Knicks · Dallas Pick Watch (page 5)
Knickoftime wrote:KnickDanger wrote:Dallas pick currently hovering in our sweet spot but how long are Luka and Kyrie out? We don’t need a free fall - thin margin between sweet spot and them keeping the pick.Overthinking this. if Dallas finishes 11-14, they have a 2.4% (14) to 9.4% (11) finish in the top 4.
If Dallas finishes 10 they still have a 20.2% chance of finishing 11 or 12.
I'll take that 11 spot with a 9.4% chance of not getting it this year all day.
This is what I have been trying to figure out - if Dallas whiffs on the play in, where do they end up picking- er, I mean, where do we end up picking.
And if we end up with a late lotto pick, then the KP trade has to go down as one of the best in our franchise history, behind those that facilitated the two championships.
I just hope the FO uses that pick for a player and not in a trade.
franco12 wrote:Knickoftime wrote:KnickDanger wrote:Dallas pick currently hovering in our sweet spot but how long are Luka and Kyrie out? We don’t need a free fall - thin margin between sweet spot and them keeping the pick.Overthinking this. if Dallas finishes 11-14, they have a 2.4% (14) to 9.4% (11) finish in the top 4.
If Dallas finishes 10 they still have a 20.2% chance of finishing 11 or 12.
I'll take that 11 spot with a 9.4% chance of not getting it this year all day.
This is what I have been trying to figure out - if Dallas whiffs on the play in, where do they end up picking- er, I mean, where do we end up picking.
And if we end up with a late lotto pick, then the KP trade has to go down as one of the best in our franchise history, behind those that facilitated the two championships.
I just hope the FO uses that pick for a player and not in a trade.
I am clueless on the play in scenario vis a vis the pick, but only guessing our FO would use the pick and not trade it or at least see to it that they have a #1 this coming draft. Didn’t have one last year (only Keels)and you want to keep the infusion of young talent going and some of the younger players are arriving at the get paid crossroads.
franco12 wrote:This is what I have been trying to figure out - if Dallas whiffs on the play in, where do they end up picking- er, I mean, where do we end up picking.
KnickDanger wrote:I am clueless on the play in scenario vis a vis the pick,
It's really pretty straightforward when you break it down.
The day after the play-in games are finished, the 16 teams going to a 7-game first round series are picks 15-30, in the order of their regular season record.
The 14 teams who don't, including the 10 teams who didn't make the play-in and 4 teams that were eliminated in the play in are the lottery teams, with their lottery odds (ping pong balls) assigned according to their regular season records.
https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
The Dallas pick
The pick is highly volatile, as Dallas is .500 with 12 games to play and in a pack of like 12 teams within 2 games above and below them.
But it appears as if the pick will be 15-19 IF Dallas qualifies for the postseason, or 12-14 if they don't.
But to try to answer the question, if Dallas is a play-in team and they go on to the postseason, the pick will likely be 15-17. If they lose during the play-in, it will likely be 12-14 for lottery odds.
I'm personally hoping for 12th place in the lottery.
That would give the Knicks an 86% chance at pick 12 and a 9% chance at 13 and just a 4.7% chance of it being 1-4 and Dallas keeping it.
Knickoftime wrote:franco12 wrote:This is what I have been trying to figure out - if Dallas whiffs on the play in, where do they end up picking- er, I mean, where do we end up picking.KnickDanger wrote:I am clueless on the play in scenario vis a vis the pick,It's really pretty straightforward when you break it down.
The day after the play-in games are finished, the 16 teams going to a 7-game first round series are picks 15-30, in the order of their regular season record.
The 14 teams who don't, including the 10 teams who didn't make the play-in and 4 teams that were eliminated in the play in are the lottery teams, with their lottery odds (ping pong balls) assigned according to their regular season records.
https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
The Dallas pick
The pick is highly volatile, as Dallas is .500 with 12 games to play and in a pack of like 12 teams within 2 games above and below them.
But it appears as if the pick will be 15-19 IF Dallas qualifies for the postseason, or 12-14 if they don't.
But to try to answer the question, if Dallas is a play-in team and they go on to the postseason, the pick will likely be 15-17. If they lose during the play-in, it will likely be 12-14 for lottery odds.
I'm personally hoping for 12th place in the lottery.
That would give the Knicks an 86% chance at pick 12 and a 9% chance at 13 and just a 4.7% chance of it being 1-4 and Dallas keeping it.
and this would be the year we'd 'win' the lottery! And lose the pick and watch Dallas take Wembanyama!
Knickoftime wrote:franco12 wrote:This is what I have been trying to figure out - if Dallas whiffs on the play in, where do they end up picking- er, I mean, where do we end up picking.KnickDanger wrote:I am clueless on the play in scenario vis a vis the pick,It's really pretty straightforward when you break it down.
The day after the play-in games are finished, the 16 teams going to a 7-game first round series are picks 15-30, in the order of their regular season record.
The 14 teams who don't, including the 10 teams who didn't make the play-in and 4 teams that were eliminated in the play in are the lottery teams, with their lottery odds (ping pong balls) assigned according to their regular season records.
https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
The Dallas pick
The pick is highly volatile, as Dallas is .500 with 12 games to play and in a pack of like 12 teams within 2 games above and below them.
But it appears as if the pick will be 15-19 IF Dallas qualifies for the postseason, or 12-14 if they don't.
But to try to answer the question, if Dallas is a play-in team and they go on to the postseason, the pick will likely be 15-17. If they lose during the play-in, it will likely be 12-14 for lottery odds.
I'm personally hoping for 12th place in the lottery.
That would give the Knicks an 86% chance at pick 12 and a 9% chance at 13 and just a 4.7% chance of it being 1-4 and Dallas keeping it.
Great post. I appreciate the effort.
gradyandrew wrote:Knickoftime wrote:franco12 wrote:This is what I have been trying to figure out - if Dallas whiffs on the play in, where do they end up picking- er, I mean, where do we end up picking.KnickDanger wrote:I am clueless on the play in scenario vis a vis the pick,It's really pretty straightforward when you break it down.
The day after the play-in games are finished, the 16 teams going to a 7-game first round series are picks 15-30, in the order of their regular season record.
The 14 teams who don't, including the 10 teams who didn't make the play-in and 4 teams that were eliminated in the play in are the lottery teams, with their lottery odds (ping pong balls) assigned according to their regular season records.
https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
The Dallas pick
The pick is highly volatile, as Dallas is .500 with 12 games to play and in a pack of like 12 teams within 2 games above and below them.
But it appears as if the pick will be 15-19 IF Dallas qualifies for the postseason, or 12-14 if they don't.
But to try to answer the question, if Dallas is a play-in team and they go on to the postseason, the pick will likely be 15-17. If they lose during the play-in, it will likely be 12-14 for lottery odds.
I'm personally hoping for 12th place in the lottery.
That would give the Knicks an 86% chance at pick 12 and a 9% chance at 13 and just a 4.7% chance of it being 1-4 and Dallas keeping it.
Great post. I appreciate the effort.
Yes well done. Looking good but no free fall needed.
KnickDanger wrote:gradyandrew wrote:Knickoftime wrote:franco12 wrote:This is what I have been trying to figure out - if Dallas whiffs on the play in, where do they end up picking- er, I mean, where do we end up picking.KnickDanger wrote:I am clueless on the play in scenario vis a vis the pick,It's really pretty straightforward when you break it down.
The day after the play-in games are finished, the 16 teams going to a 7-game first round series are picks 15-30, in the order of their regular season record.
The 14 teams who don't, including the 10 teams who didn't make the play-in and 4 teams that were eliminated in the play in are the lottery teams, with their lottery odds (ping pong balls) assigned according to their regular season records.
https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
The Dallas pick
The pick is highly volatile, as Dallas is .500 with 12 games to play and in a pack of like 12 teams within 2 games above and below them.
But it appears as if the pick will be 15-19 IF Dallas qualifies for the postseason, or 12-14 if they don't.
But to try to answer the question, if Dallas is a play-in team and they go on to the postseason, the pick will likely be 15-17. If they lose during the play-in, it will likely be 12-14 for lottery odds.
I'm personally hoping for 12th place in the lottery.
That would give the Knicks an 86% chance at pick 12 and a 9% chance at 13 and just a 4.7% chance of it being 1-4 and Dallas keeping it.
Great post. I appreciate the effort.
Yes well done. Looking good but no free fall needed.
NP (to both of you), I enjoy this stuff.
Good news is there is 3 game gap between (with 10-12 to play) where the Mavs currently are and the teams with the 10th and 11th worst records.
If Mavs finished 10 Knicks would have a 77.5% chance of NOT getting a pick.
If Mavs finished 11, Knicks would have a 89.3% chance of getting the pick (12 is 95.3%).
So 10 and 11 make all the difference in the world.
Mavs going 5-7 would be just about perfect.
I'd even be comfortable with 4-8.
Knickoftime wrote:franco12 wrote:This is what I have been trying to figure out - if Dallas whiffs on the play in, where do they end up picking- er, I mean, where do we end up picking.KnickDanger wrote:I am clueless on the play in scenario vis a vis the pick,It's really pretty straightforward when you break it down.
The day after the play-in games are finished, the 16 teams going to a 7-game first round series are picks 15-30, in the order of their regular season record.
The 14 teams who don't, including the 10 teams who didn't make the play-in and 4 teams that were eliminated in the play in are the lottery teams, with their lottery odds (ping pong balls) assigned according to their regular season records.
https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
The Dallas pick
The pick is highly volatile, as Dallas is .500 with 12 games to play and in a pack of like 12 teams within 2 games above and below them.
But it appears as if the pick will be 15-19 IF Dallas qualifies for the postseason, or 12-14 if they don't.
But to try to answer the question, if Dallas is a play-in team and they go on to the postseason, the pick will likely be 15-17. If they lose during the play-in, it will likely be 12-14 for lottery odds.
I'm personally hoping for 12th place in the lottery.
That would give the Knicks an 86% chance at pick 12 and a 9% chance at 13 and just a 4.7% chance of it being 1-4 and Dallas keeping it.
Probably the best summary of the odd I read. Our lottery luck they end up with pick 1,2 or 3 despite the long odds.
fishmike wrote:Dallas losing the play in would be so perfect... almost surely we get a late lottery pick would would be amazing.
Good news is the West is a little better than the East.
The 10 seed is currently occupied by a team 1 game under .500 (Utah)
In the East it's 3 games under (Bulls)
The implications of that are the Mavs could even finish out of the play-in but STILL have the 11th or 12th worst record (for lottery odds) because the two teams eliminated in the East play-in could have worse regular season records.
Knickoftime wrote:franco12 wrote:This is what I have been trying to figure out - if Dallas whiffs on the play in, where do they end up picking- er, I mean, where do we end up picking.KnickDanger wrote:I am clueless on the play in scenario vis a vis the pick,It's really pretty straightforward when you break it down.
The day after the play-in games are finished, the 16 teams going to a 7-game first round series are picks 15-30, in the order of their regular season record.
The 14 teams who don't, including the 10 teams who didn't make the play-in and 4 teams that were eliminated in the play in are the lottery teams, with their lottery odds (ping pong balls) assigned according to their regular season records.
https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
The Dallas pick
The pick is highly volatile, as Dallas is .500 with 12 games to play and in a pack of like 12 teams within 2 games above and below them.
But it appears as if the pick will be 15-19 IF Dallas qualifies for the postseason, or 12-14 if they don't.
But to try to answer the question, if Dallas is a play-in team and they go on to the postseason, the pick will likely be 15-17. If they lose during the play-in, it will likely be 12-14 for lottery odds.
I'm personally hoping for 12th place in the lottery.
That would give the Knicks an 86% chance at pick 12 and a 9% chance at 13 and just a 4.7% chance of it being 1-4 and Dallas keeping it.
Late back the party here - forgot I’d asked this question but as others noted THANKS FOR DETAILED RESPONSE.
Also wasn’t thinking about us getting pick 12 pre-lottery than losing it if we move up 1-10. Damn.
Kyrie doesn’t want to take blame for not being able to carry without Luka so quickly got in walking boot for excuse.
Now that I’ve said that Kyrie will throw up 59 Wed night.
franco12 wrote:I wonder what the discussion was with our pick vs. dallas when we made the Portland trade. Like did Portland prefer ours over Dallas?
I think they just wanted a first rounders. Hart was opting out and they needed something to show for his departure.
franco12 wrote:I wonder what the discussion was with our pick vs. dallas when we made the Portland trade. Like did Portland prefer ours over Dallas?
Good question. At the time I think the Knicks and Mavs were just about in the same slot. My guess is that the Knicks pick may have been seen as the better choice based on recent history/ But I have no idea.
KnickDanger wrote:franco12 wrote:I wonder what the discussion was with our pick vs. dallas when we made the Portland trade. Like did Portland prefer ours over Dallas?Good question. At the time I think the Knicks and Mavs were just about in the same slot. My guess is that the Knicks pick may have been seen as the better choice based on recent history/ But I have no idea.
Our pick has tighter protections than the Dallas pick. From a value standpoint you'd want the Dallas pick. I just think Hart's value leveled out at mid first rounders and a decent wing prospect
BigDaddyG wrote:KnickDanger wrote:franco12 wrote:I wonder what the discussion was with our pick vs. dallas when we made the Portland trade. Like did Portland prefer ours over Dallas?Good question. At the time I think the Knicks and Mavs were just about in the same slot. My guess is that the Knicks pick may have been seen as the better choice based on recent history/ But I have no idea.
Our pick has tighter protections than the Dallas pick. From a value standpoint you'd want the Dallas pick. I just think Hart's value leveled out at mid first rounders and a decent wing prospect
Getting a player like Josh hart is how good teams get better. I get his value being a mid first but you would think hart is an ideal fit for a Lillard team. Not great stuff going over in Portland but to our benefit.
Knixkik wrote:BigDaddyG wrote:KnickDanger wrote:franco12 wrote:I wonder what the discussion was with our pick vs. dallas when we made the Portland trade. Like did Portland prefer ours over Dallas?Good question. At the time I think the Knicks and Mavs were just about in the same slot. My guess is that the Knicks pick may have been seen as the better choice based on recent history/ But I have no idea.
Our pick has tighter protections than the Dallas pick. From a value standpoint you'd want the Dallas pick. I just think Hart's value leveled out at mid first rounders and a decent wing prospect
Getting a player like Josh hart is how good teams get better. I get his value being a mid first but you would think hart is an ideal fit for a Lillard team. Not great stuff going over in Portland but to our benefit.
No doubt. But Portland has to pay Grant and something most of happened to make them believe they weren't resigning Hart. From their perspective, you gotta believe that they'd think something is better than nothing. Another thing is that Cam plus two second rounders might've been enough to get Hart last season. The fact that our pic converts to four second rounders if it doesn't convey kinda shows us that the value of pics in general has watered down.
BigDaddyG wrote:Knixkik wrote:BigDaddyG wrote:KnickDanger wrote:franco12 wrote:I wonder what the discussion was with our pick vs. dallas when we made the Portland trade. Like did Portland prefer ours over Dallas?Good question. At the time I think the Knicks and Mavs were just about in the same slot. My guess is that the Knicks pick may have been seen as the better choice based on recent history/ But I have no idea.
Our pick has tighter protections than the Dallas pick. From a value standpoint you'd want the Dallas pick. I just think Hart's value leveled out at mid first rounders and a decent wing prospect
Getting a player like Josh hart is how good teams get better. I get his value being a mid first but you would think hart is an ideal fit for a Lillard team. Not great stuff going over in Portland but to our benefit.
No doubt. But Portland has to pay Grant and something most of happened to make them believe they weren't resigning Hart. From their perspective, you gotta believe that they'd think something is better than nothing. Another thing is that Cam plus two second rounders might've been enough to get Hart last season. The fact that our pic converts to four second rounders if it doesn't convey kinda shows us that the value of pics in general has watered down.
1sts are valuable. 2nds lost value this season
Caseloads wrote:BigDaddyG wrote:Knixkik wrote:BigDaddyG wrote:KnickDanger wrote:franco12 wrote:I wonder what the discussion was with our pick vs. dallas when we made the Portland trade. Like did Portland prefer ours over Dallas?Good question. At the time I think the Knicks and Mavs were just about in the same slot. My guess is that the Knicks pick may have been seen as the better choice based on recent history/ But I have no idea.
Our pick has tighter protections than the Dallas pick. From a value standpoint you'd want the Dallas pick. I just think Hart's value leveled out at mid first rounders and a decent wing prospect
Getting a player like Josh hart is how good teams get better. I get his value being a mid first but you would think hart is an ideal fit for a Lillard team. Not great stuff going over in Portland but to our benefit.
No doubt. But Portland has to pay Grant and something most of happened to make them believe they weren't resigning Hart. From their perspective, you gotta believe that they'd think something is better than nothing. Another thing is that Cam plus two second rounders might've been enough to get Hart last season. The fact that our pic converts to four second rounders if it doesn't convey kinda shows us that the value of pics in general has watered down.1sts are valuable. 2nds lost value this season
Picks in general still have value. But pay attention to the next time a nonstarter like OG gets trade. The price in first round picks will surprise you.