going to be what, a 10 game improvement? I doubt. Lets say conservatively 5 games. Now, we're sniffing the play offs. And probably missing, or getting in and getting trounced in 4 games. And our ability to improve after that is contingent on our rookies getting better and our old guys like Noah, Melo and Lee fighting off father time in a sport dominated by athletes.
We need a plan, that isn't myopically focused on moves that can be made now for immediate satisfaction.
The plan has to be 2-3 years out. Accumulate draft picks, get some top 5/10 talent in the draft, find some gems in the 2nd round, let the guys that are here stay together for 2-3 years- and if Phil wants them to play with triangles, great - maybe in year 3 they'll have an understanding of the system. Melo can leave or assume a Paul Pierce kinda role. Maybe Noah can turn into Herb Williams on the bench and mentor Porzingas.
How is sucking with cap flexibility better than getting better by adding players? Even if they carry a high cost?
Again.. you cant get past "Jru is our savior" when in fact he may simply be a nice player the Knicks are trying to add to improve the team. You sound like a grumpy parent grounding your kids. "Knicks cant spend ANY money until this room is CLEANED!" (Even if it makes sense.)
If the Knicks are still losing should we give KP that max contract extension? Or does that also make zero sense since again we are not one player away... It doesnt matter where the players come from. If they are talented they will cost money.
You guys are turning FA into some emotional measuring stick for the team, when all it is is another way to add talent and pieces.
To me, cap space is an asset. Given where we are as a franchise, I'd rather hold on to it for use in the future, and in the near term, spread it out over 2-3 players rather than spend it on one player.
There has to be balance to the roster - I don't think you can spend $75M or about 75% of our cap on 4 players- not when three of them are on the wrong side of 30- and especially not when we're not winning games. We can lose just as easily with Jennings at $8-10M and a draft pick and Ron Baker at the PG spot.
I don't think there is a rule that says only winning teams should spend max type money on players - but we already have 2 guys that fit that description (Melo & Noah) and we're not winning.
Keep cap space open this summer. Keep flexibility.
Chris Paul has a player option in 2017/18. If we max out Holiday, we have no real chance at him. And I'm not saying we do have a shot - but I'd rather keep my options open.
I don't think it's a simple retort.
Do we have zero chance at Paul? Probably - but what if Melo finally comes through? What if we put it together next year, and KP and Willy take the next step- much more attractive destination.
Maxing someone out this summer means we've tied our hands for the following summer- unless Melo opts out.
And I think I'd have a very different perspective if Noah hasn't been such a disappointment. If Noah were hurt and showed like he might be worth his money next year, I'd have a very different approach to our cap.
We should be looking for FAs that accomplish a few things, starting with raising the play of our young players.
To me this was a learning year, and what we learned is that Melo is Melo and that DadMelo was a flash in the pants. He's still a ball holding ISO scorer and a jump shooter and not much else. He's got plenty of value around the league but not to team that is rebuilding around guys that play the same position. So #1 is to decide if we are keeping him or pushing him out. If you keep him there is some need to balance the roster and have enough guys that can win. That means spending on FAs to make this group better.
If you move Melo than you decide if you want to add pieces, or just run the youth out there and if they lose a ton of games its another lottery pick. Thats actually what most teams do as they are acquiring enough youth worth building around.
Holding out hope for Melo to fix this? Thats not his job, but would explain why so many people around here dog him.
Listen, if we can move Melo, that changes everything. I just don't see him leaving or us being able to move him.
I'm not holding out hope for Melo to save the franchise, but if there was, I'd like to have the flexibility to entertain Paul as a signing.
And my point with Noah isn't that he didn't work out, I'll never sign another FA - it's that given what our cap looks like with Noah, Lee & Melo, we can't add another max type deal and have 75% of our cap locked into just 4 players.
Think it through.. Melo goes nowhere. Knicks keep Lee. Rose walks. Knicks have $25mm in cap space. You just let it sit instead of trying to go out and get guys? The cap has changed... Melo's got 2 years left. He will be gone before we have to resign Willy and KP.
I mean once CP3 resigns with LAC whats your play? Whats your offseason plan? Sorry to needle you man, but I just dont get "we have spent, so now we shouldnt" when you may have a chance to add a nice piece to your team moving forward.
George Hill is really good but always hurt. He could be added, but costly. Jeff Teague is really good also. Patty Mills could be a good fit. We know what we are getting from Rose... all those guys are going to cost a ton of money. Whats your play? Be OK with stinking and drafting or are you willing to spend enough to get one of these guys in or back to help the backcourt?
I'd like to resign Jennings at the right money. Then maybe one or two players like a KOQ where they are 3-4M each - guys that can man up on defense - especially on the perimeter to help our 3 pt defense.
I don't want to over pay and have a guy that is impossible to move.
So yes - if we stink next year - that is fine as long as I am developing whoever we draft, KP, Willy et al.
If we're going with this triangle or whatever system we're trying to run, it takes time for guys to get comfortable, buy in.
Incremental improvement.
I'd love a top 5 pick this year, and a top 10 next year - then you are better able to sign a max player because you've build a solid foundation.
We currently have the 12th highest pay roll, but the results do not match our record.
I think we should target a mid $80M for next years roster, and when we start getting performance, then open it up.
Otherwise, how is Phil different than Isiah- with the exception of not trading our first round picks?
I have no problem with looking to add high caliber players over the next couple years via the draft.
How is Phil different from Isiah? Phil's bad moves hurt you for maybe a year, and have been short term at worst. Isiah's bad moves set the franchise back a decade by trading draft picks that could have yielded franchise caliber talent. The fact that Phil has the young base of players he has with 1 first rounder in 3 years is impressive. He's done a good job.
I agree. KOQ was an amazing signing. I also thought Robin Lopez was a great deal and bad to swap for Rose/Noah.
Who are we going to be able to get? I'm not nearly educated enough to hazard any kind of guesses. But, if a solid role player is going to cost $10m, I'd rather spend $10m given our record and present circumstances than $20M on Holiday.Also role players are going for more than $10mm these days. Save the money for guys who move the needle, even if its still below .500
Holiday is just one example... lets see what the squad looks like.
Franco I get it... your point is lets curb spending until it makes sense to spend. On the surface there is plenty of logic there. That being said its not always that easy, and one follows another. Sometimes you have to overpay to get guys in... all I am saying is we shouldn't squander opportunity because it gets in the way of a philosophy, especially if that hasn't served us in the past.
What I like about Holiday is he could really help balance us, especially if we draft a PG. Let him back up Holiday or be 6th man his first couple of years, rather than throwing him to the wolves and letting him develop bad habits. We will see what Phil does (assuming he's not replaced by Isiah
The problem is the "impact guys" you have in mind aren't impact guys. Our high priced players are not even positively impacting the game. We're doing better when Noah, Rose, Melo, and Lee are off the court. Big name doesn't equal impact. There are always bargain players available in free agency. There will be this offseason. It's impossible to know in advance who they'll be because we don't know how much other GMs will offer players, though. If we insist on having players on large contracts, I'd rather take back other teams' bad contracts as part of trades where we get picks or young players as compensation than just give out our own bad contracts, though.
The "shortcuts" where you pay an unimpressive player big bucks don't help. They just compound the problem. It's what the team's been doing for 15 years now (except that Phil is doing better with drafting).
I mean you can say you would rather do nothing than spend or overspend, but again, in this market you are the GM that literally did nothing while all these players were available being signed.
Most would say Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson have bad contracts. If they were on the Knicks and we had our record they would be killed. How's Houston doing?
The only risk free investment ensures you very little gains.
SupremeCommander wrote:Jru Holiday is 26. Is giving him a big contract "overpaying for an older player?"Bonn1997 wrote:fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:I guess this is where we differ in philosophy. Paying for role players is always a fail in FA. I would much rather overpay for more impact guys and work to find role players on the cheap. Overpaying for role players got us locked to down a roster of guys like Eisley, Anderson, Weatherspoon and Jared Jefferies.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:If KOQ was a FA this year he would get $10mm at the very LEAST. That signing was a coup and excellent job by Phil as he's more valuable than his contract by a lot. Who are the guys you are targeting for that price range? I hear that from Bonn quite a bit, "sign these type of guys for this type of money" but the reality is its an imaginary talent pool.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:why not? This is the part that I dont get. If you have the cap space and you like the player why not?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:This makes even less sense. You have outlined Melo's failures here but now you are waiting for him to rescue the team? Or that since Noah hasnt been a good fit now future FAs dont make sense?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So the simple retort is you want to keep cap space for players you have zero zilch nada none chance in signing? I mean look at the NBA and tell me what bigtime FAs have gone and signed with bad teams that didnt already have marquee talent. If this was the NFL I would 100% agree with you. The only time cap space is an asset in the NBA is when the team is already winning and has high caliber talent on the roster... unless you are waiting for the Knicks to be the Heat part II. Could be a long waitfishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So by your logic every team that signs a high priced FA should only do so if that means they are close to contending? Sorry, but that makes zero sense. Zilch. That is just "how you feel."fishmike wrote:VCoug wrote:one has nothing to do with the other. Signing Holiday doesnt mean "OK, this is the player that leads us to a title." Only Knick fans think (and more importantly FEEL) that and they are stupid and entitled. The only question is if that player makes sense at that price tag for this team.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:who? Who says we are one player away? I mean if I have to read a daily 'we suck' thread on the Knicks fan site maybe you can clarify us on your audience?EnySpree wrote:I just want to know who is this everybody that thinks were one player away?Figure of speech. An expression about the mindset of many.
I don't want to call anyone out because it's easy to take things out of context here.
I certainly was starting to think that earlier in the season.
To me, Phil operated that way in the off season when, in my mind, he went all in, turned the roster over again and brought in win now veterans with Rose, Noah and Lee. Yes he filled in with youth, but I think that was as much due to the fact that he had no cap left to overspend on veterans.
I think the #1 problem with this franchise is the owner, Dolan.
Phil has apparently kept him at bay, but we still seem to be catering to his desire to field a winner NOW.
Anyone arguing to sign Jrue Holiday to a max deal this Summer.
franco?
I agree with VCoug. If you are signing anyone to that kind of money ($20M), and you already have unproductive veterans (compared to their money) like Noah and Lee (to a lesser extent) and Melo who kinda wants to be here, kinda doesn't - that is $75M of our $103M cap- then you are most certainly saying - yes, that is the piece we need to be markedly better.
We're on pace to win 34 games this year.
Swapping Rose out for Holiday is going to be what, a 10 game improvement? I doubt. Lets say conservatively 5 games. Now, we're sniffing the play offs. And probably missing, or getting in and getting trounced in 4 games. And our ability to improve after that is contingent on our rookies getting better and our old guys like Noah, Melo and Lee fighting off father time in a sport dominated by athletes.
We need a plan, that isn't myopically focused on moves that can be made now for immediate satisfaction.
The plan has to be 2-3 years out. Accumulate draft picks, get some top 5/10 talent in the draft, find some gems in the 2nd round, let the guys that are here stay together for 2-3 years- and if Phil wants them to play with triangles, great - maybe in year 3 they'll have an understanding of the system. Melo can leave or assume a Paul Pierce kinda role. Maybe Noah can turn into Herb Williams on the bench and mentor Porzingas.
How is sucking with cap flexibility better than getting better by adding players? Even if they carry a high cost?
Again.. you cant get past "Jru is our savior" when in fact he may simply be a nice player the Knicks are trying to add to improve the team. You sound like a grumpy parent grounding your kids. "Knicks cant spend ANY money until this room is CLEANED!" (Even if it makes sense.)
If the Knicks are still losing should we give KP that max contract extension? Or does that also make zero sense since again we are not one player away... It doesnt matter where the players come from. If they are talented they will cost money.
You guys are turning FA into some emotional measuring stick for the team, when all it is is another way to add talent and pieces.
To me, cap space is an asset. Given where we are as a franchise, I'd rather hold on to it for use in the future, and in the near term, spread it out over 2-3 players rather than spend it on one player.
There has to be balance to the roster - I don't think you can spend $75M or about 75% of our cap on 4 players- not when three of them are on the wrong side of 30- and especially not when we're not winning games. We can lose just as easily with Jennings at $8-10M and a draft pick and Ron Baker at the PG spot.
I don't think there is a rule that says only winning teams should spend max type money on players - but we already have 2 guys that fit that description (Melo & Noah) and we're not winning.
Keep cap space open this summer. Keep flexibility.
Chris Paul has a player option in 2017/18. If we max out Holiday, we have no real chance at him. And I'm not saying we do have a shot - but I'd rather keep my options open.
I don't think it's a simple retort.
Do we have zero chance at Paul? Probably - but what if Melo finally comes through? What if we put it together next year, and KP and Willy take the next step- much more attractive destination.
Maxing someone out this summer means we've tied our hands for the following summer- unless Melo opts out.
And I think I'd have a very different perspective if Noah hasn't been such a disappointment. If Noah were hurt and showed like he might be worth his money next year, I'd have a very different approach to our cap.
We should be looking for FAs that accomplish a few things, starting with raising the play of our young players.
To me this was a learning year, and what we learned is that Melo is Melo and that DadMelo was a flash in the pants. He's still a ball holding ISO scorer and a jump shooter and not much else. He's got plenty of value around the league but not to team that is rebuilding around guys that play the same position. So #1 is to decide if we are keeping him or pushing him out. If you keep him there is some need to balance the roster and have enough guys that can win. That means spending on FAs to make this group better.
If you move Melo than you decide if you want to add pieces, or just run the youth out there and if they lose a ton of games its another lottery pick. Thats actually what most teams do as they are acquiring enough youth worth building around.
Holding out hope for Melo to fix this? Thats not his job, but would explain why so many people around here dog him.
Listen, if we can move Melo, that changes everything. I just don't see him leaving or us being able to move him.
I'm not holding out hope for Melo to save the franchise, but if there was, I'd like to have the flexibility to entertain Paul as a signing.
And my point with Noah isn't that he didn't work out, I'll never sign another FA - it's that given what our cap looks like with Noah, Lee & Melo, we can't add another max type deal and have 75% of our cap locked into just 4 players.
Think it through.. Melo goes nowhere. Knicks keep Lee. Rose walks. Knicks have $25mm in cap space. You just let it sit instead of trying to go out and get guys? The cap has changed... Melo's got 2 years left. He will be gone before we have to resign Willy and KP.
I mean once CP3 resigns with LAC whats your play? Whats your offseason plan? Sorry to needle you man, but I just dont get "we have spent, so now we shouldnt" when you may have a chance to add a nice piece to your team moving forward.
George Hill is really good but always hurt. He could be added, but costly. Jeff Teague is really good also. Patty Mills could be a good fit. We know what we are getting from Rose... all those guys are going to cost a ton of money. Whats your play? Be OK with stinking and drafting or are you willing to spend enough to get one of these guys in or back to help the backcourt?
I'd like to resign Jennings at the right money. Then maybe one or two players like a KOQ where they are 3-4M each - guys that can man up on defense - especially on the perimeter to help our 3 pt defense.
I don't want to over pay and have a guy that is impossible to move.
So yes - if we stink next year - that is fine as long as I am developing whoever we draft, KP, Willy et al.
If we're going with this triangle or whatever system we're trying to run, it takes time for guys to get comfortable, buy in.
Incremental improvement.
I'd love a top 5 pick this year, and a top 10 next year - then you are better able to sign a max player because you've build a solid foundation.
We currently have the 12th highest pay roll, but the results do not match our record.
I think we should target a mid $80M for next years roster, and when we start getting performance, then open it up.
Otherwise, how is Phil different than Isiah- with the exception of not trading our first round picks?
I have no problem with looking to add high caliber players over the next couple years via the draft.
How is Phil different from Isiah? Phil's bad moves hurt you for maybe a year, and have been short term at worst. Isiah's bad moves set the franchise back a decade by trading draft picks that could have yielded franchise caliber talent. The fact that Phil has the young base of players he has with 1 first rounder in 3 years is impressive. He's done a good job.
I agree. KOQ was an amazing signing. I also thought Robin Lopez was a great deal and bad to swap for Rose/Noah.
Who are we going to be able to get? I'm not nearly educated enough to hazard any kind of guesses. But, if a solid role player is going to cost $10m, I'd rather spend $10m given our record and present circumstances than $20M on Holiday.Also role players are going for more than $10mm these days. Save the money for guys who move the needle, even if its still below .500
Holiday is just one example... lets see what the squad looks like.
Franco I get it... your point is lets curb spending until it makes sense to spend. On the surface there is plenty of logic there. That being said its not always that easy, and one follows another. Sometimes you have to overpay to get guys in... all I am saying is we shouldn't squander opportunity because it gets in the way of a philosophy, especially if that hasn't served us in the past.
What I like about Holiday is he could really help balance us, especially if we draft a PG. Let him back up Holiday or be 6th man his first couple of years, rather than throwing him to the wolves and letting him develop bad habits. We will see what Phil does (assuming he's not replaced by Isiah
The problem is the "impact guys" you have in mind aren't impact guys. Our high priced players are not even positively impacting the game. We're doing better when Noah, Rose, Melo, and Lee are off the court. Big name doesn't equal impact. There are always bargain players available in free agency. There will be this offseason. It's impossible to know in advance who they'll be because we don't know how much other GMs will offer players, though. If we insist on having players on large contracts, I'd rather take back other teams' bad contracts as part of trades where we get picks or young players as compensation than just give out our own bad contracts, though.
The "shortcuts" where you pay an unimpressive player big bucks don't help. They just compound the problem. It's what the team's been doing for 15 years now (except that Phil is doing better with drafting).I completely agree with this. The thing I'd like to add is that the game is different than the beginning of this 15 year stretch of horror and today younger players are expected to contribute immediately. Maybe 10 to 15 years ago teams felt like they had develop their young players in practice and they had to earn their way to PT. Guys are expected to play immediately at all levels. I bring that up because there is even less reason to overpay an older player
fishmike wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:its not impossible at all. Briggs harped on Seth Curry. The FA list is there for everyone to read. What you want to do is nothing, then sit back and analyze based on what happened what would have been the best moves. Life doesnt work that way. If you never ask a girl to dance you are never going to get a date. Just because some chick ended up crying last year after getting dumped and some loser scooped her up doesnt mean that is the right way to go about finding a lady.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:I guess this is where we differ in philosophy. Paying for role players is always a fail in FA. I would much rather overpay for more impact guys and work to find role players on the cheap. Overpaying for role players got us locked to down a roster of guys like Eisley, Anderson, Weatherspoon and Jared Jefferies.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:If KOQ was a FA this year he would get $10mm at the very LEAST. That signing was a coup and excellent job by Phil as he's more valuable than his contract by a lot. Who are the guys you are targeting for that price range? I hear that from Bonn quite a bit, "sign these type of guys for this type of money" but the reality is its an imaginary talent pool.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:why not? This is the part that I dont get. If you have the cap space and you like the player why not?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:This makes even less sense. You have outlined Melo's failures here but now you are waiting for him to rescue the team? Or that since Noah hasnt been a good fit now future FAs dont make sense?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So the simple retort is you want to keep cap space for players you have zero zilch nada none chance in signing? I mean look at the NBA and tell me what bigtime FAs have gone and signed with bad teams that didnt already have marquee talent. If this was the NFL I would 100% agree with you. The only time cap space is an asset in the NBA is when the team is already winning and has high caliber talent on the roster... unless you are waiting for the Knicks to be the Heat part II. Could be a long waitfishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So by your logic every team that signs a high priced FA should only do so if that means they are close to contending? Sorry, but that makes zero sense. Zilch. That is just "how you feel."fishmike wrote:VCoug wrote:one has nothing to do with the other. Signing Holiday doesnt mean "OK, this is the player that leads us to a title." Only Knick fans think (and more importantly FEEL) that and they are stupid and entitled. The only question is if that player makes sense at that price tag for this team.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:who? Who says we are one player away? I mean if I have to read a daily 'we suck' thread on the Knicks fan site maybe you can clarify us on your audience?EnySpree wrote:I just want to know who is this everybody that thinks were one player away?Figure of speech. An expression about the mindset of many.
I don't want to call anyone out because it's easy to take things out of context here.
I certainly was starting to think that earlier in the season.
To me, Phil operated that way in the off season when, in my mind, he went all in, turned the roster over again and brought in win now veterans with Rose, Noah and Lee. Yes he filled in with youth, but I think that was as much due to the fact that he had no cap left to overspend on veterans.
I think the #1 problem with this franchise is the owner, Dolan.
Phil has apparently kept him at bay, but we still seem to be catering to his desire to field a winner NOW.
Anyone arguing to sign Jrue Holiday to a max deal this Summer.
franco?
I agree with VCoug. If you are signing anyone to that kind of money ($20M), and you already have unproductive veterans (compared to their money) like Noah and Lee (to a lesser extent) and Melo who kinda wants to be here, kinda doesn't - that is $75M of our $103M cap- then you are most certainly saying - yes, that is the piece we need to be markedly better.
We're on pace to win 34 games this year.
Swapping Rose out for Holiday is going to be what, a 10 game improvement? I doubt. Lets say conservatively 5 games. Now, we're sniffing the play offs. And probably missing, or getting in and getting trounced in 4 games. And our ability to improve after that is contingent on our rookies getting better and our old guys like Noah, Melo and Lee fighting off father time in a sport dominated by athletes.
We need a plan, that isn't myopically focused on moves that can be made now for immediate satisfaction.
The plan has to be 2-3 years out. Accumulate draft picks, get some top 5/10 talent in the draft, find some gems in the 2nd round, let the guys that are here stay together for 2-3 years- and if Phil wants them to play with triangles, great - maybe in year 3 they'll have an understanding of the system. Melo can leave or assume a Paul Pierce kinda role. Maybe Noah can turn into Herb Williams on the bench and mentor Porzingas.
How is sucking with cap flexibility better than getting better by adding players? Even if they carry a high cost?
Again.. you cant get past "Jru is our savior" when in fact he may simply be a nice player the Knicks are trying to add to improve the team. You sound like a grumpy parent grounding your kids. "Knicks cant spend ANY money until this room is CLEANED!" (Even if it makes sense.)
If the Knicks are still losing should we give KP that max contract extension? Or does that also make zero sense since again we are not one player away... It doesnt matter where the players come from. If they are talented they will cost money.
You guys are turning FA into some emotional measuring stick for the team, when all it is is another way to add talent and pieces.
To me, cap space is an asset. Given where we are as a franchise, I'd rather hold on to it for use in the future, and in the near term, spread it out over 2-3 players rather than spend it on one player.
There has to be balance to the roster - I don't think you can spend $75M or about 75% of our cap on 4 players- not when three of them are on the wrong side of 30- and especially not when we're not winning games. We can lose just as easily with Jennings at $8-10M and a draft pick and Ron Baker at the PG spot.
I don't think there is a rule that says only winning teams should spend max type money on players - but we already have 2 guys that fit that description (Melo & Noah) and we're not winning.
Keep cap space open this summer. Keep flexibility.
Chris Paul has a player option in 2017/18. If we max out Holiday, we have no real chance at him. And I'm not saying we do have a shot - but I'd rather keep my options open.
I don't think it's a simple retort.
Do we have zero chance at Paul? Probably - but what if Melo finally comes through? What if we put it together next year, and KP and Willy take the next step- much more attractive destination.
Maxing someone out this summer means we've tied our hands for the following summer- unless Melo opts out.
And I think I'd have a very different perspective if Noah hasn't been such a disappointment. If Noah were hurt and showed like he might be worth his money next year, I'd have a very different approach to our cap.
We should be looking for FAs that accomplish a few things, starting with raising the play of our young players.
To me this was a learning year, and what we learned is that Melo is Melo and that DadMelo was a flash in the pants. He's still a ball holding ISO scorer and a jump shooter and not much else. He's got plenty of value around the league but not to team that is rebuilding around guys that play the same position. So #1 is to decide if we are keeping him or pushing him out. If you keep him there is some need to balance the roster and have enough guys that can win. That means spending on FAs to make this group better.
If you move Melo than you decide if you want to add pieces, or just run the youth out there and if they lose a ton of games its another lottery pick. Thats actually what most teams do as they are acquiring enough youth worth building around.
Holding out hope for Melo to fix this? Thats not his job, but would explain why so many people around here dog him.
Listen, if we can move Melo, that changes everything. I just don't see him leaving or us being able to move him.
I'm not holding out hope for Melo to save the franchise, but if there was, I'd like to have the flexibility to entertain Paul as a signing.
And my point with Noah isn't that he didn't work out, I'll never sign another FA - it's that given what our cap looks like with Noah, Lee & Melo, we can't add another max type deal and have 75% of our cap locked into just 4 players.
Think it through.. Melo goes nowhere. Knicks keep Lee. Rose walks. Knicks have $25mm in cap space. You just let it sit instead of trying to go out and get guys? The cap has changed... Melo's got 2 years left. He will be gone before we have to resign Willy and KP.
I mean once CP3 resigns with LAC whats your play? Whats your offseason plan? Sorry to needle you man, but I just dont get "we have spent, so now we shouldnt" when you may have a chance to add a nice piece to your team moving forward.
George Hill is really good but always hurt. He could be added, but costly. Jeff Teague is really good also. Patty Mills could be a good fit. We know what we are getting from Rose... all those guys are going to cost a ton of money. Whats your play? Be OK with stinking and drafting or are you willing to spend enough to get one of these guys in or back to help the backcourt?
I'd like to resign Jennings at the right money. Then maybe one or two players like a KOQ where they are 3-4M each - guys that can man up on defense - especially on the perimeter to help our 3 pt defense.
I don't want to over pay and have a guy that is impossible to move.
So yes - if we stink next year - that is fine as long as I am developing whoever we draft, KP, Willy et al.
If we're going with this triangle or whatever system we're trying to run, it takes time for guys to get comfortable, buy in.
Incremental improvement.
I'd love a top 5 pick this year, and a top 10 next year - then you are better able to sign a max player because you've build a solid foundation.
We currently have the 12th highest pay roll, but the results do not match our record.
I think we should target a mid $80M for next years roster, and when we start getting performance, then open it up.
Otherwise, how is Phil different than Isiah- with the exception of not trading our first round picks?
I have no problem with looking to add high caliber players over the next couple years via the draft.
How is Phil different from Isiah? Phil's bad moves hurt you for maybe a year, and have been short term at worst. Isiah's bad moves set the franchise back a decade by trading draft picks that could have yielded franchise caliber talent. The fact that Phil has the young base of players he has with 1 first rounder in 3 years is impressive. He's done a good job.
I agree. KOQ was an amazing signing. I also thought Robin Lopez was a great deal and bad to swap for Rose/Noah.
Who are we going to be able to get? I'm not nearly educated enough to hazard any kind of guesses. But, if a solid role player is going to cost $10m, I'd rather spend $10m given our record and present circumstances than $20M on Holiday.Also role players are going for more than $10mm these days. Save the money for guys who move the needle, even if its still below .500
Holiday is just one example... lets see what the squad looks like.
Franco I get it... your point is lets curb spending until it makes sense to spend. On the surface there is plenty of logic there. That being said its not always that easy, and one follows another. Sometimes you have to overpay to get guys in... all I am saying is we shouldn't squander opportunity because it gets in the way of a philosophy, especially if that hasn't served us in the past.
What I like about Holiday is he could really help balance us, especially if we draft a PG. Let him back up Holiday or be 6th man his first couple of years, rather than throwing him to the wolves and letting him develop bad habits. We will see what Phil does (assuming he's not replaced by Isiah
The problem is the "impact guys" you have in mind aren't impact guys. Our high priced players are not even positively impacting the game. We're doing better when Noah, Rose, Melo, and Lee are off the court. Big name doesn't equal impact. There are always bargain players available in free agency. There will be this offseason. It's impossible to know in advance who they'll be because we don't know how much other GMs will offer players, though. If we insist on having players on large contracts, I'd rather take back other teams' bad contracts as part of trades where we get picks or young players as compensation than just give out our own bad contracts, though.
The "shortcuts" where you pay an unimpressive player big bucks don't help. They just compound the problem. It's what the team's been doing for 15 years now (except that Phil is doing better with drafting).I mean you can say you would rather do nothing than spend or overspend, but again, in this market you are the GM that literally did nothing while all these players were available being signed.
Most would say Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson have bad contracts. If they were on the Knicks and we had our record they would be killed. How's Houston doing?
The only risk free investment ensures you very little gains.
There's no list saying in the future how much each GM will offer each player. That's why it's impossible to know now how much it will take to get different FAs. No one said anything about sitting back though. Starting on day 1 of free agency, we need to make offers to players *based on what both the eyeball test and the metrics indicate they're worth*. Every year, I list a few FAs that I think we can probably get as bargains but I don't do this for a living. The most important first step would be hiring people from the top metrics departments (GS, SAS, Toronto, etc.) to work for us.
Bonn1997 wrote:right... so who are the guys you target? Easy to pick those teams. Would you have given Aldridge the max? Would you have given Carrol $15mm a year?fishmike wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:its not impossible at all. Briggs harped on Seth Curry. The FA list is there for everyone to read. What you want to do is nothing, then sit back and analyze based on what happened what would have been the best moves. Life doesnt work that way. If you never ask a girl to dance you are never going to get a date. Just because some chick ended up crying last year after getting dumped and some loser scooped her up doesnt mean that is the right way to go about finding a lady.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:I guess this is where we differ in philosophy. Paying for role players is always a fail in FA. I would much rather overpay for more impact guys and work to find role players on the cheap. Overpaying for role players got us locked to down a roster of guys like Eisley, Anderson, Weatherspoon and Jared Jefferies.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:If KOQ was a FA this year he would get $10mm at the very LEAST. That signing was a coup and excellent job by Phil as he's more valuable than his contract by a lot. Who are the guys you are targeting for that price range? I hear that from Bonn quite a bit, "sign these type of guys for this type of money" but the reality is its an imaginary talent pool.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:why not? This is the part that I dont get. If you have the cap space and you like the player why not?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:This makes even less sense. You have outlined Melo's failures here but now you are waiting for him to rescue the team? Or that since Noah hasnt been a good fit now future FAs dont make sense?fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So the simple retort is you want to keep cap space for players you have zero zilch nada none chance in signing? I mean look at the NBA and tell me what bigtime FAs have gone and signed with bad teams that didnt already have marquee talent. If this was the NFL I would 100% agree with you. The only time cap space is an asset in the NBA is when the team is already winning and has high caliber talent on the roster... unless you are waiting for the Knicks to be the Heat part II. Could be a long waitfishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:So by your logic every team that signs a high priced FA should only do so if that means they are close to contending? Sorry, but that makes zero sense. Zilch. That is just "how you feel."fishmike wrote:VCoug wrote:one has nothing to do with the other. Signing Holiday doesnt mean "OK, this is the player that leads us to a title." Only Knick fans think (and more importantly FEEL) that and they are stupid and entitled. The only question is if that player makes sense at that price tag for this team.fishmike wrote:franco12 wrote:who? Who says we are one player away? I mean if I have to read a daily 'we suck' thread on the Knicks fan site maybe you can clarify us on your audience?EnySpree wrote:I just want to know who is this everybody that thinks were one player away?Figure of speech. An expression about the mindset of many.
I don't want to call anyone out because it's easy to take things out of context here.
I certainly was starting to think that earlier in the season.
To me, Phil operated that way in the off season when, in my mind, he went all in, turned the roster over again and brought in win now veterans with Rose, Noah and Lee. Yes he filled in with youth, but I think that was as much due to the fact that he had no cap left to overspend on veterans.
I think the #1 problem with this franchise is the owner, Dolan.
Phil has apparently kept him at bay, but we still seem to be catering to his desire to field a winner NOW.
Anyone arguing to sign Jrue Holiday to a max deal this Summer.
franco?
I agree with VCoug. If you are signing anyone to that kind of money ($20M), and you already have unproductive veterans (compared to their money) like Noah and Lee (to a lesser extent) and Melo who kinda wants to be here, kinda doesn't - that is $75M of our $103M cap- then you are most certainly saying - yes, that is the piece we need to be markedly better.
We're on pace to win 34 games this year.
Swapping Rose out for Holiday is going to be what, a 10 game improvement? I doubt. Lets say conservatively 5 games. Now, we're sniffing the play offs. And probably missing, or getting in and getting trounced in 4 games. And our ability to improve after that is contingent on our rookies getting better and our old guys like Noah, Melo and Lee fighting off father time in a sport dominated by athletes.
We need a plan, that isn't myopically focused on moves that can be made now for immediate satisfaction.
The plan has to be 2-3 years out. Accumulate draft picks, get some top 5/10 talent in the draft, find some gems in the 2nd round, let the guys that are here stay together for 2-3 years- and if Phil wants them to play with triangles, great - maybe in year 3 they'll have an understanding of the system. Melo can leave or assume a Paul Pierce kinda role. Maybe Noah can turn into Herb Williams on the bench and mentor Porzingas.
How is sucking with cap flexibility better than getting better by adding players? Even if they carry a high cost?
Again.. you cant get past "Jru is our savior" when in fact he may simply be a nice player the Knicks are trying to add to improve the team. You sound like a grumpy parent grounding your kids. "Knicks cant spend ANY money until this room is CLEANED!" (Even if it makes sense.)
If the Knicks are still losing should we give KP that max contract extension? Or does that also make zero sense since again we are not one player away... It doesnt matter where the players come from. If they are talented they will cost money.
You guys are turning FA into some emotional measuring stick for the team, when all it is is another way to add talent and pieces.
To me, cap space is an asset. Given where we are as a franchise, I'd rather hold on to it for use in the future, and in the near term, spread it out over 2-3 players rather than spend it on one player.
There has to be balance to the roster - I don't think you can spend $75M or about 75% of our cap on 4 players- not when three of them are on the wrong side of 30- and especially not when we're not winning games. We can lose just as easily with Jennings at $8-10M and a draft pick and Ron Baker at the PG spot.
I don't think there is a rule that says only winning teams should spend max type money on players - but we already have 2 guys that fit that description (Melo & Noah) and we're not winning.
Keep cap space open this summer. Keep flexibility.
Chris Paul has a player option in 2017/18. If we max out Holiday, we have no real chance at him. And I'm not saying we do have a shot - but I'd rather keep my options open.
I don't think it's a simple retort.
Do we have zero chance at Paul? Probably - but what if Melo finally comes through? What if we put it together next year, and KP and Willy take the next step- much more attractive destination.
Maxing someone out this summer means we've tied our hands for the following summer- unless Melo opts out.
And I think I'd have a very different perspective if Noah hasn't been such a disappointment. If Noah were hurt and showed like he might be worth his money next year, I'd have a very different approach to our cap.
We should be looking for FAs that accomplish a few things, starting with raising the play of our young players.
To me this was a learning year, and what we learned is that Melo is Melo and that DadMelo was a flash in the pants. He's still a ball holding ISO scorer and a jump shooter and not much else. He's got plenty of value around the league but not to team that is rebuilding around guys that play the same position. So #1 is to decide if we are keeping him or pushing him out. If you keep him there is some need to balance the roster and have enough guys that can win. That means spending on FAs to make this group better.
If you move Melo than you decide if you want to add pieces, or just run the youth out there and if they lose a ton of games its another lottery pick. Thats actually what most teams do as they are acquiring enough youth worth building around.
Holding out hope for Melo to fix this? Thats not his job, but would explain why so many people around here dog him.
Listen, if we can move Melo, that changes everything. I just don't see him leaving or us being able to move him.
I'm not holding out hope for Melo to save the franchise, but if there was, I'd like to have the flexibility to entertain Paul as a signing.
And my point with Noah isn't that he didn't work out, I'll never sign another FA - it's that given what our cap looks like with Noah, Lee & Melo, we can't add another max type deal and have 75% of our cap locked into just 4 players.
Think it through.. Melo goes nowhere. Knicks keep Lee. Rose walks. Knicks have $25mm in cap space. You just let it sit instead of trying to go out and get guys? The cap has changed... Melo's got 2 years left. He will be gone before we have to resign Willy and KP.
I mean once CP3 resigns with LAC whats your play? Whats your offseason plan? Sorry to needle you man, but I just dont get "we have spent, so now we shouldnt" when you may have a chance to add a nice piece to your team moving forward.
George Hill is really good but always hurt. He could be added, but costly. Jeff Teague is really good also. Patty Mills could be a good fit. We know what we are getting from Rose... all those guys are going to cost a ton of money. Whats your play? Be OK with stinking and drafting or are you willing to spend enough to get one of these guys in or back to help the backcourt?
I'd like to resign Jennings at the right money. Then maybe one or two players like a KOQ where they are 3-4M each - guys that can man up on defense - especially on the perimeter to help our 3 pt defense.
I don't want to over pay and have a guy that is impossible to move.
So yes - if we stink next year - that is fine as long as I am developing whoever we draft, KP, Willy et al.
If we're going with this triangle or whatever system we're trying to run, it takes time for guys to get comfortable, buy in.
Incremental improvement.
I'd love a top 5 pick this year, and a top 10 next year - then you are better able to sign a max player because you've build a solid foundation.
We currently have the 12th highest pay roll, but the results do not match our record.
I think we should target a mid $80M for next years roster, and when we start getting performance, then open it up.
Otherwise, how is Phil different than Isiah- with the exception of not trading our first round picks?
I have no problem with looking to add high caliber players over the next couple years via the draft.
How is Phil different from Isiah? Phil's bad moves hurt you for maybe a year, and have been short term at worst. Isiah's bad moves set the franchise back a decade by trading draft picks that could have yielded franchise caliber talent. The fact that Phil has the young base of players he has with 1 first rounder in 3 years is impressive. He's done a good job.
I agree. KOQ was an amazing signing. I also thought Robin Lopez was a great deal and bad to swap for Rose/Noah.
Who are we going to be able to get? I'm not nearly educated enough to hazard any kind of guesses. But, if a solid role player is going to cost $10m, I'd rather spend $10m given our record and present circumstances than $20M on Holiday.Also role players are going for more than $10mm these days. Save the money for guys who move the needle, even if its still below .500
Holiday is just one example... lets see what the squad looks like.
Franco I get it... your point is lets curb spending until it makes sense to spend. On the surface there is plenty of logic there. That being said its not always that easy, and one follows another. Sometimes you have to overpay to get guys in... all I am saying is we shouldn't squander opportunity because it gets in the way of a philosophy, especially if that hasn't served us in the past.
What I like about Holiday is he could really help balance us, especially if we draft a PG. Let him back up Holiday or be 6th man his first couple of years, rather than throwing him to the wolves and letting him develop bad habits. We will see what Phil does (assuming he's not replaced by Isiah
The problem is the "impact guys" you have in mind aren't impact guys. Our high priced players are not even positively impacting the game. We're doing better when Noah, Rose, Melo, and Lee are off the court. Big name doesn't equal impact. There are always bargain players available in free agency. There will be this offseason. It's impossible to know in advance who they'll be because we don't know how much other GMs will offer players, though. If we insist on having players on large contracts, I'd rather take back other teams' bad contracts as part of trades where we get picks or young players as compensation than just give out our own bad contracts, though.
The "shortcuts" where you pay an unimpressive player big bucks don't help. They just compound the problem. It's what the team's been doing for 15 years now (except that Phil is doing better with drafting).I mean you can say you would rather do nothing than spend or overspend, but again, in this market you are the GM that literally did nothing while all these players were available being signed.
Most would say Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson have bad contracts. If they were on the Knicks and we had our record they would be killed. How's Houston doing?
The only risk free investment ensures you very little gains.
There's no list saying in the future how much each GM will offer each player. That's why it's impossible to know now how much it will take to get different FAs. No one said anything about sitting back though. Starting on day 1 of free agency, we need to make offers to players *based on what both the eyeball test and the metrics indicate they're worth*. Every year, I list a few FAs that I think we can probably get as bargains but I don't do this for a living. The most important first step would be hiring people from the top metrics departments (GS, SAS, Toronto, etc.) to work for us.
It took some long bad years for GS to get Curry/Klay then suddenly they become a model franchise.
I mean who are the guys you want Bonn? Who do YOU feel is worth paying for?
ultimateknicks is full of guys who say "your idea sucks" but offer none of their own aside from the magic talent pool of NBA players that are high impact and cost eff and have no names but are impossible to ID because they can only be seen in the revisionist hindsight crystal ball. Yawn.