Knicks · Phil has gone all in - the official Man up thread (page 1)

after the past 16 years even a .500 season would be a success lol. Seriously though we need to be at least a consistent playoff team for a few years. Obviously I don't expect a title but getting to the ECF one year would be nice

I think they need to make the play offs at least every year and first round exit is not ok. They don't have to get to the finals, but they can't be one and done every year.

The talent is there for sure- on paper- but the age and injury history of all the guys brought in is huge and could blow up tremendously in his face.

The absolute worst outcome would be years of just missing the play offs or barely squeeking in and having middling picks to work with to fill in and build forward.

The issue is health. If Rose and Noah can play 60-65 games a year and stay healthy for the playoffs, we will be competing for ECF every year for the next 3-4 years. If Rose and Noah miss 30 or more games, we will probably be back in the lottery wondering what happened. You cannot really predict health, so we cannot really predict if these moves were good, great, or terrible at this point. All I can say is the moves have the potential to be great, which is still better than the last few offenses. I think Phil took a gamble that needed to be taken and he gave us a chance to have a legetimate contending team.

I said no sub .500 play. This is a team that should be in the playoffs every year. How far they go will depend on health.

Thing is I don't think there is anything regarding these moves to really "justify." I didn't like the Rose trade, but didn't hate it. Opted for a wait and see approach. Thad Young got pick #20 in an unimpressive draft (gauging Lopez's value) and Grant played very poorly last year. Lopez played 82 games on a 32 win team. We gave up something yes, but I cant see losing Lopez/Jose/Grant as guys you really need to justify making moves for. Also once we added Noah/Rose we got Lee/Jennings/Lance at discount rates. The more talent you have the more attractive your franchise is to other players.

This was an aggressive offseason to upgrade the talent and perception of the team and those things happened. What is different from the past is we didn't have a 20 year old player with KP's potential so the future remains bright. Hopefully Willy proves to be a running mate for the next decade, but I will keep my enthusiasm on realistic scale for now.

Team has a great future. Team doesn't owe any future first rounders. Good chance the Bull's pick is in the 30s next season.

I mean in year 3 we have a 2 way franchise caliber prospect. We have 3 guys around that player who are all capable of taking over a game. Its a very new team this year, but there is nice roster diversity. This isn't a one and done. This is a model that can win now and continue to build for the future.

Since this is all or nothing team, the worst I'll settle for as a fan is no 1st round exits just to be realistic.

I don't expect the Finals, but I'm willing to let this squad prove me wrong.

As long as the culture is conducive to winning, and KP gets tons of playoffs games under this belt, then overall these moves will be a net positive.

If Phil somehow flips Rose for Russell then you can say job well done. If this is the best Phil can do, the jury is still out on him.

franco12 wrote:I think they need to make the play offs at least every year and first round exit is not ok. They don't have to get to the finals, but they can't be one and done every year.

The talent is there for sure- on paper- but the age and injury history of all the guys brought in is huge and could blow up tremendously in his face.

The absolute worst outcome would be years of just missing the play offs or barely squeeking in and having middling picks to work with to fill in and build forward.

Play offs all 4 years, 1st round exits not ok

I am guessing by the bold you selected the below option. Let me simply as why? This team won 32 games last year with the "valuable assets" we traded away in rotation players Grant/Jose/Lopez. So is the expectation if we keep those guys the Knicks are in the semi's every year? Hows that? Sorry... I am just not connecting the dots. We traded 3 rotation guys from a 32 win team, and now the expectation for these moves to be "worth it" is we need to at least make the 2nd round every year?

If we win 40 games next year with Lopez/Grant and Jose but miss the playoffs is that a good season? A successfully season? I don't see a balanced scale for measuring the moves made this offseason... was the expectation that the Knicks were going to compete for a title with Grant/Lopez as centerpieces?

ChuckBuck wrote:Since this is all or nothing team, the worst I'll settle for as a fan is no 1st round exits just to be realistic.

I don't expect the Finals, but I'm willing to let this squad prove me wrong.

As long as the culture is conducive to winning, and KP gets tons of playoffs games under this belt, then overall these moves will be a net positive.

If Phil somehow flips Rose for Russell then you can say job well done. If this is the best Phil can do, the jury is still out on him.

One thing the jury is not out on is your posting... that case is closed.

fishmike wrote:

franco12 wrote:I think they need to make the play offs at least every year and first round exit is not ok. They don't have to get to the finals, but they can't be one and done every year.

The talent is there for sure- on paper- but the age and injury history of all the guys brought in is huge and could blow up tremendously in his face.

The absolute worst outcome would be years of just missing the play offs or barely squeeking in and having middling picks to work with to fill in and build forward.

Play offs all 4 years, 1st round exits not ok

I am guessing by the bold you selected the below option. Let me simply as why? This team won 32 games last year with the "valuable assets" we traded away in rotation players Grant/Jose/Lopez. So is the expectation if we keep those guys the Knicks are in the semi's every year? Hows that? Sorry... I am just not connecting the dots. We traded 3 rotation guys from a 32 win team, and now the expectation for these moves to be "worth it" is we need to at least make the 2nd round every year?

If we win 40 games next year with Lopez/Grant and Jose but miss the playoffs is that a good season? A successfully season? I don't see a balanced scale for measuring the moves made this offseason... was the expectation that the Knicks were going to compete for a title with Grant/Lopez as centerpieces?

No, franco12 is in the build organically through the draft/pounce in the real free agency class of 2017 camp.

When Mike Conley is the one making $150m, you're in the wrong free agency class. We ideally should've signed band-aids for 1-2 yr options, but we blew our load on the all MRI team. Sucks, but we all have to move on.

fishmike wrote:

ChuckBuck wrote:Since this is all or nothing team, the worst I'll settle for as a fan is no 1st round exits just to be realistic.

I don't expect the Finals, but I'm willing to let this squad prove me wrong.

As long as the culture is conducive to winning, and KP gets tons of playoffs games under this belt, then overall these moves will be a net positive.

If Phil somehow flips Rose for Russell then you can say job well done. If this is the best Phil can do, the jury is still out on him.

One thing the jury is not out on is your posting... that case is closed.

TheGame wrote:The issue is health. If Rose and Noah can play 60-65 games a year and stay healthy for the playoffs, we will be competing for ECF every year for the next 3-4 years. If Rose and Noah miss 30 or more games, we will probably be back in the lottery wondering what happened. You cannot really predict health, so we cannot really predict if these moves were good, great, or terrible at this point. All I can say is the moves have the potential to be great, which is still better than the last few offenses. I think Phil took a gamble that needed to be taken and he gave us a chance to have a legetimate contending team.

You saw something with Lee/Lance/Jennings... guys want to play here. Really all we need is one of Rose/Noah to be healthy and productive. That gives you a legit big 3 with Melo/KP. That is enough to go from 32 wins to the playoffs. Remember the Knicks were 20-20 before Melo hurt the ankle and they lose every game for 3 weeks.

If one of these guys establish themselves than I think you continue to see this as a key FA destination. We are already seeing a positive trickle down effect. Need to continue that trend I think its very possible.

Moves don't get justified retrospectively, you evaluate them in the moment. All you have when making big decisions is the information about what's in front of you and what came before. What winds up happening cannot be definitively known or predicted. All you can judge is: given the totality of information that we have right now are these moves sound, intelligent, and do they indicate a good vision for success, hopefully allowing for variability and different contingencies? Any smart poker player will tell you that results-oriented thinking is the domain of losers and the true measure of a player's decision making is whether the information available at the time of the decision justified the move. Obviously with knowledge of odds, player tendencies, other game conditions. Bad luck, and good luck, happens and cannot be planned.

That said, I believe that this team needs to get to the 2nd round and be competitive. That is also my hope for next year. I think this will heighten the possibility of attracting Westbrook, which to me is still the most desirable outcome after this season.

P.S. I hink Phil has done a bang up jub this offseason given the position he was in, the market conditions, etc. Truly exceptional work.

ChuckBuck wrote:

fishmike wrote:

franco12 wrote:I think they need to make the play offs at least every year and first round exit is not ok. They don't have to get to the finals, but they can't be one and done every year.

The talent is there for sure- on paper- but the age and injury history of all the guys brought in is huge and could blow up tremendously in his face.

The absolute worst outcome would be years of just missing the play offs or barely squeeking in and having middling picks to work with to fill in and build forward.

Play offs all 4 years, 1st round exits not ok

I am guessing by the bold you selected the below option. Let me simply as why? This team won 32 games last year with the "valuable assets" we traded away in rotation players Grant/Jose/Lopez. So is the expectation if we keep those guys the Knicks are in the semi's every year? Hows that? Sorry... I am just not connecting the dots. We traded 3 rotation guys from a 32 win team, and now the expectation for these moves to be "worth it" is we need to at least make the 2nd round every year?

If we win 40 games next year with Lopez/Grant and Jose but miss the playoffs is that a good season? A successfully season? I don't see a balanced scale for measuring the moves made this offseason... was the expectation that the Knicks were going to compete for a title with Grant/Lopez as centerpieces?

No, franco12 is in the build organically through the draft/pounce in the real free agency class of 2017 camp.

When Mike Conley is the one making $150m, you're in the wrong free agency class. We ideally should've signed band-aids for 1-2 yr options, but we blew our load on the all MRI team. Sucks, but we all have to move on.

Chuck - I think we agree. I was of the mind to build smartly and steadily with an eye towards building a winner in 2-5 years, not overnight.

We were 500 for a stretch last year, and partly failed because of the Fisher drama and a Melo freak injury- as well as just not having enough talent.

Right now, with Phil's moves, 58% of our cap is occupied by players brought in over 30 and or who were injuried last year or the year before and played very few games. That's Rose, Noah, Lee and Jennings. Only Jennings is a bargain. Rose thank god is an expiring.

Phil's gambled. Is it smart? We don't have access to medical reports, doctors and the video tape and scouts and experts that I hope Phil does.

But, I think based on the moves and the implications to our future flexibility, we can as fans have realistic expectations of what a win to Phil's gamble looks like.

I can accept no sub 500 play. I just have a slightly higher goal based on what Phil's done.

This is pretty misleading because we didn't go all-in. We actually have pretty good flexibility out of the moves that were made. The poll is a good one. Making the playoffs the next 3 years with at least 1 sustained run would be enjoyable and a nice change of pace.

SwishAndDish13 wrote:This is pretty misleading because we didn't go all-in. We actually have pretty good flexibility out of the moves that were made. The poll is a good one. Making the playoffs the next 3 years with at least 1 sustained run would be enjoyable and a nice change of pace.

Good flexibility how? Didn't we lock in injury prone Noah for 4 years and already 30 year old Courtney Lee for 4 years also? Also, Lance Thomas is 28 and locked in for 4 years as well.

Besides possibly flipping Rose for another point guard next season, there isn't much wiggle room to get out from these potentially albatross contracts.

Anyone thinking this is a win for the future type team is delusional.

I don't think the team is done building. This is just another step in the process. We're not locked into this team by any stretch. PG is wide open after this year. And we have draft picks coming in the next three years. It's always going to be fluid in this CBA

People were (laughably) worried we were locked into Robin Lopez's contract and that we overpaid. Those same people then lamented that we traded such a good value contract. The handwringing around here is ridiculous.

The Knicks are trying to compete. "Building the right way" amounts to a heck of a lot of luck. We got KP. We wouldn't have gotten him if the Sixers or Lakers wanted him. The Spurs wouldn't necessarily be regarded as one of the best franchises of all-time if they hadn't lucked into the first pick in the draft the year Tim Duncan was available - they got him because David Robinson and Sean Elliot both unexpectedly went down with injuries. OKC did everything right. They drafted Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden - they lost them all due to bad luck in the playoffs.

Phil took a risk - there's no reason not to. Hoarding assets for a day that may never come or trying to purposely lose for draft position is lame. Just ask Sam Hinkie how well that works. The Sixers just did that for the past four years. Are they in better shape than the Knicks? Are they really? What do they have to show for it? A whole lot less than the Knicks who got lucky with KP the one year they had a top 4 pick.

franco12 wrote:

ChuckBuck wrote:

fishmike wrote:

franco12 wrote:I think they need to make the play offs at least every year and first round exit is not ok. They don't have to get to the finals, but they can't be one and done every year.

The talent is there for sure- on paper- but the age and injury history of all the guys brought in is huge and could blow up tremendously in his face.

The absolute worst outcome would be years of just missing the play offs or barely squeeking in and having middling picks to work with to fill in and build forward.

Play offs all 4 years, 1st round exits not ok

I am guessing by the bold you selected the below option. Let me simply as why? This team won 32 games last year with the "valuable assets" we traded away in rotation players Grant/Jose/Lopez. So is the expectation if we keep those guys the Knicks are in the semi's every year? Hows that? Sorry... I am just not connecting the dots. We traded 3 rotation guys from a 32 win team, and now the expectation for these moves to be "worth it" is we need to at least make the 2nd round every year?

If we win 40 games next year with Lopez/Grant and Jose but miss the playoffs is that a good season? A successfully season? I don't see a balanced scale for measuring the moves made this offseason... was the expectation that the Knicks were going to compete for a title with Grant/Lopez as centerpieces?

No, franco12 is in the build organically through the draft/pounce in the real free agency class of 2017 camp.

When Mike Conley is the one making $150m, you're in the wrong free agency class. We ideally should've signed band-aids for 1-2 yr options, but we blew our load on the all MRI team. Sucks, but we all have to move on.

Chuck - I think we agree. I was of the mind to build smartly and steadily with an eye towards building a winner in 2-5 years, not overnight.

We were 500 for a stretch last year, and partly failed because of the Fisher drama and a Melo freak injury- as well as just not having enough talent.

Right now, with Phil's moves, 58% of our cap is occupied by players brought in over 30 and or who were injuried last year or the year before and played very few games. That's Rose, Noah, Lee and Jennings. Only Jennings is a bargain. Rose thank god is an expiring.

Phil's gambled. Is it smart? We don't have access to medical reports, doctors and the video tape and scouts and experts that I hope Phil does.

But, I think based on the moves and the implications to our future flexibility, we can as fans have realistic expectations of what a win to Phil's gamble looks like.

I can accept no sub 500 play. I just have a slightly higher goal based on what Phil's done.

So keeping Lopez and Grant were smarter? What is the win total with those guys? What is the ceiling?

All I am reading from you guys is the Knicks didn't do it YOUR way, so they need to make round 2 at least or its a fail. So what about keeping Grant/Lopez and Jose says you are building a team that gets to round 2 every year? That's what I want to hear and what I think your points come up well short on.

ChuckBuck wrote:

SwishAndDish13 wrote:This is pretty misleading because we didn't go all-in. We actually have pretty good flexibility out of the moves that were made. The poll is a good one. Making the playoffs the next 3 years with at least 1 sustained run would be enjoyable and a nice change of pace.

Good flexibility how? Didn't we lock in injury prone Noah for 4 years and already 30 year old Courtney Lee for 4 years also? Also, Lance Thomas is 28 and locked in for 4 years as well.

Besides possibly flipping Rose for another point guard next season, there isn't much wiggle room to get out from these potentially albatross contracts.

Anyone thinking this is a win for the future type team is delusional.

At some point you have to decide that winning is important and signing key pieces is also important. I can't believe you just complained about signing LT to a 4 year deal, especially at his price. When does stability come into your thinking? I put Courtney Lee into that same category.

We have flexibility on the team's most riskiest player. This is not Philly.

crzymdups wrote:People were (laughably) worried we were locked into Robin Lopez's contract and that we overpaid. Those same people then lamented that we traded such a good value contract. The handwringing around here is ridiculous.

The Knicks are trying to compete. "Building the right way" amounts to a heck of a lot of luck. We got KP. We wouldn't have gotten him if the Sixers or Lakers wanted him. The Spurs wouldn't necessarily be regarded as one of the best franchises of all-time if they hadn't lucked into the first pick in the draft the year Tim Duncan was available - they got him because David Robinson and Sean Elliot both unexpectedly went down with injuries. OKC did everything right. They drafted Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden - they lost them all due to bad luck in the playoffs.

Phil took a risk - there's no reason not to. Hoarding assets for a day that may never come or trying to purposely lose for draft position is lame. Just ask Sam Hinkie how well that works. The Sixers just did that for the past four years. Are they in better shape than the Knicks? Are they really? What do they have to show for it? A whole lot less than the Knicks who got lucky with KP the one year they had a top 4 pick.

what was that risk again? That Grant turns into a move the needle PG? That Lopez's value skyrockets above the last first round pick value that Thad Young got? The risk is that this whole thing fails and we are back in the lottery next year, and according to the "we should have grown it organically" crowd that is a good thing. So outline the risk again for me please? I am a bit sketchy on those details...

fishmike wrote:

crzymdups wrote:People were (laughably) worried we were locked into Robin Lopez's contract and that we overpaid. Those same people then lamented that we traded such a good value contract. The handwringing around here is ridiculous.

The Knicks are trying to compete. "Building the right way" amounts to a heck of a lot of luck. We got KP. We wouldn't have gotten him if the Sixers or Lakers wanted him. The Spurs wouldn't necessarily be regarded as one of the best franchises of all-time if they hadn't lucked into the first pick in the draft the year Tim Duncan was available - they got him because David Robinson and Sean Elliot both unexpectedly went down with injuries. OKC did everything right. They drafted Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden - they lost them all due to bad luck in the playoffs.

Phil took a risk - there's no reason not to. Hoarding assets for a day that may never come or trying to purposely lose for draft position is lame. Just ask Sam Hinkie how well that works. The Sixers just did that for the past four years. Are they in better shape than the Knicks? Are they really? What do they have to show for it? A whole lot less than the Knicks who got lucky with KP the one year they had a top 4 pick.

what was that risk again? That Grant turns into a move the needle PG? That Lopez's value skyrockets above the last first round pick value that Thad Young got? The risk is that this whole thing fails and we are back in the lottery next year, and according to the "we should have grown it organically" crowd that is a good thing. So outline the risk again for me please? I am a bit sketchy on those details...

I thought you loved and had big hopes for Grant.

What we wish for, and what would be a success for this group are two different things.
Sure, i wish for the team to make a run to the ECF. Maybe with some luck it is even possible. Or maybe it's not. But given the team's recent history, and knowing that Phil gambled on trading for Rose and signing Noah, both of whom might never be better than average players in this league again means that 4 years of first round exits would be a great success for this group.
Furthermore, the poll is a little flawed in that I don't expect this group to be together for 4 years. Rose has to prove a lot to be back the year after next. So at least the starting PG may be a very different one, and they should have a significant amount of money to sign a new one (or upgrade at center or SG if Jennings shows something.
Personally, i refuse to get my hope up about Rose, and to a lesser degree Noah. We've been here to many times before. Penny Hardaway, Steve Francis, Amare, Houston. Players generally don't come back from multiple years of injury to regain form as impact players. If they do in this case, and the Knicks make the playoffs, it was great luck, and that can only be called a success.