Knicks · This is how tough drafting is for any organization (page 1)

martin @ 12/8/2023 11:23 AM

Hindsight is 20/20 yada, yada.

My assumption is that GSW has been one of the better run organizations out there. Good at spotting, drafting, and developing talent - witness Steph, Klay, Green. Even Wiggins to a degree early on after DRussell swap.

Myers also had the #2 pick in 2020 draft (and went with Wiseman), #7 and #14 in 2021 (Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody). He loved Hali in 2020 and still passed him over. Following year, he has Franz Wagner (#8) sitting right there, a player who at the time I thought really matched their style of play. In 2021, #15 is Alperen Sengün and #16 is Trey Murphy, two more guys who seem to fit their system perfectly too.

Wiseman, Kuminga, Moody instead of Hali, Franz Wagner, Sengun.

That's the reality of scouting, even for "well run" organizations.

BigDaddyG @ 12/8/2023 12:38 PM
martin wrote:

Hindsight is 20/20 yada, yada.

My assumption is that GSW has been one of the better run organizations out there. Good at spotting, drafting, and developing talent - witness Steph, Klay, Green. Even Wiggins to a degree early on after DRussell swap.

Myers also had the #2 pick in 2020 draft (and went with Wiseman), #7 and #14 in 2021 (Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody). He loved Hali in 2020 and still passed him over. Following year, he has Franz Wagner (#8) sitting right there, a player who at the time I thought really matched their style of play. In 2021, #15 is Alperen Sengün and #16 is Trey Murphy, two more guys who seem to fit their system perfectly too.

Wiseman, Kuminga, Moody instead of Hali, Franz Wagner, Sengun.

That's the reality of scouting, even for "well run" organizations.


The Warriors transitioned into different regimes during the Steph, Klay and Dray drafts. I think one thing to point out is the shifting of draft strategies. The warriors seemed to be more at ease drafting for ceiling in the early years when they had nothing to lose. For example, the fact that they had Monte Ellis didn't make them reconsider drafting Steph. That strategy shifted after the titles. They drafted for need rather than talent. Wiseman had plenty of red flags. Even then I was on the Ball bandwagon. Ball, admittedly, had red flags as well but the talent was undeniable. I thought this was the classic lesson learned from the Bowie/Jordan draft, but they clenched up and went the safe route. I won't kill them for passing over Hal because a number of teams, including us, did the same. I will kill them for the unimaginative Moody pick. Look back at the scouting reports and you'll see most had him as a high floor, low ceiling player. A safe pick.
martin @ 12/8/2023 12:59 PM
BigDaddyG wrote:
martin wrote:

Hindsight is 20/20 yada, yada.

My assumption is that GSW has been one of the better run organizations out there. Good at spotting, drafting, and developing talent - witness Steph, Klay, Green. Even Wiggins to a degree early on after DRussell swap.

Myers also had the #2 pick in 2020 draft (and went with Wiseman), #7 and #14 in 2021 (Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody). He loved Hali in 2020 and still passed him over. Following year, he has Franz Wagner (#8) sitting right there, a player who at the time I thought really matched their style of play. In 2021, #15 is Alperen Sengün and #16 is Trey Murphy, two more guys who seem to fit their system perfectly too.

Wiseman, Kuminga, Moody instead of Hali, Franz Wagner, Sengun.

That's the reality of scouting, even for "well run" organizations.


The Warriors transitioned into different regimes during the Steph, Klay and Dray drafts. I think one thing to point out is the shifting of draft strategies. The warriors seemed to be more at ease drafting for ceiling in the early years when they had nothing to lose. For example, the fact that they had Monte Ellis didn't make them reconsider drafting Steph. That strategy shifted after the titles. They drafted for need rather than talent. Wiseman had plenty of red flags. Even then I was on the Ball bandwagon. Ball, admittedly, had red flags as well but the talent was undeniable. I thought this was the classic lesson learned from the Bowie/Jordan draft, but they clenched up and went the safe route. I won't kill them for passing over Hal because a number of teams, including us, did the same. I will kill them for the unimaginative Moody pick. Look back at the scouting reports and you'll see most had him as a high floor, low ceiling player. A safe pick.

Oh for sure on that.

But it does go to show how hard it is to gauge and measure talent and ceiling. Not for nothing, but Sacramento had Hali in their locker room and gym for a year and a half and still probably couldn't predict this level of ceiling for him.

Nalod @ 12/8/2023 1:33 PM
martin wrote:
BigDaddyG wrote:
martin wrote:

Hindsight is 20/20 yada, yada.

My assumption is that GSW has been one of the better run organizations out there. Good at spotting, drafting, and developing talent - witness Steph, Klay, Green. Even Wiggins to a degree early on after DRussell swap.

Myers also had the #2 pick in 2020 draft (and went with Wiseman), #7 and #14 in 2021 (Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody). He loved Hali in 2020 and still passed him over. Following year, he has Franz Wagner (#8) sitting right there, a player who at the time I thought really matched their style of play. In 2021, #15 is Alperen Sengün and #16 is Trey Murphy, two more guys who seem to fit their system perfectly too.

Wiseman, Kuminga, Moody instead of Hali, Franz Wagner, Sengun.

That's the reality of scouting, even for "well run" organizations.


The Warriors transitioned into different regimes during the Steph, Klay and Dray drafts. I think one thing to point out is the shifting of draft strategies. The warriors seemed to be more at ease drafting for ceiling in the early years when they had nothing to lose. For example, the fact that they had Monte Ellis didn't make them reconsider drafting Steph. That strategy shifted after the titles. They drafted for need rather than talent. Wiseman had plenty of red flags. Even then I was on the Ball bandwagon. Ball, admittedly, had red flags as well but the talent was undeniable. I thought this was the classic lesson learned from the Bowie/Jordan draft, but they clenched up and went the safe route. I won't kill them for passing over Hal because a number of teams, including us, did the same. I will kill them for the unimaginative Moody pick. Look back at the scouting reports and you'll see most had him as a high floor, low ceiling player. A safe pick.

Oh for sure on that.

But it does go to show how hard it is to gauge and measure talent and ceiling. Not for nothing, but Sacramento had Hali in their locker room and gym for a year and a half and still probably couldn't predict this level of ceiling for him.


They had Fox in front of him and perhaps they could not pay both. Sabonis is still an allstar and completed that team also.
Last year it looked like Sac stole sabonis. This year its the other way around. it was a win-win. but lets not forget coaching, styles and other players matter.
Heild is doing really well but he was salary fodder prior.

Good post, despite all of warriors draft issues they won a title two years ago!
Its hard to draft. In hindsight its easy. Fans are brilliant.
we get to pick/mention two or three guys then if one pans out say "I picked him!"

HofstraBBall @ 12/9/2023 7:48 AM
martin wrote:

Hindsight is 20/20 yada, yada.

My assumption is that GSW has been one of the better run organizations out there. Good at spotting, drafting, and developing talent - witness Steph, Klay, Green. Even Wiggins to a degree early on after DRussell swap.

Myers also had the #2 pick in 2020 draft (and went with Wiseman), #7 and #14 in 2021 (Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody). He loved Hali in 2020 and still passed him over. Following year, he has Franz Wagner (#8) sitting right there, a player who at the time I thought really matched their style of play. In 2021, #15 is Alperen Sengün and #16 is Trey Murphy, two more guys who seem to fit their system perfectly too.

Wiseman, Kuminga, Moody instead of Hali, Franz Wagner, Sengun.

That's the reality of scouting, even for "well run" organizations.

Let's not forget that the right situation is key for how a young player's development/perceived success.

Kid that gets picked by a team in need and who can give him a lot of minutes at his position, will have a much bigger opportunity to excel/improve than a kid who goes to a stacked competitive roster
who gives him little time. Wagner on another team but the Magic may not have developed the same.
Haliburton picked by a team that did not give him the reins out the gate may have not developed the same.

Alpha1971 @ 12/9/2023 7:31 PM
HofstraBBall wrote:
martin wrote:

Hindsight is 20/20 yada, yada.

My assumption is that GSW has been one of the better run organizations out there. Good at spotting, drafting, and developing talent - witness Steph, Klay, Green. Even Wiggins to a degree early on after DRussell swap.

Myers also had the #2 pick in 2020 draft (and went with Wiseman), #7 and #14 in 2021 (Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody). He loved Hali in 2020 and still passed him over. Following year, he has Franz Wagner (#8) sitting right there, a player who at the time I thought really matched their style of play. In 2021, #15 is Alperen Sengün and #16 is Trey Murphy, two more guys who seem to fit their system perfectly too.

Wiseman, Kuminga, Moody instead of Hali, Franz Wagner, Sengun.

That's the reality of scouting, even for "well run" organizations.

Let's not forget that the right situation is key for how a young player's development/perceived success.

Kid that gets picked by a team in need and who can give him a lot of minutes at his position, will have a much bigger opportunity to excel/improve than a kid who goes to a stacked competitive roster
who gives him little time. Wagner on another team but the Magic may not have developed the same.
Haliburton picked by a team that did not give him the reins out the gate may have not developed the same.

Your right that the predetermined outcome is a fallacy. Just because a player excels on one team doesn't mean he will on another. However, would Haliburton not had a better chance to prosper on the Knicks more then Obi Toppin. What was the logic ? Behind that draft. I admit to going with it, what choice did I have. I am a Knicks fan wish for the best. But explain to me how the front office on its first draft pick blow the chance to get an all star pg when we had Elfrid Payton ahead of him ? Even if we knew we would get Brunson eventually why not draft Haliburton to pair him with Brunson or to trade after we got Brunson? Could it be because Rose's son represented Obi ? Has Leon done a good job overall, yes. But that first pic of Obi over Haliburton is a huge stain. Drafting IQ is a consolation like when we drafted Mitch in the second round after first drafting Knox. But Leon blew a chance to take the team to another level from the onset

Alpha1971 @ 12/9/2023 7:38 PM
Teams like Golden State made errors but they didn't blow it when it came to Curry and their other all stars. They snagged three all NBA level players. That gives them a pass. The Knicks under Leon Rose had an all star fall to the at 8 and struck out. I laughed at Steven A Smiths reaction the night we passed on Haliburton. But turns out he was right. Many fans were. If Leon was wrong about that pick he is likely wrong about lots of his decisions going forward too. That's why we should t be inherently inclined to trust in him blindly
martin @ 12/9/2023 7:50 PM
Alpha1971 wrote:Teams like Golden State made errors but they didn't blow it when it came to Curry and their other all stars. They snagged three all NBA level players. That gives them a pass. The Knicks under Leon Rose had an all star fall to the at 8 and struck out. I laughed at Steven A Smiths reaction the night we passed on Haliburton. But turns out he was right. Many fans were. If Leon was wrong about that pick he is likely wrong about lots of his decisions going forward too. That's why we should t be inherently inclined to trust in him blindly

This is some straight voodoo magic right here, with a side of whatever I’m high on and it’s WORKING

Sing it loud, song it proud

Alpha1971 @ 12/9/2023 8:10 PM
martin wrote:
Alpha1971 wrote:Teams like Golden State made errors but they didn't blow it when it came to Curry and their other all stars. They snagged three all NBA level players. That gives them a pass. The Knicks under Leon Rose had an all star fall to the at 8 and struck out. I laughed at Steven A Smiths reaction the night we passed on Haliburton. But turns out he was right. Many fans were. If Leon was wrong about that pick he is likely wrong about lots of his decisions going forward too. That's why we should t be inherently inclined to trust in him blindly

This is some straight voodoo magic right here, with a side of whatever I’m high on and it’s WORKING

Sing it loud, song it proud

Your rhetorical strategy is to attempt to demean others and gaslight people who disagree with you. You defend Leon Rose like your paid to. If you are great. If your not then, all right, maybe he gave you a puppy for Christmas. Do you, but your not fooling anyone or intimidating anyone either

martin @ 12/9/2023 9:07 PM
Alpha1971 wrote:
martin wrote:
Alpha1971 wrote:Teams like Golden State made errors but they didn't blow it when it came to Curry and their other all stars. They snagged three all NBA level players. That gives them a pass. The Knicks under Leon Rose had an all star fall to the at 8 and struck out. I laughed at Steven A Smiths reaction the night we passed on Haliburton. But turns out he was right. Many fans were. If Leon was wrong about that pick he is likely wrong about lots of his decisions going forward too. That's why we should t be inherently inclined to trust in him blindly

This is some straight voodoo magic right here, with a side of whatever I’m high on and it’s WORKING

Sing it loud, song it proud

Your rhetorical strategy is to attempt to demean others and gaslight people who disagree with you. You defend Leon Rose like your paid to. If you are great. If your not then, all right, maybe he gave you a puppy for Christmas. Do you, but your not fooling anyone or intimidating anyone either

It’s Saturday night! Time to celebrate!!!

Chandler @ 12/11/2023 11:31 AM
One can make the case that we might be better at FAs and trades than drafting

Maybe we're better off knowing our strengths and trading those picks for players who have some NBA experience and who we think are ready for the next step up

We do seem to do better drafting with later picks where we are focusing on some identifiable trait rather than swinging for the fences

SergioNYK @ 12/11/2023 12:25 PM
A lot of drafting is dumb luck but I do think the teams that hit more often then not do their homework. And that includes extensive scouting, especially in person. I will never ever forgive or understand how Phil Jackson drafted Ntilikina when he never went to see him play in person.

Unfair or not I do think this current regime values personal relationships way too much too. We desperately needed a PG in 2020 and the Haliburton was right there. I do believe we drafted Obi largely because his agent was also Leon's son.

BigDaddyG @ 12/11/2023 12:34 PM
SergioNYK wrote:A lot of drafting is dumb luck but I do think the teams that hit more often then not do their homework. And that includes extensive scouting, especially in person. I will never ever forgive or understand how Phil Jackson drafted Ntilikina when he never went to see him play in person.

Unfair or not I do think this current regime values personal relationships way too much too. We desperately needed a PG in 2020 and the Haliburton was right there. I do believe we drafted Obi largely because his agent was also Leon's son.


I think that played a part, but I honestly think the team was heading toward a rebuild and was planning to unload Jules prior to the season. Randle's season came out of left field.
blkexec @ 12/11/2023 12:54 PM
I think drafting for this organization that holds relationships as a high regard, we would’ve traded Halliburton for Brunson, due to relationships and Jabs talent of course. so this topic is a mute point.

I believe the difficult part is finding a THIBS player who fits in THIBS system.

If this was 1980s there would’ve been plenty of THIBS players to choose from. But it’s 2024 and that 80s play style is not popular these days. Especially since almost every nba player are walking millionaires with guaranteed money.

martin @ 12/22/2023 8:43 PM
Coda

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