Knicks · I'm not a long term buyer of RJ's high level potential/talent (page 7)

blkexec wrote:

ramtour420 wrote:

technomaster wrote:RJ set a career high with 28 points tonight.

Over his past 5 (dating back to the loss to the Nets)
21.8 ppg
6.4 rpg
3.6 apg
51.4% FG
38.9% 3pt (3.6 3pt attempts/gm)
86.7% FT (6 FTA/gm)

His overall efficiency has been quite good - getting to the line a lot and shooting quite well all around. What's encouraging is that he's not forcing shots - these numbers are generally in the flow of the offense.

It really shows that he has worked on his game this off-season. Who would have thunk that he might turn out to be a 50/40/90 player.

Yep....I believe this is the reason him and Randle are getting the most mins. I could be wrong....What I do know? They both came into camp with a chip on their shoulders....and in shape....and it shows. But RJ is a gym rat, with a mamba personality. Which is somebody who wants to be great and also has the work ethic to achieve it. Regardless if he reaches that level or not. Knicks will recieve the fruits of his labor, during his run to greatness.

Am I saying he will be great? I dont know, its too early. But I do know, he will continue to work on his weaknesses and strive to be great, while growing into a young 20 yr old leader of men.

RJ at age 20 is giving you 18ppg 7rebs 3.5assists, is a 2-way player, leads the NBA in minutes and the team is winning. It quiet a lovely combo

joec32033 wrote:Why is it only in NY players are crap if they aren't the best player in the league? It happens all the time.

To me RJ looks like a guy that can be a 1a on a playoff team but he isn't going to take you to a championship by himself, just like 99.99999% of the players in this league. Dude reminds me of a player in the Danny Granger/Paul Pierce/Paul George/Scottie Pippen mold. Pierce was a hall of famer and in his prime Granger was one of the top wings in the league. George was a top wing and Pippen was Pippin. All of these guys ranged from really good to great on playoff teams by themselves ,but the needed help to get to that next level. There is nothing wrong with that.

Guys like him are guys you hold onto because even the guys you would trade him for wouldn't get you to that next level by themselves.

So far I'm watching him initiate the offense more, play lockdown defense, improved shooting.
I can see him reach a 20-5-5 level. His rebounding is already there. His scoring is getting there and his passing is improved or at the very least more evident. You can count on one hand the number of players in this league whose presence gets you to a conference finals/nba finals appearance. LeBron is one. Durant is maybe another. Who else? RJ isn't the best player in the league. He probably isn't going to be but from the looks of his intangibles and the improvement curve I see, he can well be really damn good.

What makes a guys like Booker and Lavine so much better? They score 26, 27 points a game? Let's be honest, if we ever got them, in a week both guys would be one dimensional scoring machines that we would try and post trades for someone else.

Great Post. Believe RJ will make his share of All-Star games. As you wrote, Barrett cant do it alone. Bad reason to consider trading him so soon. When he's already showing so much. We need to add more promising players, not trade them away.

Both Tatum and Ingram have gradually improved over time to look like max contract players, a testament to their work ethic. I'm optimistic RJ has similar DNA and upside as these two (he was definitely a more impressive player than Tatum in college, and very arguably more dominant than Ingram) and will continue to add more elements to his game over time.

Shooting percentages aside, RJ has tended to produce more rebounds/assists/pts than his Duke predecessors at the parallel points in their careers.

RJ's rookie shooting %s were remarkably similar to Ingram's:
RJ 40.2% FG / 61% FT / 32% 3pt%
BI 40.2% FG / 62% FT / 29% 3pt%

BI's year 5 numbers: 46% FG / 83% FT / 38% 3pt%

- - -
Scoring:
Here's what their scoring by year in their career looks like:
RJ: 14.3, 17.8
Tatum: 13.9, 15.7, 23.4, 26.9
Ingram: 9.4, 16.1, 18.3, 23.8, 22.9
All 3 of them showed progress, but it's interesting to see where Ingram and Tatum have had leaps at different points in their careers. (Ingram and Tatum both arrived as superstars last season)

FT Shooting:
From a shooting standpoint, Tatum has been at 80+% for his whole career - by far the most polished from the get-go. Ingram's FT% was in the 65+% range for his first 3 seasons, before becoming an 80+% FT shooter beginning last season carrying over into this. RJ finished his rookie year around 61%, and currently is at over 75%, while trending better than that over his last 5 games.
Tatum FTA's have fluctuated over his career, averaging 3.2 as a rookie, dipping to 2.9FTA in his 2nd season, peaking at 4.7FTA last year and 3.6FTA this season.
Ingram averaged 2.7 FTA as a rookie, 4.8 as a 2nd year player, then has averaged basically ~5+ FTA since.
RJ averaged 4.5FTA as a rookie, and is at 5.1FTA thus far this season.

3pt Shooting:
Like FT%, Tatum was excellent from the get-go, averaging 40+% over the course of his career. Ingram shot below 30% as a rookie, but has been 38%+ in 3 out of the last 4 years. RJ is by far the least evolved here. As a rookie, he shot 32% from 3, and endured a historically frigid stretch this season - he's been shooting well over his last 5, but in spite of this still sits at a .235%. (Poor 3pt shooting isn't a death sentence, even this aspect doesn't come together - Future HoFers Russell Westbrook and Dwyane Wade have had entire seasons where they shot WORSE!)

Assists:
Tatum has increased his assists each year, starting from 1.5 to 3.8 this season.
Ingram began with 2.1, and has averaged 4+apg for the past 2.
RJ started with 2.6, increasing to 3.5 this season.

Rebounding:
Tatum started at 5.0rpg as a rookie and has improved gradually - he's up to 7+rpg since last season.
Ingram averaged 4.0 as a rookie, but has averaged in the 5-6 range every year since.
RJ began with 5.5 and currently up to 7.3.

Steals and blocks:
Not much to look at here, none of these guys are exceptionally good at racking up steals or blocks. One thing to note (I'll need to see if I can find a datapoint for this), RJ doesn't usually end up credited with steals but when there's a deflection from a teammate, the ball often finds its way to his hands.

Its entirely possible RJ is at best 3rd option type guy on a top tier team and so be it. At least we are on a path to find out. Before we couldnt even evaluate these guys because the team was so dysfunctional.

SupremeCommander wrote:I keep reminding people that going into his draft year, he was the consensus #1 overall pick. Zion and Ja are better prospects, but it wasn't because RJ did something wrong, those guys just really blossomed in college

There was also speculation of RJ going second, Ja third though just talk. Point is RJ was a highly regarded prospect and is following through now.

A player I look at in that draft is Miami's Tyler Herro (average athleticism; hypothetically killer jumper). His numbers last year were generally similar to RJs last season, except with higher shooting percentages - plus Miami played in the bubble and went on a fantastic run to the finals. This year his raw numbers are extremely similar to RJ's so far: 17.6ppg, 6.7rpg, 3.8apg, 46.9% FG, 30.2% 3pt%, 76.5% FT.

Herro's a good player, but I expect RJ to overtake Herro soon, if not already. RJ's athleticism gives him higher defensive potential (he can handle bigger and faster players) and gives him more possibilities to get it done on the offensive end even if his perimeter shooting doesn't reach Herro's. Herro of course will improve his skills as well, but his body gives him a lower ceiling.

KnickDanger wrote:

SupremeCommander wrote:I keep reminding people that going into his draft year, he was the consensus #1 overall pick. Zion and Ja are better prospects, but it wasn't because RJ did something wrong, those guys just really blossomed in college

There was also speculation of RJ going second, Ja third though just talk. Point is RJ was a highly regarded prospect and is following through now.

Memphis was interested in RJ at 2 but he wouldn’t work out for them. 2 way wings always have more value than PGs or bigs.

technomaster wrote:I think there are 3 main vectors for draft picks - upside, floor, and bust potential. RJ, despite his main issues (under-developed shot; very good but not great athleticism) still looked like he had all-star upside, a high floor, and low bust potential. In my opinion, Morant was a surer thing than Zion - and injuries/conditioning will continue to hang over Zion.

A player I look at in that draft is Miami's Tyler Herro (average athleticism; hypothetically killer jumper). His numbers last year were generally similar to RJs last season, except with higher shooting percentages - plus Miami played in the bubble and went on a fantastic run to the finals. This year his raw numbers are extremely similar to RJ's so far: 17.6ppg, 6.7rpg, 3.8apg, 46.9% FG, 30.2% 3pt%, 76.5% FT.

Herro's a good player, but I expect RJ the overtake Herro soon, if not already. RJ's athleticism gives him higher defensive potential (he can handle bigger and faster players) and gives him more possibilities to get it done on the offensive end even if his perimeter shooting doesn't reach Herro's. Herro of course will improve his skills as well, but his body gives him a lower ceiling.

Herro is a better offensively player right now, but I’ll take barrett because he’s narrowing the gap offensively and he’s a much better defensive prospect.

GustavBahler wrote:

joec32033 wrote:Why is it only in NY players are crap if they aren't the best player in the league? It happens all the time.

To me RJ looks like a guy that can be a 1a on a playoff team but he isn't going to take you to a championship by himself, just like 99.99999% of the players in this league. Dude reminds me of a player in the Danny Granger/Paul Pierce/Paul George/Scottie Pippen mold. Pierce was a hall of famer and in his prime Granger was one of the top wings in the league. George was a top wing and Pippen was Pippin. All of these guys ranged from really good to great on playoff teams by themselves ,but the needed help to get to that next level. There is nothing wrong with that.

Guys like him are guys you hold onto because even the guys you would trade him for wouldn't get you to that next level by themselves.

So far I'm watching him initiate the offense more, play lockdown defense, improved shooting.
I can see him reach a 20-5-5 level. His rebounding is already there. His scoring is getting there and his passing is improved or at the very least more evident. You can count on one hand the number of players in this league whose presence gets you to a conference finals/nba finals appearance. LeBron is one. Durant is maybe another. Who else? RJ isn't the best player in the league. He probably isn't going to be but from the looks of his intangibles and the improvement curve I see, he can well be really damn good.

What makes a guys like Booker and Lavine so much better? They score 26, 27 points a game? Let's be honest, if we ever got them, in a week both guys would be one dimensional scoring machines that we would try and post trades for someone else.

Great Post. Believe RJ will make his share of All-Star games. As you wrote, Barrett cant do it alone. Bad reason to consider trading him so soon. When he's already showing so much. We need to add more promising players, not trade them away.

I want to go after Otto Porter this off-season. Perfect SF for this team. Great defender and shooter. Fits the team like a glove. Teams will struggle to score 100 against that lineup. We would be an elite PG away from causing a ton of problems for good teams. It looks like we are finally building an identity I hope we draft and sign players that further it.

Jmpasq wrote:
I want to go after Otto Porter this off-season. Perfect SF for this team. Great defender and shooter. Fits the team like a glove. Teams will struggle to score 100 against that lineup. We would be an elite PG away from causing a ton of problems for good teams. It looks like we are finally building an identity I hope we draft and sign players that further it.

Looks similar to Marcus Morris, only younger. If he comes at the same price, why not?

ESOMKnicks wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:
I want to go after Otto Porter this off-season. Perfect SF for this team. Great defender and shooter. Fits the team like a glove. Teams will struggle to score 100 against that lineup. We would be an elite PG away from causing a ton of problems for good teams. It looks like we are finally building an identity I hope we draft and sign players that further it.

Looks similar to Marcus Morris, only younger. If he comes at the same price, why not?

I have never seen Otto play and interesting target. And you are right, what price will be key

ESOMKnicks wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:
I want to go after Otto Porter this off-season. Perfect SF for this team. Great defender and shooter. Fits the team like a glove. Teams will struggle to score 100 against that lineup. We would be an elite PG away from causing a ton of problems for good teams. It looks like we are finally building an identity I hope we draft and sign players that further it.

Looks similar to Marcus Morris, only younger. If he comes at the same price, why not?

He’s a better fit than Morris because he doesn’t invade Randles space. Porter would be a great pickup.

Knixkik wrote:

ESOMKnicks wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:
I want to go after Otto Porter this off-season. Perfect SF for this team. Great defender and shooter. Fits the team like a glove. Teams will struggle to score 100 against that lineup. We would be an elite PG away from causing a ton of problems for good teams. It looks like we are finally building an identity I hope we draft and sign players that further it.

Looks similar to Marcus Morris, only younger. If he comes at the same price, why not?

He’s a better fit than Morris because he doesn’t invade Randles space. Porter would be a great pickup.

I just wonder what he will cost. He got a max deal last time. I would be against paying himwhat he gets now. He is the ultimate 3 and D wing.

Jmpasq wrote:

Knixkik wrote:

ESOMKnicks wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:
I want to go after Otto Porter this off-season. Perfect SF for this team. Great defender and shooter. Fits the team like a glove. Teams will struggle to score 100 against that lineup. We would be an elite PG away from causing a ton of problems for good teams. It looks like we are finally building an identity I hope we draft and sign players that further it.

Looks similar to Marcus Morris, only younger. If he comes at the same price, why not?

He’s a better fit than Morris because he doesn’t invade Randles space. Porter would be a great pickup.

I just wonder what he will cost. He got a max deal last time. I would be against paying himwhat he gets now. He is the ultimate 3 and D wing.

He clearly isn't getting max money again. I think $12-$15M is about right, but it only takes one desperate team to muck things up.

BigDaddyG wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:

Knixkik wrote:

ESOMKnicks wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:
I want to go after Otto Porter this off-season. Perfect SF for this team. Great defender and shooter. Fits the team like a glove. Teams will struggle to score 100 against that lineup. We would be an elite PG away from causing a ton of problems for good teams. It looks like we are finally building an identity I hope we draft and sign players that further it.

Looks similar to Marcus Morris, only younger. If he comes at the same price, why not?

He’s a better fit than Morris because he doesn’t invade Randles space. Porter would be a great pickup.

I just wonder what he will cost. He got a max deal last time. I would be against paying himwhat he gets now. He is the ultimate 3 and D wing.

He clearly isn't getting max money again. I think $12-$15M is about right, but it only takes one desperate team to muck things up.

$12?

Jerian Grant just got a 3 year $60M deal. Marcus Morris got 4 years @ $16M per. Gallo got $20M per. Bogdan Bogdanović $18M per.

You are not getting him at anything less than $17M per and $17M will be on the low side IMHO

martin wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:

Knixkik wrote:

ESOMKnicks wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:
I want to go after Otto Porter this off-season. Perfect SF for this team. Great defender and shooter. Fits the team like a glove. Teams will struggle to score 100 against that lineup. We would be an elite PG away from causing a ton of problems for good teams. It looks like we are finally building an identity I hope we draft and sign players that further it.

Looks similar to Marcus Morris, only younger. If he comes at the same price, why not?

He’s a better fit than Morris because he doesn’t invade Randles space. Porter would be a great pickup.

I just wonder what he will cost. He got a max deal last time. I would be against paying himwhat he gets now. He is the ultimate 3 and D wing.

He clearly isn't getting max money again. I think $12-$15M is about right, but it only takes one desperate team to muck things up.

$12?

Jerian Grant just got a 3 year $60M deal. Marcus Morris got 4 years @ $16M per. Gallo got $20M per. Bogdan Bogdanović $18M per.

You are not getting him at anything less than $17M per and $17M will be on the low side IMHO

martin wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:

Knixkik wrote:

ESOMKnicks wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:
I want to go after Otto Porter this off-season. Perfect SF for this team. Great defender and shooter. Fits the team like a glove. Teams will struggle to score 100 against that lineup. We would be an elite PG away from causing a ton of problems for good teams. It looks like we are finally building an identity I hope we draft and sign players that further it.

Looks similar to Marcus Morris, only younger. If he comes at the same price, why not?

He’s a better fit than Morris because he doesn’t invade Randles space. Porter would be a great pickup.

I just wonder what he will cost. He got a max deal last time. I would be against paying himwhat he gets now. He is the ultimate 3 and D wing.

He clearly isn't getting max money again. I think $12-$15M is about right, but it only takes one desperate team to muck things up.

$12?

Jerian Grant just got a 3 year $60M deal. Marcus Morris got 4 years @ $16M per. Gallo got $20M per. Bogdan Bogdanović $18M per.

You are not getting him at anything less than $17M per and $17M will be on the low side IMHO

Jmpasq wrote:

martin wrote:

BigDaddyG wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:

Knixkik wrote:

ESOMKnicks wrote:

Jmpasq wrote:
I want to go after Otto Porter this off-season. Perfect SF for this team. Great defender and shooter. Fits the team like a glove. Teams will struggle to score 100 against that lineup. We would be an elite PG away from causing a ton of problems for good teams. It looks like we are finally building an identity I hope we draft and sign players that further it.

Looks similar to Marcus Morris, only younger. If he comes at the same price, why not?

He’s a better fit than Morris because he doesn’t invade Randles space. Porter would be a great pickup.

I just wonder what he will cost. He got a max deal last time. I would be against paying himwhat he gets now. He is the ultimate 3 and D wing.

He clearly isn't getting max money again. I think $12-$15M is about right, but it only takes one desperate team to muck things up.

$12?

Jerian Grant just got a 3 year $60M deal. Marcus Morris got 4 years @ $16M per. Gallo got $20M per. Bogdan Bogdanović $18M per.

You are not getting him at anything less than $17M per and $17M will be on the low side IMHO

I think he will get 20 a year. He is worth it but that means we have to get our PG in this draft

If he gets $20 mill per, than that deal will have some heavy incentives or will be like two years.