Knicks · Knicks traded for Towns (finally official 10/1) (page 30)

DLeethal @ 10/1/2024 2:11 PM
VDesai wrote:While I still say to ignore the win totals and looking at the rankings - I don't really know how you trust a model that on paper predicts the Cavs to be the 2nd best team in the league and better than the Knicks, Sixers and Bucks. But that the same time, the Cavs were at half strength most of the year and still pushed the 50 win mark, so maybe they are better than everyone thinks.

IMO Cavs are gonna be a great regular season team this year. They are kind of built for that marathon. Those rankings are awful though, even if you remove the Knicks from the equation.

Nalod @ 10/1/2024 2:29 PM
DLeethal wrote:
VDesai wrote:While I still say to ignore the win totals and looking at the rankings - I don't really know how you trust a model that on paper predicts the Cavs to be the 2nd best team in the league and better than the Knicks, Sixers and Bucks. But that the same time, the Cavs were at half strength most of the year and still pushed the 50 win mark, so maybe they are better than everyone thinks.

IMO Cavs are gonna be a great regular season team this year. They are kind of built for that marathon. Those rankings are awful though, even if you remove the Knicks from the equation.

YOu still got that beatdown we gave them on the mind? Cavs can be one of those teams with Indy and Orlando that can rise. Likewise we don't stay healthy its all a big question mark come playoff time if we don't get a big sample. Jarett Allen could not play and the Mitchell/Garland thing might never really work, or they can keep tweeking. New coaching might help. Mobley maturing into his potential takes that team to another level. Its first days of camp, all question marks!

BigDaddyG @ 10/1/2024 2:32 PM
DLeethal wrote:
VDesai wrote:While I still say to ignore the win totals and looking at the rankings - I don't really know how you trust a model that on paper predicts the Cavs to be the 2nd best team in the league and better than the Knicks, Sixers and Bucks. But that the same time, the Cavs were at half strength most of the year and still pushed the 50 win mark, so maybe they are better than everyone thinks.

IMO Cavs are gonna be a great regular season team this year. They are kind of built for that marathon. Those rankings are awful though, even if you remove the Knicks from the equation.


I think the win totals are off, but I don't think order is crazy. I'm still not convinced by the Cavs wing depth tho. Indiana, with their young legs and run and gun style could be regular season marvels. I don't really care them in the playoffs, but is it really out of the question to say they could get to the high 40s, maybe 50 wins if Hal stays healthy? The Bucks? Who knows. There's a reality where Doc gets them to gell with a full off season to game plan. There's another reality where Dame and Middleton hit the wall and the team can't get it together.
Rookie @ 10/1/2024 2:56 PM
EwingsGlass wrote:
EwingsGlass wrote:
firefly wrote:
BigDaddyG wrote:
DLeethal wrote:
ToddTT wrote:
BigDaddyG wrote:
Nalod wrote:
BigDaddyG wrote:
HofstraBBall wrote:
martin wrote:

I was stating to feel better .

2024 Salaries:
Horford $9,5M
Towns $59M
Olynyk $13M
Reid $13M


But we finally have a true stretch 5!

And this is one of the things that has me questioning the deal other 5s,?. Can you call yourself a stretch if you don't guard other 5s? Whats stopping other teams from just sticking their version of "OG"on KAT? I dunno. Nothing will get answered until camp starts.

Kat is long. He shoots over the wing players. If "OG" smothers Kat, where is "OG's" man? Oh, Mikal or our OG is not open! I know you want to hate the deal but c'mon man, nobody is saying this is a perfect team.

Want to hate the deal? It comes down to this, this is the final major move this team can make due to cap restrictions. If they were going to make an deal like this, I'd like to think the team raised it's odds to win a title. I don't feel closer to Boston and, barring injuries, I feel the team took a step below the 76ers. I get it. We're all Knicks fans and we want the team to do well. But covering the obvious deficiencies this team now has with unfettered piles of BS optimism does make them go away. Thibs has done enough to earn our trust so I hope he figures something out. I'll leave it at that. Someone should do an official welcome to NY thread for KAT when the deal becomes official.

Jesus what a party pooper!

Pretty spot on though.

Vegas likes the move. Knicks leapfrogged Philly and Denver and has 3rd best title odds now, and just a hair behind 2nd (OKC).

This better be on every dressing room wall. Bring. It. On.

Flawed analytics. Someone should get told to do their homework again. They literally have every top team regressing.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_...

My annual projections combine box score numbers from my SCHOENE projection system, adjusted plus-minus data and my guesses at rotations for every team based on current injuries.

After a dismal year for the projections, which correctly predicted just nine of 30 teams relative to their over/under win totals last season, I spent much of this summer revisiting the model. The big change was weighting the luck-adjusted RAPM portion of player projections, based on data from Krishna Narsu, using minutes played over the previous three seasons. This adjustment, and other smaller ones, produced better out-of-sample results in testing.

Basically saying after his system performed terribly last year, he adjusted it to make it more random. What he is left with is an absolute regression to the mean where teams are collapsed towards 42 wins. This effectively makes it less wrong, not more right. Meaning, he will be wrong by less standard deviations but will have no chance of predicting the outliers correctly. I think this is closer to the least number of wins a team will have on the upper side of 42 and the most wins a team could have on the lower side of 42

How do you get .4 wins? This looks like some computer generated garbage based on a formula some desk jockey inputted into his lap top.

martin @ 10/1/2024 3:47 PM
EwingsGlass @ 10/1/2024 3:59 PM
Rookie wrote:
EwingsGlass wrote:
EwingsGlass wrote:
firefly wrote:
BigDaddyG wrote:
DLeethal wrote:
ToddTT wrote:
BigDaddyG wrote:
Nalod wrote:
BigDaddyG wrote:
HofstraBBall wrote:
martin wrote:

I was stating to feel better .

2024 Salaries:
Horford $9,5M
Towns $59M
Olynyk $13M
Reid $13M


But we finally have a true stretch 5!

And this is one of the things that has me questioning the deal other 5s,?. Can you call yourself a stretch if you don't guard other 5s? Whats stopping other teams from just sticking their version of "OG"on KAT? I dunno. Nothing will get answered until camp starts.

Kat is long. He shoots over the wing players. If "OG" smothers Kat, where is "OG's" man? Oh, Mikal or our OG is not open! I know you want to hate the deal but c'mon man, nobody is saying this is a perfect team.

Want to hate the deal? It comes down to this, this is the final major move this team can make due to cap restrictions. If they were going to make an deal like this, I'd like to think the team raised it's odds to win a title. I don't feel closer to Boston and, barring injuries, I feel the team took a step below the 76ers. I get it. We're all Knicks fans and we want the team to do well. But covering the obvious deficiencies this team now has with unfettered piles of BS optimism does make them go away. Thibs has done enough to earn our trust so I hope he figures something out. I'll leave it at that. Someone should do an official welcome to NY thread for KAT when the deal becomes official.

Jesus what a party pooper!

Pretty spot on though.

Vegas likes the move. Knicks leapfrogged Philly and Denver and has 3rd best title odds now, and just a hair behind 2nd (OKC).

This better be on every dressing room wall. Bring. It. On.

Flawed analytics. Someone should get told to do their homework again. They literally have every top team regressing.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_...

My annual projections combine box score numbers from my SCHOENE projection system, adjusted plus-minus data and my guesses at rotations for every team based on current injuries.

After a dismal year for the projections, which correctly predicted just nine of 30 teams relative to their over/under win totals last season, I spent much of this summer revisiting the model. The big change was weighting the luck-adjusted RAPM portion of player projections, based on data from Krishna Narsu, using minutes played over the previous three seasons. This adjustment, and other smaller ones, produced better out-of-sample results in testing.

Basically saying after his system performed terribly last year, he adjusted it to make it more random. What he is left with is an absolute regression to the mean where teams are collapsed towards 42 wins. This effectively makes it less wrong, not more right. Meaning, he will be wrong by less standard deviations but will have no chance of predicting the outliers correctly. I think this is closer to the least number of wins a team will have on the upper side of 42 and the most wins a team could have on the lower side of 42

How do you get .4 wins? This looks like some computer generated garbage based on a formula some desk jockey inputted into his lap top.

Looks like he simulated games using his luck adjusted metrics and these were the averages.

martin @ 10/1/2024 6:03 PM
EwingsGlass @ 10/1/2024 7:34 PM
martin wrote:

Just wait for him to put his head down. Then take the ball.

Panos @ 10/1/2024 7:57 PM
EwingsGlass wrote:
martin wrote:
Just wait for him to put his head down. Then take the ball.
... and pull a hammy
Uptown @ 10/1/2024 8:18 PM
It's Official!!!

ToddTT @ 10/1/2024 8:18 PM
Panos wrote:
EwingsGlass wrote:
martin wrote:
Just wait for him to put his head down. Then take the ball.
... and pull a hammy

martin @ 10/1/2024 8:47 PM
martin @ 10/1/2024 8:47 PM
martin @ 10/1/2024 8:48 PM
martin @ 10/1/2024 8:48 PM
Clean @ 10/1/2024 8:50 PM

He is called cap god for a reason.
martin @ 10/1/2024 8:51 PM
martin @ 10/1/2024 8:51 PM
martin @ 10/1/2024 8:52 PM
Incredible

martin @ 10/1/2024 8:54 PM
GustavBahler @ 10/1/2024 8:57 PM
martin wrote:

Who is the kid Leon brought in who was said to be a cap prodigy? Looks like he's living up to the hype

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