Top 20:
20. Jake LaRavia (Wake Forest, PF, Junior)
LaRavia is our biggest riser after going back through film. His versatility feels perfectly suited for an NBA supporting role, assuming the three-point shooting on limited volume wasn't fluky. For a 6'9" forward, LaRavia should fit in nicely with his shoot-dribble-pass skill set and clear defensive instincts.
19. Kendall Brown (Baylor, SF, Freshman)
Brown's explosiveness looks potent enough for him to contribute without a great deal for offensive skill. It may be a year or two before he's a regular rotation player. He'll earn minutes by getting easy transition buckets, cutting and playmaking defensively, though he could eventually add some value with his passing and open shooting.
18. Mark Williams (Duke, C, Sophomore)
Williams' strengths and weaknesses are well defined. Teams know what they'll be getting, and certain ones who already have centers may not show any interest at all. Teams with a need for rim protection will target Williams as a potential Clint Capela type, though he also showed he has some post game and touch by making 72.7 percent of his free throws.
17. Ochai Agbaji (Kansas, SG/SF, Senior)
Shooting, athleticism and defensive tools create a role-playing floor for Agbaji. Limited skills for creating, pull-up scoring and playmaking suggest it will be tough for him to offer anything more than three-and-D.
16. Patrick Baldwin (Milwaukee, SF/PF, Freshman)
Baldwin has a good chance to help himself during workouts after a freshman season that couldn't have gone much worse. The eye test on his jumper (plus high school and FIBA tape) should make it easy for NBA teams to ignore his numbers. And though his lack of explosion does raise questions about how well his creation can translate, there should still be first-round value tied to his shot-making for a 6'9" wing or forward.
15. TyTy Washington (Kentucky, PG/SG, Freshman)
Washington's stock took a hit over the past two months, even if there was reason to believe an ankle injury factored into his play falling off. He's still a well-rounded guard with three-point range, a comfortable pull-up game, outstanding floater and high passing IQ. The big question is how much could his athletic limitations hold him back as a creator.
14. Johnny Davis (Wisconsin, SG, Sophomore)
After receiving a 32.5 usage percentage, Davis will be looking at a major role adjustment. It wouldn't be surprising to see an inefficient rookie season from the guard who didn't take many threes and had trouble consistently creating separation.
Still, it is worth betting on Davis' tough shot-making and defense. Even if his lack of shooting and explosion hold him back, a team should still get a two-way player who can apply pressure with his driving, pull-up game and defense.
13. Jalen Duren (Memphis, C, Freshman)
Duren won't be for everyone considering his lack of shooting, ball-handling and positional versatility. He'll draw interest from teams interested in adding more easy baskets and rim protection, which his 250-pound frame, 7'5" wingspan and leaping ability are sure to provide.
12. Bennedict Mathurin (Arizona, SG/SF, Sophomore)
Workout season should help highlight Mathurin's strengths as an athlete and shot-maker. After seeing him up close, executives might have an easier time forgetting about his inconsistent production and intensity.
11. Tari Eason (LSU, PF, Sophomore)
Versatility and toughness are Eason's signatures. He doesn't project as a high-upside scorer, but for a strong forward, there is a lot to like about his ability to handle in transition, attack closeouts, play physical inside and defend bigs and wings.
10. Dyson Daniels (G League Ignite, PG/SG, 2003)
The draw to Daniels stems from his versatility, which now looks even more attractive that he's up to 6'8". With forward size, he'll operates as a Swiss Army Knife guard who can pass, score off drives and defend three positions.
9. Malaki Branham (Ohio State, SG, Freshman)
Well-rounded, efficient and still 18 years old, Branham has a scouting report with few worrisome holes. He isn't the shiftiest or most explosive, but he may night not need to be given how sharp he is rising into pull-ups and making the right reads as a driver and playmaker. An accurate shooter and super-efficient ball-screen weapon, Branham projects as an easy fit (on or off the ball) with three-level scoring ability and passing IQ.
8. Jeremy Sochan (Baylor, PF, Freshman)
The idea of Sochan is still more enticing than his numbers, but at 18 years old, it's worth betting on his development. If the offensive flashes become real/strengths, a team gets a 6'9" defensive ace who can pass, make open shots, attack closeouts and finish on the move.
7. AJ Griffin (Duke, SF, Freshman)
Griffin's 44.7 three-point percentage and shot-making versatility hint at a high floor and easy fit. His age (18), 6'6", 222-pound frame and one-on-one scoring flashes create a high ceiling.
Limited burst for blowing by or separating does seem to lower Griffin's chances of reaching that star potential. But that shouldn't matter as much in the late-lottery range. The likelihood of his shooting and cutting translating to off-ball scoring is too high.
6. Keegan Murray (Iowa, PF, Sophomore)
Murray's floor is the selling point, as it's easy to picture his off-ball scoring skills carrying over. It's tougher to see the one-on-one offense translating based on his half-court handle.
He comes off as more of a safe pick than an upside one with a sense of certainty tied to his production, transition offense, instincts, motor and shooting trajectory.
5. Shaedon Sharpe (Kentucky, SG, Freshman)
While the top four have been mostly set for months, the No. 5 spot has remained fluid. Despite scouts having seen little of Sharpe, they already view him top-eight, and that's before workout season, where his effortless bounce and shot-making are bound to light up.
With a perceived gap between Jaden Ivey and the next group of prospects, Sharpe has an edge here at No. 5 with a translatable mix of athletic ability, self-creation and shooting skills for high-upside scoring.
4. Jaden Ivey (Purdue, SG, Sophomore)
Ivey had a forgettable performance in Purdue's NCAA tournament exit, but history says teams should ignore it. He showed too much improved skill throughout the season for a guard with his level of explosiveness.
While I still see more of a combo than a lead ball-handler because of concerns over decision-making and pull-up shooting, a worst-case outcome pictures Ivey giving a team a dangerous offensive weapon who'll apply pressure in transition, attacking ball screens and shot-making.
3. Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga, PF/C, Freshman)
The only NCAA player ever with at least 40 threes, 100 blocks and 60 assists, Holmgren still appears to have the draft's highest ceiling.
Even if teams are skeptical about his strength or half-court creation, the shooting, passing and defense could be enough to justify No. 1 value. Slotting him at No. 3 takes into account the risk tied to his incredibly thin frame and how we've seen foul trouble or passive stretches limit his offensive impact.
2. Jabari Smith (Auburn, PF, Freshman)
Smith still has a decent shot at going No. 1 with the idea that we've never seen a 6'10" teenage shooter of his caliber. Throw in the defensive tools and movement, and even a worst-case outcome for Smith figures to be highly valuable.
The lack of production at the rim is worth questioning (37 half-court baskets in 34 games), as it relates to his handle and explosion. But it might not matter considering how adept Smith is creating and making shots around the perimeter.
1. Paolo Banchero (Duke, PF, Freshman)
There isn't much separating the top three, and for certain teams, Smith or Holmgren may make more sense at No. 1.
While Holmgren, Smith and Banchero each offer similar star potential, Banchero has come off as the lowest risk. Cam Reddish and Ziaire Williams were the only top-10 picks we found with a lower two-point percentage than Smith's 43.5 during their predraft season. And at Holmgren's current weight, he'd join Aleksej Pokusevski as the only NBA players 6'11" or taller who weigh under 200 pounds.
With an outstanding physical profile, Banchero also offers the most well-rounded skill and versatility for creation, three-level shot-making and playmaking.
