Knicks · Vegas counting us down and out AGAIN (page 3)

Knickoftime wrote:

knicks1248 wrote:I do see EARLY, i know when to cut my losses when i see BS on the horizon. The projections are not great by anyone, fans, media, whoever. Too much melo drama, kp drama, high profile players with off court drama.

This is where you continue to make your mistake, which is somewhat inexplicable because it's been pointed out to you many times.

Most of the projections - as you cite - are based on roster analysis computer models.

"Drama", "trade rumors" and systems don't factor in.

Sources like Pelton, ESPN, Fivethiryeight, and Vegas oddsmakers aren't raising their projections if the Knicks have a quiet focused camp.

Direct question: Do You understand that, right?

How exactly do you think this season will pay out based on how we're going in?

knicks1248 wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

knicks1248 wrote:I do see EARLY, i know when to cut my losses when i see BS on the horizon. The projections are not great by anyone, fans, media, whoever. Too much melo drama, kp drama, high profile players with off court drama.

This is where you continue to make your mistake, which is somewhat inexplicable because it's been pointed out to you many times.

Most of the projections - as you cite - are based on roster analysis computer models.

"Drama", "trade rumors" and systems don't factor in.

Sources like Pelton, ESPN, Fivethiryeight, and Vegas oddsmakers aren't raising their projections if the Knicks have a quiet focused camp.

Direct question: Do You understand that, right?

How exactly do you think this season will pay out based on how we're going in?

Always fun when a question is answered with a question.

At a sports fan who can't turn off observing and remembering in favor of hoping, the truth is I have no idea how the seasons going to play out exactly.

I can say the annual preseason projection systems that don't factor in all the narrative issues you raised have been much more accurate than my annual fan-based, best-case-scenario optimism (they haven't sniffed 40 wins and four seasons), so I'm done second-guessing them.

Do I think if a lot of things go right the Knicks can outpace projections? Sure, the problem is its not very often in professional sports that most of the things that need you're right do.

knicks1248 wrote: We lose more because of distractions and inconsistencies and not hiring the right people for the job, or putting people in the wrong roles, and that's president down to player.

Statistical modeling in these kind of projections will factor in

- Age of current roster and the likelihood of injury ( factoring each players past injury history)
- Number of back to backs, and strength of schedule on back end games and whether those games are on the road or at home
- Projections in players development or regression, based on age, injury history and previous usage
- Officiating crew in place, if that data is available or modeled to account for likelihood of one crew versus another
- Ball security, efficiency with less than 5 seconds on the shot clock, free throw shooting percentage
- Historical trends between two specific teams
- Coaching record and trends by the standing head coach in place

It's a long long long laundry of list of things that get factored in all of this.

If you wanted to say the Knicks will win more than lose than projections because they will lead the entire league in having teams playing back to backs, with said team coming to the Garden and these teams will be Eastern Conference teams with losing records. ( I'm not saying this the actual case, it's a hypothetical example)

That's a COGENT argument as to why the projections could be off.

"Because I said so" is not.

These models are pretty accurate. Yes, there is often a variance of 2-5 games, but some outlier like -10 or +10 wins or losses would be extreme.

The teams likely to break projections are teams a little above the middle. The Pacers in the Granger/George/Born Ready/West/Hill/Hibbert years is an example.

There's a saying Al Davis had, before his insanity and senility - Winning is a good deodorant.

Teams don't lose because they have chaos and dirty laundry in the press. They lose because they have a lack of talent and the chaos and dirty laundry is the fallout of people either about to lose their jobs or fighting desperately to hold onto it for a few more days.

What you "feel" doesn't mean anything in terms of wins or losses. You can "feel" as you wish about your fandom, but when it comes to wins and losses, there are actual market forces at work, that operate whether you agree with them or not.

I may be wrong BUT.... yes the fact is we will take a beating this season and perhaps next as well. Yet we are a team that's building with youth and both Wiky and KP are solid pieces both of whom will be all star caliber in 2 years or less. The team however has no character yet. We are a atud scorer and SF two way stud away. The identity has to come forth and if Nitty is real say a defensive stopper 17 point 38% from 3 scorer who can dish then the movement and direction will be fine. A player comes to mind and I am blanking on his name. Played for the Hawks the past 7-8 years and as an All Star. Defensive oriented player, physically touch and a scorer. We need that type of player or Tatum type of player as Melo slowly but most assuredly disappears from the headlines and rides into A Melo brand sunset. You need 8 or 9 players. The objective for me (and probably Phil Jackson) was to build a title contender not a 1st round exit playoff team. I mean Doncic is a 6-8" orchestrator scorer, setup man, shooter and game changer. This takes patience. What I don't know is if Mills and Horny and Dolan can get it done I really ...
Yet if Nitty is better than a lot of folks think he will be then we have a nucleus and with a top 5 pick and 4 players 23 or under, we will be in a much better position than we've been in years.

It's Millsap. A high character tough player who can lock down guys but lead the team. I'm not saying Milsap now but when the time comes for us to spend on free Agenxy,a tough nose all star Leader will be what's called for. This probably won't come from KP or Wily or Nitty. A Leader by example, a shut down defender who can score inside and out. Not a 26ppg guy but someone who will inspire the team to
Get a critical stop in the 4th and create a winning culture - someone with presence who won't tolerate bull. Our Knicks are building. We've 3 guys and ThJr if Nitty ends up a player. In a guard Dominant league let's see what we've got.