Cano is a great example in support of the statistical argument. I argued all off-season he'd return to his career average at a little above an .800 OPS. He exceeded that by a little--probably due to the new Yankees' stadium, improved players hitting around him, and some random statistical fluctuation. I think we both agree "human error" needs to be taken into account but you'd have to define what you mean by the term first. I believe what you're calling human error is what I'm arguing is often just random statistical fluctuations that we over-analyze.
what the hell is random statistical fluctuation?
I could have guessed the last powerball numbers, but due to some random stastical fluctuation, my guess was off.
nyk4ever wrote:what the hell is random statistical fluctuation?
it means CC is gonna bomb all over the phils tonight...LETS GO YANKEES
jimimou wrote:nyk4ever wrote:what the hell is random statistical fluctuation?
it means CC is gonna bomb all over the phils tonight...LETS GO YANKEES
I'm f'n stoked for tonight man. The rain better not wash this game out.
nyk4ever wrote:what the hell is random statistical fluctuation?I could have guessed the last powerball numbers, but due to some random stastical fluctuation, my guess was off.
The discussion here on random versus systematic error (I was using the lay term of "fluctuation" instead) explains it pretty well although you might need to take stats classes to better understand it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_erro...
nyk4ever wrote:jimimou wrote:nyk4ever wrote:what the hell is random statistical fluctuation?
it means CC is gonna bomb all over the phils tonight...LETS GO YANKEES
I'm f'n stoked for tonight man. The rain better not wash this game out.
I've been waiting all week for it man! Let's hope for another great CC performance! Cheers.
accuweather says rain will stop around 7pm and only 30% chance afterwards. we will have a game 1 tonight fellas no worries...
Hinske & Bruney in, Cervelli & Guzman out.
I was 14 years old at that time, and knew very little about sports strategy in any sport, including basketball. However, I do vaguely remember being slightly dissapointed that Tino was sitting because he was one of my favorite players. However, if it was the 27 year old me, I would have stuck with Tino and Boggs, b/c they are the better players. I don't remember how bad Boggs was slumping but I would have stuck with him regardless. It's my belief that you have to go with the better players, unless those better players just aren't good anymore. Was Charlie Hayes really better than Wade Boggs at that time. I would say probably not.
But they won so Torre deserves the credit for pushing those buttons that I wouldn't have pressed. If we lost doing it my way, I would have taken all of the blame.
Let me ask you something TMS. Bernie Williams, in 1998, had I believe just 1 hit in the World Series. If that series was much closer, would you have put Chad Curtis in for him?
Back to Swisher. In my opinion, the gap between Swisher and Gardner isn't as large as people might make it out to be anyway. Swisher made a couple of big throws in the outfield this series, but Gardner is still a better outfielder and so is Melky. Plus, Gardner can get on base, so he's no pushover at the plate, plus he has the blazing speed. So while I wasn't remotely dissapointed that we stuck with Swisher, I would have understood putting Gardner in.
Still glad they stuck with Swisher. However, if they put Gardner in instead, I wouldn't have been mad. Dig it? 
Let me ask you something TMS. Bernie Williams, in 1998, had I believe just 1 hit in the World Series. If that series was much closer, would you have put Chad Curtis in for him?
we swept that series & Bernie was not struggling as badly as Swisher is now... at least he had 3 RBI's in those 4 games & got on base 3 times... not great but the way the team was steamrolling teams that year, it wasn't a major issue... when it's a close series & 1 of your players is badly struggling, the problem becomes much more magnified, & yes, if Bernie was struggling as badly as Swisher is right now, i might have considered sitting him for a game or 2 in favor of Curtis, because we can't afford to have an automatic out in the middle of our lineup in games as important as these... i mean goodness, in 9 post season games this year Swisher's batting .125 with a .378 OPS & 1 rbi... that's a killer that u will definitely be looking back on if we happen to lose a series.
if u recall, Chad Curtis hit 2 big HR's in the '99 World Series as a backup player to Ricky Ledee... sometimes playing your best players isn't necessarily the best answer, u also have to look at matchups & how those players are currently performing... ARod went 0 for 18 with RISP before this postseason, u don't think someone else could have done a better job than that? obviously no one's gonna sit ARod in favor of any bench player, but u get my point... it's not a mistake to sit your best players sometimes especially when they're clearly pressing & their timing is way off... right now i think Swisher's in that mode... he's swinging late & underneath fastballs right down the middle, & he's swinging early & over breaking balls.
the one encouraging factor here is that Swisher has pretty good career numbers facing Cliff Lee, so i'm not saying i'd sit him in game 1, but if he continues to struggle in this series, i think it's time he sits in favor of Gardner for a game, especially against a righty pitcher (Pedro)... Gardner can bring an added dimension of speed & give Pedro something to think about if he gets on base... plus he brings much better defense in the field, which can win u games just like a HR from Swisher can... Gardner is also a much better situational hitter than Swisher is & gives u more flexibility to play small ball... it's an option that i think should definitely be considered if Swisher doesn't get his act straight & fast.
so pedro was just being interviewed and he said that "i am the most influencial person to walk into yankee stadium"
jimimou wrote:so pedro was just being interviewed and he said that "i am the most influencial person to walk into yankee stadium"
Hasn't he ever heard of Jay Z?!?!
CC in some trouble in the 1st... come on, get the final out!
good job... 1st inning nerves hopefully... let's get some runs in!
Wow, scary first inning but we get out of it with no runs scored.
cc just had nerves.......
Jeter a bit overmatched in his first at bat
that spiked curveball is nasty
Teix better wake TFU this series!
