Knicks · Lin from a basketball perspective..... (page 1)

Forgetting the feel good story of Linsanity, the fun it was watching this kid do his thing, Dolan's deep pockets, salary cap penalties and personal feelings aside I wanted to look at things from a pure basketball perspective.

Player A
12.9 PPG 6.4 AST 2.5 TO 1.3 STL
.410 FG%
.329 3PT%

Player B
13.2 PPG 5.4 AST 3.7 TO 1 STL
.428 FG%
.294 3PT%

The numbers are pretty close, there is a 4 year age difference but I have 2 options.

Option 1. I can sign a player for 3 years at $25.1 million who is due $14.8 million in the last year of a 3 year deal. He had a historic run and played great. He has potential but needs to work on his game. Also, there may be hard feelings in the locker room due to the large payout that is due. I'm a getting a player that is going to put up 16-8 a game with 8+ assists per game or a player who is going to get me 12-14 a game with 5-8 assists. Is he an all star in the making, a solid player or a player that is more suited to be a solid back up?

Option 2. I can sign a player for 4 years at $18 million who I know for a fact wants to play for me but is 4 years older. A player who performed for me in the past that was upset when I traded him a few years back. He's coming off of a subpar year but has held himself accountable for that. A player who has 7 years in the league who is going to play hard and I know will give me 12-14 and 5-8 a game who will be a good fit in the locker room. He's not an all star player but is a solid player and the price seems to be right.

Again, from a pure basketball perspective, when presented with the above numbers and options what decision do you make?

First off why are you including games where he played single digit minutes... makes no sense. If it was my choice I would have given Jeremy the max allowable under my terms and not have let him test the market.

I just don't understand how people watched these games and still think he is a backup PG at best. He isn't flashy, he scores quiet points and made the whole team better... mark my words Novak will not be the same 3-point shooter this year as he was last year.

I do like player "B" a lot actually though, I think he will do good things back in NY.

Let me ask you this do you know any Knicks fan that did not enjoy watching the Knicks during Linsanity?

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED??!! ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED??!! Is this not why you are here??

Stevo718 wrote:First off why are you including games where he played single digit minutes... makes no sense. If it was my choice I would have given Jeremy the max allowable under my terms and not have let him test the market.

I just don't understand how people watched these games and still think he is a backup PG at best. He isn't flashy, he scores quiet points and made the whole team better... mark my words Novak will not be the same 3-point shooter this year as he was last year.

I do like player "B" a lot actually though, I think he will do good things back in NY.

Let me ask you this do you know any Knicks fan that did not enjoy watching the Knicks during Linsanity?

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED??!! ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED??!! Is this not why you are here??

Player "B" is actually the PG for the Rockets. Those are Lin's numbers as a starter for the Knicks under Woodson.....28 minutes per game average,. He didn't play single digit minutes in any of those games.

Thank you for the entertainment!

CashMoney wrote:

Stevo718 wrote:First off why are you including games where he played single digit minutes... makes no sense. If it was my choice I would have given Jeremy the max allowable under my terms and not have let him test the market.

I just don't understand how people watched these games and still think he is a backup PG at best. He isn't flashy, he scores quiet points and made the whole team better... mark my words Novak will not be the same 3-point shooter this year as he was last year.

I do like player "B" a lot actually though, I think he will do good things back in NY.

Let me ask you this do you know any Knicks fan that did not enjoy watching the Knicks during Linsanity?

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED??!! ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED??!! Is this not why you are here??

Player "B" is actually the PG for the Rockets. Those are Lin's numbers as a starter for the Knicks under Woodson.....28 minutes per game average,. He didn't play single digit minutes in any of those games.

Thank you for the entertainment!

Figured player B was Lin, the turnovers were a dead give away. Like I said in another thread, I definitely wanted Lin back but he's not so we have to move on. The combination of Kidd and Felton is better than our pg situation was last year, without question. I expect Felton to play much better than he did last year; that situation with the Blazers was a weird one to say the least with McMillian being on the hot seat for quite a while then getting fired. Felton will bounce back big time this year....

CashMoney wrote:

Player "B" is actually the PG for the Rockets. Those are Lin's numbers as a starter for the Knicks under Woodson.....28 minutes per game average,. He didn't play single digit minutes in any of those games.

Thank you for the entertainment!

So you didn't include any of the games he played under D'Antoni in his stats??

BasketballJones wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

Player "B" is actually the PG for the Rockets. Those are Lin's numbers as a starter for the Knicks under Woodson.....28 minutes per game average,. He didn't play single digit minutes in any of those games.

Thank you for the entertainment!

So you didn't include any of the games he played under D'Antoni in his stats??

Nope. I excluded Felton's stats under MDA as well.

If you don't include the numbers under Mike D'Antoni, Lin and Felton are essentially the same player. The only difference is that Felton has 7 or 8 years of production to back it up. Acquiring him made Lin expendable depending on the offer sheet.

y2zipper wrote:If you don't include the numbers under Mike D'Antoni, Lin and Felton are essentially the same player. The only difference is that Felton has 7 or 8 years of production to back it up. Acquiring him made Lin expendable depending on the offer sheet.

It is true. Lin did become expandable. Felton can do all of Lin's tricks on the court just as well.

How much is Feltons contract Ive seen it all over the place. Ive seen 3 years 10 million, 4 years 14 million, 4 years 18 million . I hope its not 18 million

Jmpasq wrote:How much is Feltons contract Ive seen it all over the place. Ive seen 3 years 10 million, 4 years 14 million, 4 years 18 million . I hope its not 18 million

I'm pretty sure it's 4 years $18 million with the 4th year being a player option. I haven't been able to track down the actual yearly breakdown but it must be somewhere on line.

CashMoney wrote:

BasketballJones wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

Player "B" is actually the PG for the Rockets. Those are Lin's numbers as a starter for the Knicks under Woodson.....28 minutes per game average,. He didn't play single digit minutes in any of those games.

Thank you for the entertainment!

So you didn't include any of the games he played under D'Antoni in his stats??

Nope. I excluded Felton's stats under MDA as well.

Whoops! I meant player "A" in the previous post. Its always hard to just compare numbers cause there are so many other factors but I'll tell you this much I haven't seen a bunch of NBA players have this much fun playing together EVER. You can't show that in stats.

Now I'm really confused.

Lin was not a sure thing. But upside he has is unlimited. He can be a very average backup to The Legend of the game.
Felton upside is very limited. On the team with Melo, Stat, and JR it is actually no upside.
At best he can be something like Fisher but I am not sure he has even a half of Fishers brain not talking about 3-poits and veteran leadership.
Next season will put everything in place. We will know next July what Lin is and what Felton is.

Wow, talk about bias. Give me a break. Manipulate the statistics to prove a point. That was really poor quality. Please don't waste my time with this again. Thanks.

Another good way to do this analysis is to compare Lin (his worst 10 games of his career, including his stints at Golden State and Houston), and compare the 10 best games of Felton's career. One can really start to see the value of Felton when doing this. In fact, in this analysis, it seems likely that Houston will cut Lin by January.

Solace wrote:Wow, talk about bias. Give me a break. Manipulate the statistics to prove a point. That was really poor quality. Please don't waste my time with this again. Thanks.

Manipulate the stats?
1. Woosdson is the coash.
2. Trying to evaluate Lin is not an easy task based on statistics.
3. I can also post Lin and Felton's numners under MDA but what's the point? MDA is no longer the coach.
4. Lin struggled under Woodson.

I simply ommitted Lin's numbers under MDA as I did with Felton so as far as manipulating stats I don't see your point.

Do you feel it's not fair evaluating Lin based on his numbers under Woodson when Woodson is the coach even though almost 30% of his games were under Woodson?

Solace wrote:Wow, talk about bias. Give me a break. Manipulate the statistics to prove a point. That was really poor quality. Please don't waste my time with this again. Thanks.

+1

Do you feel it's not fair evaluating Lin based on his numbers under Woodson when Woodson is the coach even though almost 30% of his games were under Woodson?

Yes, discarding data (in this case from MDA) and relying on a smaller (in this case very small) sample is almost never a good idea.

nehemiah wrote:Another good way to do this analysis is to compare Lin (his worst 10 games of his career, including his stints at Golden State and Houston), and compare the 10 best games of Felton's career. One can really start to see the value of Felton when doing this. In fact, in this analysis, it seems likely that Houston will cut Lin by January.

It's not about finding Felton's value, it's about looking at a palyer from a pure basketball perspective. Not easy to do when you're trying to look at a player based on 25 starts and 1 huge game off the bench.

Bonn1997 wrote:

Solace wrote:Wow, talk about bias. Give me a break. Manipulate the statistics to prove a point. That was really poor quality. Please don't waste my time with this again. Thanks.

+1

Do you feel it's not fair evaluating Lin based on his numbers under Woodson when Woodson is the coach even though almost 30% of his games were under Woodson?

Yes, discarding data (in this case from MDA) and relying on a smaller (in this case very small) sample is almost never a good idea.

OK, fair enough, just for arguments sake here are Lin's and Felton's numbers under MDA

Lin/MDA
19 Games
20.3 PPG 8.4 AST 4.8 TO 2.4 STL
.453 FG%
.350 3PT%

Felton/MDA
54 Games
17.1 PPG 9 AST 3.3 TO 1.8 STL
.423 FG%
.328 3PT%

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Solace wrote:Wow, talk about bias. Give me a break. Manipulate the statistics to prove a point. That was really poor quality. Please don't waste my time with this again. Thanks.

+1

Do you feel it's not fair evaluating Lin based on his numbers under Woodson when Woodson is the coach even though almost 30% of his games were under Woodson?

Yes, discarding data (in this case from MDA) and relying on a smaller (in this case very small) sample is almost never a good idea.

OK, fair enough, just for arguments sake here are Lin's and Felton's numbers under MDA

Lin/MDA
19 Games
20.3 PPG 8.4 AST 4.8 TO 2.4 STL
.453 FG%
.350 3PT%

Felton/MDA
54 Games
17.1 PPG 9 AST 3.3 TO 1.8 STL
.423 FG%
.328 3PT%

It would help to have more data but I remember Felton barely averaging a point per shot, which makes him just a chucker.
Regardless, I wasn't saying replace one small sample (numbers without MDA) with another (numbers only under MDA). That's equally bad.

Bonn1997 wrote:

CashMoney wrote:

Bonn1997 wrote:

Solace wrote:Wow, talk about bias. Give me a break. Manipulate the statistics to prove a point. That was really poor quality. Please don't waste my time with this again. Thanks.

+1

Do you feel it's not fair evaluating Lin based on his numbers under Woodson when Woodson is the coach even though almost 30% of his games were under Woodson?

Yes, discarding data (in this case from MDA) and relying on a smaller (in this case very small) sample is almost never a good idea.

OK, fair enough, just for arguments sake here are Lin's and Felton's numbers under MDA

Lin/MDA
19 Games
20.3 PPG 8.4 AST 4.8 TO 2.4 STL
.453 FG%
.350 3PT%

Felton/MDA
54 Games
17.1 PPG 9 AST 3.3 TO 1.8 STL
.423 FG%
.328 3PT%

It would help to have more data but I remember Felton barely averaging a point per shot, which makes him just a chucker.

Really? Interesing when you consider that under MDA Lin averaged 15.7 field goal attempts per game and Felton average 14.8

That's exactly the issue with Lin. His track record is 26 games.