Knicks · Lin from a basketball perspective..... (page 2)

Bonn1997 wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Solace wrote:Wow, talk about bias. Give me a break. Manipulate the statistics to prove a point. That was really poor quality. Please don't waste my time with this again. Thanks.

+1

Do you feel it's not fair evaluating Lin based on his numbers under Woodson when Woodson is the coach even though almost 30% of his games were under Woodson?

Yes, discarding data (in this case from MDA) and relying on a smaller (in this case very small) sample is almost never a good idea.

OK, fair enough, just for arguments sake here are Lin's and Felton's numbers under MDA

Lin/MDA
19 Games
20.3 PPG 8.4 AST 4.8 TO 2.4 STL
.453 FG%
.350 3PT%

Felton/MDA
54 Games
17.1 PPG 9 AST 3.3 TO 1.8 STL
.423 FG%
.328 3PT%

It would help to have more data but I remember Felton barely averaging a point per shot, which makes him just a chucker.

Really? Interesing when you consider that under MDA Lin averaged 15.7 field goal attempts per game and Felton average 14.8

That's exactly the issue with Lin. His track record is 26 games.

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Solace wrote:Wow, talk about bias. Give me a break. Manipulate the statistics to prove a point. That was really poor quality. Please don't waste my time with this again. Thanks.

+1

Do you feel it's not fair evaluating Lin based on his numbers under Woodson when Woodson is the coach even though almost 30% of his games were under Woodson?

Yes, discarding data (in this case from MDA) and relying on a smaller (in this case very small) sample is almost never a good idea.

OK, fair enough, just for arguments sake here are Lin's and Felton's numbers under MDA

Lin/MDA
19 Games
20.3 PPG 8.4 AST 4.8 TO 2.4 STL
.453 FG%
.350 3PT%

Felton/MDA
54 Games
17.1 PPG 9 AST 3.3 TO 1.8 STL
.423 FG%
.328 3PT%

It would help to have more data but I remember Felton barely averaging a point per shot, which makes him just a chucker.

Really? Interesing when you consider that under MDA Lin averaged 15.7 field goal attempts per game and Felton average 14.8

That's exactly the issue with Lin. His track record is 26 games.

Regardless of sample sizes, shots and turnovers.

The fact is Lin saved our season last year. He took clutch shots and made players around him better- not simply by passing them the ball when they were open, but in terms of motivating them, inspiring them.

Felton did fine here under MDA, but I never witnessed that kind of performance from him- and we could probably go over his entire career from the time he picked up a basketball for the first time.

That's not to say Felton can't be a valuable piece of the team- just he's never shown the ability to be a leader, and Lin did.

Must be why Dolan let him go, because its a hard trait to see.

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Solace wrote:Wow, talk about bias. Give me a break. Manipulate the statistics to prove a point. That was really poor quality. Please don't waste my time with this again. Thanks.

+1

Do you feel it's not fair evaluating Lin based on his numbers under Woodson when Woodson is the coach even though almost 30% of his games were under Woodson?

Yes, discarding data (in this case from MDA) and relying on a smaller (in this case very small) sample is almost never a good idea.

OK, fair enough, just for arguments sake here are Lin's and Felton's numbers under MDA

Lin/MDA
19 Games
20.3 PPG 8.4 AST 4.8 TO 2.4 STL
.453 FG%
.350 3PT%

Felton/MDA
54 Games
17.1 PPG 9 AST 3.3 TO 1.8 STL
.423 FG%
.328 3PT%

It would help to have more data but I remember Felton barely averaging a point per shot, which makes him just a chucker.

Really? Interesing when you consider that under MDA Lin averaged 15.7 field goal attempts per game and Felton average 14.8

That's exactly the issue with Lin. His track record is 26 games.

Lin's track record is 64 games and 1225 minutes. It's a small sample but he's played well in those minutes. Per 36 min, he has averaged 17.3 PPG on 13.4 shots, 7.6 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 4.2 turnovers but 2.6 steals, and 0.5 blocks.

Bonn1997 wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Solace wrote:Wow, talk about bias. Give me a break. Manipulate the statistics to prove a point. That was really poor quality. Please don't waste my time with this again. Thanks.

+1

Do you feel it's not fair evaluating Lin based on his numbers under Woodson when Woodson is the coach even though almost 30% of his games were under Woodson?

Yes, discarding data (in this case from MDA) and relying on a smaller (in this case very small) sample is almost never a good idea.

OK, fair enough, just for arguments sake here are Lin's and Felton's numbers under MDA

Lin/MDA
19 Games
20.3 PPG 8.4 AST 4.8 TO 2.4 STL
.453 FG%
.350 3PT%

Felton/MDA
54 Games
17.1 PPG 9 AST 3.3 TO 1.8 STL
.423 FG%
.328 3PT%

It would help to have more data but I remember Felton barely averaging a point per shot, which makes him just a chucker.

Really? Interesing when you consider that under MDA Lin averaged 15.7 field goal attempts per game and Felton average 14.8

That's exactly the issue with Lin. His track record is 26 games.

Lin's track record is 64 games and 1225 minutes. It's a small sample but he's played well in those minutes. Per 36 min, he has averaged 17.3 PPG on 13.4 shots, 7.6 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 4.2 turnovers but 2.6 steals, and 0.5 blocks.

I'm looking at the 929 minutes he played from the start of Linsanity until his last game under Woodson - 929 minutes. That's 732 under MDA and 197 under Woody.

franco12 wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Solace wrote:Wow, talk about bias. Give me a break. Manipulate the statistics to prove a point. That was really poor quality. Please don't waste my time with this again. Thanks.

+1

Do you feel it's not fair evaluating Lin based on his numbers under Woodson when Woodson is the coach even though almost 30% of his games were under Woodson?

Yes, discarding data (in this case from MDA) and relying on a smaller (in this case very small) sample is almost never a good idea.

OK, fair enough, just for arguments sake here are Lin's and Felton's numbers under MDA

Lin/MDA
19 Games
20.3 PPG 8.4 AST 4.8 TO 2.4 STL
.453 FG%
.350 3PT%

Felton/MDA
54 Games
17.1 PPG 9 AST 3.3 TO 1.8 STL
.423 FG%
.328 3PT%

It would help to have more data but I remember Felton barely averaging a point per shot, which makes him just a chucker.

Really? Interesing when you consider that under MDA Lin averaged 15.7 field goal attempts per game and Felton average 14.8

That's exactly the issue with Lin. His track record is 26 games.

Regardless of sample sizes, shots and turnovers.

The fact is Lin saved our season last year. He took clutch shots and made players around him better- not simply by passing them the ball when they were open, but in terms of motivating them, inspiring them.

Felton did fine here under MDA, but I never witnessed that kind of performance from him- and we could probably go over his entire career from the time he picked up a basketball for the first time.

That's not to say Felton can't be a valuable piece of the team- just he's never shown the ability to be a leader, and Lin did.

Must be why Dolan let him go, because its a hard trait to see.

Absoultely, without Lin we don't make the playoffs. Felton had a ton of similar performaces for the Knicks under MDA. What makes Lin's performances stick out so much more is because the kid came out of nowhere and put together a tremendous string of games. No doubt Lin stepped up when needed but also no doubt he also struggled when he played with Melo, STAT and Chandler.

I loved what Lin did for this team but I also can see that Felton is a good alternative. I'm not saying the Felton is a better overall player, has the same potential or that Lin will not be better than player Felton. What I am saying is that if you leave out everything other than playing the game of basketball, Felton is the better PG for this team right now.

franco12 wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Solace wrote:Wow, talk about bias. Give me a break. Manipulate the statistics to prove a point. That was really poor quality. Please don't waste my time with this again. Thanks.

+1

Do you feel it's not fair evaluating Lin based on his numbers under Woodson when Woodson is the coach even though almost 30% of his games were under Woodson?

Yes, discarding data (in this case from MDA) and relying on a smaller (in this case very small) sample is almost never a good idea.

OK, fair enough, just for arguments sake here are Lin's and Felton's numbers under MDA

Lin/MDA
19 Games
20.3 PPG 8.4 AST 4.8 TO 2.4 STL
.453 FG%
.350 3PT%

Felton/MDA
54 Games
17.1 PPG 9 AST 3.3 TO 1.8 STL
.423 FG%
.328 3PT%

It would help to have more data but I remember Felton barely averaging a point per shot, which makes him just a chucker.

Really? Interesing when you consider that under MDA Lin averaged 15.7 field goal attempts per game and Felton average 14.8

That's exactly the issue with Lin. His track record is 26 games.

Regardless of sample sizes, shots and turnovers.

The fact is Lin saved our season last year. He took clutch shots and made players around him better- not simply by passing them the ball when they were open, but in terms of motivating them, inspiring them.

I hear this alot about Lin and Novak, but who else did Lin make better through inspiration and motivation? Fields? JR Smith?
Just asking, especially since he's going to possibly have the opportunity to do that with Jorts and Jerome Jordan.

franco12 wrote:
Felton did fine here under MDA, but I never witnessed that kind of performance from him- and we could probably go over his entire career from the time he picked up a basketball for the first time.

That's not to say Felton can't be a valuable piece of the team- just he's never shown the ability to be a leader, and Lin did.

Must be why Dolan let him go, because its a hard trait to see.

Felton would be a great backup PG. Why do we have a history of trying to turn backups into starting PG's? Would have been nice to have a larger sample size of Lin as a starter, but I guess we'll get to see that in Houston, with alot less stress on the kid.

Wonder how much better he's going to make Earl Boykins and Kevin Martin and Sean Williams...?

Lin under MDA

perhaps we should look at the combined winning pct of the opponents road record that we played at home

and

the opponents home records that we played on the road

Then, we should do the same for Felton (under MDA)

How can we look at numbers that were attained using a small sample size without looking at the strength of opponent?

mrKnickShot wrote:Lin under MDA

perhaps we should look at the combined winning pct of the opponents road record that we played at home

and

the opponents home records that we played on the road

Then, we should do the same for Felton (under MDA)

How can we look at numbers that were attained using a small sample size without looking at the strength of opponent?

Either way Lin's sample size is going to be small.

Nets (H)
Jazz (H)
Wizzards (A)
Lakers (H)
Wolves (A)
Raptors (A)
Kings (H)
Hornets (H)
Mavs (H)
Nets (H)
Hawks (H)
Heat (A)
Cavs (H)
Celtics (A)
Mavs (A)
Spurs (A)
Bucks (A)
Sixers (H)
Bulls (A)

CashMoney wrote:

mrKnickShot wrote:Lin under MDA

perhaps we should look at the combined winning pct of the opponents road record that we played at home

and

the opponents home records that we played on the road

Then, we should do the same for Felton (under MDA)

How can we look at numbers that were attained using a small sample size without looking at the strength of opponent?

Either way Lin's sample size is going to be small.

Nets (H)
Jazz (H)
Wizzards (A)
Lakers (H)
Wolves (A)
Raptors (A)
Kings (H)
Hornets (H)
Mavs (H)
Nets (H)
Hawks (H)
Heat (A)
Cavs (H)
Celtics (A)
Mavs (A)
Spurs (A)
Bucks (A)
Sixers (H)
Bulls (A)

How Lin did against above .500 teams (if they were < 500 on the road and the game was at the garden, it does not get included)

Also, only including games pre-linsanity where fga > 3

@Houston - 3 for 9

@Miami - 1 for 11
@Boston - 6 for 16
@Dallas - 4 for 13
@SA - 7 for 15
@Chi - 4 for 11
@Ind - 6 for 10
@Phi - 4 for 17

35 for 102

THAT IS AWESOME!! I wonder if the knicks were "smart enough" to figure this out.

You're reducing a career of 455 shots to 102? The other 353 don't count?

Bonn1997 wrote:You're reducing a career of 455 shots to 102? The other 353 don't count?

Did anyone in the world care what he did before NY? He got the ridiculous contract from how he played on the knicks.

This is a very interesting sample size of how he would play against GOOD teams in crunch time.

CashMoney wrote:Either way Lin's sample size is going to be small.

Yes, Felton has a much larger "sample size."

BasketballJones wrote:

CashMoney wrote:Either way Lin's sample size is going to be small.

I have a hunch that Felton's sample will be somewhat bigger

mrKnickShot wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:You're reducing a career of 455 shots to 102? The other 353 don't count?

Did anyone in the world care what he did before NY? He got the ridiculous contract from how he played on the knicks.

This is a very interesting sample size of how he would play against GOOD teams in crunch time.

He took 383 of his career 455 shots for the Knicks.

Only 102 of them came against > .500 opponents/situations

Now that is not a complete judgement of a player but it certainly lends strong insight.

A 34% shooter when we need you most?

Have fun in Houston.

Bonn1997 wrote:You're reducing a career of 455 shots to 102? The other 353 don't count?

Using stats without context is misleading at best and meaningless at worst. How many of those 353 shots were in Garbage Time against end-of-bench players? Since Lin has a small sample size to begin with, the 353 other shots (and minutes played primarily against 3rd string players) are relatively meaningless when projecting how Lin will compare to other starting PG's.

The OP has done a good job in trying to compare how Lin would match up statistically vs. Felton given the same system....based on the limited data from Lin at this point.

Certainly Lin has more upside potential then Felton.......however this is because we do not fully understand what Lin is yet as a player, and we have a much larger performance data pool to draw from in Felton. One could also argue that Lin also has more downside potential then Felton due to the same circumstances. One thing we do know is that Felton comes to NY at roughly half the annualized salary, so in order for Lin to have the same worth to a team, he would have to perform twice as well as Felton.

My feelings have always been that the Knicks should have brought Lin back. This would have been a prudent business decision based on his marketing revenue potential as well as how the Bird rights ruling played in to the Knicks capped out situation. From a roster perspective, they could have used JJ and Gadz to fill a separate hole (perhaps SG?)....and even though they were overpaying for Lin, it would have made the roster stronger.

It's now water under the bridge, time to move on.

Time will tell whether your smaller sample (34%) or the career numbers (44%) are closer to where he ends up in the future. I'm not betting on your smaller sample.

Bonn1997 wrote:Time will tell whether your smaller sample (34%) or the career numbers (44%) are closer to where he ends up in the future. I'm not betting on your smaller sample.

I am sure you are not. But I am betting that he continues to have decent numbers against crappy teams and falters badly against the better teams (as the full season sample size alluded to)

foosballnick, so if Lin makes roughly twice that of Felton, he should "have to perform twice as well as Felton"? In what planet does that logic exist? Does Peyton Manning complete twice the percentage of his passes and throw half the interceptions of those that make half his salary? Does Melo average twice the output of a 10M/yr player? The fact is that players that may average 18 ppg may make twice the salary of a 14 ppg player, and that relatively small difference is what gets rewarded.

mrKnickShot, if you do the same analysis of Melo's stats against good teams will show that he declines a huge amount as well. With infrequent exceptions, this will be the rule no matter who the player. It's because it really is a team game. If the team plays well and wins, many players on that team will have good stats for that game, and the opposite will be true in games that the team loses. It's because it is a TEAM game, and trying to determine how a player will play against good teams by isolating that player's stats (when his stats obviously depend on other teammates to make shots, to give assists, to play well enough to draw defenses to them, etc.) -- it's poor analysis. There are better ways to determine a player's worth -- it takes much more care to see which stats REALLY determine that player's value (read Moneyball, not just watch the movie).

nehemiah wrote:foosballnick, so if Lin makes roughly twice that of Felton, he should "have to perform twice as well as Felton"? In what planet does that logic exist? Does Peyton Manning complete twice the percentage of his passes and throw half the interceptions of those that make half his salary? Does Melo average twice the output of a 10M/yr player? The fact is that players that may average 18 ppg may make twice the salary of a 14 ppg player, and that relatively small difference is what gets rewarded.

mrKnickShot, if you do the same analysis of Melo's stats against good teams will show that he declines a huge amount as well. With infrequent exceptions, this will be the rule no matter who the player. It's because it really is a team game. If the team plays well and wins, many players on that team will have good stats for that game, and the opposite will be true in games that the team loses. It's because it is a TEAM game, and trying to determine how a player will play against good teams by isolating that player's stats (when his stats obviously depend on other teammates to make shots, to give assists, to play well enough to draw defenses to them, etc.) -- it's poor analysis. There are better ways to determine a player's worth -- it takes much more care to see which stats REALLY determine that player's value (read Moneyball, not just watch the movie).

Moneyball doesn't work.

CashMoney wrote:

nehemiah wrote:foosballnick, so if Lin makes roughly twice that of Felton, he should "have to perform twice as well as Felton"? In what planet does that logic exist? Does Peyton Manning complete twice the percentage of his passes and throw half the interceptions of those that make half his salary? Does Melo average twice the output of a 10M/yr player? The fact is that players that may average 18 ppg may make twice the salary of a 14 ppg player, and that relatively small difference is what gets rewarded.

mrKnickShot, if you do the same analysis of Melo's stats against good teams will show that he declines a huge amount as well. With infrequent exceptions, this will be the rule no matter who the player. It's because it really is a team game. If the team plays well and wins, many players on that team will have good stats for that game, and the opposite will be true in games that the team loses. It's because it is a TEAM game, and trying to determine how a player will play against good teams by isolating that player's stats (when his stats obviously depend on other teammates to make shots, to give assists, to play well enough to draw defenses to them, etc.) -- it's poor analysis. There are better ways to determine a player's worth -- it takes much more care to see which stats REALLY determine that player's value (read Moneyball, not just watch the movie).

Moneyball doesn't work.

What?

Isn't it working for Beane, Bonn, and Morey?

nehemiah wrote:foosballnick, so if Lin makes roughly twice that of Felton, he should "have to perform twice as well as Felton"? In what planet does that logic exist? Does Peyton Manning complete twice the percentage of his passes and throw half the interceptions of those that make half his salary? Does Melo average twice the output of a 10M/yr player? The fact is that players that may average 18 ppg may make twice the salary of a 14 ppg player, and that relatively small difference is what gets rewarded.

Sorry - took a bit of creative license to make a point. But yes, player salaries are based on performance (at least to some degree), service time and perceived market value. The point was that Felton is a better value at $4 plus million than Lin is at $8 plus million given their stats to date. Further, in your examples of Peyton Manning and Melo....top players getting top salaries are not only expected to produce statistically, but also win. So yes....in terms of production combined with winning ....Melo is lambasted based on his salary which drives expectations. That's why many here refer to him as Mr. 470 winning percentage. Contrast that to a guy making $10 Million (think our friend Gallinari).....who is applauded for having OK stats and not expected to carry a team through the playoffs. Peyton is played highly as he is considered not only a stat machine (when healthy) but also a QB who leads his team consistently fairly deep into the playoffs.

Regarding the Moneyball reference by another poster.....it does work to an extent in baseball. Since there is no Cap in MLB...the Athletics as a small market team with a low payroll can be successful, but only go so far when outgunned by superstar rosters that comprise the upper teams in baseball. In the NBA...with a cap....the principles of moneyball would certainly also be effective in building a team with complimentary players and managing the cap.