what's the benefit to keeping Joba over Peavy?
for 1 thing, he's a home grown product & that's always a plus to any organization... second, he's 5 years younger than Jake Peavy & has already shown dominant stuff at the ML level... when u get a chance look up Joba's #'s in his 1st 2 ML seasons & compare them to Peavy's... Peavy has been the durable one, no question about it, but Joba's been more dominant starting off his career than Peavy was... hitters are just .217 lifetime vs. Joba, even better than what they're hitting vs. Peavy, & he's great in his own right at .232... not sure where u get the idea there's a slim chance Joba would be better than Peavy someday... i think there's a pretty good chance he will be just as good if not better... i dunno if u ever thought Peavy would be this good after he posted an ERA in the 4's in his 2nd season, did u?
don't get it twisted tho, i'm not saying Peavy's not an elite pitching talent, he is a definite ace, no question about it, but a guy like Joba comes along very rarely in any organization's draft class... u can't give up guys like that... also, consider the fact that he's locked up to rookie level dollars for a few more years... Peavy's making $6.5 mil & pretty soon he'll be looking for a huge payday, probably more than Johan money if u consider the inflation in annual market prices for quality talent.
i'm sorry but Joba is an absolute untouchable right now in my eyes, i don't care who we're talking about.
back on Mark T for a second, if we don't land him in free agency i hope we make a play for Casey Kotchman via trade.. he struggled in ATL & we could probably get him on the cheap... before the switch to the NL he was a pretty solid 1B for the Angels & he's still only 25 & signed to very reasonable dollars, so we can allocate those funds towards signing CC & another high priced arm for the rotation.
Posted by TMS:
what's the benefit to keeping Joba over Peavy?
not sure where u get the idea there's a slim chance Joba would be better than Peavy someday
It's simple. Very few pitchers who look outstanding in their first 100 or so mlb innings turn out to be better than Cy Young award winning pitchers. None of the stuff about money matters IMO because young, ace starting pitchers are the one area you should spend everything you can to get the absolute best talent and SAFEST, SMARTEST gambles. I'm not talking about $30 mil for Roger or $20 mil/year on a position player. I'd also never say a pitcher is untouchable after 100 mlb innings. It's just too small a sample. For every ace you end up protecting with that philosophy you're likely to also end up protecting something like 3 total busts, 5 #2, 3, or 4 starters, and a few pitchers whose don't last in the big leagues because of injury.
[Edited by - bonn1997 on 10-06-2008 9:24 PM]
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
what's the benefit to keeping Joba over Peavy?
not sure where u get the idea there's a slim chance Joba would be better than Peavy someday
It's simple. Very few pitchers who look outstanding in their first 100 or so mlb innings turn out to be better than Cy Young award winning pitchers.
ur kidding me right? & what statistical study did u conduct to come to that conclusion? u think young pitchers that look as dominant as Joba has over his first 100 ML innings grow on trees?
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:
Posted by TMS:
what's the benefit to keeping Joba over Peavy?
not sure where u get the idea there's a slim chance Joba would be better than Peavy someday
It's simple. Very few pitchers who look outstanding in their first 100 or so mlb innings turn out to be better than Cy Young award winning pitchers.
ur kidding me right? & what statistical study did u conduct to come to that conclusion? u think young pitchers that look as dominant as Joba has over his first 100 ML innings grow on trees?
What study? Are you looking for a peer-reviewed journal article or something? I don't get the question. Yeah, the guy's had an ERA in the mid 2s after 100 innings. That's rare but not unheard of like you make it sound. Do you really need some sort of study to show you that a lot of those guys don't turn out better than Cy Young award winning pitchers? I mean, you're not even saying ordinary aces; you're saying Cy Young Award winning pitcher. Can you gaurantee that Joba will be a Cy Young Award winning starter? If not, then go after the guy who already is at that level. I know he's one of "our kids" and this reasoning won't work. It's 12 months ago all over again.
[Edited by - bonn1997 on 10-06-2008 9:28 PM]
Yeah, the guy's had an ERA in the mid 2s after 100 innings. That's rare but not unheard of like you make it sound. Do you really need some sort of study to show you that a lot of those guys don't turn out better than Cy Young award winning pitchers? I mean, you're not even saying ordinary aces; you're saying Cy Young Award winning pitcher. Can you gaurantee that Joba will be a Cy Young Award winning starter?
so who are those guys ur talking about that look as dominant as Joba that don't turn out to be Cy Young calibre? tell me that long list of guys you have in mind that hardly ever reach that level.
If you can show a site that sorts pitchers by ERA in their first season, I'll gladly answer that. Otherwise, you'll have either to accept my general memory of how first season ERA correlates with general career ERA, which is that it predicts it decently but far from perfectly or to not accept it and move on. I didn't have a formal list last year either regarding Hughes or Kennedy.
If you're going to tell me that the Yankees plan to use Joba as a starter forever, I would gladly involve him in a package for Peavy. If you're going to tell me that Joba is going to be the closer-in-waiting then I would not include him in any trade for Peavy.
My reasoning is simple. I just don't think Joba is that effective as a starter. Sure his ERA looks great, but lets remember that #1 Joba is a first year starter and many players and teams haven't seen him use his full aresnal of pitches and #2 when I watched Joba start this year, he was always in trouble as a starter because he tries to strike EVERYONE out, so his walks rose, which I think is going to catch up with him when the league sees more of him as a starter. Just my opinion though.
Joba has a closers mentality and thats where he should stay and Closers like Joba come far and thin, which is why I wouldn't include him in a trade for Peavy if he's going to be the closer-in-waiting.
Posted by nyk4ever:
If you're going to tell me that the Yankees plan to use Joba as a starter forever, I would gladly involve him in a package for Peavy. If you're going to tell me that Joba is going to be the closer-in-waiting then I would not include him in any trade for Peavy.
My reasoning is simple. I just don't think Joba is that effective as a starter. Sure his ERA looks great, but lets remember that #1 Joba is a first year starter and many players and teams haven't seen him use his full aresnal of pitches and #2 when I watched Joba start this year, he was always in trouble as a starter because he tries to strike EVERYONE out, so his walks rose, which I think is going to catch up with him when the league sees more of him as a starter. Just my opinion though.
Joba has a closers mentality and thats where he should stay and Closers like Joba come far and thin, which is why I wouldn't include him in a trade for Peavy if he's going to be the closer-in-waiting.
Those are good points about Joba as a starter. I'd say that unless Joba is going to turn out to be one of the best closers in the history of the game like Mariano, I'd rather have a Cy Young level pitcher. It's quite uncommon for a closer to be very good for more than about 4 or 5 seasons because it takes such a toll on your arm and shoulder. Now, if they had traded Joba for Peavy last summer, we'd be in the playoffs against LAA right now most likely. If we'd also done the Hughes/Kennedy for Johan deal, we'd have a very strong chance to win the WS IMO, and to win it for many years to come.
All this said, I LOVE Joba and would hate to lose him. I'd first try really hard to not have to include him in any deal.
Posted by Bonn1997:
If you can show a site that sorts pitchers by ERA in their first season, I'll gladly answer that. Otherwise, you'll have either to accept my general memory of how first season ERA correlates with general career ERA, which is that it predicts it decently but far from perfectly or to not accept it and move on. I didn't have a formal list last year either regarding Hughes or Kennedy.
i hate when u make those sweeping generalities w/no facts to back it up... go look up the stats of the pitchers you had in mind yourself... they're easily available on any sports website... otherwise ur point is pretty moot.
I'm so disappointed in the way the Yankees have handled Chamberlain so far. The organization has created such a controversy with this kid that they're really starting to look like amateur decision makers over there, the lot of 'em. It's embarrassing. To a man, every top guy in the organization (Hank/Hal, Cashman, Girardi) has said he's a starter and "the plan" is for him to be a starter yet they still seem so enamored with his bullpen success that you get the feeling they still don't know what the hell to do with him. "OK Joba, you're gonna start out in the pen to keep your innings down then come mid-May/early-June you can start but you can't go more than 5 innings or 75 pitches first, then we'll see if........" Come on man. Enough. That has to change. That's how you treat the best pitching talent this organization's produced since Mariano and Andy Pettitte?? Yeah, it's been a while right? Making Joba go through this nonsense YET AGAIN is what's gonna get this kid hurt - they're two vastly different roles that require completely different preperation and approach. For Joba in the pen as one of the main short men, he's expected to go out there 3,4,5 times a week and go balls to the wall in 1,2 inning stints. No curveball, no changeup, just max-effort 97-100 mph gas & the killer slider, 20 to 30 pitches. Now that's extremely taxing to begin with. Then after preparing to give the team that they want to turn around and make him a starter where they'll all of a sudden be looking for length - now they'll need him to conserve somewhat to maximize hopefully a 100-120 pitch effort by throwing all his pitches (he's got the very good curveball and decent changeup that gets lost with the bullpen role) only dialing it up a few times a game when he really needs to. That's a huge difference in approach & execution and to expect him to prepare one way for a few months then on the drop of a dime expect him to suddenly enter the rotation, re-adjust on the fly, pitch effective and keep you in games... It's rediculous already. It just doesn't work like that. It's not fair to him, to your bullpen, your team, the fans..., not to mention it took its toll and it's what got him hurt in Texas IMO. And to think that's how they might approach it again?!?! Speaking of Mariano, I don't remember anywhere near the same controversy when he first came up in '95 and it was a similar situation. Prospect new on the scene with a great arm. Mo comes up and makes a handful of starts that year but by season's end, he was in the pen to stay and that was that. And that's not to say I'm advocating Joba to be a reliever - on the contrary, every effort should be made to make him a starter unless he fails. It just shows that the '95 team's braintrust was at least able to make a friggin' decision. One way or another, here's hoping these "Joba rules" finally come to an end.
Now provided we believe them this time and Joba's a starter once and for all to begin the season, we need to add to that. No doubt about it. The key to a dominant season starts with the rotation. It's an arms race. Literally. And it's up to us to keep pace. Who are we going to add to Joba and Wang to match up with the depth of other teams' rotations that are ahead of us right now, namely the Red Sox and the Rays? We need to add at least two frontline starters to this rotation and that's on top of making Chamberlain a starter full-time. Bottom line. Obviously Sabathia and Burnett would be perfect. But suppose that doesn't happen - we then have to explore trade possibilities and I think we have enough assets to swing a deal w/o including Chamberlain. How do you improve the pitching overall by trading Joba? There are some cases where there's addition by subtraction, but trading Joba away hardly qualifies. But if you add onto Joba, now you've got something. Trading Joba just can't be done and I'm not even worried about it because I think the organization realizes that (it'd be nice if they knew how to use the guy already, but at least you get the feeling they know he's a keeper). It'd be like the Lakers including Kobe Bryant in the deal for Pau Gasol. What would that have accomplished? It doesn't make sense. The Lakers knew they needed to add to Kobe to elevate that team to the next level. Same idea here with the Yankees & Joba. You might laugh Bonn, but a package of Robinson Cano, Hughes, Kennedy, and a choice between Sanchez, Whelan or if need be Melancon is more than a decent package to get Peavy or possibly even Peavy/Edgar Gonzalez, especially if you believe Buster Olney's report that Jake's disgusted and wants out of San Diego. That would be a lot to fork over, but it'd be a deal that we could learn to live with. TMS also pointed out that Peavy's gonna be up for a new contract soon and he's gonna be looking for market value, well above the money he's making now. That could be money too rich for San Diego's blood. Yet another reason why he & the Padres might look to part ways. Forgetting the obvious fact that we need to add to Joba and Wang to take the next step - tell me, after considering these factors, does getting Peavy for a package w/o Joba sound that farfetched or sound like something we shouldn't attempt? I'd like to see the following rotation to start next season:
1 - Frontline starter (FA or trade acquisition)
2 - Frontline starter (FA or trade acquisition)
3 - Wang
4 - Chamberlain
5 - Mussina or Aceves
If we're interested in matching up with the Red Sox and the Rays 1 through 5 without conceding games before they even begin that's how you rebuild the rotation. We shouldn't be conceding too much of anything if we'd have Wang as our #3, Joba against other teams' #4s and either Moose who just won 20 games and looked great or Al Aceves who looked real poised, in control and showed promise as our #5. For example, I'll take my chances with Wang or Joba against Dice-K, Moose or Aceves against Wakefield, etc. Those are matchups you can feel good about. Provided we make the necessary changes to the offense, those are games that we could win, dare I say should win.
And speaking of the offense - I like Casey Kotchman as well. Strong dude, good hitter and suprisingly a very graceful fielder. That's a good call. He could be an option. The only thing that worries me a little about that is that Kotch isn't really that big power bat. Not yet anyway (though he did hit 14 dingers which shows some power potential). A-Rod's gonna need some protection in that lineup, especially if they wind up cutting guys like Abreu and Giambi loose. Those type of guys need to be replaced, hopefully with upgrades. Now I don't see the obvious upgrade over Abreu which is why I think we need to bring him back. The big upgrade at 1st base however is Mark Teixeria - he's even an upgrade over Giambi and Giambi hit 32 HRs this year. He won't come cheap being a Scott Boras guy but you know what, 29 years old, switch-hitter, 35-40+ HR power, great fielder (how 'bout that play he made last night right before Boston won it)... He's our guy.
If I were part of those internal winter meetings for the Yankees I'd come to the table with this agenda:
(1) Make Joba a full-time starter and leave him alone. If you have to limit his innings somehow for the first part of the year so be it, but he's a starter now.
(2) Go get two frontline starters (the younger the better) by any means necessary.
(3) Bring Bobby Abreu back to play RF. Try and entice Moose to come back.
(4) If we deal Cano come up with a 2nd baseman. Edgar Gonzalez or Orlando Hudson are options depending on what we wind up doing, though Benemit and Ransom could surprise in a platoon scenario.
(5) Go after FA righthander Juan Cruz for added bullpen depth.
(6) Get Mark Teixeria to play first - if not, it's imperative to add a big power bat possibly as a DH (do we then keep Giambi if we can't get Tex??). TMS makes a good case for going after Casey Kotchman in a reasonable trade (maybe something built around Juan Miranda and a couple of prospects). Casey Kotchman could be the player Nick Johnson was hyped to be but wasn't.
If we accomplish these things, we have the rest of the parts already here to make this thing work.
[Edited by - finestrg on 10-07-2008 5:19 PM]
Posted by TMS:
Posted by Bonn1997:
If you can show a site that sorts pitchers by ERA in their first season, I'll gladly answer that. Otherwise, you'll have either to accept my general memory of how first season ERA correlates with general career ERA, which is that it predicts it decently but far from perfectly or to not accept it and move on. I didn't have a formal list last year either regarding Hughes or Kennedy.
i hate when u make those sweeping generalities w/no facts to back it up... go look up the stats of the pitchers you had in mind yourself... they're easily available on any sports website... otherwise ur point is pretty moot.
Hate is a pretty strong word. Maybe you need to take break or something. That said, I can't find on any website a list of all pitchers' first season ERAs. And sorry this isn't important enough for me to examine every pitchers' stats individually. You didn't make this request when I made similar comments based on my understanding of relying on small samples regarding Hughes and Kennedy and I'd simply say the same applies to Joba's 12 career starts. It took 12 starts to lead to his first injury. There's all sorts of question marks that I raised and then NYK added some more question marks. There's all sorts of unknowns, EVERY ONE OF WHICH Joba has to successfully address to get to the point Peavy is at--being a consistent Cy Young level pitcher year in and year out.
Only because I love ya TMS did I bother to do this: I looked up all rookies with at least 70 IP and an ERA in the low 3s (or lower) between 2000 and 2003. Here's what I found
2000: Matt Herges, 3.17 ERA (career 3.94)
Chuck Smith, 3.23 ERA (career finished after second season. Never pitched again)
2001: Roy Oswalt, 2.73 (career outstanding; 3.13 ERA)
2002: Mark Prior, 3.32 (career finished four years later)
2003: Oscar Villarreal, 2.57 (career 3.86 with a range of 3.61 to 7.00)
Brandon Webb, 2.84 (excellent career, 3.24 ERA)
Luis Ayala, 2.92 (career 3.44 and over 5 this year)
Jerome Williams, 3.30 (career 4.25 and basically finished after 2005)
Dontrelle Willis, 3.30 (career 3.91 and basically finished 3 years later)
So a few observations:
(a) In only 2 of these 9 examples could you justify not trading the player for someone at Peavy's level. Even in those two, it would hardly have been a huge loss (if indeed a loss at all) to have made the trade.
(b) Even in the success stories, the ERA usually goes up about 0.50 after the rookie year. This makes sense if you understand the statistical concept of regression to the mean.
(c) Bonn knows what he's talking about even when he doesn't have time to look up examples.
One other thing to take into account when looking at those other guys' ERAs from 2000 to 2003 is that the league ERA was about .20 higher back then. So a low 3s ERA then might be more like an upper 2s now.
The more I have to stew on this season, the more I think we shouldn't go out and sign ANY big name free-agent for the sole reason that we would have to give up 1st round picks as compensation for any big name guy, that obviously aside from the fact they are going to cost alot of money. This thing has to be built through the draft and it has to be built through shrewd trade acquisitions. Look at the Red Sox team, yes they went out and traded for Beckett and signed Ortiz (but when they signed him he was not a big time player) but this team is built from within. Lester, Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Papplebonn is truly that teams core and those guys are all homegrown guys. In the Yankees position, we have NO ONE that matches up with any of those guys. Lester is light years ahead of Joba, Pedroia is light years ahead of Cano, Ellsbury is light years better than any OF prospect we have, Youkilis is an awesome young 1st baseman and MVP candidate... the list goes on.
You can do the same thing with the Rays. Yes it took them awhile to get here but look at their young players, they are awesome.
Going out and signing and Sabathia and Tex are no sure bets. CC is an amazing regular season pitcher, but his postseason track-record leaves ALOT to be desired. I think Tex is an alright player, he puts up good stats, but I think there is something missing with him, I just can't put my finger on it, just my opinion though. I think the most important thing for us is to draft smart, make shrewd trades and build this thing. Going out and spending hundreds of millions doesn't guarantee us anything, now I know drafting doesn't guarantee us anything either, but I think it's the right route, it costs less and with the right people in place is much more efficient and has a higher success rate. I firmly believe we have the right people in place, especially if we utilize Gene Michael more than what we have been in recent years.
Will the Yankees do this? I doubt it, but I really think it's the course we need to take.
Man I don't see anything missing with Tex. Maybe he's not a good bunter? Can't think of anything else. Oh I do agree that the Red Sox and Rays have been a much smarter run organization over the past several years. I blame Yankee ownership and the GM for that.
[Edited by - bonn1997 on 10-07-2008 6:36 PM]
Compensation picks:
Won't we be getting them for Giambi, Pavano, Irod, and Abreu (if he's not re-signed). That's a lot. Can't we afford to give some away then if we're bringing in young star FAs? I don't know a lot about the compensation picks. I'm sure you know more than I do.
Posted by Bonn1997:
Only because I love ya TMS did I bother to do this: I looked up all rookies with at least 70 IP and an ERA in the low 3s (or lower) between 2000 and 2003. Here's what I found
2000: Matt Herges, 3.17 ERA (career 3.94)
Chuck Smith, 3.23 ERA (career finished after second season. Never pitched again)
2001: Roy Oswalt, 2.73 (career outstanding; 3.13 ERA)
2002: Mark Prior, 3.32 (career finished four years later)
2003: Oscar Villarreal, 2.57 (career 3.86 with a range of 3.61 to 7.00)
Brandon Webb, 2.84 (excellent career, 3.24 ERA)
Luis Ayala, 2.92 (career 3.44 and over 5 this year)
Jerome Williams, 3.30 (career 4.25 and basically finished after 2005)
Dontrelle Willis, 3.30 (career 3.91 and basically finished 3 years later)
So a few observations:
(a) In only 2 of these 9 examples could you justify not trading the player for someone at Peavy's level. Even in those two, it would hardly have been a huge loss (if indeed a loss at all) to have made the trade.
(b) Even in the success stories, the ERA usually goes up about 0.50 after the rookie year. This makes sense if you understand the statistical concept of regression to the mean.
(c) Bonn knows what he's talking about even when he doesn't have time to look up examples.
without even having to bother looking up stats i can easily counter with names like Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens, Doc Gooden, Pedro Martinez & just to make u feel better i'll even include Moose's name in there even tho he never won a Cy Young... all of these guys had very good numbers when they broke into the majors just like Joba did... still not sure where u draw ur ideas from sometimes.
Posted by Finestrg:
The only thing that worries me a little about that is that Kotch isn't really that big power bat. Not yet anyway (though he did hit 14 dingers which shows some power potential). A-Rod's gonna need some protection in that lineup, especially if they wind up cutting guys like Abreu and Giambi loose. Those type of guys need to be replaced, hopefully with upgrades.
no doubt about that, i agree we're gonna have to replace that offense somehow... like i said, if we miss out on Mark T (not my preferred option but it is possible cuz i'm hearing Boras is asking for ARod level dollars or some ludicrous figure thereabouts, which ain't gonna happen), then the other option would be to stock up on the pitching & defense, get some role players in here who can fill some holes, & address our overall team depth... that's how the Yankees won during those dynasty years... i'd really like to get back to focusing on building a TEAM rather than just targetting big names for the sake of making that big splash move every offseason... i happen to think that's what the braintrust would like to do as well going forward... at least that's the feeling i got when they passed on Johan last year.
the other option would be to sign a stopgap filler option at 1B like Casey Blake & use our trade assets to land a bigname for CF or RF w/a big bat while also stocking up our pitching via free agency... there's many ways u can go about this, & none of them are necessarily wrong... it all depends on how the parts fit together & make sense from a practical & needs based standpoint.
Posted by Bonn1997:
Compensation picks:
Won't we be getting them for Giambi, Pavano, Irod, and Abreu (if he's not re-signed). That's a lot. Can't we afford to give some away then if we're bringing in young star FAs? I don't know a lot about the compensation picks. I'm sure you know more than I do.
Bonn, in Major-League baseball, Free-Agents are split into 3 groups:
Type A Free-Agents (must be in the top 20% of their position
Type B Free-Agents(must be in the 21-40% of their position
Unclassified (everyone else)
When a team signs a Type A FA the team that signs a Type A player must give its top draft pick to the team that is losing the player. The team that lost the player receives a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds. However, if the signing team has a draft pick in the first half of the first round (picks 1-15), their first round pick is protected and would then surrender their next highest draft pick.
When a team signs a Type B FA the team that loses a Type B players receives a supplemental pick, but the signing team does not lose any picks and the picks are at the end of the draft.
Unclassified, is nothing.
I think it's safe to say that none of the players that we are losing will be Type A players, I think only Abreu has a CHANCE to be type A. Abreu, Giambi and IRod are all Type B FA's for sure though, but we won't get the signing teams pick 1st round pick, just an extra pick at the draft.
Signing guys like CC and Tex are surely 1st round picks that will be lost and with the dearth we have in the minor-league system, I don't think we can risk this anymore. Tex is a good player, but I really don't see him leading us to a World Series which is what you should be getting from a guy you're going to pay as much as we are going to pay Tex. It's team we build this thing through the draft or make good trades. We need to conserve our draft picks and get as many of them as possible.
Posted by Bonn1997:
I do agree that the Red Sox and Rays have been a much smarter run organization over the past several years.
finishing in last place almost every year w/30,000 empty seats in the stadium every night except for when the Yankees come to town makes them a well run organization in your eyes?
