Knicks · 2021 NBA Free Agency (and around the league): Preview and Primer (page 1)

A few things stood out. Because capped teams get a 10 vs 5 million exception, it doesn't make sense for a lot of teams to renounce their players to enter free agency. That limits the amount most teams can offer free agents. Miami is a good example of a team that can open a little space in free agency but at the cost of much of its depth.

The second thing, a lot of teams free agency plans depend on restricted free agency. Most of the Knicks space depends on them presumably declining to protect Frank in free agency. The Hawks won't have space unless they decide not to retain John Collins.

Lastly, legitimate free agency money is scarce! 3 teams will have enough space to sign a 30 million player and one more team has a 20 million dollar slot. Getting a sign and traded free agent triggers the hard cap, putting a lot of pressure on a teams ability to keep its other free agents. Its not something teams want to do.

Here's the breakdown:
Eastern Conference
ATL- above cap as long as they plan to keep Collins. If they do will likely resign Williams. Losing both opens a mere 15 million.

BOS- no path to free agents except mle, will try hard to resign Fournier

BKN- no path to free agents except mle

CHA- a tale of 2 RFAs, Graham with the 4 million cap hold and Monk's 16 million hold but a better fit. Releasing opens 20 million in FA.

CHI- can open about 20 million by releasing thad young and lauri markannen. It seems more likely they will try to keep both.

CLE- cap space for free agents totally dependent on how Jarrett Allen's contract plays out. Would still only open an MLE equivalent amount.

DET- still suffering from the revenge of Blake Griffin and no path to free agency except mle

IND- over the cap, no path to free agency except mle

MIA- can open 18 million in cap space while protecting Nunn and Robinson. But that number gets eaten up as soon as they sign. It also hurts renouncing Oladipo to open that space. Dragic and Iggy have huge team option years. They have 5 guys signed for next season. Looks like the music may have stopped.

MIL- no path to free agents except mle

NYK- can open up to 51 million, 42 more likely if they decide to keep Rose.

ORL- signing their two first round picks will eat up most of their cap room.

PHI- no path to free agents except mle

TOR- free agency depends on Gary Trent Jr. 'S deal. If they keep him will be better off using the mle.

WAS- no path to FA except MLE

Eastern round up:
Teams with legit space: NYK (40+)
Teams with RFA issues before FA: ATL, CHA, CHI, CLE, MIA, TOR
Teams with only MLE: BOS, BKN, DET, IND, MIL, PHI, WAS

Western Conference:
DAL- their only way to space is by renouncing their rights to THJ, opening about 20 million. Or they can keep THJ and use the mle. Option b sounds more likely.

DEN- would have to renounce everyone to open up 10 million, so will operate above the cap.

GSW- yes, they are over the cap

HOU- no escaping John Wall and Eric Gordon's combined 62. They are over the cap.

LAC- hopefully firmly over the cap. Kawhi leaving would hurt

LAL- over the cap

MEM- 20 million open no problem. Watch out, this front office knows what it's doing.

MIN- over the cap

NOP- if they lose out on both Josh Hart and Lonzo, they will only open about 10 million in space. They will likely match any offers.

OKC- 40+ million in space but also 100 million in trade exemptions. They could theoretically absorb the Wizards entire team and give them a fresh new start. OKC is now the market maker for the nba.

PHO- over the cap

POR- a painful path to cap space renouncing everyone and buying out Nurkic exists. They will operate over the cap and focus on their guys.

SAC- surprisingly over the cap. Only Kings could mess up on Richaun Holmes.

SAS- mostly depends on their decision to try and keep DeRozan or not. Only Knicks and OKC will have the 30 million in space Derozan is looking for. Other teams will look to dump players to open up more space for Derozan, but again only OKC, NYK, and MEM will have empty space to absorb another player to potentially open more space. SAS would want some good assets to cooperate on a sign and trade. They could potentially have 40 million in cap space on a tight market.

UTA- no cap space except mle regardless of what happens with Mike Conley

Western Conference Round up:
Teams with Legit Cap space: MEM (20 mil) SAS (40 mil if no DeRozan) OKC (40 mil or trade exemptions)
Teams with RFA issues before free agency: NOP POR
Teams over the cap: DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, LAC, LAL, MIN, PHO, SAC, UTA

Keith Smith: Had people on both the agent and team sides say they expect a record number of trades this offseason. Poor FA class, limited cap space, teams wanting to go for it are all the main reasons why. Also mentioned: revenue losses weren’t as bad as projected. Teams are willing to spend.

25 teams will likely be operating over the cap witb trades the only way to shake up the roster.
Sign and trades will be tricky because if a team accepts a sign and traded player they are hard capped.

New home on the horizon for Marvin Bagley?

NBA Central: “I think there’s probably a new home for him on the horizon.” – Adrian Wojnarowski on Marvin Bagley (Via ESPN)

If Sac can move Bagley for space, they can try to resign Richaun Holmes. Knicks, OKC, MEM only guys sure to have the space to absorb his contract now.

Mutual interest between Bulls, Lonzo Ball

Daniel Greenberg: Woj on Woj & Lowe: 1) “In a perfect world for both Lonzo Ball and Chicago Bulls, they end up together.” 2) Woj said that the Chicago Bulls are a potential landing spot for Derrick Rose. 3) A lot of teams are interested in Tomas Satoransky.

Only way for this to happen is if CHI decides to move on from Lauri. NOP could open space by trading Bledsoe to MEM, renounce Hart and Ball and then have enough for Lowry. CHI could sign Lonzo as a UFA in that scenario after eenouncing Lauri.

NBA Central: Adrian Wojnarowski expects a ‘big market’ for Kyle Lowry “You’re talking potentially $25 million-$30 million a year for Kyle Lowry, it’s going to be expensive to get at him in free agency or sign-and-trade.”

Maybe? I just don't see it. Now Knicks are the only team with space in that range. OKC and SAS don't seem like fits, that means any team looking to sign him, like NOP will have to drop salary or sign and trade. League cap space is at a premium so dumping salary will be expensive. Maybe TOR does Lowry a solid by not gutting his new team on a trade. That doesnt sound like Toronto though.

gradyandrew wrote:As a sucker for the more soap opera story lines of the NBA... If DeRozan and Lowry ever made a pact that they would reunite and try to win a championship together, NY can get them pretty close, signing each guy for about 25 million and slotting them into a roster better than any they had in Toronto.

derozan cant shoot from 3, not very interested in adding him. i am not a buyer that those 2 would do anything except more post season flame outs as they had in tor if they join ny.

sidsanders wrote:

gradyandrew wrote:As a sucker for the more soap opera story lines of the NBA... If DeRozan and Lowry ever made a pact that they would reunite and try to win a championship together, NY can get them pretty close, signing each guy for about 25 million and slotting them into a roster better than any they had in Toronto.

derozan cant shoot from 3, not very interested in adding him. i am not a buyer that those 2 would do anything except more post season flame outs as they had in tor if they join ny.

I get what you are saying but realistically they raise the floor of the Knicks over the next season higher than any other free agents, especially if you are worried about regression from Randle.

It's a critical off season for the Spurs if they want to reinvent themselves. One theory, Popovich is scouting Ntilinka and Vildoza and assessing their fit on the Spurs next sesson. A DeRozan sign and trade solves some problems for the Knicks if they can figure out a way to keep Rose. I think Rose wants to stay but it will cost the Knicks his 9 million cap hold at least.

Lowry/ Rose/ Barrett/ DeRozan/ Randle crunch time 5 looks like a legitimate contender.

The Toronto Raptors are expected to pursue Jarrett Allen in restricted free agency. The Raptors previously pursued a trade for Allen.

Allen and the Cleveland Cavaliers have mutual interest on agreeing to a deal in free agency. The Cavaliers acquired Allen as part of the four-team James Harden trade.

Allen averaged 13.2 points, 9.9 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in 51 games for the Cavaliers.

If the Raptors plan on offering more than the full mle, they will need to renounce FA rights to Lowry. At 10 million Cleveland would likely match.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings have discussed a trade centered on Buddy Hield for Kyle Kuzma, sources tell The Athletic. The Lakers are seeking an upgrade in the backcourt and have also been linked to free agents Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Spencer Dinwiddie.

The Kings previously had interest in Kuzma via trade. Kuzma signed a three-year, $40 million extension with the Lakers before the 20-21 offseason.

The Kings signed Hield to a four-year, $86 million extension in 2019.

Adrian Wojnarowski reported on Sunday that the Lakers have been incredibly aggressive in offering Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope around the league.

Lakers could be aggressively offering Kuzma and KCP around the league as a way to cut the enough salary to offer a marquee FA a reasonable salary.This connects with yesterdays Lowry and DeRozan to LA rumours. OKC makes the most sense as a candidate to accept salary but the Lakers are tapped out of draft picks to get it done. "If you want to get to the boy's soul you got to pay the troll toll."

Kuzma for Hield seems like plan B.

The other rumour out there has linked Westbrook to LAL.

Depending on the Lakers and Warriors appetite for the luxury tax, the Wizards could execute a pretty effective rebuild on the fly trading Westbrook for Schroeder, Kuzma, and KCP and then Beal and Bertans for Wiggins, Wiseman and GSWs two picks. This gives the Wizards 3 pucks in this years draft with Wiseman abd Avidja from last years draft. In addition to a play in level team of Schroeder, Wiggins, KCP, Kuzma, Bryant and Hachimura.

LAL and GSW would be looking at about 100 million in tax payments to fill out the rest of their rosters.

Keith Smith: Something swirling around the draft rumor mill is Eric Bledsoe and #10 from New Orleans to Memphis for #17. The idea is that the Pelicans clear Bledsoe, while moving back slightly. Grizzlies use some cap space (likely after declining Justise Winslow’s TO) to move up. – via Twitter KeithSmithNBA

This only makes sense if NO is trying to clear space to enter free agency meaning they would likely renounce Lonzo Ball's cap hold (no quslifying offer) to open up space.

Here is the source article a lot of information there. It seems like the teams interested in Ben Simmons are hoping to get back in the playoffs. I'm also unsure about Lillard moving. I am guessing he gives Chauncey a chance. They will also have more flexibility to move him in mid season once newly signed FAs are available to be traded without triggering the hard cap.

The Rockets to Indiana deal sounds weird, I would think Rockets would need to send compensation for absorbing Eric Gordon's salary. Indiana can't receive sign and trade players without hitting the hard cap. It seems like resigning Doug McDermont would be a cheaper plan.

sidsanders wrote:

gradyandrew wrote:As a sucker for the more soap opera story lines of the NBA... If DeRozan and Lowry ever made a pact that they would reunite and try to win a championship together, NY can get them pretty close, signing each guy for about 25 million and slotting them into a roster better than any they had in Toronto.

derozan cant shoot from 3, not very interested in adding him. i am not a buyer that those 2 would do anything except more post season flame outs as they had in tor if they join ny.

This.

Derozan is just a name now. He’s not a good shooter. All he does now is slash. He’s old. Will want a multi year deal. Pass.

Worth a skim, but come on- Minny, Cleveland, and Indiana as the most interesting teams in the off season? Sometimes the guys at the ringer try too hard. This is an egregious example.

In the middle of his smart piece he drops 3 psragraphs on CP including dome BS about CP going to the Lakers. Yet its possible but what's the plan? CP loses 30 million by signing the MLE? Or Lakers give him 20 million by dumping everyobe except the big 2? Or PHO helps him do a sign and trade for loose change? Its not going to happen.

Philc1 wrote:

sidsanders wrote:

gradyandrew wrote:As a sucker for the more soap opera story lines of the NBA... If DeRozan and Lowry ever made a pact that they would reunite and try to win a championship together, NY can get them pretty close, signing each guy for about 25 million and slotting them into a roster better than any they had in Toronto.

derozan cant shoot from 3, not very interested in adding him. i am not a buyer that those 2 would do anything except more post season flame outs as they had in tor if they join ny.

This.

Derozan is just a name now. He’s not a good shooter. All he does now is slash. He’s old. Will want a multi year deal. Pass.

He is not a 3 point shooter for sure but everything else is elite- free throws, assists, turnovers, and scoring. He fits a need and establishes a pretty high floor offensively. But really it comes down to not over thinking it. He is the BPA.

gradyandrew wrote:

Philc1 wrote:

sidsanders wrote:

gradyandrew wrote:As a sucker for the more soap opera story lines of the NBA... If DeRozan and Lowry ever made a pact that they would reunite and try to win a championship together, NY can get them pretty close, signing each guy for about 25 million and slotting them into a roster better than any they had in Toronto.

derozan cant shoot from 3, not very interested in adding him. i am not a buyer that those 2 would do anything except more post season flame outs as they had in tor if they join ny.

This.

Derozan is just a name now. He’s not a good shooter. All he does now is slash. He’s old. Will want a multi year deal. Pass.

He is not a 3 point shooter for sure but everything else is elite- free throws, assists, turnovers, and scoring. He fits a need and establishes a pretty high floor offensively. But really it comes down to not over thinking it. He is the BPA.

I like Derozan from perspective of he could take ball handling pressure off Randle and also be primary while Randle is on bench. My biggest concern with Derozan though is not his 3 point shooting but fact he has such horrible +/- record over course of his career. I think he has been a net negative his entire career which is just odd/concerning.

VDesai wrote:Jazz might move Bogdanovic or Ingles to free up enough space for Conley. I know both guys are older, but both are complete knockdown shooters. Could you extract one ofr Knox and a 1st rounder if they are looking to shed salary? Ingles is I think has 1 yr 13 mm left, but Bogdanovic has like 2 yrs left close to 38mm

Before signing Conley they are right at the tax line. Any extendion triggers a 300% tax. The killer is Bogdanovich's 18 million. Utah has the #30 pick so no big value there to trade. All their guys are 30 so no value there.

Conley doesn't have many options either. Outside of Utah, only NYK, SAS, OKC project 25 million in cap space. I thought MEM's 20 million space was a market floor for him but if they trade for Bledsoe, that space is gone. SAS seems an unlikely spotcas does OKC, leaving the Knicks in charge. A 30 million offer to Conley puts a lot of pressure on Utah, not sure if they would be able to offer more.

The Memphis Grizzlies have agreed to trade Jonas Valanciunas to the New Orleans Pelicans for Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe.

Memphis will acquire picks No. 10 and No. 40 in this week's draft along with a protected 2022 first round pick via the Los Angeles Lakers. The pick from the Lakers will be protected 1-10. The Pelicans will get picks No. 17 and No. 51 back from the Grizzlies.

The move clears cap space for the Pelicans in free agency and have been linked with Kyle Lowry.

Chris Haynes of Yahoo! Sports reports that Bledsoe is not expected to remain with the Grizzlies.

Only way for this move to make any sense is if the Pelicans are plannong on renouncing their cap holds and entering free agency. MEM using their space means only NYK, SAS, OKC and now NOP will likely have space.

Tough pill for Lonzo to swallow. Despite a much improved 3 pt. shot he could be looking at an mle gig. Josh Hart may be lucky to get even that.