Knicks · 2021 NBA Free Agency (and around the league): Preview and Primer (page 9)

I prefer Turner - his career 35% 3p fg% and elite rim protection.

He’s not perfect - few bigs are but I don’t trust Mitch to improve or stay healthy (kid is a nut job).

Why does the Heat keeping Dragic make people think they have pole position? I also don't get the "Toronto losing him for nothing" arguments. He is a UFA. TOR is going to want more assets from Miami then Dragic for sure. If Lowry wants to go to Miami, he is handing the keys back to Masai. If he demands 3 picks Precious, Duncan Robinson, and Nunn, what recourse do Lowry and Miami have? As a potential playoff opponent, why wouldn't he?

My interpretation of Miami and NOP pulling out of FA is that they don't think they have much of a chance to sign Lowry. With 25 million in cap space， they would at least have had some options; Lowry could have signed without a huge financial hit or they could trade guys to SAS，OKC， or NYC to open space. At least Riley would have options. Instead Riley gets to pitch offers to first Lowry then Masai. I'm not sure if Morey could find a better offer for Simmons then Lowry. Simmons is way better than Dragic (at least in the long term).

gradyandrew wrote:Why does the Heat keeping Dragic make people think they have pole position? I also don't get the "Toronto losing him for nothing" arguments. He is a UFA. TOR is going to want more assets from Miami then Dragic for sure. If Lowry wants to go to Miami, he is handing the keys back to Masai. If he demands 3 picks Precious, Duncan Robinson, and Nunn, what recourse do Lowry and Miami have? As a potential playoff opponent, why wouldn't he?

My interpretation of Miami and NOP pulling out of FA is that they don't think they have much of a chance to sign Lowry. With 25 million in cap space， they would at least have had some options; Lowry could have signed without a huge financial hit or they could trade guys to SAS，OKC， or NYC to open space. At least Riley would have options. Instead Riley gets to pitch offers to first Lowry then Masai. I'm not sure if Morey could find a better offer for Simmons then Lowry. Simmons is way better than Dragic (at least in the long term).

Woj has basically said Lowry is going to Miami without actually saying it (as the Heat would get in trouble for tampering), which is why he sent a clarifying tweet

EwingsGlass wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:

LivingLegend wrote:

martin wrote:

Javascript is not enabled or there was problem with the URL: https://twitter.com/TommyBeer/status/1421988729011453955?s=20

Click here to view the Tweet

The Turner for Mitch move is the one Ive been waiting on but wonder if Indy lost interest once they grabbed I Jackson in draft.

One issue Ive heard is Turner is not good on pick/roll or around basket but obviously can shoot with some range.

Would love to swap Mitch for Turner tbh - just dont trust Mitch in my stomach.

Heck no.

Myles Turner is heading into his 7th NBA season and has literally not improved dating back to his rookie season. Not one bit. And he's actually gotten worse.

2016 (2nd season):
14.5 Points, 7.3 Rebounds, 2.1 blocks, 1.3 Assists and 0.9 steals per game. FG% of .511% and 3PT% of .348%.

2020 (6th season):
12.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.4 blocks, 1.0 Assists and 0.9 steals per game. FG% of .477% and 3PT% of .335%.

No thank you.

Yeah this guy shoots 3 pointers and Mitchell Robinson attempted 0 3PT attempts last year but guess what? Myles Turner (thinks he's a 3PT shooter) absolutely STINKS @ shooting and his career average from 3PT range of only .352% doesn't lie and he shot even worse from 3 last year of 2020 @ only .335%.

Mitchell Robinson still has untapped potential but Myles Turner is completely maxed out and has not improved one bit over the years (he's getting worse).

Mitchell Robinson after only 3 years has a Player Efficiency Rating of 21.6.

Myles Turner after now 6 years has a Player Efficiency Rating of only 16.7.

I'd become absolutely DISGUSTED if we threw Mitchell Robinson away for "Myles Turner".

He's such a "DOMINANT" big man but yet his 1st 5 years in the league = 5x 1st round elimination(s) and his 6th year last season of 2020 = No playoffs.

Talk about overrated to the max and with no ability to improve, talk about Myles Turner (himself).

I believe you are looking at the wrong stats. You probably wouldn’t want Rudy Gobert on your team either. Turner leads the league in blocks per game and is pretty well regarded as one of the tougher man defenders in the league at C.

Turner is what we want Robinson to be. Robinson’s injury history draws into question whether he will remain healthy long term.

Comparing PER isn’t really fair. PER is highly skewed by usage rate and gets hammered by a low eFG. That is, Turner’s willingness to take a 3 or an 18 foot jumper hurts his PER. Barrett has a 13.9 PER after 2 years and most on this board wouldn’t trade him for anything.

Robinson booked a 70% FG% season by not taking shots more than 2 feet from the basket. That’s highly efficient and generally I would applaud that kind of efficiency for the Knicks, but this season his PER dropped not because he is a worse player or had a worse season, but because the box outs take a toll on PER because they do t show up in the money stats. So, Robinson drops rebounds to Randle and Barrett with his box out and he doesn’t get PER boost for it. Robinson’s PER goes down. Now he looks more like Turner. But lower money stats.

Doesn’t defeat the point. They are similar players at 16mm less for Robinson this year. I don’t see Turner as a trade for Robinson so much as a pairing that gives more similar coverage in the 10 man rotation.

I'm interested in Turner, the only thing that made me cautious was when someone pointed out: if the Pacers want to move him because he doesn't fit well next to Sabonis, why do we think he's going to fit well next to Randle? Genuine question- I don't know enough about him!

If Lowry goes to the Heat, what do the Pelicans pivot to? Schroeder?

smackeddog wrote:

gradyandrew wrote:Why does the Heat keeping Dragic make people think they have pole position? I also don't get the "Toronto losing him for nothing" arguments. He is a UFA. TOR is going to want more assets from Miami then Dragic for sure. If Lowry wants to go to Miami, he is handing the keys back to Masai. If he demands 3 picks Precious, Duncan Robinson, and Nunn, what recourse do Lowry and Miami have? As a potential playoff opponent, why wouldn't he?

My interpretation of Miami and NOP pulling out of FA is that they don't think they have much of a chance to sign Lowry. With 25 million in cap space， they would at least have had some options; Lowry could have signed without a huge financial hit or they could trade guys to SAS，OKC， or NYC to open space. At least Riley would have options. Instead Riley gets to pitch offers to first Lowry then Masai. I'm not sure if Morey could find a better offer for Simmons then Lowry. Simmons is way better than Dragic (at least in the long term).

Woj has basically said Lowry is going to Miami without actually saying it (as the Heat would get in trouble for tampering), which is why he sent a clarifying tweet

Right! Just about the same confirmation as Hield to the Lakers. It's certainly possible Lowry goes to Miami, I am just talking about the downside.

smackeddog wrote:If Lowry goes to the Heat, what do the Pelicans pivot to? Schroeder?

They can match for Lonzo and then trade him mid season.

Miami Heat

First round

2022: Own (if 1-14); Has the least favorable of Miami and Brooklyn (if own pick is 15-30)

2023: 1-14 Own; 15-30 to Oklahoma City

2024: 1-14 Own; 15-30 to Oklahoma City if not already settled

2025: 1-14 Own; 15-30 to Oklahoma City if not already settled

2026: To Oklahoma City if not already settled

2027: Own

2028: Own

Heat can trade a late 1st round pick next season and either 2027 or 2028. They also can flip Dragic O the Mavericks for an additional asset. Following the trade Miami would have 5 players under contract for 107 million. Since the roster needs 12 players, they need to reserve another 6 million or so. Since they are receiving Lowry， they are hard capped at 136, so Miami would have 23 million to fill out the remaining slots. Vet min players are about 1.8 million， so 6 vets would give them 12 million to match either Robinson or Nunn.

The Heat could extend DeRozan a 10 million dollar deal. In that case, they would have 19 million for 6 slots. but would only be able to fill out the roster with players on the minimum salary.

martin wrote:

Javascript is not enabled or there was problem with the URL: https://twitter.com/SBJLizMullen/status/1421975825142874114?s=20

Click here to view the Tweet

Thank God

EwingsGlass wrote:

NYKMentality wrote:

LivingLegend wrote:

martin wrote:

Javascript is not enabled or there was problem with the URL: https://twitter.com/TommyBeer/status/1421988729011453955?s=20

Click here to view the Tweet

The Turner for Mitch move is the one Ive been waiting on but wonder if Indy lost interest once they grabbed I Jackson in draft.

One issue Ive heard is Turner is not good on pick/roll or around basket but obviously can shoot with some range.

Would love to swap Mitch for Turner tbh - just dont trust Mitch in my stomach.

Heck no.

Myles Turner is heading into his 7th NBA season and has literally not improved dating back to his rookie season. Not one bit. And he's actually gotten worse.

2016 (2nd season):
14.5 Points, 7.3 Rebounds, 2.1 blocks, 1.3 Assists and 0.9 steals per game. FG% of .511% and 3PT% of .348%.

2020 (6th season):
12.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.4 blocks, 1.0 Assists and 0.9 steals per game. FG% of .477% and 3PT% of .335%.

No thank you.

Yeah this guy shoots 3 pointers and Mitchell Robinson attempted 0 3PT attempts last year but guess what? Myles Turner (thinks he's a 3PT shooter) absolutely STINKS @ shooting and his career average from 3PT range of only .352% doesn't lie and he shot even worse from 3 last year of 2020 @ only .335%.

Mitchell Robinson still has untapped potential but Myles Turner is completely maxed out and has not improved one bit over the years (he's getting worse).

Mitchell Robinson after only 3 years has a Player Efficiency Rating of 21.6.

Myles Turner after now 6 years has a Player Efficiency Rating of only 16.7.

I'd become absolutely DISGUSTED if we threw Mitchell Robinson away for "Myles Turner".

He's such a "DOMINANT" big man but yet his 1st 5 years in the league = 5x 1st round elimination(s) and his 6th year last season of 2020 = No playoffs.

Talk about overrated to the max and with no ability to improve, talk about Myles Turner (himself).

I believe you are looking at the wrong stats. You probably wouldn’t want Rudy Gobert on your team either. Turner leads the league in blocks per game and is pretty well regarded as one of the tougher man defenders in the league at C.

Turner is what we want Robinson to be. Robinson’s injury history draws into question whether he will remain healthy long term.

Comparing PER isn’t really fair. PER is highly skewed by usage rate and gets hammered by a low eFG. That is, Turner’s willingness to take a 3 or an 18 foot jumper hurts his PER. Barrett has a 13.9 PER after 2 years and most on this board wouldn’t trade him for anything.

Robinson booked a 70% FG% season by not taking shots more than 2 feet from the basket. That’s highly efficient and generally I would applaud that kind of efficiency for the Knicks, but this season his PER dropped not because he is a worse player or had a worse season, but because the box outs take a toll on PER because they do t show up in the money stats. So, Robinson drops rebounds to Randle and Barrett with his box out and he doesn’t get PER boost for it. Robinson’s PER goes down. Now he looks more like Turner. But lower money stats.

Doesn’t defeat the point. They are similar players at 16mm less for Robinson this year. I don’t see Turner as a trade for Robinson so much as a pairing that gives more similar coverage in the 10 man rotation.

Turner also gives us increased floor spacing because he actually takes and makes 3s. He’s averaged 33% from 3 last 2 years versus Mitch, who I love, he doesn’t even have 3 point stats for his career period

That said I’m suspicious as to why the pavers would trade Turner- especially within the conference. Does he have a lingering injury issue? Are they also demanding RJ as part of a package? It just seems unlike them unless Turner wants out of Indianapolis and I haven’t heard that

Yes, the Pacers would trade Turner, but it’s not that they want to get rid of him. In other words, he is available, but for the right package and he would probably cost a lot more than most here would give for him.

Jaren Jackson Jr is the dude to trade for if we can.

LivingLegend wrote:

martin wrote:

Javascript is not enabled or there was problem with the URL: https://twitter.com/TommyBeer/status/1421988729011453955?s=20

Click here to view the Tweet

The Turner for Mitch move is the one I’ve been waiting on but wonder if Indy lost interest once they grabbed I Jackson in draft.

One issue I’ve heard is Turner is not good on pick/roll or around basket but obviously can shoot with some range.

Would love to swap Mitch for Turner tbh - just don’t trust Mitch in my stomach.

By the same logic, we should bring Bobby Portis back and keep Mitch.

my final list (including trades) of people i think we can get and should target (i.e., i can see Lowry and CP3 helping this team but i don't think that will happen for a variety of reasons:
jackson -- more mature. can drive and shoot from outside 7' wingspan
duncan can run around and shoot,
rozier attacks the paint,
oubre soft spot for some reason 7' wingspan, plays with confidence,
powell not sure i know enough about him other than he can shoot, has long wingspan but is short (which can be a plus and minus),
maybe shroeder -- Plan C
maybe fournier -- plan c if we skunk out on duncan and oubre

day 1 type signing candidate would be someone like Duncan, giving a killer offer while Heat are preoccupied with Lowry.

No one in league history matched or exceeded Robinson's per-75-possession averages for points (13.4), rebounds (11.1) and blocks (3.3) through their age-22 seasons. And if you drop the criteria to 10, 10 and three, you add just eight names (including Gobert and Alonzo Mourning).

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2946...

This makes me think long and hard about getting someone other than a back up center.

gradyandrew wrote:

No one in league history matched or exceeded Robinson's per-75-possession averages for points (13.4), rebounds (11.1) and blocks (3.3) through their age-22 seasons. And if you drop the criteria to 10, 10 and three, you add just eight names (including Gobert and Alonzo Mourning).

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2946...

This makes me think long and hard about getting someone other than a back up center.

Everything you say is true. Its hard to tell whether his injury history is a pattern. So, it’s hard to define a backup C without considering it a frontline C.

Richaun Holmes looks like a good compromise to me. If we are striking out on the bigger names this offseason, I’d still be good with Schroeder, Oubre and Holmes with some of our core guys returning. I think we can upgrade over last year’s squad and maintain flexibility at the trade deadline.

Chandler wrote:
my final list (including trades) of people i think we can get and should target (i.e., i can see Lowry and CP3 helping this team but i don't think that will happen for a variety of reasons:
jackson -- more mature. can drive and shoot from outside 7' wingspan
duncan can run around and shoot,
rozier attacks the paint,
oubre soft spot for some reason 7' wingspan, plays with confidence,
powell not sure i know enough about him other than he can shoot, has long wingspan but is short (which can be a plus and minus),
maybe shroeder -- Plan C
maybe fournier -- plan c if we skunk out on duncan and oubre

day 1 type signing candidate would be someone like Duncan, giving a killer offer while Heat are preoccupied with Lowry.

Here's the thing，I will obviously be disappointed if we don't sign Lowry and DeRozan， but I still have enough faith in the front office to make the right moves. It's possible the Knicks could get 3 "18 million per" guys for 12 million， just because there looks to still be only 3 teams that can offer that much in FA.

My biggest hope is that unlike in previous seasons where the Knicks have broadcast their FA "plan" months in advance， we really have no idea what they are planning. Even the 19 pick trade to Charlotte seemed more about sowing doubt amongst the competition than anything else.

What I would Want

Sign Ball (20m)
Sign Duncan Robinson (18m)
Sign Richaun Holmes (12m)
Resign Bullock (go over)

What will Probably Happen

Sign Fournier (20m)
Sign D.Schroeder (18m)
Resign Noel (12m)
Resign Bullock (go over)

Not sure why we don't seem to have interest in Ball but are interested in Fournier who's seeking 20m annually as well. Ball is younger, plays solid defense, can be a primary ball handler or play off the ball...

Schroder's attitude is so bad he makes me wish for Reggie Jackson

Fournier for 20 i dont love (thought he was mid-high teens). What about a guy like Gary Trent JR?

I'm coming around to a) going for Ball, b) bring back Rose, c) Bring back Noel d) try to sign a shooting wing/SF. Not sure we can fit that all in the 53mm

jskinny35 wrote:What I would Want

Sign Ball (20m)
Sign Duncan Robinson (18m)
Sign Richaun Holmes (12m)
Resign Bullock (go over)

What will Probably Happen

Sign Fournier (20m)
Sign D.Schroeder (18m)
Resign Noel (12m)
Resign Bullock (go over)

Not sure why we don't seem to have interest in Ball but are interested in Fournier who's seeking 20m annually as well. Ball is younger, plays solid defense, can be a primary ball handler or play off the ball...

Schroder's attitude is so bad he makes me wish for Reggie Jackson

I don't think we should put too much stock in rumors. If you listen to rumors you will rue more than you thought.

VDesai wrote:Fournier for 20 i dont love (thought he was mid-high teens). What about a guy like Gary Trent JR?

I'm coming around to a) going for Ball, b) bring back Rose, c) Bring back Noel d) try to sign a shooting wing/SF. Not sure we can fit that all in the 53mm

Why Gary Trent JR though? Undersized SG who would be similar to Grimes, IQ, RJ.