jskinny35 wrote:Since it seems like the consensus is there is Zion and 2 very good/impacting players afterwards - what do we do if we land in the 2 or 3 position? Ja seems like the 2nd best talent but we already have Dennis Smith Jr, Frank, maybe Mud... not sure if we would pick him given the roster and possibility of signing a Kyrie or Kemba in free agency. If true, should we stand pat and draft next best player (eg Barret) or try to offer a player and move up? Not sure what it would take to go from 2 or 3 to pick 1. I'd give up Knox, Trier and/or Frank - but think M.Rob should be untouchable at this point. So what do people think it would take to move up?
And if so, what would people here be willing to give up to move up and draft Zion?
Depends on the Tier breakdown
For example, several drafts ago, the Tier 1 was Wiggins, Parker and Embiid. Any team picking third would grab the guy left the other two did not take. The 4 pick was Julius Randle but could have been any one of 5-6 guys in that slot. Plenty of teams not in the top three would trade to get into the third slot, no one would trade up to get to the 4th slot. This is generally where Tiers drive a hard line.
If Zion and some other player ( we don't quite know yet) comprise Tier 1, then the cost to move from 2 overall to 1 overall is expensive but not punitive. But if the Knicks get the 3rd overall and Tier 1 is two players, then the cost spikes dramatically.
Here's the other problem, the same reason you want to trade up is the same reason a team won't want to trade down. In a Tim Duncan draft, who gives a shit what anyone offers, you aren't giving up Duncan. The fact that a team will be willing to give up the overall top pick is often an indicator of
A) Lack of quality perceived
B) Something fucking bad in the players character history/situation ( gang affiliation, rapist, drug dealer, history of violence dug up that's not in the press, substance abuse, injury profile, incest, mental health glitches, etc)
There are very quiet but unpleasant rumors right now about Zion. They are not going away. They won't hit the open press. If someone wants to trade Zion, there's a reason and it won't be good, I'll leave it at that.
Given what I've been told about Zion Williamson directly, I'd say if the Knicks get the top pick, draft him and then immediately trade his ass.
A general cost structure would mean this years lottery pick and at LEAST one other future unprotected first round pick. Completely unprotected. Then likely the inbetween year ( Stepien Rule) as a pick flip. The pick flip is more dangerous in some ways than an unprotected pick because of a potential option clause ( i.e. the right to pick flip in X year, or Y year instead) Then a young player ( likely Knox)
Getting the top pick is generally a volume situation and very few teams have the asset base to go volume and still have a team left. Also cost control is going up on a smoothing scale ( problem with Fultz is he carries a 10 million -ish AAV hit right now) the past few seasons so while the salary is covered by the Rookie Scale Exception, it operates as an anchor and possibly a tax anchor if the player does not pan out.
If Zion is available, something is wrong or the cost would be punitive. He's not Tim Duncan. He's not Shaq nor LBJ. For those guys, you consider taking the hit, but not this guy.
I'll say this again. Removing physical factors and skill factors, Zion Williamson is NOT A SAFE PROSPECT.
