Knicks · Article on the Triangle based on substituting the best offensive players for the Knicks (page 3)

martin wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:Martin posted an article last summer from a guy that is an 'insider' and attended the summer league (I believe as a media member or scout because Orlando doesn't sell tickets). The guy had a lot of info but one of the things he said was that the Knicks were done with Grant and saw him as a mistake. I think Grant was going to be moved anyway but the Knicks needed a point guard. It wasn't just for Melo. Remember how excited the board got about the Wroten signing? Larkin, Jose and Jerian are all back ups at best.

one of the things you will need to argue then is that Grant was worth the wait and/or showed enough to hold onto by potential itself OR that taking a shot at a former MVP wasn't worth the upside risk. Tough argument all things considered. I don't want Chicago and still see that Grants numbers are nothing to write home about.

I don't know if he was worth the wait. My point was that the Knicks needed a point guard as a team. It wasn't just that Melo needed a point guard. Glad that Grant is still getting minutes (based on tweet not research). I thought he might get cut after the Bulls traded for Payne and said they are keeping Rondo.

nixluva wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:so I hate this shit... you don't play basketball the same way in March as you do in May. "Low value mid rage shots" my ass - that's the ONLY open looks you get in June. Yes three point shooting is more important that it used to be but that almost makes the mid range game more important because you can take away the three and the paint, but guess what that leaves available? Also, you can stretch the triangle's spacing out to include threes...

Yes and the Knicks have increased their 3pt shooting this year!!! They're middle of the league rather than bottom of the league as they were. Hornacek has improved the team's pace and 3pt shooting.

IMO the bytching about this current roster is useless. We have 3 picks and cap space. They will be INEVITABLY moving towards the future. There's no stopping this process. Youth will be served as it should. The Melo Era is coming to a close.

When does the losing ERA close...

nix for real man, tonight when you watch the game I want you to notice that KP is far less effective when melo and rose are off the floor. In a game Right before the ankle injury, he replace melo at the start of the 2nd quarter(the routine if his not in foul trouble) after a decent start, I watched his every move when melo and rose where on the bench, he took 3 shots (missed all 3) playing 8 mins of the 2nd quarter, 3 fouls.

Here's the problem I have with you and a few other posters..

When kp struggles, it's rose, melo and BJ's fault, there not getting him the ball enough.

When he struggle without them on the court, it's "he's young and needs time to grow and develop"
KP will never ever be the type of aggressive demand the ball KG Type...

Rose is a PnR player, playing in a non PNR system. 99% of the PG's in college and in the NBA are PnR players because that's what they league is about.

CrushAlot wrote:

Shot Selection in the Knicks’ Triangle Offense
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By Stephen Shea, Ph.D.

The triangle offense has been incredibly successful in the NBA in the past. Phil Jackson famously implemented the triangle offense on championship teams in Chicago and Los Angeles. However, the NBA has changed significantly since Jackson last led a team to a title. Offenses now feature more perimeter shooters, and they station fewer bodies in the paint. They create more space for players to drive and cut down the lane. Today’s offenses are more influenced by analytics and have adapted to defensive rule changes. One has to wonder if the triangle offense will still be as successful as it once was.

The concern is shot selection.

We will analyze shots from six regions—the restricted area, the paint (but not the restricted area), mid-range, the left corner 3, the right corner 3, and the above-the-break 3. The league has the highest eFG% from the restricted area. The second highest eFG% is the corner 3. Not surprisingly then, many teams are striving to get more shots from those two high efficiency zones.

In contrast, the mid-range jump shot is the least efficient shot. Thus, teams are looking to take less shots from this area. That is, all teams follow this trend except the Knicks. The Knicks are getting .97 points from mid-range for every 1 point from the restricted area. That’s the highest such ratio in the NBA in 2015. In fact, it’s the most for any team in any season from 2009-10 through 2014-15.

Some might argue that we cannot evaluate the triangle offense based on these Knicks. These Knicks aren’t loaded with talent. One might suggest that we shouldn’t dismiss the offensive system just because these Knicks can’t make their shots. So, let’s try an experiment. Let’s create the Dream 2014-15 Knicks. These Dream Knicks will still take the same number of shots from each region as the 2014-15 Knicks. However, these Dream Knicks will shoot the league best % from each region. These Dream Knicks will finish around the hoop like Blake Griffin and the Clippers. They’ll knock down mid-range and above-the-break jumpers like the Splash Brothers and Golden State. We’ll even assume they shoot 52.6% from the right corner 3, which if it held for a full season, would be the highest corner 3 % for any team in the last 10 years. We gave the Dream Knicks the league’s best field goal % from every region and then recalculated their eFG%. How do these Griffin-dunking, splash brothers shooting Dream Knicks rank in eFG%? They still don’t have the best eFG% in the league. They still aren’t getting as many points per shot as this season’s Warriors or Clippers.

Maybe I’m being too negative. There is some good news here. Assuming the Knicks current shot selection, if the Knicks could shoot the league’s best % from each region, they would be an above average offense. I guess that’s one road map to success—build a backcourt that shoots like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and a front court that finishes at the hoop like DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin. The Knicks could do that….or they could ditch the triangle.

Let’s try another experiment. Let’s leave the Knicks’ shooting percentages as they are. Let’s suppose the Knicks finish like these Knicks—a team often believed to be considerably short on talent. Let’s now suppose that they have Houston’s shot selection. Remember how the Knicks had the highest ratio of mid-range points to restricted area points in any of the last 6 seasons. Houston has the second lowest such ratio of the same time frame. They trail only last season’s Rockets. While the 2014-15 Knicks seem to design their offense around getting the mid-range (and least efficient) shot, Houston tries very hard to avoid them.

To be clear, the current Knicks are 23rd in the league in eFG% (at approximately 48.5). If we keep the same shooting percentages and only alter their shot selection to mimic the Houston Rockets, the Knicks eFG% jumps to 52.2, which would be good enough for 6th in the league and only slightly behind the Dream Knicks who would have an eFG% of 53.6.

So, the Knicks have at least two paths to an efficient offense. They can keep their current shot selection as generated largely through the triangle offense and assemble the greatest shooting roster of all time. Or, they could alter their offensive strategy to be more consistent with everything we’ve learned through basketball analytics.

(All stats are courtesy of NBA.com and are current through the January 25th games.)

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2...

my biggest reaction to this: why did they pick the 2014-2015 season to do an analysis on the team? Both Melo and Amare were out/traded for half the games. Shump/JR traded. Bargs played 30 games, Jose 40. Larkin started some games and so did Shved, Ledo, Jason Smith, Lou Admundson, Gallo.

What types of worthwhile conclusions can you gather from that type of team? Not much IMHO.

Why not pick last year? Or this year so far?

martin wrote:

CrushAlot wrote:

Shot Selection in the Knicks’ Triangle Offense
Share our posts...Share on Google+Share on LinkedInPin on PinterestTweet about this on TwitterShare on Facebook
By Stephen Shea, Ph.D.

The triangle offense has been incredibly successful in the NBA in the past. Phil Jackson famously implemented the triangle offense on championship teams in Chicago and Los Angeles. However, the NBA has changed significantly since Jackson last led a team to a title. Offenses now feature more perimeter shooters, and they station fewer bodies in the paint. They create more space for players to drive and cut down the lane. Today’s offenses are more influenced by analytics and have adapted to defensive rule changes. One has to wonder if the triangle offense will still be as successful as it once was.

The concern is shot selection.

We will analyze shots from six regions—the restricted area, the paint (but not the restricted area), mid-range, the left corner 3, the right corner 3, and the above-the-break 3. The league has the highest eFG% from the restricted area. The second highest eFG% is the corner 3. Not surprisingly then, many teams are striving to get more shots from those two high efficiency zones.

In contrast, the mid-range jump shot is the least efficient shot. Thus, teams are looking to take less shots from this area. That is, all teams follow this trend except the Knicks. The Knicks are getting .97 points from mid-range for every 1 point from the restricted area. That’s the highest such ratio in the NBA in 2015. In fact, it’s the most for any team in any season from 2009-10 through 2014-15.

Some might argue that we cannot evaluate the triangle offense based on these Knicks. These Knicks aren’t loaded with talent. One might suggest that we shouldn’t dismiss the offensive system just because these Knicks can’t make their shots. So, let’s try an experiment. Let’s create the Dream 2014-15 Knicks. These Dream Knicks will still take the same number of shots from each region as the 2014-15 Knicks. However, these Dream Knicks will shoot the league best % from each region. These Dream Knicks will finish around the hoop like Blake Griffin and the Clippers. They’ll knock down mid-range and above-the-break jumpers like the Splash Brothers and Golden State. We’ll even assume they shoot 52.6% from the right corner 3, which if it held for a full season, would be the highest corner 3 % for any team in the last 10 years. We gave the Dream Knicks the league’s best field goal % from every region and then recalculated their eFG%. How do these Griffin-dunking, splash brothers shooting Dream Knicks rank in eFG%? They still don’t have the best eFG% in the league. They still aren’t getting as many points per shot as this season’s Warriors or Clippers.

Maybe I’m being too negative. There is some good news here. Assuming the Knicks current shot selection, if the Knicks could shoot the league’s best % from each region, they would be an above average offense. I guess that’s one road map to success—build a backcourt that shoots like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and a front court that finishes at the hoop like DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin. The Knicks could do that….or they could ditch the triangle.

Let’s try another experiment. Let’s leave the Knicks’ shooting percentages as they are. Let’s suppose the Knicks finish like these Knicks—a team often believed to be considerably short on talent. Let’s now suppose that they have Houston’s shot selection. Remember how the Knicks had the highest ratio of mid-range points to restricted area points in any of the last 6 seasons. Houston has the second lowest such ratio of the same time frame. They trail only last season’s Rockets. While the 2014-15 Knicks seem to design their offense around getting the mid-range (and least efficient) shot, Houston tries very hard to avoid them.

To be clear, the current Knicks are 23rd in the league in eFG% (at approximately 48.5). If we keep the same shooting percentages and only alter their shot selection to mimic the Houston Rockets, the Knicks eFG% jumps to 52.2, which would be good enough for 6th in the league and only slightly behind the Dream Knicks who would have an eFG% of 53.6.

So, the Knicks have at least two paths to an efficient offense. They can keep their current shot selection as generated largely through the triangle offense and assemble the greatest shooting roster of all time. Or, they could alter their offensive strategy to be more consistent with everything we’ve learned through basketball analytics.

(All stats are courtesy of NBA.com and are current through the January 25th games.)

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2...

my biggest reaction to this: why did they pick the 2014-2015 season to do an analysis on the team? Both Melo and Amare were out/traded for half the games. Shump/JR traded. Bargs played 30 games, Jose 40. Larkin started some games and so did Shved, Ledo, Jason Smith, Lou Admundson, Gallo.

What types of worthwhile conclusions can you gather from that type of team? Not much IMHO.

Why not pick last year? Or this year so far?

I think this article was written back in 2015, during the 2014-15 season on January 27th.

I would love to see an update for both last year's team and this year's.

nixluva wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:I am sorry but this is completely jacked up reasoning. Anyone who thinks we will shoot the same percentage from corner 3 when we take 10% of our shots from there vs. When we take 25% of our shots from there has no idea about how to use statistics. This type of extrapolation is not supported by anything.

We don't design our offense around mid range shots. I don't know what this guy watches but we have possession after possession where our "alpha dogs" ignore open 3 pt shooters so they can attempt contested jump shots. That is not a problem with the design.

Overall the article is just a compilation of numbers and a conclusion that's a complete non sequitur.

YUP! This is the real reason for the lack of 3pt shots. The proper play here would've been to pass to one of the open shooters! You've got Melo, KP and CLee who are all very good 3pt shooters. Once Rose draws in the D the SMART play is to hit one of them.

The smart play is to hit the open man, but do you give up a high % shot that can result in a and 1, or do you pass out to a low pct shot where it maybe a long rebound that leads to a fast break the other way

knicks1248 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:I am sorry but this is completely jacked up reasoning. Anyone who thinks we will shoot the same percentage from corner 3 when we take 10% of our shots from there vs. When we take 25% of our shots from there has no idea about how to use statistics. This type of extrapolation is not supported by anything.

We don't design our offense around mid range shots. I don't know what this guy watches but we have possession after possession where our "alpha dogs" ignore open 3 pt shooters so they can attempt contested jump shots. That is not a problem with the design.

Overall the article is just a compilation of numbers and a conclusion that's a complete non sequitur.

YUP! This is the real reason for the lack of 3pt shots. The proper play here would've been to pass to one of the open shooters! You've got Melo, KP and CLee who are all very good 3pt shooters. Once Rose draws in the D the SMART play is to hit one of them.

The smart play is to hit the open man, but do you give up a high % shot that can result in a and 1, or do you pass out to a low pct shot where it maybe a long rebound that leads to a fast break the other way

Rose has three defenders in between himself and the open man - that's a high risk pass, there's no passing lane.

The problem is the positioning of those open players. Rather than being open in the corner for a high percentage three with a good passing angle for Rose, they're at the top of the key, a lower percentage three and a harder pass for Rose.

crzymdups wrote:

knicks1248 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:I am sorry but this is completely jacked up reasoning. Anyone who thinks we will shoot the same percentage from corner 3 when we take 10% of our shots from there vs. When we take 25% of our shots from there has no idea about how to use statistics. This type of extrapolation is not supported by anything.

We don't design our offense around mid range shots. I don't know what this guy watches but we have possession after possession where our "alpha dogs" ignore open 3 pt shooters so they can attempt contested jump shots. That is not a problem with the design.

Overall the article is just a compilation of numbers and a conclusion that's a complete non sequitur.

YUP! This is the real reason for the lack of 3pt shots. The proper play here would've been to pass to one of the open shooters! You've got Melo, KP and CLee who are all very good 3pt shooters. Once Rose draws in the D the SMART play is to hit one of them.

The smart play is to hit the open man, but do you give up a high % shot that can result in a and 1, or do you pass out to a low pct shot where it maybe a long rebound that leads to a fast break the other way

Rose has three defenders in between himself and the open man - that's a high risk pass, there's no passing lane.

The problem is the positioning of those open players. Rather than being open in the corner for a high percentage three with a good passing angle for Rose, they're at the top of the key, a lower percentage three and a harder pass for Rose.

That's a good point, especially since rose can't seem to pass without jumping in the air.

knicks1248 wrote:

crzymdups wrote:

knicks1248 wrote:

nixluva wrote:

meloshouldgo wrote:I am sorry but this is completely jacked up reasoning. Anyone who thinks we will shoot the same percentage from corner 3 when we take 10% of our shots from there vs. When we take 25% of our shots from there has no idea about how to use statistics. This type of extrapolation is not supported by anything.

We don't design our offense around mid range shots. I don't know what this guy watches but we have possession after possession where our "alpha dogs" ignore open 3 pt shooters so they can attempt contested jump shots. That is not a problem with the design.

Overall the article is just a compilation of numbers and a conclusion that's a complete non sequitur.

YUP! This is the real reason for the lack of 3pt shots. The proper play here would've been to pass to one of the open shooters! You've got Melo, KP and CLee who are all very good 3pt shooters. Once Rose draws in the D the SMART play is to hit one of them.

The smart play is to hit the open man, but do you give up a high % shot that can result in a and 1, or do you pass out to a low pct shot where it maybe a long rebound that leads to a fast break the other way

Rose has three defenders in between himself and the open man - that's a high risk pass, there's no passing lane.

The problem is the positioning of those open players. Rather than being open in the corner for a high percentage three with a good passing angle for Rose, they're at the top of the key, a lower percentage three and a harder pass for Rose.

That's a good point, especially since rose can't seem to pass without jumping in the air.

It's about timing. Rose missed the window where he should've passed once the defenders collapsed and before he jumped in the air. If he's thinking drive n kick this wouldn't happen. He's putting his head down and not seeing the floor. No matter what the spacing Rose is playing the wrong way.