Knicks · What if we nail this top 10 pick? (page 2)
2017 is key!
Zebo13 wrote: With the salary cap going up I don't think Noah's contract is quite as bad as it appears...
As a fan of the game itself, removing any issue regarding the Knicks and my own fandom, I love Noah as a player. I do. So it pains me to say, and this is widely held consensus around the league, that Noah is the worst contract in the league right now. It's absolutely horrible.
And what no one seems to point out or say is that the margin for error in NBA team building, esp a rebuild, is slim to none. We are talking razor thin.
This is not like MLB or the NFL, where you can overturn a roster in a couple of seasons and do it dramatically.
Teams on a razors edge already don't have a ton of room for more mistakes.
This is not the NFL, where you can dump a lot of players immediately or in a year and just move forward. This is also not MLB where you can find a 20th round draft gem or try different methods of team building. The NBA has a very small talent pool and widespread use of fully guaranteed contracts make rebuilding ugly and difficult. Often very few players can make a huge impact in the draft and very teams can access those players. FA is not a boon for most teams, and very few elite guys ever move at all in this format.
Yes, Jackson started off with lots of limitations, but he did not help himself at all in this situation.
"It's really not that bad" is a statement that does not reflect, that in the NBA, how modern teams are forced to build or rebuild, it doesn't take much, doesn't take more than one or two horrible decision to reach "Yes, it is that bad"
The NBA marketplace is simply not a structure where you can absorb hits like this, like the Noah contract, and survive it.
Again, the narratives seem to be "Jackson is doing a great job" or Jackson is doing a horrible job", in which case no one seems to be saying that Jackson is doing a really mediocre job, and that in itself is more than enough reason to replace him and see he's not helping the future of this franchise. Mediocre makes you a treadmill team, and in the NBA, under the current system, that's basically a death sentence for a franchise.
TripleThreat wrote:Zebo13 wrote: With the salary cap going up I don't think Noah's contract is quite as bad as it appears...As a fan of the game itself, removing any issue regarding the Knicks and my own fandom, I love Noah as a player. I do. So it pains me to say, and this is widely held consensus around the league, that Noah is the worst contract in the league right now. It's absolutely horrible.
Is it really though? What about parsons? What about Mosgov? Deng? Biyombo? Its a bad contract but at least he brings intangibles and it's over with in 3 years. I think knick fans just seem to indulge in hyperbole.
To be honest under this CBA the only really bad contracts are the 5 year max's for 30+ players, simply because you can only sign the other free agents to 4 years. this isn't like in the IT era where you were doomed for many many years.
smackeddog wrote:TripleThreat wrote:Zebo13 wrote: With the salary cap going up I don't think Noah's contract is quite as bad as it appears...As a fan of the game itself, removing any issue regarding the Knicks and my own fandom, I love Noah as a player. I do. So it pains me to say, and this is widely held consensus around the league, that Noah is the worst contract in the league right now. It's absolutely horrible.
Is it really though? What about parsons? What about Mosgov? Deng? Biyombo? Its a bad contract but at least he brings intangibles and it's over with in 3 years. I think knick fans just seem to indulge in hyperbole.
To be honest under this CBA the only really bad contracts are the 5 year max's for 30+ players, simply because you can only sign the other free agents to 4 years. this isn't like in the IT era where you were doomed for many many years.
Agreed. $17M is not that much compared to where it sounds the cap is headed. I'm sure we can creatively dump him as well. I don't think we're doomed due to one bad contract. Happens all the time.
crzymdups wrote:fishmike wrote:Knixkik wrote:this. People here have said this has needed to happen for a long time. Now that its happening its a disaster, we suck and Phil is the worst.nixluva wrote:Knixkik wrote:BRIGGS wrote:Unless you get Ball or Fultz--everyone else has growing pains ahead of them. They could be good--but if you have wild expectation on year 1--no wayI'm not talking about any expectations for year 1. I'm talking long-term, having 2 star players to build around-it changes the trajectory of this team completely.
Exactly!!! Teams that draft 2 Star quality players tend to be more successful. This shouldn't be about instant results. This is a long term process.
Building a good core is about hitting on multiple picks within a small time-frame. The way Golden state hit on Curry, Klay, and Green within a couple years of each other. So they can grow together and share prime years together. So if the rebuild began in 2015 with KP, than we have to hit on 2017 and 2018. Willy can be included as well. Because after that, KP will be getting late into his rookie contract and there becomes much more of a rush to build a win-now team. That's the problem New Orleans has. They are trying different things because it might be too late to draft a couple of 19 year olds to build alongside 24 year old Anthony Davis. Really, these next 2 drafts will make or break this team for the next 5-10 years.
It's a silver lining to the absolutely atrocious job Phil did trying to build a contender through trades and free agency. Obviously most Knicks fans are fine with finally (hopefully) rebuilding through the draft. But to act like this was the plan Phil preached from the beginning is a massive, stinky pile of horse manure, man.
Remember Phil dangling the promise of cap room to sign two all-stars in 2015? That's how he got Melo to take less money that year, so we could add two max players. Then the team wins 17 games (when Phil predicted playoffs, he actually thought the Jose Calderon and Samuel Dalembert trade for Tyson Chandler and Felton would make them better!) and looks like a mess running the Triangle and we get Rolo and Afflalo, because no A-list or even B-list free agent will touch this team. He hits on KP in the draft, for which we're all eternally grateful.
Then 2016, he fires his coach, and swings for the fences with Rose (giving up a promising young PG and a competent cheap center) and Noah. Then he dicks Melo around in the media, alienating free agents across the league in the process. Not even mentioning the coaching back and forths and the Triangle will they or won't they game he's been playing.
He backed into rebuilding through the draft. And it's great he didn't trade any picks (though worth nothing that he could not trade the 2015 pick or the 2017 pick when he got here, since the 2014 and 2016 picks were already traded by previous regimes - he did try offering the 2018 pick for Teague in 2015, but the Hawks thought the pick was too far out).
We're in a good position with the draft now. I hope like hell we get a stud this year and next year, too. But to act like this was all part of Phil's master plan is a little much. It's a contingency plan. And I'm happy we're finally doing it - it's the ONLY way to build a team, imho. We need two years of good picks and then maybe look at Free Agency in 2018 summer.
But that's the thing you don't get.
Phil went to win now and also left a window to have a contingency and bright future IF things went the other way.
The people in charge the last 15 years before him, did not make those plans.
Phil is doing two things at once. Or atleast has tried to.
He's trying to build a winning team now with Melo.
He's also trying to build a team for the future.
He failed miserably in achieving goal number 1 which was to put forth a competitive team around Melo, but it has not been becaue of talent. It's been a number of things that just didn't work out. Rose, Lee, Melo, KP, Jennngs, Thomas, O'Quinn ... that's enough talent to do something in the East.
What I think many like about Phil is that while his short term moves have all sucked/failed, his longterm positioning of the franchise is secure. We have very easily another maximum cap slot this summer if we want to let Rose walk and maybe deal O'Quinn for a second round pick. Will free up $30 million almost for us. Next year Melo opts out, and again, lots of capspace. Meanwhile you've got two outstanding rookies in consecutive seasons with KP and Willy. KP was the 2nd best rookie in 2016, Willy is a top 5 rookie in 2017. We'll have a lottery pick for the 2018 rookie class. So capspace, good to very good rookies maybe 3 straight years and you have a good D league/development program. I can't say he's Isiah bad.
I keep asking this with no answer. How many executives put together a contender within 3 years with one draf pick in 3 years? Almost all the current top teams are where they are because of having lottery picks for a few consecutive years.
Cleveland drafted Irving, drafted Wiggins/Bennet to trade them to MIN for Love, drafted Thompson
Golden State drafted Curry, Thompson and Green
It's going to take some time, but I feel real good about where the Knicks could be at the start of the 2018-19 season. All Phil has to do until then is not mess up the draft picks or make a horrible longterm franchise crippling move. He has done everything he can so far to invest in his draft picks, so I hope that continues.
Coaching will take care of itself. If Horny doesn't improve with a new roster, he'll be gone.
Zebo13 wrote:smackeddog wrote:TripleThreat wrote:Zebo13 wrote: With the salary cap going up I don't think Noah's contract is quite as bad as it appears...As a fan of the game itself, removing any issue regarding the Knicks and my own fandom, I love Noah as a player. I do. So it pains me to say, and this is widely held consensus around the league, that Noah is the worst contract in the league right now. It's absolutely horrible.
Is it really though? What about parsons? What about Mosgov? Deng? Biyombo? Its a bad contract but at least he brings intangibles and it's over with in 3 years. I think knick fans just seem to indulge in hyperbole.
To be honest under this CBA the only really bad contracts are the 5 year max's for 30+ players, simply because you can only sign the other free agents to 4 years. this isn't like in the IT era where you were doomed for many many years.
Agreed. $17M is not that much compared to where it sounds the cap is headed. I'm sure we can creatively dump him as well. I don't think we're doomed due to one bad contract. Happens all the time.
Cap is flat next year.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/projec...
We have $23M in space, and that is with 11 players under contract.
I don't see that has huge room, given the holes on the roster, lack of talent and needs.
Much of that salary is going to be taken with our draft pick(s).
martin wrote:franco12 wrote:we're still in the lottery next year as well, if that is what you are asking.AWESOME! And I am totally serious about that.
My dream: Knicks get 1-3 pick because Stern sneaks back in for a night with the envelopes. Knicks trade Melo and do not resign Rose. 1 more year of tank. And then 15 years of glory.
I agree with you, it's time to stop pissing away years and let tanking build a winner. It's obvious GMs don't know how to do their jobs when tanking is one of the best tried and test method of building winners.
nyknickzingis wrote:crzymdups wrote:fishmike wrote:Knixkik wrote:this. People here have said this has needed to happen for a long time. Now that its happening its a disaster, we suck and Phil is the worst.nixluva wrote:Knixkik wrote:BRIGGS wrote:Unless you get Ball or Fultz--everyone else has growing pains ahead of them. They could be good--but if you have wild expectation on year 1--no wayI'm not talking about any expectations for year 1. I'm talking long-term, having 2 star players to build around-it changes the trajectory of this team completely.
Exactly!!! Teams that draft 2 Star quality players tend to be more successful. This shouldn't be about instant results. This is a long term process.
Building a good core is about hitting on multiple picks within a small time-frame. The way Golden state hit on Curry, Klay, and Green within a couple years of each other. So they can grow together and share prime years together. So if the rebuild began in 2015 with KP, than we have to hit on 2017 and 2018. Willy can be included as well. Because after that, KP will be getting late into his rookie contract and there becomes much more of a rush to build a win-now team. That's the problem New Orleans has. They are trying different things because it might be too late to draft a couple of 19 year olds to build alongside 24 year old Anthony Davis. Really, these next 2 drafts will make or break this team for the next 5-10 years.
It's a silver lining to the absolutely atrocious job Phil did trying to build a contender through trades and free agency. Obviously most Knicks fans are fine with finally (hopefully) rebuilding through the draft. But to act like this was the plan Phil preached from the beginning is a massive, stinky pile of horse manure, man.
Remember Phil dangling the promise of cap room to sign two all-stars in 2015? That's how he got Melo to take less money that year, so we could add two max players. Then the team wins 17 games (when Phil predicted playoffs, he actually thought the Jose Calderon and Samuel Dalembert trade for Tyson Chandler and Felton would make them better!) and looks like a mess running the Triangle and we get Rolo and Afflalo, because no A-list or even B-list free agent will touch this team. He hits on KP in the draft, for which we're all eternally grateful.
Then 2016, he fires his coach, and swings for the fences with Rose (giving up a promising young PG and a competent cheap center) and Noah. Then he dicks Melo around in the media, alienating free agents across the league in the process. Not even mentioning the coaching back and forths and the Triangle will they or won't they game he's been playing.
He backed into rebuilding through the draft. And it's great he didn't trade any picks (though worth nothing that he could not trade the 2015 pick or the 2017 pick when he got here, since the 2014 and 2016 picks were already traded by previous regimes - he did try offering the 2018 pick for Teague in 2015, but the Hawks thought the pick was too far out).
We're in a good position with the draft now. I hope like hell we get a stud this year and next year, too. But to act like this was all part of Phil's master plan is a little much. It's a contingency plan. And I'm happy we're finally doing it - it's the ONLY way to build a team, imho. We need two years of good picks and then maybe look at Free Agency in 2018 summer.
But that's the thing you don't get.
Phil went to win now and also left a window to have a contingency and bright future IF things went the other way.
The people in charge the last 15 years before him, did not make those plans.Phil is doing two things at once. Or atleast has tried to.
He's trying to build a winning team now with Melo.
He's also trying to build a team for the future.He failed miserably in achieving goal number 1 which was to put forth a competitive team around Melo, but it has not been becaue of talent. It's been a number of things that just didn't work out. Rose, Lee, Melo, KP, Jennngs, Thomas, O'Quinn ... that's enough talent to do something in the East.
What I think many like about Phil is that while his short term moves have all sucked/failed, his longterm positioning of the franchise is secure. We have very easily another maximum cap slot this summer if we want to let Rose walk and maybe deal O'Quinn for a second round pick. Will free up $30 million almost for us. Next year Melo opts out, and again, lots of capspace. Meanwhile you've got two outstanding rookies in consecutive seasons with KP and Willy. KP was the 2nd best rookie in 2016, Willy is a top 5 rookie in 2017. We'll have a lottery pick for the 2018 rookie class. So capspace, good to very good rookies maybe 3 straight years and you have a good D league/development program. I can't say he's Isiah bad.
I keep asking this with no answer. How many executives put together a contender within 3 years with one draf pick in 3 years? Almost all the current top teams are where they are because of having lottery picks for a few consecutive years.
Cleveland drafted Irving, drafted Wiggins/Bennet to trade them to MIN for Love, drafted Thompson
Golden State drafted Curry, Thompson and GreenIt's going to take some time, but I feel real good about where the Knicks could be at the start of the 2018-19 season. All Phil has to do until then is not mess up the draft picks or make a horrible longterm franchise crippling move. He has done everything he can so far to invest in his draft picks, so I hope that continues.
Coaching will take care of itself. If Horny doesn't improve with a new roster, he'll be gone.
I get it. Well, I get that you think that's what happened. If Phil's offer of a 2018 pick for Jeff Teague had been accepted by Atlanta, would you feel as strongly? What you don't get is that you are making a lot of assumptions about what Phil's intentions were and you're being very charitable in those assumptions. Phil has traded away Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jerian Grant and has not traded for any first rounders (other than the pick used on Grant)
Phil hasn't traded picks, that's the best thing he's done. Hopefully he executes those picks now. His best move, KP, has been languishing this season in a system that doesn't work for him with players who don't get him the ball. It's been bad for his development. Jokic has probably moved ahead of KP from that draft class at this rate. KP and Towns were once having comprable success (they had the same exact WS/48 about halfway thru their rookie campaigns). Now comparing Towns and KP would be seen as a joke. So Phil is killing his best move slowly.
I actually agree with you - he's been trying to do two things. He needs to pick one. Rebuild or try to contend. You really can't do both in the league unless you're the Spurs. We are assuming and hoping he's finally decided to rebuild. Let's hope that's true. But he's still playing the starters 40 minutes a night. And yes, that's a management decision, not the coach. Hornacek has said he's going to keep doing that until he hears from management. What if, heaven forbid we go 3-1 on the west coast and wind up in the 12th slot in the lottery.
Stop trying to do both. Being stuck between rebuilding and chasing the 8th seed is the absolute worst place to be in the NBA. This plan of trying to do both is hurting KP's development at this point and it may endanger our draft pick. There's a world of difference between having the 4th pick and having the 11th pick. Right now those teams are separated by four games in the standings and the Knicks are right in the middle - 2 wins away from 4th and 2 wins away from 11th. Time to choose a path. Knicks have been losing, but nothing else Phil has done tells you he's picked a path. Time to shut down Melo and Rose and maybe KP for the year. Pick a path. It needs to happen, or we'll keep languishing as the 22nd best team in a 30 team league.
crzymdups wrote:I understand the frustration of Phil's silence. I also think "backing into a rebuild" is much fairer than "absolutely atrocious" but again... i do understand your frustration and I know you to be like me, a guy who posts without an agenda. Because of this I listen to your frustrations with Phil much closer than others who I know simply hate him and want him to fail.fishmike wrote:Zebo13 wrote:I would say it has NOT been "absolutely atrocious" by any stretch. People like to harp on how all in Phil was with his win now and how badly he tanked but the bottom line is he didnt trade picks, and the Knicks unprotected #1 and future #1s in this FA market have great value. Phil has clearly exhausted every means.. Europe, D league, 2nd round.. to bring in and develop young talent. So yes.. he was utterly failed to get this group to contend NO, he has not been absolutely atrocious because the losing season will yield what we all know this franchise needs above ALL else.. more high end young talent.crzymdups wrote:fishmike wrote:Knixkik wrote:this. People here have said this has needed to happen for a long time. Now that its happening its a disaster, we suck and Phil is the worst.nixluva wrote:Knixkik wrote:BRIGGS wrote:Unless you get Ball or Fultz--everyone else has growing pains ahead of them. They could be good--but if you have wild expectation on year 1--no wayI'm not talking about any expectations for year 1. I'm talking long-term, having 2 star players to build around-it changes the trajectory of this team completely.
Exactly!!! Teams that draft 2 Star quality players tend to be more successful. This shouldn't be about instant results. This is a long term process.
Building a good core is about hitting on multiple picks within a small time-frame. The way Golden state hit on Curry, Klay, and Green within a couple years of each other. So they can grow together and share prime years together. So if the rebuild began in 2015 with KP, than we have to hit on 2017 and 2018. Willy can be included as well. Because after that, KP will be getting late into his rookie contract and there becomes much more of a rush to build a win-now team. That's the problem New Orleans has. They are trying different things because it might be too late to draft a couple of 19 year olds to build alongside 24 year old Anthony Davis. Really, these next 2 drafts will make or break this team for the next 5-10 years.
It's a silver lining to the absolutely atrocious job Phil did trying to build a contender through trades and free agency. Obviously most Knicks fans are fine with finally (hopefully) rebuilding through the draft. But to act like this was the plan Phil preached from the beginning is a massive, stinky pile of horse manure, man.
Remember Phil dangling the promise of cap room to sign two all-stars in 2015? That's how he got Melo to take less money that year, so we could add two max players. Then the team wins 17 games (when Phil predicted playoffs, he actually thought the Jose Calderon and Samuel Dalembert trade for Tyson Chandler and Felton would make them better!) and looks like a mess running the Triangle and we get Rolo and Afflalo, because no A-list or even B-list free agent will touch this team. He hits on KP in the draft, for which we're all eternally grateful.
Then 2016, he fires his coach, and swings for the fences with Rose (giving up a promising young PG and a competent cheap center) and Noah. Then he dicks Melo around in the media, alienating free agents across the league in the process. Not even mentioning the coaching back and forths and the Triangle will they or won't they game he's been playing.
He backed into rebuilding through the draft. And it's great he didn't trade any picks (though worth nothing that he could not trade the 2015 pick or the 2017 pick when he got here, since the 2014 and 2016 picks were already traded by previous regimes - he did try offering the 2018 pick for Teague in 2015, but the Hawks thought the pick was too far out).
We're in a good position with the draft now. I hope like hell we get a stud this year and next year, too. But to act like this was all part of Phil's master plan is a little much. It's a contingency plan. And I'm happy we're finally doing it - it's the ONLY way to build a team, imho. We need two years of good picks and then maybe look at Free Agency in 2018 summer.
I agree with all of this but in Phils defense I think there was a lot of pressure to compete this year and last year with the amount of money we're paying Melo as well as his limited prime years. He made some moves and put together a team that could compete and win, albeit rarely, against any team in the league on a given night. With the salary cap going up I don't think Noah's contract is quite as bad as it appears and Lee is a good player with a good salary for the future as a starter or stud bench player. We've devoloped and discovered some good talent and glue guys to fill in some roles with KP and who we draft this year being the main future focus. And who knows, on a functional two way team Melo will likely be a lot better at team defense and ball movement.
He got guys for Melo. Everyone knows Phil asked Melo if they were moving fast enough. Maybe its Melo. Maybe its the roster Phil built. There has been a tear down and thats OK. The trades have been below average for sure. Even if guys like NDour, Plumlee, Randal or Baker never pan they show a good crop of guys to bring in and look at. I dont see us over focusing on one type of player. Thats been part of the problem.. Phil has failed to assemble and fitting parts. Truly a clumsy roster! But I do remain patient because I also see a commitment to build here. The had Melo. Worth a shot. No picks were spent in that shot. Next phase. I dont think its any more complicated.
That's fair - as long as we're committed to the next phase. Phil hasn't actually said anything about the state of the Knicks since September. I'd like to see word come down to start playing the young guys more and actually seeing what we have in guys like Randle and Kuz and Plumlee. I'll be very curious to hear what Phil has to say about this year after the season is over. I'm assuming he will address the media in mid April after exit interviews. Backing into a rebuild isn't the worst thing. And as many of us admit - that's what we need. Probably at least two to three years of being young and kinda bad and getting good picks in 2017, 18 and even 19. That clearly should be the plan. But unless Phil was performing a three year Jedi mind trick, I think it's fair to say that was not his plan coming in.
I do think Phil is more old school where they didnt talk about this stuff. He's from a time before the internet rumor mills and feeling of constant transparency and clearly he's got some adjustments to make there.
That being said I think your phrase of backing into a rebuild is perfect. He's had 1 first rounder in the first 3 years right? He had Melo and some other pieces here (which he made poor trades with). It made sense to take a shot and what did that shot cost us? Grant? Lopez? Possibly a bad contract with Noah? Those arent things that set franchises back though... not being able to bring in lottery quality talent after losing does.
So while MANY of Phils moves have not been good I dont see a clueless GM here. I see a GM clearly trying to get a pipeline and system built here. Phil has struggled no doubt... but many have used this season as an example of how clueless Phil is based on the fact that he thought this would be a playoff roster. Only thing is Phil did not double down on his mistakes despite opportunity. And if he did think this would be a successful group he didnt think it so much as to use any future asset (aside from possible cap space) to build this team. I look at every guy on this roster and I am good with the type of guys he's brought in with the exception of Melo (who was already here) and Rose (who's commitment was a 1 season tryout). So my overall perspective continues to be upbeat. My 2c
nixluva wrote:This is a great RELOAD DRAFT IMO! Phil has 3 picks and I think his mindset is that he's done with trying to do a Melo-centric team. Now he can focus on building a new core for the future of the franchise. Losing is no doubt embarrassing for Phil but it's also liberating for him. WIN NOW is no longer an option and it's clear the Draft is going to be critical to how he moves forward.seeing is believing. Lets see who is on this roster next year and who isnt.
franco12 wrote:Zebo13 wrote:smackeddog wrote:TripleThreat wrote:Zebo13 wrote: With the salary cap going up I don't think Noah's contract is quite as bad as it appears...As a fan of the game itself, removing any issue regarding the Knicks and my own fandom, I love Noah as a player. I do. So it pains me to say, and this is widely held consensus around the league, that Noah is the worst contract in the league right now. It's absolutely horrible.
Is it really though? What about parsons? What about Mosgov? Deng? Biyombo? Its a bad contract but at least he brings intangibles and it's over with in 3 years. I think knick fans just seem to indulge in hyperbole.
To be honest under this CBA the only really bad contracts are the 5 year max's for 30+ players, simply because you can only sign the other free agents to 4 years. this isn't like in the IT era where you were doomed for many many years.
Agreed. $17M is not that much compared to where it sounds the cap is headed. I'm sure we can creatively dump him as well. I don't think we're doomed due to one bad contract. Happens all the time.
Cap is flat next year.
http://www.basketballinsiders.com/projec...
We have $23M in space, and that is with 11 players under contract.
I don't see that has huge room, given the holes on the roster, lack of talent and needs.
Much of that salary is going to be taken with our draft pick(s).
Our salary cap situation will be fine.
fishmike wrote:crzymdups wrote:I understand the frustration of Phil's silence. I also think "backing into a rebuild" is much fairer than "absolutely atrocious" but again... i do understand your frustration and I know you to be like me, a guy who posts without an agenda. Because of this I listen to your frustrations with Phil much closer than others who I know simply hate him and want him to fail.fishmike wrote:Zebo13 wrote:I would say it has NOT been "absolutely atrocious" by any stretch. People like to harp on how all in Phil was with his win now and how badly he tanked but the bottom line is he didnt trade picks, and the Knicks unprotected #1 and future #1s in this FA market have great value. Phil has clearly exhausted every means.. Europe, D league, 2nd round.. to bring in and develop young talent. So yes.. he was utterly failed to get this group to contend NO, he has not been absolutely atrocious because the losing season will yield what we all know this franchise needs above ALL else.. more high end young talent.crzymdups wrote:fishmike wrote:Knixkik wrote:this. People here have said this has needed to happen for a long time. Now that its happening its a disaster, we suck and Phil is the worst.nixluva wrote:Knixkik wrote:BRIGGS wrote:Unless you get Ball or Fultz--everyone else has growing pains ahead of them. They could be good--but if you have wild expectation on year 1--no wayI'm not talking about any expectations for year 1. I'm talking long-term, having 2 star players to build around-it changes the trajectory of this team completely.
Exactly!!! Teams that draft 2 Star quality players tend to be more successful. This shouldn't be about instant results. This is a long term process.
Building a good core is about hitting on multiple picks within a small time-frame. The way Golden state hit on Curry, Klay, and Green within a couple years of each other. So they can grow together and share prime years together. So if the rebuild began in 2015 with KP, than we have to hit on 2017 and 2018. Willy can be included as well. Because after that, KP will be getting late into his rookie contract and there becomes much more of a rush to build a win-now team. That's the problem New Orleans has. They are trying different things because it might be too late to draft a couple of 19 year olds to build alongside 24 year old Anthony Davis. Really, these next 2 drafts will make or break this team for the next 5-10 years.
It's a silver lining to the absolutely atrocious job Phil did trying to build a contender through trades and free agency. Obviously most Knicks fans are fine with finally (hopefully) rebuilding through the draft. But to act like this was the plan Phil preached from the beginning is a massive, stinky pile of horse manure, man.
Remember Phil dangling the promise of cap room to sign two all-stars in 2015? That's how he got Melo to take less money that year, so we could add two max players. Then the team wins 17 games (when Phil predicted playoffs, he actually thought the Jose Calderon and Samuel Dalembert trade for Tyson Chandler and Felton would make them better!) and looks like a mess running the Triangle and we get Rolo and Afflalo, because no A-list or even B-list free agent will touch this team. He hits on KP in the draft, for which we're all eternally grateful.
Then 2016, he fires his coach, and swings for the fences with Rose (giving up a promising young PG and a competent cheap center) and Noah. Then he dicks Melo around in the media, alienating free agents across the league in the process. Not even mentioning the coaching back and forths and the Triangle will they or won't they game he's been playing.
He backed into rebuilding through the draft. And it's great he didn't trade any picks (though worth nothing that he could not trade the 2015 pick or the 2017 pick when he got here, since the 2014 and 2016 picks were already traded by previous regimes - he did try offering the 2018 pick for Teague in 2015, but the Hawks thought the pick was too far out).
We're in a good position with the draft now. I hope like hell we get a stud this year and next year, too. But to act like this was all part of Phil's master plan is a little much. It's a contingency plan. And I'm happy we're finally doing it - it's the ONLY way to build a team, imho. We need two years of good picks and then maybe look at Free Agency in 2018 summer.
I agree with all of this but in Phils defense I think there was a lot of pressure to compete this year and last year with the amount of money we're paying Melo as well as his limited prime years. He made some moves and put together a team that could compete and win, albeit rarely, against any team in the league on a given night. With the salary cap going up I don't think Noah's contract is quite as bad as it appears and Lee is a good player with a good salary for the future as a starter or stud bench player. We've devoloped and discovered some good talent and glue guys to fill in some roles with KP and who we draft this year being the main future focus. And who knows, on a functional two way team Melo will likely be a lot better at team defense and ball movement.
He got guys for Melo. Everyone knows Phil asked Melo if they were moving fast enough. Maybe its Melo. Maybe its the roster Phil built. There has been a tear down and thats OK. The trades have been below average for sure. Even if guys like NDour, Plumlee, Randal or Baker never pan they show a good crop of guys to bring in and look at. I dont see us over focusing on one type of player. Thats been part of the problem.. Phil has failed to assemble and fitting parts. Truly a clumsy roster! But I do remain patient because I also see a commitment to build here. The had Melo. Worth a shot. No picks were spent in that shot. Next phase. I dont think its any more complicated.
That's fair - as long as we're committed to the next phase. Phil hasn't actually said anything about the state of the Knicks since September. I'd like to see word come down to start playing the young guys more and actually seeing what we have in guys like Randle and Kuz and Plumlee. I'll be very curious to hear what Phil has to say about this year after the season is over. I'm assuming he will address the media in mid April after exit interviews. Backing into a rebuild isn't the worst thing. And as many of us admit - that's what we need. Probably at least two to three years of being young and kinda bad and getting good picks in 2017, 18 and even 19. That clearly should be the plan. But unless Phil was performing a three year Jedi mind trick, I think it's fair to say that was not his plan coming in.
I do think Phil is more old school where they didnt talk about this stuff. He's from a time before the internet rumor mills and feeling of constant transparency and clearly he's got some adjustments to make there.
That being said I think your phrase of backing into a rebuild is perfect. He's had 1 first rounder in the first 3 years right? He had Melo and some other pieces here (which he made poor trades with). It made sense to take a shot and what did that shot cost us? Grant? Lopez? Possibly a bad contract with Noah? Those arent things that set franchises back though... not being able to bring in lottery quality talent after losing does.
So while MANY of Phils moves have not been good I dont see a clueless GM here. I see a GM clearly trying to get a pipeline and system built here. Phil has struggled no doubt... but many have used this season as an example of how clueless Phil is based on the fact that he thought this would be a playoff roster. Only thing is Phil did not double down on his mistakes despite opportunity. And if he did think this would be a successful group he didnt think it so much as to use any future asset (aside from possible cap space) to build this team. I look at every guy on this roster and I am good with the type of guys he's brought in with the exception of Melo (who was already here) and Rose (who's commitment was a 1 season tryout). So my overall perspective continues to be upbeat. My 2c
I agree with what you're saying about not having picks in 2014 and 2016. That obviously wasn't Phil's fault. I do think he could've held out for a pick in the Shump/JR trade and also the Tyson trade (or maybe Jae Crowder - a promising young piece). Or stuck with either Hardaway or Grant longer. Hey, his options were extremely limited. But to be fair, we've heard from around the league that Phil does not really talk to most other GMs and opposing GMs don't even know who to call on trades sometimes. Phil has not done great there. But I concede that not having picks two of his three years here has been a killer. I am deeply thankful he hasn't moved further picks away. And I do think he could talk a little more frequently in public. Walsh did. I think that's why people overreact to his cryptic tweets and things like Rosen slamming Melo - it reads like Phil's commentary on the team.
Anyway - we all want the same damn thing. The Knicks to be good. I think we pretty much all agree that it has to be through the draft now. As recently as summer of 2015 people were saying we could get Draymond Green or Danny Green or LaMarcus Aldridge or Deandre Jordan. Heck even last summer people were saying maybe we could get Nic Batum. I'm glad we're past the point of believing a magic elixir is coming via free agency. I just want to build through the draft. Maybe try to add a piece here or there through free agency. But look to be really good in a few years instead of this idea that we are one move away. We're like ten moves away and we need some good luck in the draft to get there. And yeah - I'm sure every single one of us wants a good young player from the draft. Hopefully a star on KP's level? Then we can be on our way towards something real. Here's hoping.
smackeddog wrote:TripleThreat wrote:Zebo13 wrote: With the salary cap going up I don't think Noah's contract is quite as bad as it appears...As a fan of the game itself, removing any issue regarding the Knicks and my own fandom, I love Noah as a player. I do. So it pains me to say, and this is widely held consensus around the league, that Noah is the worst contract in the league right now. It's absolutely horrible.
Is it really though? What about parsons? What about Mosgov? Deng? Biyombo? Its a bad contract but at least he brings intangibles and it's over with in 3 years. I think knick fans just seem to indulge in hyperbole.
To be honest under this CBA the only really bad contracts are the 5 year max's for 30+ players, simply because you can only sign the other free agents to 4 years. this isn't like in the IT era where you were doomed for many many years.
I don't want to seem like I'm splitting hairs, also the contracts you mention are also pretty ugly.
Parson is 28. His absolute floor is a floor stretching Stretch 4. At least he can do that if nothing else goes right for him. He also doesn't have Noah's injury history. ( Better age, better shooter, albeit his AAV his higher)
Biyombo is like 24 years old. Younger and still has some hope to improve versus a likely statistical trend of decline. It's still an ugly deal but age matters.
Mozgov is ugly in a way that can't be described. His AAV is less. That's not much consolation, but every dollar counts.
Deng can at least play the wing and offer some semblance of defense. His contract too is ugly though. I'd rather have Deng right now than Noah, though both are toxic contracts.
Don't get me wrong, very plausible to call any of these the worst, but factoring in age, AAV, injury risk, minimum floor on a useful role, Noah just seems the ugliest of them all. But I get why you'd choose any of the others above him if you wanted. Though I'm not sure shifting to 2nd ugliest or 3rd ugliest changes that his contract is a millstone around the neck of this franchise, and esp after shedding STAT and Bargs after waiting so long, on big men who were bad deals the day they walked in the door, this makes it even uglier.
Zebo13 wrote:One good thing about having Noah on the roster is he's our only big that has a chance against a legit powerful low post player. Everybody else has gotten destroyed all season. Could be a good situational bench player. DEFINITELY not worth what we're paying him, but he can still have a use.
A) VORP ( Value Over Replacement Player)
B) Opportunity Cost
Can you get a veteran big man who can give you 70-75 percent of what Noah gives you in terms of production for 10-15 percent of the cost and at a shorter contract?
Whatever that replacement players cost would be, minus that from Noah's salary, the difference, what could the Knicks do with that difference in terms of cap flexibility? ( i.e. opportunity cost)
Noah is an ugly contract. It was ugly the moment it was signed. This is not a deal where the team understands the first half is strong production and the 2nd half of the contract length will face a likely decline. This is not a player getting a freak injury out of nowhere. This is an aging player, without a modern skill set to age well ( i.e. shooting a three pointer effectively) with an injury history who chews up a ton of cap space.
Which leads into the other issue, the VALUE of minutes on the floor. This is development time that can used well or used poorly. Every minute the Knicks play Noah trying to justify his contract status, they are reducing minutes for players who might actually be able to help in the long term.
If your toilet backs up and overflows, well you'll be knee deep in crap for a day. It happens. It's not the end of the world. That's "not so bad" You are up to your knees in feces for FOUR YEARS, yeah, it's bad.
There is not one positive thing about the Noah signing. It's a tax on Melo's failures as a leader. It's a tax on the bad Rose trade. It's a tax on Jackson's dogmatic insistence on the Triangle. It's a tax on a team who can't even execute a simple team rebuild the right way. Noah and his contract is galvanizing example of what is toxic and wrong currently with this franchise.
On the Jeff Teague/2018 draft pick, I read from Begley that Phil Jackson was not allowing any draft pick in trade talks during the 2015-16 season. We could not trade the 2017 pick unless we got another pick back. We could trade the 2018, but we refused to.
Here's the link to an article that cleary contradicts your statement
Knicks hold on to their 2018 first-round pick.
It’s unclear how frequently the Knicks were asked for the pick in the days leading up to the trade deadline, but what is clear is that it was off limits, according to league sources familiar with the club’s thinking.
“Phil said that they weren’t dealing it,” was how one source put it.
http://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/phil-...
So straight from one of the guys who covers Knicks day to day, in both pursuits of Rubio and Teague, Phil refused to offer the first round pick.
I agree that the current team has hurt KP's development a little. That's from a losing perspective and bad defensive culture than anything else. That to me is not because of the system they play. It's the overall talent not meshing with KP and also KP himself not putting in the work on the important aspect of his post game. KP is clearly a hard worker, and he and Willy are my 2 favorite players on the team, but KP did not work enough on his post game. He's also injured alot this season, hurting his rhythm. It all began with the achilles for KP. Once that happened, he has never gotten back to peak form. Same thing happened to him in the rookie season. Great start, middle hit a wall and injuries then regrouped and finished solid.
KP needs to put in work on his post game (or basically his game on shooting over smalls in 1 on 1 situation) and he needs to work on foul trouble. These two things are on him, not anyone else. Playing with Melo and Rose has sucked for him, but he still gets his shots off and he still gets to play pretty big minutes. I don't even think KP is ready to be the man, yet. The Knicks tried to put forth a team where KP would have a taste of the playoffs and that it would be good for his development to see what the playoffs are all about. It didn't work out, but if he had that playoff success it would be fantastic.
I still think KP will evolve into a great player if he is able to combat injury problems. The Dirk moves are all there for him. He's got to go to work this summer on his post moves and situations where he on the wing or top of the arc, shooting in an isolation over a small. He rushes those shots and doesn't take full advantage of the size right now. Then defensively, he has to work hard on his post base and defensive stance. Lots of work can be done and it's on him to put it in over the summer. Lets see what happens.
TripleThreat wrote:Zebo13 wrote:One good thing about having Noah on the roster is he's our only big that has a chance against a legit powerful low post player. Everybody else has gotten destroyed all season. Could be a good situational bench player. DEFINITELY not worth what we're paying him, but he can still have a use.
A) VORP ( Value Over Replacement Player)B) Opportunity Cost
Can you get a veteran big man who can give you 70-75 percent of what Noah gives you in terms of production for 10-15 percent of the cost and at a shorter contract?
Whatever that replacement players cost would be, minus that from Noah's salary, the difference, what could the Knicks do with that difference in terms of cap flexibility? ( i.e. opportunity cost)
Noah is an ugly contract. It was ugly the moment it was signed. This is not a deal where the team understands the first half is strong production and the 2nd half of the contract length will face a likely decline. This is not a player getting a freak injury out of nowhere. This is an aging player, without a modern skill set to age well ( i.e. shooting a three pointer effectively) with an injury history who chews up a ton of cap space.
Which leads into the other issue, the VALUE of minutes on the floor. This is development time that can used well or used poorly. Every minute the Knicks play Noah trying to justify his contract status, they are reducing minutes for players who might actually be able to help in the long term.
If your toilet backs up and overflows, well you'll be knee deep in crap for a day. It happens. It's not the end of the world. That's "not so bad" You are up to your knees in feces for FOUR YEARS, yeah, it's bad.
There is not one positive thing about the Noah signing. It's a tax on Melo's failures as a leader. It's a tax on the bad Rose trade. It's a tax on Jackson's dogmatic insistence on the Triangle. It's a tax on a team who can't even execute a simple team rebuild the right way. Noah and his contract is galvanizing example of what is toxic and wrong currently with this franchise.
Nice story guy. My favorite part is "simple team rebuild". There's nothing simple about it. There are a few execs in the NBA that have excelled at it but it's a lot easier said than done. I understand that the Noah signing was awful. You can go on and on, and have, about why it wasn't a good signing. We had two defensive deficient starters and they thought Noah might be some semblance of who he once was to counter that. It didn't work out. I don't think our future is in shambles because of one contract. We have studs with big potential that we're paying peanuts to possibly balance that. Sure, I wish we wouldn't have signed Noah, but belly aching about it isn't gonna make it more tolerable or fun to watch. Can't quite tell if you're a Knicks fan or just a fan of hearing yourself talk. 
Good writing nonetheless.
nyknickzingis wrote:Second on KP.I agree that the current team has hurt KP's development a little. That's from a losing perspective and bad defensive culture than anything else. That to me is not because of the system they play. It's the overall talent not meshing with KP and also KP himself not putting in the work on the important aspect of his post game. KP is clearly a hard worker, and he and Willy are my 2 favorite players on the team, but KP did not work enough on his post game. He's also injured alot this season, hurting his rhythm. It all began with the achilles for KP. Once that happened, he has never gotten back to peak form. Same thing happened to him in the rookie season. Great start, middle hit a wall and injuries then regrouped and finished solid.
KP needs to put in work on his post game (or basically his game on shooting over smalls in 1 on 1 situation) and he needs to work on foul trouble. These two things are on him, not anyone else. Playing with Melo and Rose has sucked for him, but he still gets his shots off and he still gets to play pretty big minutes. I don't even think KP is ready to be the man, yet. The Knicks tried to put forth a team where KP would have a taste of the playoffs and that it would be good for his development to see what the playoffs are all about. It didn't work out, but if he had that playoff success it would be fantastic.
I still think KP will evolve into a great player if he is able to combat injury problems. The Dirk moves are all there for him. He's got to go to work this summer on his post moves and situations where he on the wing or top of the arc, shooting in an isolation over a small. He rushes those shots and doesn't take full advantage of the size right now. Then defensively, he has to work hard on his post base and defensive stance. Lots of work can be done and it's on him to put it in over the summer. Lets see what happens.
Agree 100%