CrushAlot wrote:I think you are way off with your value for 2 spots.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NBA_draft
Except it's not two spots just in a vacuum. When there is a clear hard line between the "tiers" of draft value, crossing that threshold is going to be expensive. In the 2014 draft, Aaron Gordon was the 4th pick, "just two picks" away is Jabari Parker. And there was enough buzz where it might not have been Andrew Wiggins, but Parker taken first, which would have made Wiggins the 2nd overall pick.
The jump from Gordon to Wiggins is tremendous. The jump from Gordon to Parker is also huge ( albeit Parker has had a ton of injury problems, but you can't predict that in 2014.)
This happened in the same draft....
Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers trade[10]
Orlando acquired draft rights to 10th pick Elfrid Payton
Philadelphia 76ers acquired draft rights to 12th pick Dario Šarić, a 2015 second-round pick and a future first-round pick
To move up TWO SLOTS, the cost was a 2nd rounder and a future first rounder, and we are talking a Tier 4 to Tier 3 type jump, not one moving into the top area of the draft lottery. Very very few teams move up or down in the NBA draft, and at the very top, it's extremely rare. It just doesn't happen very often but it's always expensive.
If a team moved from 4th overall to 2nd overall, in a draft where it's likely Ball and Fultz will create their own "Tier 1", and the cost to move up is only a mid 2nd round pick, someone is going to get fired. It would be so lopsided against one team in a trade that odds are the GM who got fired would need to be escorted out of the city via armed guard. People threaten to kill the college kicker on university teams who pooch a last second field goal, do you know the kind of backlash would happen if a team gave up a potential franchise player for the addition of just a 2nd round pick?
Same thing happens in the NFL, the top QB prospects go in the top few picks of the draft, the value of those first and second overall picks are huge. The Skins gave up a crap ton to move up to draft RG3. Then the Rams gave up a crap ton to draft Jared Goff.
The top Tier 1 in any NBA draft is only going to be 2-3 players deep. In the Shaq draft, the third overall pick was Christian Laettner. You think there wasn't a massive leap to move one or two slots to get Shaq or Alonzo Mourning? At the 4th pick, any team there is likely to head up Tier 2 in the first round. Which is where you get an Aaron Gordon or a Julius Randle type of player. Randle could have easily gone 4th, or Smart could have gone 4th, which indicates that those class of players are in Tier 2.
If you are deep into the late 2nd round, then yes, "just two slots" might actually be that, just two slots. But at the top of the lottery, it's an entirely different animal.
Could it be possible that 5-6 guys don't separate themselves from the pack and form a massive Tier 1? It's possible in theory, but NBA Draft history doesn't support that. But let's say it's possible, then the same reason why the another team would want to trade back IS THE SAME REASON WHY THE KNICKS WOULD NOT WANT TO TRADE UP. Why do that? The Lakers were in Tier 2 in the 2014 draft, they took Randle with the 7th pick. If Randle was gone, and they took Smart, then OK, that's that. But they were not going to spend assets to move up one or two slots to just get Randle.
Mocks are going to shift for various reasons up until the draft. ( Part of it is gamesmanship by front offices and agents to either drive up their client appeal or throw shade on who a team really likes...) But odds are a few big men will rise late in the process ( they always do due to positional value) and Ball and Fultz will still likely be the 1 and 2 picks in their own tier. Teams at the top are looking for franchise players, they pick the best talent they can get and then will figure out the rest later. "Need" based drafting does happen, but who does it happen for? Established teams who have core rosters and limited holes in most cases, these are teams usually not picking at the top of the lottery. Positional fit is never totally ignored, but no one is going to pass on a potential franchise player because it forms a redundancy on their roster. You think the Heat were going to turn down Chris Bosh because he was basically a small forward joining two other players who were basically small forwards? ( Wade and LBJ)
Market forces operate on EVERYTHING. The jobs or career people here have. To hire you or to give you opportunity, it means someone else is not getting that chance or slot. Lots of guys here are married, you think there isn't a "market" interplay between her giving up sex and the guy giving up commitment based on both sides trying to leverage the best they can get in terms of socially accepted market value? Guys here can ignore market forces and market tendencies at work, but they are useful because they ARE PREDICTIVE. Years ago, I said trade Melo and do it fast, because like Herschel Walker in Dallas, by the time draft assets develop to the point to do something for the Knicks, Melo will be aging and lose his trade value, he doesn't fit the "timeline" of how the assets would fit and possible push for the playoffs/possible contention. Nixluva of course told me I was wrong, and that this "timeline" was something I was fabricating. Now it's likely nixluva would give his right arm to trade Melo off the roster. Do I have a Magic 8 ball? No, I just look at how league trends operate, how the market operates without bias into my own fandom. That the Knicks needed to trade Melo years ago was apparent like a giant neon flashing sign. But like all things, the MARKET CORRECTS ITSELF. Melos situation reverted to the predictive situation at hand, given how sports teams practically rebuild and factoring the limitations of how the NBA talent pool operates. The "market" doesn't give a sh*t how you feel about anything. It doesn't care about your fandom, it doesn't care about scenarios where 100 things need to line up just right to function.
Where the gulf in talent is the widest, that's where the toll to cross costs the most in blood.
