Knicks · Knicks Offseason Preview (page 5)

Hard to say how things would have played out vs Indiana if Randle was healthy. Easy to say having another solid scoring option would have made things much tougher for Indy to put all that pressure on Brunson (agree) but then I think of Indy's fast game pace and would Randle have been able to be effective at a faster pace? Indy made me think we need more speed and athleticism - regardless of the pace we currently play at. Randle certainly would have helped on the boards but then would Hart have been as effective as he was crashing the boards and hustling back and playing tough defense from a different position or in less minutes? Maybe losing to Indy is not the best way to evaluate our needs. I do think Randle would have been huge for us vs Boston and maybe vs Denver in a hypothetical finals matchup.

Here's what I would do
Resign OG, Hartenstein if possible, Burks (if cheap)
I would pass on trying to land Booker if it meant losing Villanova guys and/or OG. I would only consider moving Randle in a package for Booker if we secured another decent PF as OG can't yet be relied on to play consistently.

I would seriously consider a Randle for Lebron rental due to his experience and passing ability from the PF spot. While it would only be for 2 years - really think KD or Lebron would be the ideal fit for this roster (Giannis being the best option but don't believe that he will be available).

nycericanguy wrote:Gotta say Ihart had a very solid season, but watching a guy like Turner who can shoot and space the floor makes you realize how limited we are at the C even more. Ihart had every chance to have a big time series and ended up averaging 6ppg and 9rpg, a bit disappointing.

I think we messed up not going after KP that's no secret, but we could really use a different look at C. Maybe we should look into drafting a big man that can space the floor.

Offensive rebounding might be the biggest identity component of this team. All the KP talk just ignores that. Also, he’s injured just as bad as OG who you get on nonstop.

KP and Lebron and get rid of Randle…I really don’t want to read this s#!t today….

DLeethal wrote:

nycericanguy wrote:Gotta say Ihart had a very solid season, but watching a guy like Turner who can shoot and space the floor makes you realize how limited we are at the C even more. Ihart had every chance to have a big time series and ended up averaging 6ppg and 9rpg, a bit disappointing.

I think we messed up not going after KP that's no secret, but we could really use a different look at C. Maybe we should look into drafting a big man that can space the floor.

Offensive rebounding might be the biggest identity component of this team. All the KP talk just ignores that. Also, he’s injured just as bad as OG who you get on nonstop.

A big that can space the floor would just be another weapon, OG is an absolute necessity.

I don't think having a floor spacing big means you don't offensive rebound either.

I mean I was concerned about OG b/c of exactly what happened, not exactly something I wanted to be right about, but it's a big concern and we need to find another PF/SF this offseason for the inevitable 30 games he's going to miss.

martin wrote:Or, why would you give up an all NBA guy for one who is not? And also toss in a pick?

In 25-26 Randle has a player option vs Bridges who is fully understand contract. The idea is Knicks toss in a pick to compensate for Randle potentially leaving or resigning at a higher number.

Knixkik wrote:

martin wrote:

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Spot on.

They aren't getting all of that in one off season. Ideally, I am trying to get in on a 3 way with Cleveland and Brooklyn where Donovan goes to Brooklyn, Cleveland gets picks and high level support players, and the Knicks get Bridges.

Resign OG and IHart
Trade for Bridges (who I think fills like 3 of those needs)
Then start looking at vet bangers and defenders who want a shot at a ring for near minimum contracts.

joec32033 wrote:

Knixkik wrote:

martin wrote:

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Spot on.

They aren't getting all of that in one off season. Ideally, I am trying to get in on a 3 way with Cleveland and Brooklyn where Donovan goes to Brooklyn, Cleveland gets picks and high level support players, and the Knicks get Bridges.

Resign OG and IHart
Trade for Bridges (who I think fills like 3 of those needs)
Then start looking at vet bangers and defenders who want a shot at a ring for near minimum contracts.

The point of that post was that they are getting a scorer, wing defender and rebounding big with Randle, OG and Mitch back.

foosballnick wrote:

joec32033 wrote:

Knixkik wrote:

martin wrote:

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Spot on.

They aren't getting all of that in one off season. Ideally, I am trying to get in on a 3 way with Cleveland and Brooklyn where Donovan goes to Brooklyn, Cleveland gets picks and high level support players, and the Knicks get Bridges.

Resign OG and IHart
Trade for Bridges (who I think fills like 3 of those needs)
Then start looking at vet bangers and defenders who want a shot at a ring for near minimum contracts.

The point of that post was that they are getting a scorer, wing defender and rebounding big with Randle, OG and Mitch back.

I'm confused. The tweet specifically states the Knicks need to obtain x, y, and z....For as great as the season went they aren't matchup proof-not like a team like the Celtics are. They need to get a little longer and a little taller. Rokas is an unknown.

I am looking at Bridges like a taller version of Igudala from GS's prime years.
A Harrison Barnes/Oubre type to give them some defensive length (Kyle Anderson is available)
A Al Horford type as a banger who can defend and stretch (Keep Achuwa and coach up his 3)
A 3rd string Ball handler that can move up to second string if Deuce doesn't improve his PG skills.(a guy like Kris Dunn, maybe?)

Anyway, I agree that it doesn't make sense to shop Randle. He's the man.

Let's approach Free Agency from another way- just roster spots.
These guys are the core and contract numbers in millions rounded:
Brunson 25
DDV 11
Hart 18
Randle 30
OG 30
IHart 16
McBride 5

I think the Knicks will go pretty high in salary negotiations to keep both OG and IHart. Let's assume they sign I Hart for his max of 16 million (175% of current salary, Average Value for 4 years is about 18m) and OG for 30 (Jerami Grant as a comparison).

Core contracts: 135
Max Salary Line: 141
1st Apron: 179
2nd Apron: 189

I left Robinson off the list because after playing 90 games over the past two seasons (compared to OG playing 117) there are major injury concerns. But with 27m owed over the next two years, a DPOY upside, and the difficulty in trading him, I'm guessing he stays at 14m. That brings the roster to 149m.

Knicks need to look forward to future contracts for Randle and Brunson. Those will push the Knicks cap numbers at least 30 million higher next season (Randle at 40, Brunson at 45). The apron penalties are really geared towards acquiring more salary via trades.and buy out options, except for one- if a team is over the 2nd apron for 3 of 5 years, their draft pick gets moved to the end of the first round. Since Knicks will likely hit the 2nd apron in 25-26, it makes sense to avoid it this year. Additionally, teams over the 2nd apron can't trade their picks.

So let's say the Knicks have 40 million in space with a core roster of:

Brunson/ McBride
DDV
OG/ Hart
Randle
IHart/ Robinson

Knicks also have some minimum contracts on the books:

Diakite 2
Sims and Jeffries 2 each (team options)

Add on two first round picks at 2.5 each and the Knicks are at 160m. For convenience sake, the Knicks keep these guys and picks rather than minimum salary guys. That puts the roster at 13 guys.

But hold on, with the roster limited to 15 guys, the Knicks will need to make some decisions at the end of the bench.

If NY extends Precious the qualifying offer for 6 million and keeps Bogdanovic at 19- there's no space to resign Burks or anyone else. This isn't even getting into Rokas or the 38 pick in the second round. If they keep Bogdanovic and Precious accepts the QO, the Knicks are at 185 and no spots, meaning no space for Burks, Rokas, and #38.

So it seems like the big questions going forward are:

Do the Knicks buy- out Bogdanovic to sign a player for the MLE, potentially saving 5 million that can be used for Precious or Burks?

Do the Knicks keep their draft picks or try to consolidate them? Knicks have a lot of control over the 24-38 range.

Are Sims, Diakite, and Jeffries going to stick around? Does it make sense to drop them for rookies or Rokas?

Is Precious going to get a deal over 6.2 million from another team? Even a little jump could uncomfortably put the Knicks past the second apron.

My feeling is that the Knicks should definitely try to keep him while letting Sims go. Precious is a more viable 3rd string center.

I'd try to resign Burks and drop Bogdanovic and then use the MLE. Knicks have got some street credibility now and should be attractive to free agents. Burks showed enough over the past 3 games that if he can be kept, he has more upside than Bogdanovic.

Here's how I envision the 2025 roster:

Brunson/ MLE /McBride 24/ 10/ 5 = 39
DDV/ Burks/ Draft pick 11/ 8/ 2= 21
OG/ Hart/ Draft pick 30/18/2 = 50
Randle/ Draft pick/ Diakite 30/2/2 34
IHart/ Robinson/ Achiuwa 16/14/6 36
Bogdanovic buy out: 2

Total: 182
That gives the Knicks 7 million in slush to account for rounding errors and slightly higher deals.

Draft picks and MLE positions are switchable based on availability.

Keeping Bogdanovic likely means Burks would need a big salary cut and no MLE. Since both those deals would likely be for multiple years, they probably decrease the chance of swinging a big trade with Bogs as expiring and picks.

martin wrote:

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This is my kind of humor.

Man, do I miss January.

curious what Toronto will pay IQ. That seems to be predestined as is the OG number.
Naturally as a fan Shouldn't iHart just be clamoring to continue to be a knick?
Does the lovely and now pregnant Mrs. Hartenstein who is from Texas feel the pull to raise the little Zuess in the Lone Star State. Where the deer and the antlelope play, Ted Cruz and wackadoodle others, but no state income tax?

predictions:

1. We mostly run it back with same core team. Few surprises.
2. One of Mitch or iHart will be gone. I hate that. Hope I am wrong.

Few surprises? Lets define that: Might be numerically few but could be a big one.

How? Randle an Allstar talent. we seem to disregard him a bit. Naturally the off season starphuch click bait will include his name so we will naturally validate that given the redundancy. Same with Mikal Bridges.

Bridges in a three way with Clev? While Nets will have to sweeten the pot why would Clev more him to NY? Mikal I think fits in real ice with Clev by itself. Randle for whom then? I have said this before the only one that makes sense is KAT if they can save money on resigning Randle. Not a prediction.
Randle gets shopped, but he returns.

Nalod wrote:curious what Toronto will pay IQ. That seems to be predestined as is the OG number.
Naturally as a fan Shouldn't iHart just be clamoring to continue to be a knick?
Does the lovely and now pregnant Mrs. Hartenstein who is from Texas feel the pull to raise the little Zuess in the Lone Star State. Where the deer and the antlelope play, Ted Cruz and wackadoodle others, but no state income tax?

There's kind of an argument against resigning IHart.

Knicks top 5 are Brunson, DDV, Hart, OG, and Randle. Those are the 5 guys you want on the court closing games. I think because of durability and versatility IHart is an upgrade over Robinson but if IHart leaves, playing Precious behind Robinson or even starting Precious won't be the end of the world. Robinson has one important skill that IHart lacks; he can credibly play Embiid straight up.

The alternative to resigning IHart is.to keep Bogdanovic, resign Burks, and have the full MLE to use. At least one of those has to go if we keep him. Not as easy a decision as it seems.

gradyandrew wrote:

Nalod wrote:curious what Toronto will pay IQ. That seems to be predestined as is the OG number.
Naturally as a fan Shouldn't iHart just be clamoring to continue to be a knick?
Does the lovely and now pregnant Mrs. Hartenstein who is from Texas feel the pull to raise the little Zuess in the Lone Star State. Where the deer and the antlelope play, Ted Cruz and wackadoodle others, but no state income tax?

There's kind of an argument against resigning IHart.

Knicks top 5 are Brunson, DDV, Hart, OG, and Randle. Those are the 5 guys you want on the court closing games. I think because of durability and versatility IHart is an upgrade over Robinson but if IHart leaves, playing Precious behind Robinson or even starting Precious won't be the end of the world. Robinson has one important skill that IHart lacks; he can credibly play Embiid straight up.

The alternative to resigning IHart is.to keep Bogdanovic, resign Burks, and have the full MLE to use. At least one of those has to go if we keep him. Not as easy a decision as it seems.

Mitch salary is very good but his injuries are getting difficult for at team that contends.
He is not a bad contract but can't go starter minutes?
Im not nearly as high on precious as sum but at the right price he can stay.

iHart money is a question. What team can extract what he brings and has money? Other teams have other needs.
I love Josh Hart. But at full strength were is he? Is he our 3? Is OG our 4? Is DDV our 2 or he off the bench?
I have more questions than answers.

iHart is a crucial piece of this team, not only defensively, but offensively he is a hub for the team and key to Brunson doing what he did down the stretch. With Randle back on the floor, perhaps the pressure is off, but I think iHart does a lot of things to make the team go. Given the cap situation the offer from is is $16mm which is in line with Mitch's contract. This is generally fair wages for the 5 position in the modern NBA. I think if he was gonna leave the offer has to be in the $20mm+ per annum range. Maybe a team like OKC which is incredibly close and could use some size/strength up front is the biggest risk. He is a great passer and would fit that team really well (moves Chet to the 4 at times, but I think it works).

Precious I believe is an RFA, which means we can match an offer sheet. I don't know what the right move is here. I think my inclination is to let him walk. He has value defensively, but he is just so bad offensively. His finishing is not great and his jumper and FT shooting got worse as the year progressed. He has had flashes of terrific play and had a really nice extended run, but its not an obvious rotation spot here.

Its a foregone conclusion that we are gonna pay OG, but the question is whether its closer to 30 or 40mm. There has been so much invested here, and he does so much to make this team a next level player. You can't trust him to stay healthy, but at this point he's piece that makes this a title contender. I don't think there's a scenario where you can let him walk and try to acquire someone like Mikal Bridges to replace him. Beyond someone like Mikal there's no real player in the NBA that can adequately replace what he brings to the roster.

Last FA is Burks - I'd keep him on a vet min type deal, but he can probably get paid more elsewhere.

One option I don't think that is being discussed enough is if we can't get trade for a big star, and we resign everyone, I think it might be a good year to package some picks together and move up in the draft. I think there are a few good wing prospects, not great but solid. Considering that everyone thinks this draft is suspect, maybe it would make sense to package our three picks and move up to draft Dalton Knecht, Cody Williams, Matas Buzelis, or Ronald Holland... I doubt we could get Zaccharie Risacher but maybe? I mean, this year is 'weak' but it appears to have a lot of prospects that could theoretically fit a need for us

gradyandrew wrote:

martin wrote:Or, why would you give up an all NBA guy for one who is not? And also toss in a pick?

In 25-26 Randle has a player option vs Bridges who is fully understand contract. The idea is Knicks toss in a pick to compensate for Randle potentially leaving or resigning at a higher number.

That's not how any of this works

martin wrote:

gradyandrew wrote:

martin wrote:Or, why would you give up an all NBA guy for one who is not? And also toss in a pick?

In 25-26 Randle has a player option vs Bridges who is fully understand contract. The idea is Knicks toss in a pick to compensate for Randle potentially leaving or resigning at a higher number.

That's not how any of this works

How about Terry Rozier for Kyle Lowry and a 1st?

I get your point that Randle has more accolades than Bridges but can we at least agree that it's debatable who the better player is. Bridges wins out in efficiency and availability, Randle as a do it all hub- more points, rebounds, and assists. But who cares?

We can agree that both are on valuable, below market deals. And we can agree that Bridges goes a year longer, at least if we assume Randle will opt out of his player option.

What a great season. Lots of highs, some lows, and the bittersweet ending, with optimism for the future.

He and Mitch create a really brilliant center tandem - both excellent defenders, but they get it done different ways - and their offensive games are quite different. To be honest I don't know if the modern game is really suited for centers to consistently play 30mpg. Too much running, too much switching, so investing in a tandem is a good idea - a defensive anchor is so important with how Thibs likes to play.

I was looking at his numbers this year - and I'm actually curious why people see him drawing potential interest in the $16-20m/yr range. Yes, he's a good all-around center, but he lacks that floor-spacing 3pt aspect that a player like Myles Turner have - that seems to be a requirement these days to get the big bucks. For what's it's worth, ~$15m is what an average NBA starting center makes. (Mitch is the 16th highest paid center, at $15m!)

Season averages:
25.3mpg, 7.8ppg, 8.3rpg, 2.5apg, 1.1bpg 64.4% FG 70.7% FT.

I immediately thought that well, he played better in the 2nd half of the season, especially after the all star break.

2nd half numbers:
24.7mpg, 9.0ppg, 7.7rpg, 3.5apg 1.2bpg 68.7% FG .707% FT.

Not very different, in fact he played FEWER minutes, all while nursing a sore heel. A little uptick on scoring, dip in rebounds, but the most notable change was the big jump in assists 2.0 to 3.5.

As a comp and cheap replacement if it comes down to it, let me present to you:

Mason Plumlee - 2022-2023 Charlotte Hornets version! (he was on a fantasy team, that's why I know this)
In 56 games:
28.5mpg, 12.2ppg, 9.7rpg, 3.7apg.

He was doing the mini Jokic/Sabonis distributor at center game. Like Hartenstein, he isn't a 3pt spacing threat.

He was later part of trade deadline deal to the Clippers, where he's spent a lot of time riding pine on the Clippers bench (ironically, replacing the gap Hartenstein left when he signed with the Knicks!) behind Zubac. He ended up signing a $5m/1yr deal last year with the Clippers to be their backup center.

Plumlee is actually a + defensive player and can make a lot of similar plays on offense, though he's not the fluid athlete that Hartenstein, nor does he have the tools to be a big shot blocking threat (average arm length, not an explosive leaper, old). He's 33 years old now.

I can see the Knicks pursuing Plumlee if Hartenstein decides to go elsewhere.

Hopefully Hartenstein and his wife like it in New York. Hartenstein has brilliant synergy with his teammates and coach. Worth noting: he has a baby due in June 2024. His wife was a successful swimsuit/fitness model prior to connecting with him. Given the baby, she may need to transition away from swimsuits if she wants to continue her career (or just be an insta-influencer), so a return to LA for modelling gigs may not be in the cards. But with a new baby, she may want to be closer to family (she hails from Dallas). (how do I know this? https://people.com/sports/who-is-kourtne...).

joec32033 wrote:<snip>
I'm confused. The tweet specifically states the Knicks need to obtain x, y, and z....For as great as the season went they aren't matchup proof-not like a team like the Celtics are. They need to get a little longer and a little taller. Rokas is an unknown.

I am looking at Bridges like a taller version of Igudala from GS's prime years.
A Harrison Barnes/Oubre type to give them some defensive length (Kyle Anderson is available)
A Al Horford type as a banger who can defend and stretch (Keep Achuwa and coach up his 3)
A 3rd string Ball handler that can move up to second string if Deuce doesn't improve his PG skills.(a guy like Kris Dunn, maybe?)

I like Bridges... but he's a skinny 6'6" guy. I think coming out of college, he dropped a little because he's a little small for a SF, and being a little older and of slight build, it didn't look like he'd pack on extra bulk easily. (Iguodala was also listed at 6'6", but like players like Kobe or Vinsanity, he had a more robust, powerful natural build)
Bridges isn't an ideal match with this roster, unless you see us going small with him at SF or moving him into the starting SG slot.

I agree with you on defensive length, especially at forward. We started Hart/OG at our forward positions. Precious had his moments, but he was used primarily as a finisher on offense. Basically - they gave him Mitchell Robinson's responsibilities.

I *really* like Kyle Anderson as a versatile bench guy. He can play a bunch of positions, adds that Jared Jeffries style of defensive length and is a very skilled offensive player with some post-up/iso skills to boot along with some plus playmaking for a big.

But with that, any player coming to NY would really have to want to be here or be desperate for a job - because they'll be racking up DNP-CD's. As it stands, we already run 2 deep at every position, and have several bench guys that really demand big minutes, as much as they can spare. (pointing mostly at Hart, who was pretty ineffective as a 20-25mpg bench player, but turned on GOD mode when he played 40+mpg)

I sort of think we're already set with Precious (if he returns), but we'd ideally like a little more touch from the perimeter from him and he'd be perfect. But alas, we're quite worried when he shoots or takes his man off the dribble. I don't know if any player on the Knicks was blocked more in the playoffs. No deception at all in what he's going to do. It depends on how we see him. Precious is an improvement over Sims at PF/C (albeit as our 3rd string backup at C and PF). He can passably defend against most forwards, but his lack of shooting/spacing hurts unless the Knicks manage to get 3 shooters on the floor.

joec32033 wrote:

Knixkik wrote:

martin wrote:

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Spot on.

They aren't getting all of that in one off season. Ideally, I am trying to get in on a 3 way with Cleveland and Brooklyn where Donovan goes to Brooklyn, Cleveland gets picks and high level support players, and the Knicks get Bridges.

Resign OG and IHart
Trade for Bridges (who I think fills like 3 of those needs)
Then start looking at vet bangers and defenders who want a shot at a ring for near minimum contracts.

The post was saying all of those pieces already exist on our roster, they just weren't able to play throughout the playoffs.

SupremeCommander wrote:One option I don't think that is being discussed enough is if we can't get trade for a big star, and we resign everyone, I think it might be a good year to package some picks together and move up in the draft. I think there are a few good wing prospects, not great but solid. Considering that everyone thinks this draft is suspect, maybe it would make sense to package our three picks and move up to draft Dalton Knecht, Cody Williams, Matas Buzelis, or Ronald Holland... I doubt we could get Zaccharie Risacher but maybe? I mean, this year is 'weak' but it appears to have a lot of prospects that could theoretically fit a need for us

Agreed, we need to be very careful messing with this roster. That January run was special stuff. Bucks go to show you how tinkering to add a star can backfire. I don't think there are many trade scenarios where we can end up better than simply bringing all of our guys back and add to the depth. Leveraging the draft to add talent we can groom slowly and use as emergency depth is a no brainer though, and maybe trading up for one guy we love is the move.