i know deandre jordan is a good defender (doesnt always challenge shots), great dunker (thats all he can do on offense) and nice rebounder but hes SUCH a liability on the free throw line. As we saw, the mental mistakes he makes can cost a team. This was a team effort (blake made some mistakes in the 4th) and I wont say that deandre lost the game for them but the spurs knew to EXPLOIT his weaknesses. Thats why i would never give him a max contract. He has such glaring weaknesses that can be exploited in a big game
You make a valid point but how much does his FT% really hurts you, Bonn gave the #s a while back. I think He does more things to help a team get to the playoffs than hurt them. Does that change though in the playoffs when a team can exploit his weakness? It might not matter if they change the hack-a-rule. Depending on how that shake out it could eliviate in concerns about the negative affects of having Jordan on the floor. Also, if you have a good back up, unlike LA, that would also help.
great point! if they change the hack rule then, id change my opinion. but until then that weakness can be exploited by good teams.
The average team gets about a point a possession, meaning 50% from the line and you would break even. If you're 5 percent below that, you're making one less free throw out of 20. If you take about 20 FTs a week, you're costing your team about a point a week.
He makes up for it and goes so far beyond that actually, that I would have no problem giving him the max.
Note that I actually read a while ago that 47% was the break even point but they didn't explain the number and I thought it would have been closer to low 50s. So I put 50% as a rough estimate.
i acknowledge that statistics and get that it might not be a big deal from that point. But what this hacking stuff does is it takes the air out of any momentum or flow that other players might have had. last night, there was defintely a change in the vibe from the clips cuz his missed free throws sucked the life out of the building. that cant be accounted for by stats. theres an intangible quality at play here.
PS again, if they change the hacking rules then i wont mind as much. i think they have to; the 3rd quarter started at 1AM and the game ended at 2AM. thats not good for business if the east coast cant stay up to watch the game.
Every player comes with some imperfections though. I'd live with this vibe issue compared to the issues with the other max contract people we here about. I bet if you switched Greg Monroe and Jordan, the Pistons would still be in the playoffs and the Clippers would be watching.
ehhh. i respect CP3 too much to say that they wouldnt be in the playoffs with monroe - but i agree with your sentiment that they wouldnt be as good. dude has many great qualities and is a fine player but it so happens that his weaknesses (free throw shooting) can KILL teams. not necessarily with tangible points but intangible vibes like momentum (which can be key for playoff games). and ill ignore his stupid mental blunders like the offensive goaltending last night
are we saying not to give the max to Deandre simply because of one play?
That is like giving the full MLE to Jerome James off a single play off performance.
If we could get Jordan for the max, I would be ecstatic. He is the right side of 30, with plenty of years ahead of impact play.
All of these similar posts mean nothing. We would give Jordan a max but it will never get that far--it wont get far with any RFA. There is no way smart savvy business men who run this league will turn their back on contracts at a 71% discount--not a one. Even offering your UFA 5 years for good money make sense because teams will need players with the big rise in cap. You simply sign the player even if you dont want them going 4ward and then wait 3 months and trade for assets or keep them at bargain prices.
The new max contract will be 25-27mm per and the new MLE will be 8.75mm.. Signing a guy for 8mm is a steal--easily disposed of after you sign them. Signing the upper tier guys for 13-16mm is a no brainer--easy to trade. The one thing that does help us is that Melos contract becomes easily tradeable if he wants out.
BRIGGS wrote:All of these similar posts mean nothing. We would give Jordan a max but it will never get that far--it wont get far with any RFA. There is no way smart savvy business men who run this league will turn their back on contracts at a 71% discount--not a one. Even offering your UFA 5 years for good money make sense because teams will need players with the big rise in cap. You simply sign the player even if you dont want them going 4ward and then wait 3 months and trade for assets or keep them at bargain prices.The new max contract will be 25-27mm per and the new MLE will be 8.75mm.. Signing a guy for 8mm is a steal--easily disposed of after you sign them. Signing the upper tier guys for 13-16mm is a no brainer--easy to trade. The one thing that does help us is that Melos contract becomes easily tradeable if he wants out.
You don't mean to say Deandre is RFA - as he is unrestricted- but yes, if your point is that with the exploding cap, there is no way a desirable free agent moves- unless they truly want to.
I think we have a slim shot with top names- I just worry that we end up overpaying for dregs- David West, Elton Brand - nice players, but I sure hope we're not throwing big money their way or exploding cap or not, we'll regret signing them to bad deals.
BRIGGS wrote:All of these similar posts mean nothing. We would give Jordan a max but it will never get that far--it wont get far with any RFA. There is no way smart savvy business men who run this league will turn their back on contracts at a 71% discount--not a one. Even offering your UFA 5 years for good money make sense because teams will need players with the big rise in cap. You simply sign the player even if you dont want them going 4ward and then wait 3 months and trade for assets or keep them at bargain prices.The new max contract will be 25-27mm per and the new MLE will be 8.75mm.. Signing a guy for 8mm is a steal--easily disposed of after you sign them. Signing the upper tier guys for 13-16mm is a no brainer--easy to trade. The one thing that does help us is that Melos contract becomes easily tradeable if he wants out.
Jordan isn't an RFA he is a 7 yr vet.
franco12 wrote:BRIGGS wrote:All of these similar posts mean nothing. We would give Jordan a max but it will never get that far--it wont get far with any RFA. There is no way smart savvy business men who run this league will turn their back on contracts at a 71% discount--not a one. Even offering your UFA 5 years for good money make sense because teams will need players with the big rise in cap. You simply sign the player even if you dont want them going 4ward and then wait 3 months and trade for assets or keep them at bargain prices.The new max contract will be 25-27mm per and the new MLE will be 8.75mm.. Signing a guy for 8mm is a steal--easily disposed of after you sign them. Signing the upper tier guys for 13-16mm is a no brainer--easy to trade. The one thing that does help us is that Melos contract becomes easily tradeable if he wants out.
You don't mean to say Deandre is RFA - as he is unrestricted- but yes, if your point is that with the exploding cap, there is no way a desirable free agent moves- unless they truly want to.
I think we have a slim shot with top names- I just worry that we end up overpaying for dregs- David West, Elton Brand - nice players, but I sure hope we're not throwing big money their way or exploding cap or not, we'll regret signing them to bad deals.
there is nothing different now than in prior seasons. The bold has really always been the case. When do guys leave? When they want to, or their current teams dont want them anymore. Really very little has changed. It has and always will come down to the players desire.
franco12 wrote:are we saying not to give the max to Deandre simply because of one play?That is like giving the full MLE to Jerome James off a single play off performance.
If we could get Jordan for the max, I would be ecstatic. He is the right side of 30, with plenty of years ahead of impact play.
This... we won 54 with Tyson and DA is better than Tyson plain and simple.
Bonn1997 wrote:The average team gets about a point a possession, meaning 50% from the line and you would break even. If you're 5 percent below that, you're making one less free throw out of 20. If you take about 20 FTs a week, you're costing your team about a point a week.
He makes up for it and goes so far beyond that actually, that I would have no problem giving him the max.
Note that I actually read a while ago that 47% was the break even point but they didn't explain the number and I thought it would have been closer to low 50s. So I put 50% as a rough estimate.
Apples to oranges. The average team's point per possession is inclusive of their free throw percentage which on average is 75%+. Broadening the scope of FT shooting to a per possession loss factor is an error because not all possessions were created equally.
In the last two minutes of a game, arguably the most important 2 minutes, where there is a point differential of a few points, you are taking opportunities where you should get 1.5points per possession and trading that for .9pts per possession.
It is compounded in the short term because possessions decrease from 20 secs per possession to 2-4 secs per possession. You can end up with 10 possessions in that last minute. 1.5 -0.9 = 0.6 x 10 possessions = 6 points.
I still think he is worth that loss factor, for instance, Jordan recovers 15% of offensive rebounds -- meaning he gets 1 out of 6 misses back for his team - better than most players in the league. Overall his plus minus is pretty good. I might sit him in the foul shooting contests -- the last two minutes of a tight game, but otherwise, I think he gets a max contract.
I'd give Griff a max deal, but I'd recind it after the 4th quarter last nite.
NBA has to go to some sort of NFL style deal with limited guarantee's. The good thing about the current system is players are sticking with their teams and league wise thats a good thing.
Knicks have to grow their own. We have a pick, and the more patience Phil takes the more substantial it can be.
This franchise is rebooting. This will take years. Enjoy the journey.
Its not important what fans think, its what MSG does. WIth phil and beyond.
EwingsGlass wrote:Bonn1997 wrote:The average team gets about a point a possession, meaning 50% from the line and you would break even. If you're 5 percent below that, you're making one less free throw out of 20. If you take about 20 FTs a week, you're costing your team about a point a week.
He makes up for it and goes so far beyond that actually, that I would have no problem giving him the max.
Note that I actually read a while ago that 47% was the break even point but they didn't explain the number and I thought it would have been closer to low 50s. So I put 50% as a rough estimate.
Apples to oranges. The average team's point per possession is inclusive of their free throw percentage which on average is 75%+. Broadening the scope of FT shooting to a per possession loss factor is an error because not all possessions were created equally.
In the last two minutes of a game, arguably the most important 2 minutes, where there is a point differential of a few points, you are taking opportunities where you should get 1.5points per possession and trading that for .9pts per possession.
It is compounded in the short term because possessions decrease from 20 secs per possession to 2-4 secs per possession. You can end up with 10 possessions in that last minute. 1.5 -0.9 = 0.6 x 10 possessions = 6 points.
I still think he is worth that loss factor, for instance, Jordan recovers 15% of offensive rebounds -- meaning he gets 1 out of 6 misses back for his team - better than most players in the league. Overall his plus minus is pretty good. I might sit him in the foul shooting contests -- the last two minutes of a tight game, but otherwise, I think he gets a max contract.
No team gets 1.5 points per possession in the closing 2 min. Usually efficiency goes down in the closing parts of games actually.
DeAndre Jordan is going to get a 5 year max from the Clippers in the range of $104M. The most the Knicks could offer is 4yr $78M. You do the math.
Bonn1997 wrote:The average team gets about a point a possession, meaning 50% from the line and you would break even. If you're 5 percent below that, you're making one less free throw out of 20. If you take about 20 FTs a week, you're costing your team about a point a week.
He makes up for it and goes so far beyond that actually, that I would have no problem giving him the max.
Note that I actually read a while ago that 47% was the break even point but they didn't explain the number and I thought it would have been closer to low 50s. So I put 50% as a rough estimate.
its probably lower than just the number of points per possession since you are compiling fouls on players and also putting them in the penalty.
So, when you take DA out of the game, the other team may be over the limit and it will hurt them.
crzymdups wrote:DeAndre Jordan is going to get a 5 year max from the Clippers in the range of $104M. The most the Knicks could offer is 4yr $78M. You do the math.
but does he go for the money or does he want to be with a winning franchise and is will to take the 78?
mreinman wrote:crzymdups wrote:DeAndre Jordan is going to get a 5 year max from the Clippers in the range of $104M. The most the Knicks could offer is 4yr $78M. You do the math.
but does he go for the money or does he want to be with a winning franchise and is will to take the 78?
Well if he wanted to be with a winning franchise... would he really want to be with the Knicks?
He may sign Bron's famous 1 and 1 deal so he can choose to play the 2016 or 2017 market.
If you're a free agent it makes sense, because basically in 2016 and 2017, most players will be able to pick the team they want to go to because there will be so much cap space.
If I'm the Knicks, I may wait until 2016 and try to build a super team rather than blow cap room on Greg Monroe. Heck, sign Andrea for a year rather than wasting four years on Monroe.
crzymdups wrote:mreinman wrote:crzymdups wrote:DeAndre Jordan is going to get a 5 year max from the Clippers in the range of $104M. The most the Knicks could offer is 4yr $78M. You do the math.
but does he go for the money or does he want to be with a winning franchise and is will to take the 78?
Well if he wanted to be with a winning franchise... would he really want to be with the Knicks?
He may sign Bron's famous 1 and 1 deal so he can choose to play the 2016 or 2017 market.
If you're a free agent it makes sense, because basically in 2016 and 2017, most players will be able to pick the team they want to go to because there will be so much cap space.
If I'm the Knicks, I may wait until 2016 and try to build a super team rather than blow cap room on Greg Monroe. Heck, sign Andrea for a year rather than wasting four years on Monroe.
of course he won't give up money to come to NY!
I like the 2016 plan over blowing our wad on monroe types.
