Knicks · Morris to Clippers for Harkless sound imminent (page 5)

knicks1248 wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

knicks1248 wrote:

Nalod wrote:

GustavBahler wrote:No picks? Sounds a lot like "players to be named later".

Picks are assets......wait for it.......

They better get shamet out of the deal..

No, but we get three more forwards who can't shoot

perry should fired by 3:15 pm

Never show a fool a job half done.

Uptown wrote:Good trade for the most part...when we first signed Morris, the idea of getting a 1st reound pick for a 1 yr rental would have been a great get. We cant let rumored deals on twitter sawy us....we got assets and we are still on track for a rebuild.

True. I wouldn't say we killed it, but we did OK. Especially considering that the FO was considering Julius for Drummond a few weeks ago. It looks like we can't move any of the other vets, so this it.

I would have hoped for Shamet and a 1st. I would have been fine with Shamet and no picks. I'm very lukewarm on just the late pick. I get the whole idea of getting something at all, but still it's tough to swallow in a weak draft with very little average return on a late first as it is. Hopefully we get lucky or can cash out the picks in a big move during the draft.

Knixkik wrote:I would have hoped for Shamet and a 1st. I would have been fine with Shamet and no picks. I'm very lukewarm on just the late pick. I get the whole idea of getting something at all, but still it's tough to swallow in a weak draft with very little average return on a late first as it is. Hopefully we get lucky or can cash out the picks in a big move during the draft.

I keep saying this but people just do not want to listen:

Earlier this week, behavioral economist Richard Thaler was awarded the Nobel prize in economics for his work in studying the predictability of irrational behavior.

That work includes a paper on the NFL draft, which influenced many front offices to change their approach to the annual event and also played a large role in the 2011 CBA that reduced rookie salaries significantly.

Thaler’s thesis was that NFL teams were too confident in their ability to predict which players would be better than others. Because teams were handing top picks such large deals, those picks at the top of the first round actually provided less value than picks at the bottom of it.

Thaler maintained that teams over-valued the “right to pick,” which caused teams to give up too much value in order to move up in the draft to take their guy. Because the ability to forecast whether, say, the top cornerback in the class was going to perform better than the second-best corner in the class is so weak, trading up for a specific player was irrational behavior, according to Thaler.

“Teams overestimate their ability to discriminate between the best linebacker in the draft and the next best one, and to overestimate the chance that if they wait, the player they are hoping for will be chosen by another team.”

Thaler also found that teams were willing to give up a more valuable pick in the future for a less valuable in the current draft. So, in theory, teams could add value in subsequent drafts by simply loaning picks out in the current draft.

Football teams and fans are smarter now. We know that trading away a bunch of picks for a top pick rarely works out. And we know that the best approach to the lottery that is the NFL draft is to gather as many tickets (picks) as possible. That’s why the Browns front office has been applauded for their rebuild.

But this wasn’t always the case. Before Thaler published his paper, he consulted with several NFL teams, the first being Dan Snyder’s Washington Redskins. Thaler told the story of his experience with Snyder on an episode of Sports Illustrated’s “Your Brain on Sports” podcast.

At lunch I told him about the research we were doing about the NFL draft. He got all excited. Well, we want to be the best at everything. I’m going to have my guys come see you right away … Sure enough that Friday, the COO of the operation and the capologist and one other guy — three guys from the team — show up at our office and we run through our results… So we had two lessons for [Dan Snyder]: Trade down and loan picks this year for better picks next year.

Armed with Thaler’s thorough research, Snyder and the Redskins exploited other teams and used the NFL draft to build a dynasty that won multiple Super Bowl titles.

Just kidding. Of course, he ignored Thaler’s advice…

So we had two lessons for [Dan Snyder]: Trade down and loan picks this year for better picks next year. So Cade and I get a six-pack, start watching the draft that year keen to see what the Redskins are gonna do. What do they do? They trade up and they give up a better pick next year to have a better pick this year. We moved onto another team after that.

So why didn’t Snyder take Thaler’s advice?

Via Sports Illustrated:

When he asked the team what happened, Thaler was told: “Mr. Snyder wanted to win now.”

The Redskins have won two playoff games since Snyder bought the team, and exactly one since turning down Thaler’s advice.

And Snyder hasn’t really learned his lesson in the time since. In 2012, he went against Thaler’s advice once again and traded multiple picks to move up four spots to take Robert Griffin III. That 2012 draft is the perfect illustration of why the “right to pick” is overvalued. Griffin was their guy, but at least three quarterbacks who went after him, including Kirk Cousins, have been more successful than RG3.

Pro-tip: When a person as smart as Richard Thaler offers you well-thought-out advice, please take it.

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/10/nfl-richard-thaler-nfl-draft-nobel-prize-dan-snyder-redskins

I know the old NFL draft system versus the modern NBA draft system are different. But the point is just getting draft picks is a good thing according to a Nobel laureate

Knixkik wrote:I would have hoped for Shamet and a 1st. I would have been fine with Shamet and no picks. I'm very lukewarm on just the late pick. I get the whole idea of getting something at all, but still it's tough to swallow in a weak draft with very little average return on a late first as it is. Hopefully we get lucky or can cash out the picks in a big move during the draft.

again they said Shamet was off limits for a rental. We got a first rounder, a high second rounder, and an intriguing euro prospect. Pretty good haul for a guy we can resign again

Uptown wrote:Good trade for the most part...when we first signed Morris, the idea of getting a 1st reound pick for a 1 yr rental would have been a great get. We cant let rumored deals on twitter sawy us....we got assets and we are still on track for a rebuild.

Yup.

Expiring contract...a #1, a#2, & a prospect we can let develop overseas, if need be.

Not bad.

CleaverGreene wrote:

Uptown wrote:Good trade for the most part...when we first signed Morris, the idea of getting a 1st reound pick for a 1 yr rental would have been a great get. We cant let rumored deals on twitter sawy us....we got assets and we are still on track for a rebuild.

Yup.

Expiring contract...a #1, a#2, & a prospect we can let develop overseas, if need be.

Not bad.

Agreed. Anybody who think we were getting Shamet for a rental wasn’t being realistic. The Knicks did good. We got more assets and didn’t do anything stupid like give a first rounder for a bloated contract

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Hmmm, Knicks got 4 first over the next 2 drafts to utilize for the inevitable Booker chase.

martin wrote:

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Would have a decent stockpile for Ujiri Oh, well it's done. Hoping for the best.

newyorknewyork wrote:Hmmm, Knicks got 4 first over the next 2 drafts to utilize for the inevitable Booker chase.

Booker?

Odd that we chose to re-route Jerome Robinson to the wiz in favor of the euro pg overseas (clips are buying out IT)

martin wrote:

newyorknewyork wrote:Hmmm, Knicks got 4 first over the next 2 drafts to utilize for the inevitable Booker chase.

Booker?

Yea he was a Rose client. They were speaking on the radio how he is scoring 20+ a gm. But he don't get any votes for the all-star gm. That the Suns aren't really moving forward. So it's lining up for him to be that next guy wanting out.

martin wrote:

newyorknewyork wrote:Hmmm, Knicks got 4 first over the next 2 drafts to utilize for the inevitable Booker chase.

Booker?

He was a Rose client I believe.

smackeddog wrote:Odd that we chose to re-route Jerome Robinson to the wiz in favor of the euro pg overseas (clips are buying out IT)

who are the Knicks releasing to make room for him?

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martin wrote:

smackeddog wrote:Odd that we chose to re-route Jerome Robinson to the wiz in favor of the euro pg overseas (clips are buying out IT)

who are the Knicks releasing to make room for him?

Yeah, we already have a roster full of project guards. At least we can stash this one in Europe for a while. I would've campaigned to bring him over sooner if he kept the fro. Still thinking of you Labeyrie.

magicTs wrote:

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So he's not going to sell? The hell continues.

StarksEwing1 wrote:

Knixkik wrote:I would have hoped for Shamet and a 1st. I would have been fine with Shamet and no picks. I'm very lukewarm on just the late pick. I get the whole idea of getting something at all, but still it's tough to swallow in a weak draft with very little average return on a late first as it is. Hopefully we get lucky or can cash out the picks in a big move during the draft.

again they said Shamet was off limits for a rental. We got a first rounder, a high second rounder, and an intriguing euro prospect. Pretty good haul for a guy we can resign again

Yeah no doubt it could have been worse. It was underwhelming but under the circumstances i can see the value.

Knixkik wrote:

StarksEwing1 wrote:

Knixkik wrote:I would have hoped for Shamet and a 1st. I would have been fine with Shamet and no picks. I'm very lukewarm on just the late pick. I get the whole idea of getting something at all, but still it's tough to swallow in a weak draft with very little average return on a late first as it is. Hopefully we get lucky or can cash out the picks in a big move during the draft.

again they said Shamet was off limits for a rental. We got a first rounder, a high second rounder, and an intriguing euro prospect. Pretty good haul for a guy we can resign again

Yeah no doubt it could have been worse. It was underwhelming but under the circumstances i can see the value.

how was it underwhelming? Anytime you can get a first, a high second, a prospect, don’t have to take on a long contract for a rental it’s a good deal

Right now I hope the Knicks are looking for pick swap deals for one of our expirings to playoff teams. Anything we have the Bucks or 76ers would want?