Knicks · Sell me on RFA Lonzo Ball over these 2 UFAs (page 1)

... no, I don't mean Conley and Lowry, who'd I'd take either in a NY minute over Ball. I don't care about timeline. Rondo helped the Lakers win a chip last year. There have been few to no NBA teams with a starting 5 all on the same "timeline." Knicks should build a contender before they make dynasty moves and both these guys would be great for the Knicks or a few years.

But NOT them...

Sell me on Ball over UFA's Cameron Payne and TJ McConnell.

No ... seriously.

Ball PROS:

- Younger, and strictly by basis of draft position and having a younger brother who may be a breakout star, has greater PERCEIVED upside.

- Has significantly great length.

- SLIGHTLY better rebounder than either ... slightly.

Payne PROS:

- 26, older, but still in prime and may be one of those PG late bloomers.

- By most metrics, the superior shooter (in ALL quadrants), the superior passer (one of the highest assist rates in the NBA), the superior defender, more efficient.

- is more of a perimeter distributor like Ball, but finishes closer to the basket better.

- Has been sitting behind Paul for a year, will likely play significant postseason minutes this year.

- Is probably best suited for a 25-min two-headed role (with Rose?)

McConnell PROS:

- 28, older still, but still within prime.

- Is MUCH more of a penetrator in the Thibs mold, takes a ton of shots 0-3, 3-10 feet (much more often than Ball) and hits at a MUCH better rate than Ball.

- Is one of the very best distributors in the NBA. Has the highest assist-rate/per 100 poss #s of any PG of any significance.

- Rated as a superior defender than Ball, and is one of the league's best at jumping passing lanes and creating steals.

- Has had a VERY up and down 3 pt% career, and is a middling .350 this season (has had seasons much worse, seasons much better).

- Like Payne is probably best suited for a 25-min two-headed role

I think both of these players right now are better, more efficient and more useful than Ball. But they lack the same size and perceived pedigree/upside that makes Ball appealing.

But that said, because they are UFAs as opposed to an RFA, are older and don't have the perceived tantalizing "ceiling" as Ball, they might be able to be had for significantly less without anything attached. They'd more fit into the lunchpail mold of the Thibs Knicks.

I think both are under-the-radar valuable players and would work well with Rose if that's the direction the Knicks wish to go in. They just might be who they are, though Thibs defensive scheming and whatever voodoo the Knicks are practicing to improve their 3 pt shooting couldn't hurt.

The floor is your's...

Cameron Payne is not good at basketball.... If Elfrid Payton was a white dude his name would be TJ McConnell

We have $70mm in cap space and we are talking about Cameron Payne and TJ McConnell? Cmon man... its only Wednesday

Cam has been trash for so long that I'm still a bit skeptical. He is playing well tho...I guess I could be talked into it. I view TJ as a high level. Wouldn't mind having him, but it means the Knicks are likely relying on Rose to start, which scares me. I guess it depends on how much Lonzo is asking for.

fishmike wrote:Cameron Payne is not good at basketball.... If Elfrid Payton was a white dude his name would be TJ McConnell

We have $70mm in cap space and we are talking about Cameron Payne and TJ McConnell? Cmon man... its only Wednesday

Payne is having a very good year (superior in every metric possible than Ball) on a VERY good team.

But yeah, fans of the team who are getting huge contributions from Randle and Noel and Rose and Burks and Bullocks and we're perceived to be a 20 win team should go off superficial impressions and reputation.

What a good idea...

BigDaddyG wrote:Cam has been trash for so long that I'm still a bit skeptical. He is playing well tho...I guess I could be talked into it. I view TJ as a high level. Wouldn't mind having him, but it means the Knicks are likely relying on Rose to start, which scares me. I guess it depends on how much Lonzo is asking for.

Lonza Ball isn't a better player than either of them.

The appeal of Lonzo Ball is you expect and HOPE he becomes a better player than he is.

He RIGHT now in his best season doesn't actually do anything better than either of them, and does a lot of things worse.

Knickoftime wrote:

fishmike wrote:Cameron Payne is not good at basketball.... If Elfrid Payton was a white dude his name would be TJ McConnell

We have $70mm in cap space and we are talking about Cameron Payne and TJ McConnell? Cmon man... its only Wednesday

Payne is having a very good year (superior in every metric possible than Ball) on a VERY good team.

But yeah, fans of the team who are getting huge contributions from Randle and Noel and Rose and Burks and Bullocks and we're perceived to be a 20 win team should go off superficial impressions and reputation.

What a good idea...

Payne... one good year in the league and he's surrounded by star players. McConnell is literally allergic to any shot more that 15 feet. How much you wanna pay these guys?

And I dont like Ball either, especially at the money being mentioned. You are talking MLE players. I want to sign a impact player. Not the 8th guy in my rotation

Knickoftime wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:Cam has been trash for so long that I'm still a bit skeptical. He is playing well tho...I guess I could be talked into it. I view TJ as a high level. Wouldn't mind having him, but it means the Knicks are likely relying on Rose to start, which scares me. I guess it depends on how much Lonzo is asking for.

Lonza Ball isn't a better player than either of them.

The appeal of Lonzo Ball is you expect and HOPE he becomes a better player than he is.

He RIGHT now in his best season doesn't actually do anything better than either of them, and does a lot of things worse.

I don't view Lonzo through the lense as the starting PG of the future. I see him as being, potentially, a high-level 3&D combo-guard who offers secondary or teriary playmaking and can also guard wings. More of Reggie Bullock replacement. If you look at him that way, you could see how his value would be higher. If you're viewing Lonzo as a PG, then yeah, you can make the case that Payne and TJ are better options.

The few times I've seen Payne this year, I've been impressed. Nice shot. Seemed careful with the ball. Didn't seem like a liability on defense. Solid overall.

Maybe it's because great teams will make you look better, or maybe I just haven't seen enough of him, but I haven't reached the same conclusion everyone else has that he's trash?

BigDaddyG wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:Cam has been trash for so long that I'm still a bit skeptical. He is playing well tho...I guess I could be talked into it. I view TJ as a high level. Wouldn't mind having him, but it means the Knicks are likely relying on Rose to start, which scares me. I guess it depends on how much Lonzo is asking for.

Lonza Ball isn't a better player than either of them.

The appeal of Lonzo Ball is you expect and HOPE he becomes a better player than he is.

He RIGHT now in his best season doesn't actually do anything better than either of them, and does a lot of things worse.

I don't view Lonzo through the lense as the starting PG of the future. I see him as being, potentially, a high-level 3&D combo-guard who offers secondary or teriary playmaking and can also guard wings. More of Reggie Bullock replacement. If you look at him that way, you could see how his value would be higher. If you're viewing Lonzo as a PG, then yeah, you can make the case that Payne and TJ are better options.

I just as soon roll with Bullock at a fraction of the cost. Because his D is a bit more built of reputation than execution and not sure I'm going to rely on that shot longterm.

He's gotten better and its going in at a decent rate this year, but overall not the rate you associate with a 3&D guy.

MaTT4281 wrote:The few times I've seen Payne this year, I've been impressed. Nice shot. Seemed careful with the ball. Didn't seem like a liability on defense. Solid overall.

Maybe it's because great teams will make you look better, or maybe I just haven't seen enough of him, but I haven't reached the same conclusion everyone else has that he's trash?

We've seen the late bloomer PG thing before. And his career has stalled due to health.

Hey, I'm not suggest $20m for Ball OR $15m for Payne.

The idea is you can get him at a fraction of the cost, roll with Rose/Payne and bring that band back together and keep flexibility for '22-23 OR if you make a big splash on the wing by some means this offseason.

fishmike wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

fishmike wrote:Cameron Payne is not good at basketball.... If Elfrid Payton was a white dude his name would be TJ McConnell

We have $70mm in cap space and we are talking about Cameron Payne and TJ McConnell? Cmon man... its only Wednesday

Payne is having a very good year (superior in every metric possible than Ball) on a VERY good team.

But yeah, fans of the team who are getting huge contributions from Randle and Noel and Rose and Burks and Bullocks and we're perceived to be a 20 win team should go off superficial impressions and reputation.

What a good idea...

Payne... one good year in the league and he's surrounded by star players. McConnell is literally allergic to any shot more that 15 feet. How much you wanna pay these guys?

And I dont like Ball either, especially at the money being mentioned. You are talking MLE players. I want to sign a impact player. Not the 8th guy in my rotation

The subject of this thread is BALL vs those guys. It is a conditional question.

And if they're MLE players, then they don't impact your cap space for the impact player, and can improve the Knicks.

So ... yeah, fishmike.

Yeah.

Lonzo is 6’6" with a 6’9" wingspan, He has superior physical tools for a point guard in comparison to your guys. This provide him with a number of advantages, the first thing that should stand out being is his elite transition play. Starting with his ability to force turnovers and haul in defensive boards to push the ball up the floor and begin the break. He has tremendous speed in the open floor when the ball is in his hands, possessing elite vision, creativity and passing ability. Constantly improving on the defensive end.

LAL was not the right fit for him playing under Walton, with LBJ. This really damaged his confidence levels.

Lonzo had confidence at UCLA.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=s0vaLqTw9pw

NOP is not an ideal fit either, SVG does not utilise him to the best of his game. Despite his improving performances.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eU3OOzQyXOY

Lonzo playing under Thibs and our development staff would be a winner.

Ive always wondered about the efficiency of players who have essentially come off bench for career and how it would change in a starting role.

Feel like the Knicks like Rose/IQ off the bench and see Rose as a change of pace player who can do well in that role and can start in case of injuries.

Don't see McConnell or Payne as starters for a playoff team and wouldn't spend money that way.

Also don't know if those guys in addition to Rose would block minutes for IQ.

If Knicks had cap space after the other pieces where in place and needed another backup PG? Sure.

we already have rose and IQ I can see a cameron payne or TJ Lonzo would cost so much and its not right to rose--and lonzo comes with his dad hes very inconsistent as well

Knickfury11 wrote:
Lonzo is 6’6" with a 6’9" wingspan, He has superior physical tools for a point guard in comparison to your guys.

No argument.

This provide him with a number of advantages, the first thing that should stand out being is his elite transition play. Starting with his ability to force turnovers and haul in defensive boards to push the ball up the floor and begin the break. He has tremendous speed in the open floor when the ball is in his hands, possessing elite vision, creativity and passing ability. Constantly improving on the defensive end.

He hasn't executed against these advantages.

He should be but is not a superior rebounder. He should be but is not a superior defender.

McConnell forces TO's at a MUCH higher rate, in fact, one of the NBA's highest.

His elite vision, creativity and passing does not translate to creating assists to teammates.

Both of the other players generate assists at a MUCH higher rate.

And I personally question the B-ball acumen of someone who didn't know enough to correct his horrible shot mechanics growing up.

There comes a point in which you have to stop projecting the 18-year that was and start evaluating the 24 year that is.

Knickoftime wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

Knickoftime wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:Cam has been trash for so long that I'm still a bit skeptical. He is playing well tho...I guess I could be talked into it. I view TJ as a high level. Wouldn't mind having him, but it means the Knicks are likely relying on Rose to start, which scares me. I guess it depends on how much Lonzo is asking for.

Lonza Ball isn't a better player than either of them.

The appeal of Lonzo Ball is you expect and HOPE he becomes a better player than he is.

He RIGHT now in his best season doesn't actually do anything better than either of them, and does a lot of things worse.

I don't view Lonzo through the lense as the starting PG of the future. I see him as being, potentially, a high-level 3&D combo-guard who offers secondary or teriary playmaking and can also guard wings. More of Reggie Bullock replacement. If you look at him that way, you could see how his value would be higher. If you're viewing Lonzo as a PG, then yeah, you can make the case that Payne and TJ are better options.

I just as soon roll with Bullock at a fraction of the cost. Because his D is a bit more built of reputation than execution and not sure I'm going to rely on that shot longterm.

He's gotten better and its going in at a decent rate this year, but overall not the rate you associate with a 3&D guy.

Lonzo is up to 38% from three, for his second year in a row. I think you can say his floor is 3&D. The playmaking and overall potential is what you're looking at. Again, depends on the cost. But his overall potential to influence the game in a variety of ways is why I'm looking at him. Also, Payne Market is probably less than mid-level right now. You might be able to bring both in.

Knickoftime wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:Cam has been trash for so long that I'm still a bit skeptical. He is playing well tho...I guess I could be talked into it. I view TJ as a high level. Wouldn't mind having him, but it means the Knicks are likely relying on Rose to start, which scares me. I guess it depends on how much Lonzo is asking for.

Lonza Ball isn't a better player than either of them.

The appeal of Lonzo Ball is you expect and HOPE he becomes a better player than he is.

He RIGHT now in his best season doesn't actually do anything better than either of them, and does a lot of things worse.

Exactly. Isn't that what good front offices are suppose to do, acquire players before they blow up? Suppose we signed Randle coming off an MVP caliber season. We would be paying him twice what we're paying him now.

Payne is averaging 17 minutes per game off the bench. If you are going to extrapolate his production into full time, starter minutes that would be foolish. TJ McConnell is a scrappy, journeyman, career back up who looks good for stretches of time because of his hustle but isn't very talented and certainly not a starter in this league. Nice guy to have on your team, not a guy you give the keys to and anoint him as your starting point guard. Plus both of these guys are undersized at only 6'1".

Lonzo may not be Jason Kidd, but he certainly has way more upside than Payne or McConnell. And this is coming from someone who isn't really a big fan of Lonzo.

here's the problem with Ball... All he does is shoot 3s. His FG% at the rim is really good, but he only takes 15% of his shots from there. Doesnt get FTs. Is obviously a good passer but his half court limitations are well documented. Also he's an RFA and I suspect NO will want to engineer some kind of S&T with draft compensation and I am not interested in that.

I would rather go with proven commods likke Schroder/Conley. If I cant land one for a reasonable price maybe we just roll with Rose/Luka/IQ... maybe we bring back Burks because he handle some spot duty there... we'll see. Ball @ $20mm plus give me a real but I have been so high on the FO I would keep an open mind

MaTT4281 wrote:The few times I've seen Payne this year, I've been impressed. Nice shot. Seemed careful with the ball. Didn't seem like a liability on defense. Solid overall.

Maybe it's because great teams will make you look better, or maybe I just haven't seen enough of him, but I haven't reached the same conclusion everyone else has that he's trash?

He's not playing like trash now, but he did for a long time after he was drafted. Players improve...we've seen it with Jewelz. Cam might've turned the corner and made a name for himself outside of being Westbrook's dance buddy.

MaTT4281 wrote:The few times I've seen Payne this year, I've been impressed. Nice shot. Seemed careful with the ball. Didn't seem like a liability on defense. Solid overall.

Maybe it's because great teams will make you look better, or maybe I just haven't seen enough of him, but I haven't reached the same conclusion everyone else has that he's trash?

Yep, these type of dudes usually get exposed when you expand their responsibility and suddenly they have more pressure on them when teams rely on them more. I'm not opposed to adding either player to our team. I just think it's not a sound move bringing either in with the expectation of being your new starting PG.

I will say this though, I'm all in substituting either guy for Payton. But I wouldn't acquire either INSTEAD of Lonzo.

Welpee wrote:

MaTT4281 wrote:The few times I've seen Payne this year, I've been impressed. Nice shot. Seemed careful with the ball. Didn't seem like a liability on defense. Solid overall.

Maybe it's because great teams will make you look better, or maybe I just haven't seen enough of him, but I haven't reached the same conclusion everyone else has that he's trash?

Yep, these type of dudes usually get exposed when you expand their responsibility and suddenly they have more pressure on them when teams rely on them more. I'm not opposed to adding either player to our team. I just think it's not a sound move bringing either in with the expectation of being your new starting PG.

I will say this though, I'm all in substituting either guy for Payton. But I wouldn't acquire either INSTEAD of Lonzo.

I mean, we've kind of seen with Dennis Schroeder to an extent. He's not scoring nearly as efficiently with LA as he did with OKC. Might have to dive more into Payne's situational shooting numbers to get a clearer picture. That said...can he be worse than Payton?