Knicks · Draft Tiers (page 1)

I went up to Tier 3. Basically the message is simple. This draft is loaded with all-star caliber players. We are in a great spot at #8. Most drafts don't have tier 2 talent available at the 8th pick, but we will. From ESPN Chad Ford.
---------------------------------------

Is this the best NBA draft in a decade or more? Our tier system is loaded with prospects in the top two tiers, challenging some of the best drafts in recent memory.

Big Boards, top 100s and mock drafts are the most efficient way to communicate what I'm hearing from NBA scouts, general managers and the like. Those formats have their place, but there is another format I prefer -- draft tiers.

Ranking players in a single-file sequence is problematic, and for the last decade, most NBA teams have gotten away from the practice. That's also what makes mock drafts so challenging.

In many cases, there is not a consensus on a draft prospect. Two scouts can watch the same player in the same game and come to wildly different evaluations about a player. Two GMs can sit with the same player in an interview and walk away with different impressions about who the player really is. Two analytical models, both purporting to offer a more objective look at a player through his statistics can spit out radically different conclusions.

Each team may have 10 to 15 voices in the room advocating for different things. Many teams don't decide until draft day who they'll take.

This year is no exception. While Markelle Fultz has been No. 1 on our Big Board most of the year, Josh Jackson, Lonzo Ball, De'Aaron Fox and Jayson Tatum have strong advocates. Few teams agree what order the next five or six players should go. Get even further down in the draft and the disparity between how teams rank players grows.

To make sense of all this, I've chronicled a draft ranking -- employed by a number of teams -- called the tier system.

In the tier system, teams group players based on overall talent. Then the teams rank the players in each tier based on team need. This system allows teams to draft not only the best player available, but also the player who best fits a team's individual needs.

A more detailed explanation of how the tier system works can be found here.

Note: Players in each tier are listed alphabetically.

Tier 1 (Potential superstars)

Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA
Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington

2017 NBA draft

Get ready for Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and the 2017 draft, with analysis from Chad Ford and other ESPN experts.

Last draft we had just one player in this category: Ben Simmons. The year before that, Karl-Anthony Towns was the only player here.

This category is usually reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars or franchise players. Only six other players since we started this column in 2009 -- Blake Griffin, John Wall, Anthony Davis, Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker -- have been ranked in this slot.

Fultz was unanimously nominated for tier 1 by the NBA scouts and executives I polled for this piece. Ball was more polarizing for sure, but he still got a majority of the votes for tier 1.

Three other players -- Josh Jackson, De'Aaron Fox and Jayson Tatum -- received votes for tier 1.

Tier 2 (All-Star potential)

De'Aaron Fox, PG, Fr., Kentucky
Jonathan Isaac, F, Fr., Florida State
Josh Jackson, G/F, Fr., Kansas
Lauri Markkanen, PF, Fr., Arizona
Malik Monk, G, Fr., Kentucky
Frank Ntilikina, PG, France
Dennis Smith, PG, Fr., North Carolina State
Jayson Tatum, F, Fr., Duke

This is the largest tier 2 we've ever had. This tier is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player in tier 2 has a weakness that some teams believe will keep him from being a superstar.

In Fox and Jackson's case, it's the lack of a consistent jumper. Isaac needs to add strength and find a position. Markkanen and Monk are too one-dimensional right now. Smith and Tatum might be too selfish with the ball. Ntilikina isn't an elite athlete.

Fox, Jackson and Tatum all received only tier 1 and tier 2 votes. Isaac, Monk and Smith all were unanimous in tier 2. Markkanen and Ntilikina had some tier 3 votes, but the majority were tier 2. Zach Collins received a lot of votes in tier 2, but just barely missed the cut.

Having 10 players in the first two tiers is extraordinary for a draft class.

Tier 3 (NBA starters)

OG Anunoby, F, So., Indiana
Zach Collins, F/C, Fr., Gonzaga
Harry Giles, PF, Fr., Duke
Luke Kennard, G, So., Duke
Donovan Mitchell, G, So., Louisville

This is a solid tier 3, but with the exception of Zach Collins, most teams see a significant drop-off here. This tier is usually reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers.

Having 15 players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft. The closest we got was in 2014 when we had 12 players in the top three tiers. Of this group, Collins was the only player not to receive tier 4 votes, so the consensus breaks down at this point.

The biggest issue for scouts was ranking Anunoby and Giles. Both have had significant knee injuries. Giles is actually healed and ready to play, but teams are worried because he has had two major knee surgeries and didn't look nearly as explosive at Duke last season. Anunoby hurt his knee in January and could miss his rookie season.

Based on sheer talent, virtually every scout and front office executive had Giles as either a tier 1 or tier 2 prospect. And all but one had Anunoby as a tier 2 guy. If they get healthy, they're steals in tier 3. But their previous injuries put a cloud over their draft stock.

It does seem like a strong draft.
However KP's draft was outstanding as well.

Likely Superstars:
Towns

Likely All-Stars:
Porzingis
Booker
Russell

Likely 3rd or 4th option Starters:
Okafor
Myles Turner
Hernangomez
Mudiay
Oubre Jr.

Great bench players:
Nance Jr.
Kaminsky
Winslow
Portis
Harrell

I think Phil is smart in that he knows which draft is better to get into and he knows this one and the 2015 draft were extra good. He's been highly invested in both drafts.

For 2017, I think it is way too early to say anything but my guess is there will be no superstars in this one. I don't think Fultz is of that level and Ball has weaknesses even though he is extremely special as a passer. I think this 2017 draft will be loaded with players closer to the level of Booker and Russell, than it will be to Towns or even Porzingis. I don't see a single player in this draft I would trade Porzingis straight up for, and that's without bias. Just based on talent. I think Boston would jump all over a KP for #1 pick trade. KP plus Boston's current talent + capspace to sign Hayward puts them into the Finals next year. That would not happen with drafting Fultz.

IMO

Superstars:
None, in this draft. No Lebron, Durant, Curry, Harden, Westbrook level player. No Anthony Davis or KAT or even Porzingis kind of talet (Even though KP is not a superstar, talent wise he is one of the 10 most talented players in the league).

Likely all-stars to quality starters:

Fultz
Ball
Tatum
Monk
DSJ
Isaac
Jackson

Quality starters to Great Bench players:

Ntilikina
Lauri
Mitchell
Kennard
Collins
Justin Jackson + quite a few more.

I think we will see quite a few all-stars in this draft but where this draft will prove to be really good is how many "good but not great" players come out of it. That is where we gotta hope someone who is there at 8 and we take him as a real shot at being an all-star down the road. It's for that reason, I tend to be willing to take a chance on Monk or DSJ (if he is medically cleared) over Nti. I love Nti's defensive potential and potential on offense, but without workouts, without really seeing what he can do in person, I hope the Knicks draft a more sure thing in Monk or DSJ.

We have Willy and KP. Add Monk or DSJ, you have a real big 3 right away, IMO. No need to wait, those 3 could right away run an offense where KP/Monk or DSJ/Willy are your big 3. Trade Melo for draft pick and a young defensive wing, and you have a young core right away working on playing the right way and developing. As much as I like Nti's potential, his downside is the riskiest. I did not have the same feeling with KP. I felt KP's downside was that he'd be a stretch 4 or a more athletic Bargnani, which was still a damn good starter. With Nti, I'm worried his downside will be that he'll be coming off the bench or be a secondary guard to another creator. Too much of a role player. We need a young talented guard that can play with KP/Willy, develop with them over the next 5 years.

Funny thing is if we keep Melo, or won't trade him this year, then drafting Nti makes more sense. With Melo's ability to create, we don't need a traditional PG as much and Nti's defense, long arms, abilities can help and complement Melo/KP much more than Rose ever could.

nyknickzingis wrote:It does seem like a strong draft.
However KP's draft was outstanding as well.

Likely Superstars:
Towns

Likely All-Stars:
Porzingis
Booker
Russell

Likely 3rd or 4th option Starters:
Okafor
Myles Turner
Hernangomez
Mudiay
Oubre Jr.

Great bench players:
Nance Jr.
Kaminsky
Winslow
Portis
Harrell

I think Phil is smart in that he knows which draft is better to get into and he knows this one and the 2015 draft were extra good. He's been highly invested in both drafts.

For 2017, I think it is way too early to say anything but my guess is there will be no superstars in this one. I don't think Fultz is of that level and Ball has weaknesses even though he is extremely special as a passer. I think this 2017 draft will be loaded with players closer to the level of Booker and Russell, than it will be to Towns or even Porzingis. I don't see a single player in this draft I would trade Porzingis straight up for, and that's without bias. Just based on talent. I think Boston would jump all over a KP for #1 pick trade. KP plus Boston's current talent + capspace to sign Hayward puts them into the Finals next year. That would not happen with drafting Fultz.

IMO

Superstars:
None, in this draft. No Lebron, Durant, Curry, Harden, Westbrook level player. No Anthony Davis or KAT or even Porzingis kind of talet (Even though KP is not a superstar, talent wise he is one of the 10 most talented players in the league).

Likely all-stars to quality starters:

Fultz
Ball
Tatum
Monk
DSJ
Isaac
Jackson

Quality starters to Great Bench players:

Ntilikina
Lauri
Mitchell
Kennard
Collins
Justin Jackson + quite a few more.

I think we will see quite a few all-stars in this draft but where this draft will prove to be really good is how many "good but not great" players come out of it. That is where we gotta hope someone who is there at 8 and we take him as a real shot at being an all-star down the road. It's for that reason, I tend to be willing to take a chance on Monk or DSJ (if he is medically cleared) over Nti. I love Nti's defensive potential and potential on offense, but without workouts, without really seeing what he can do in person, I hope the Knicks draft a more sure thing in Monk or DSJ.

We have Willy and KP. Add Monk or DSJ, you have a real big 3 right away, IMO. No need to wait, those 3 could right away run an offense where KP/Monk or DSJ/Willy are your big 3. Trade Melo for draft pick and a young defensive wing, and you have a young core right away working on playing the right way and developing. As much as I like Nti's potential, his downside is the riskiest. I did not have the same feeling with KP. I felt KP's downside was that he'd be a stretch 4 or a more athletic Bargnani, which was still a damn good starter. With Nti, I'm worried his downside will be that he'll be coming off the bench or be a secondary guard to another creator. Too much of a role player. We need a young talented guard that can play with KP/Willy, develop with them over the next 5 years.

Funny thing is if we keep Melo, or won't trade him this year, then drafting Nti makes more sense. With Melo's ability to create, we don't need a traditional PG as much and Nti's defense, long arms, abilities can help and complement Melo/KP much more than Rose ever could.

I agree. 2015 was a loaded draft as well. This draft might have the most all-star potential players in this century, but no Towns or KP potential level. Still a great opportunity for us. Thankfully we have a pick. Better this year than last.

Draft Tears........

Id take Josh Jackson first followed by Ball than Fultz Tatum Fox

nyknickzingis wrote:I think Phil is smart in that he knows which draft is better to get into and he knows this one and the 2015 draft were extra good. He's been highly invested in both drafts.

I don't think Phil planned this. I think it just (fortunately) worked out that way.

BRIGGS wrote:Id take Josh Jackson first followed by Ball than Fultz Tatum Fox

Agree on JJ. Now more than ever you need defense and players that make other players better. Josh Jackson is the closest prospect to Pippen Ive seen ever.

De'Aaron Fox is going to be the star of this draft.

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:I think Phil is smart in that he knows which draft is better to get into and he knows this one and the 2015 draft were extra good. He's been highly invested in both drafts.

I don't think Phil planned this. I think it just (fortunately) worked out that way.

He not only traded for a second pick in the 2015 draft, he also had traded for a second round pick, Willy Hernangomez.
If that's not scouting and doing the work, I don't know what is.

Same for this one, seems he is really active into getting a few players from this draft, not just one with the lottery pick.

fishmike wrote:

BRIGGS wrote:Id take Josh Jackson first followed by Ball than Fultz Tatum Fox

Agree on JJ. Now more than ever you need defense and players that make other players better. Josh Jackson is the closest prospect to Pippen Ive seen ever.

Defense and ball movement are hugely important. It can't be forgotten though, that the 3 best teams this season were also the 3 best 3pt shooting teams. That isn't a coincidence. The Knicks were below average in that category. The more shooting you have, the more successful you will be in today's game.

nyknickzingis wrote:

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:I think Phil is smart in that he knows which draft is better to get into and he knows this one and the 2015 draft were extra good. He's been highly invested in both drafts.

I don't think Phil planned this. I think it just (fortunately) worked out that way.

He not only traded for a second pick in the 2015 draft, he also had traded for a second round pick, Willy Hernangomez.
If that's not scouting and doing the work, I don't know what is.

Same for this one, seems he is really active into getting a few players from this draft, not just one with the lottery pick.

Yeah, that makes sense regarding the extra picks. But I don't think he was expecting to be in the lottery this year.

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:I think Phil is smart in that he knows which draft is better to get into and he knows this one and the 2015 draft were extra good. He's been highly invested in both drafts.

I don't think Phil planned this. I think it just (fortunately) worked out that way.

He not only traded for a second pick in the 2015 draft, he also had traded for a second round pick, Willy Hernangomez.
If that's not scouting and doing the work, I don't know what is.

Same for this one, seems he is really active into getting a few players from this draft, not just one with the lottery pick.

Yeah, that makes sense regarding the extra picks. But I don't think he was expecting to be in the lottery this year.

Oh that's for sure. He was hoping to get a playoff run going with Melo/Rose.
I think he didn't trade his picks in any trade talk for a reason though. He knows the draft is where NY can really change the landscape of their franchise. We have two really good pieces in KP and Willy. We likely add Ntilikina to that this summer. We need to stay patient and keep drafting well. If KP peaks in 2 years I think there will be young all-star free agents who want to come to the Knicks to play with KP and a team that is on the rise. We have to develop KP and Willy well though. No more F ups, Work with them on defense. Get their role on offense defined. Too much shifting of roles for KP last year.

I'm actually positive about the Knicks 2018 and beyond. These last few years and then next year will/was tough. After 2018 though I think we are sitting pretty good compared to many teams who are spending like lunatics and not drafting well.

nyknickzingis wrote:

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:I think Phil is smart in that he knows which draft is better to get into and he knows this one and the 2015 draft were extra good. He's been highly invested in both drafts.

I don't think Phil planned this. I think it just (fortunately) worked out that way.

He not only traded for a second pick in the 2015 draft, he also had traded for a second round pick, Willy Hernangomez.
If that's not scouting and doing the work, I don't know what is.

Same for this one, seems he is really active into getting a few players from this draft, not just one with the lottery pick.

Phil is a old senile 71 yrs of age .. it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why Phil grabbed Willy in the draft .. Willy and KP were Latvian teammates, plus Willy receive 3 to 4 times the amount of playing-time than KP receive on the team. KP probably would have got drafted in the 2nd round if Phil did not select him. Knicks fans were right for booing KP on draft night (He deserve every BOO!).
Knick fans had to wait till the NBA summer games to see some footage of KP on the court.
KP showed he could dunk rebound block a shot and hit a 3 ball shot once in a while, and Knick media fans made him into a star.
That's right i mention it .. only Knicks Fans see or want to see a star in KP, myself included.
KP B.ball IQ is so low that his once in a while highlights are not impressive any more, especially when his performance has shown repeatedly in two seasons that KP don't know the first thing about winning a ball game .. KP is all HYPE.
I looked at the strength/weakness in over 20 of the 2017 draft class prospects .. I would trade KP asap for any one of the 20 prospects i watch that will be in the 2017 draft class.

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:I think Phil is smart in that he knows which draft is better to get into and he knows this one and the 2015 draft were extra good. He's been highly invested in both drafts.

I don't think Phil planned this. I think it just (fortunately) worked out that way.

He not only traded for a second pick in the 2015 draft, he also had traded for a second round pick, Willy Hernangomez.
If that's not scouting and doing the work, I don't know what is.

Same for this one, seems he is really active into getting a few players from this draft, not just one with the lottery pick.

Yeah, that makes sense regarding the extra picks. But I don't think he was expecting to be in the lottery this year.

Expecting and planning in the event he did aren't mutually exclusive. Phil has been doing a dance of trying to win but planning for Lottery. This can't be disputed.

nyknickzingis wrote:

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:I think Phil is smart in that he knows which draft is better to get into and he knows this one and the 2015 draft were extra good. He's been highly invested in both drafts.

I don't think Phil planned this. I think it just (fortunately) worked out that way.

He not only traded for a second pick in the 2015 draft, he also had traded for a second round pick, Willy Hernangomez.
If that's not scouting and doing the work, I don't know what is.

Same for this one, seems he is really active into getting a few players from this draft, not just one with the lottery pick.

Yeah, that makes sense regarding the extra picks. But I don't think he was expecting to be in the lottery this year.

Oh that's for sure. He was hoping to get a playoff run going with Melo/Rose.
I think he didn't trade his picks in any trade talk for a reason though. He knows the draft is where NY can really change the landscape of their franchise. We have two really good pieces in KP and Willy. We likely add Ntilikina to that this summer. We need to stay patient and keep drafting well. If KP peaks in 2 years I think there will be young all-star free agents who want to come to the Knicks to play with KP and a team that is on the rise. We have to develop KP and Willy well though. No more F ups, Work with them on defense. Get their role on offense defined. Too much shifting of roles for KP last year.

I'm actually positive about the Knicks 2018 and beyond. These last few years and then next year will/was tough. After 2018 though I think we are sitting pretty good compared to many teams who are spending like lunatics and not drafting well.

Phil and a lot of Knick fans dont know how to develop KP bcuz they dont know what position to develop KP for ....
Could KP perform as a center? No! KP dont know how to rebound n pass or catch n pass, or stay close to the paint area.
Could KP perform as a PF? Not the way he been performing the past two seasons.
Could KP perform as a SF? at 7.3 height and injury prone, i doubt it

Kemet wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:I think Phil is smart in that he knows which draft is better to get into and he knows this one and the 2015 draft were extra good. He's been highly invested in both drafts.

I don't think Phil planned this. I think it just (fortunately) worked out that way.

He not only traded for a second pick in the 2015 draft, he also had traded for a second round pick, Willy Hernangomez.
If that's not scouting and doing the work, I don't know what is.

Same for this one, seems he is really active into getting a few players from this draft, not just one with the lottery pick.

Yeah, that makes sense regarding the extra picks. But I don't think he was expecting to be in the lottery this year.

Oh that's for sure. He was hoping to get a playoff run going with Melo/Rose.
I think he didn't trade his picks in any trade talk for a reason though. He knows the draft is where NY can really change the landscape of their franchise. We have two really good pieces in KP and Willy. We likely add Ntilikina to that this summer. We need to stay patient and keep drafting well. If KP peaks in 2 years I think there will be young all-star free agents who want to come to the Knicks to play with KP and a team that is on the rise. We have to develop KP and Willy well though. No more F ups, Work with them on defense. Get their role on offense defined. Too much shifting of roles for KP last year.

I'm actually positive about the Knicks 2018 and beyond. These last few years and then next year will/was tough. After 2018 though I think we are sitting pretty good compared to many teams who are spending like lunatics and not drafting well.

Phil and a lot of Knick fans dont know how to develop KP bcuz they dont know what position to develop KP for ....
Could KP perform as a center? No! KP dont know how to rebound n pass or catch n pass, or stay close to the paint area.
Could KP perform as a PF? Not the way he been performing the past two seasons.
Could KP perform as a SF? at 7.3 height and injury prone, i doubt it

Than lets make an new position for KP, lets say 4.5 or 3.4 ? :)

Kemet wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:I think Phil is smart in that he knows which draft is better to get into and he knows this one and the 2015 draft were extra good. He's been highly invested in both drafts.

I don't think Phil planned this. I think it just (fortunately) worked out that way.

He not only traded for a second pick in the 2015 draft, he also had traded for a second round pick, Willy Hernangomez.
If that's not scouting and doing the work, I don't know what is.

Same for this one, seems he is really active into getting a few players from this draft, not just one with the lottery pick.

Phil is a old senile 71 yrs of age .. it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why Phil grabbed Willy in the draft .. Willy and KP were Latvian teammates, plus Willy receive 3 to 4 times the amount of playing-time than KP receive on the team. KP probably would have got drafted in the 2nd round if Phil did not select him. Knicks fans were right for booing KP on draft night (He deserve every BOO!).
Knick fans had to wait till the NBA summer games to see some footage of KP on the court.
KP showed he could dunk rebound block a shot and hit a 3 ball shot once in a while, and Knick media fans made him into a star.
That's right i mention it .. only Knicks Fans see or want to see a star in KP, myself included.
KP B.ball IQ is so low that his once in a while highlights are not impressive any more, especially when his performance has shown repeatedly in two seasons that KP don't know the first thing about winning a ball game .. KP is all HYPE.
I looked at the strength/weakness in over 20 of the 2017 draft class prospects .. I would trade KP asap for any one of the 20 prospects i watch that will be in the 2017 draft class.

ummm ok

Kemet wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:

Welpee wrote:

nyknickzingis wrote:I think Phil is smart in that he knows which draft is better to get into and he knows this one and the 2015 draft were extra good. He's been highly invested in both drafts.

I don't think Phil planned this. I think it just (fortunately) worked out that way.

He not only traded for a second pick in the 2015 draft, he also had traded for a second round pick, Willy Hernangomez.
If that's not scouting and doing the work, I don't know what is.

Same for this one, seems he is really active into getting a few players from this draft, not just one with the lottery pick.

Yeah, that makes sense regarding the extra picks. But I don't think he was expecting to be in the lottery this year.

Oh that's for sure. He was hoping to get a playoff run going with Melo/Rose.
I think he didn't trade his picks in any trade talk for a reason though. He knows the draft is where NY can really change the landscape of their franchise. We have two really good pieces in KP and Willy. We likely add Ntilikina to that this summer. We need to stay patient and keep drafting well. If KP peaks in 2 years I think there will be young all-star free agents who want to come to the Knicks to play with KP and a team that is on the rise. We have to develop KP and Willy well though. No more F ups, Work with them on defense. Get their role on offense defined. Too much shifting of roles for KP last year.

I'm actually positive about the Knicks 2018 and beyond. These last few years and then next year will/was tough. After 2018 though I think we are sitting pretty good compared to many teams who are spending like lunatics and not drafting well.

Phil and a lot of Knick fans dont know how to develop KP bcuz they dont know what position to develop KP for ....
Could KP perform as a center? No! KP dont know how to rebound n pass or catch n pass, or stay close to the paint area.
Could KP perform as a PF? Not the way he been performing the past two seasons.
Could KP perform as a SF? at 7.3 height and injury prone, i doubt it

KP can absolutely play the 5 Channing Frye and Tristan Thompson are the centers on the Cavs. Many teams play small ball 5's , KP is a fantastic small ball 5. If we play against beefer teams use Willy and Noah more minutes. Why does a lineup have to be the same 9 guys for the same minutes?